But I am going to do this anyway. This is Write For California.

Cal’s next opponent, Wagner College, is in Staten Island, New York. The Wagner Seahawks are in their 99th season of football this year, but joined Division I-AA (FCS) back in 1993. Prior to that, they had a run of success in Division III, winning the Division III National Championship back in 1987. They made one FCS Playoff appearance back in 2012 (advancing to the second round), but have otherwise struggled in the FCS in recent years, and haven’t posted a winning season since 2016. They at one point held the ignominious record of the longest losing streak in the FCS with 26 straight losses, dating from September 28th, 2019 to October 21st, 2022. Since then, Wagner posted a couple of 4-win seasons (2023, 2024) and won 5 games last year (2025). They at least appear to be trending in the right direction.

Wagner is led by head coach Tom Masella, a Staten Island native and former defensive back at Wagner (1978-81) in the Wagner Athletics Hall of Fame. He served as the final head coach of Boston University before they dropped their football program in 1997 due to insurmountable financial deficits, as well as the head coach of Central Connecticut (where he led CCSU to two conference co-championships in his two years there) and Fordham (where he led them to a conference championship and FCS playoff appearance). Masella took over the head coaching job at Wagner in 2020, during that aforementioned losing streak, but has put together a 14-24 record since then (he’s currently 15-47 overall at Wagner). To be fair, I can’t imagine it being very easy to recruit players to a team that hadn’t won a game in 3 years.

I have to say though, I was a bit disappointed to see that Wagner appears to be overlooking Cal on their schedule:

Although after some further deliberation, they decided to follow through on their previous scheduling commitments:

I also have to point out that—although they lost last year’s star RB Andre Hines Jr. to graduation—they did have some DeSean Jackson moments last season:

Luckily for Wagner, the NEC doesn’t have quite the same level of replay reviews as the ACC does, so this actually stood as a touchdown, so Hines Jr. was robbed of his true DJax moment.

Because I am all kinds of thorough, here is the 2026 Wagner depth chart I’ve compiled:

Please note that (1) I don’t have Wagner injury news, so I can only guess that some players (e.g. OL Dollhopf, DB Parks Jr., etc) may be injured and have moved them down (but not off) the depth chart, and (2) FCS teams will throw all sorts of new players in against FBS matchups just to get guys experience, so all this painstaking work may be for naught. Further, (3) the depth chart in the Wagner media guide is full of lies, which is why I ended up making my own. I half-suspect that the media guide depth chart order is to either reward good practice performances, or to confuse opponents and/or media. I am positive that I saw defensive #1 Shamar Williams on the depth chart for kick returns, but he was replaced by offensive #1 Zion Fowler-El last week against JMU. Fowler-El muffed a punt last week, but it was then incorrectly attributed to Williams. Not hard to see how that happens. And if you take a look at Wagner's roster online, you’ll see a lot of players with no numbers, and those players will periodically be swapped into the numbered roster. I remember writing down the names of all of the kickers (and trying to guess who was 1st, 2nd, 3rd string). Somehow I missed #8 K Giovanni Bernardo (probably because he didn’t have a number a week ago), and he was listed as potentially the starting kicker against JMU (Wagner managed one FG, but it was not Bernardo).

But I digress. Hopefully this is still useful.

Wagner’s offensive coordinator is Terence Sino, a former offensive lineman at Colgate (‘17), who has worked his way up from Offensive Line and Tight Ends coach at Wagner to now entering his second season as the Wagner OC. Perhaps not surprisingly, Wagner ran a heavy run-game scheme last year.

Offensive line

The offensive line underwent a major shift this season, with almost the entire starting offensive line from last year transferring out: LG Mateo Lucero (Tennessee Tech), OC Brady Anderson (graduation), RG Devan Taylor (UAlbany), RT Prinz Guitian (Indiana State). It’s notable that—while talented FCS players will always transfer—a lot of these are just lateral moves, and it’s the only position group on the team decimated by transfers.

The new center was expected to be Maximilian Dollhopf, a transfer from Santa Monica City College, who before that played football at various levels in Germany (including the U-19 German national team). The true freshman Trevor Winters has played his way into the starting center job instead:

Although Winters was the starting center in the first two games this season, true freshman AJ Cartusciello got the start last week at JMU.

The current starting offensive line, as of the JMU game: LT Malik Wilson (#72), LG Tyler James (#63), OC AJ Cartusciello (#60), RG James Aldrich (#73), RT Ryan Long (#54). Aldrich and Long swapped guard and tackle roles; Long got the start at right tackle against JMU. The only other unknown for me is that OL Mike Seeger received significant playing time at the tackle position last year, but I haven’t seen him at all this season, while true freshmen linemen are receiving playing time. I am not sure if he is hurt or if Wagner is just experimenting along the offensive line.

Even though most of the offensive line from last year transferred out, they weren’t particularly impressive before that anyway. In particular, the tackles (and quite a few of them rotated in and out) often lacked lateral quickness and frequently lost to speed rushes to the outside, giving up 29 sacks on the season. Former backups Tyler James and Malik Wilson have found their way into consistent starting roles this season, and I will say that I have seen some good run blocking plays from Wilson this year. Most of the following clips are perhaps unfair to use (as many of these players aren’t at Wagner anymore), but I just want to establish the trend:

RG James Aldrich has had some significant struggles so far this season, and he seems to be a target for opposing defenses. Caleb Bryant has played one game so far this season:

Bryant:

Guitian (now Indiana State) and Seeger:

Seeger:

Seeger:

Tyler James has performed well so far this season, but he’s since been moved inside to guard:

While Wagner does have some big bodies up front, they have struggled with quickness.

Quarterback

As previously mentioned, I did the vast majority of this article in the off-season. I watched Wagner’s entire 2025 season and the first game of this season in which the starting quarterback was Jack Stevens (minus the few games he lost to injury last year) and so I had this entire QB section finished before Wagner decided to shake things up and named redshirt freshman QB Benjamin Newman the starter instead. Newman originally got the start in the second game of the year against Southern Connecticut State due to an injury to Jack Stevens (which will make sense when you see Stevens’s style of play), but he played very well and earned the starting job for last week’s game against James Madison. I am not completely sure who the starter will be (the depth charts in Wagner’s media guides have been less than truthful), so I will assume that Newman is the starter, and I have relegated my Jack Stevens write-up to a skippable “Backup Quarterback?” section below. But, you know, it’s not like Newman had a great game against James Madison last week, so who knows if Stevens gets another shot.

I originally intended to only briefly mention the backup QB Benjamin Newman (who played just a couple snaps in 2025 as a true freshman):

But Benjamin Newman got the start in the second game of the year this season against Southern Connecticut State in place of an injured Jack Stevens. 2 games into the season, Newman was already halfway to Steven’s 2025 passing yards. After his third game last week against JMU, Newman is now 70% of the way to Stevens’s 2025 passing total. To completely oversimplify things, think of Stevens as Nico Iamaleava, and Newman as Steve Angeli.

Last year Newman still looked green:

But he looked calm and in control of the offense in his first start this year, and finally added a true passing threat to the Wagner offense:

And here he steps up in the pocket and makes a nice read:

Here Newman places this ball where only his receiver can get it:

Newman also showed his ability to make a throw on the run:

And here he showed some nice toughness, hanging in the pocket to make the throw even though he was about to get blown up:

Although he did let his throwing mechanics break down a bit at times:

Wagner played a lot of backups in the second half of the JMU game, including QB Cristian Pinto and QB Jason Wiley, mainly to hand the ball off and bleed clock. The other young quarterbacks might not be ready for the big time:

Backup Quarterback?

Wagner was not a team that was effective in throwing the ball last season. The starting quarterback for most of last season (besides a few games missed due to injury) was Jack Stevens, who posted 537 passing yards (60 ypg), 2 TDs, and 8 INTs in 9 games last season. Stevens had only one game in which he threw for over 100 yards (@Georgetown, 15/24, 128 passing yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs). However, QB Jack Stevens was an effective addition to the run game. For a more recent analogy: picture Nico Iamaleava, except not, you know, a 6’5” 5-star recruit. Stevens was a 3-star recruit in high school, and his high school highlights were more impressive than any throws I saw him make at Wagner, so the talent is definitely there.

As it stands, however, Stevens is much more of a threat on the ground, and he will run the ball often:

Stevens shows some power in his runs:

And here he shows some nice speed on the ground:

Here he weaves his way through traffic, showing that he has pretty good vision as a runner:

The most Nico-like thing about him is how often he’d run the ball even in typical passing downs:

Here Stevens punishes the defense for crashing down on the RB:

While Stevens isn’t throwing the ball too much, he has shown the ability to make some decent throws. This one isn’t a great read as he doesn’t see his receiver open downfield, but he fits it into a tight window for his intended receiver:

I didn’t see a ton of touch throws (more of a tendency to zip it), but here’s one he layered nicely over the defense:

Stevens isn’t afraid to stand in the pocket and deliver:

And here Stevens again shows some nice touch on this throw:

Stevens will obviously use his feet to extend plays, and so he will often throw on the run. Here he fires one in to his receiver:

Here Stevens does a nice job of sensing where the pressure is coming from so that he can step up in the pocket to make the throw:

However, not all his throws are on-target:

This one he throws too hot behind his running back on the checkdown:

Here Stevens locks onto his first read and is inaccurate on the throw:

Stevens has a bad habit of throwing across his body (because of how often he rolls out of the pocket), but in my view he doesn’t really have the arm strength to make throws like this work:

Another example on a poor read:

Another bad decision, this time throwing under pressure and into traffic deep down the field:

Wagner did not have a lot of success with the downfield passing attack:

And again, but this one he is smartly bailed out by his receiver:

This one’s not really his fault, but it’s one of the few examples I saw of Stevens trying to throw it deep instead of running it himself:

Again he locks onto his first read, and doesn’t make a very good throw anyway:

I have no idea who will start against Cal, but the two quarterbacks are very different and probably require very different defensive gameplans.

Running back

Much of the Wagner offensive gameplan in 2025 revolved around the run game. They were anchored by a strong power back in Boston College transfer Andre Hines Jr., who led the team with 809 total rushing yards. With Hines Jr. gone this year, Wagner will be looking to his backups, Matt Morad and Sekou Kamau, to make big leaps forward this year to fill the void Hines Jr. leaves behind. While both runners have decent speed (and similar size), Kamau is more of a finesse back while Morad is looking to level someone:

Morad has shown good vision and a good understanding of where his blocks will develop:

Morad has decent speed:

Morad is probably not going to hit homeruns, but he can pick up chunk yardage:

Morad generally runs with a lot of straight line speed and looks to lower his shoulder, but he can shake tackles too:

Here Morad shows some of that power:

Morad will run through ankle tackles:

The next clip doesn’t really have a point, I’ve just never seen someone gain so many yards while airborne before:

Wagner will also use their running backs as safety valves and will occasionally line their running backs up at receiver positions:

Wagner will also incorporate a lot of motion to see if they can get favorable matchups on their backs in space:

In contrast to Morad’s hard-nosed style, Sekou Kamau will often find his running lanes and elude opposing defenders in space:

Kamau shows a lot of patience when he runs, looking to hit the hole hard, but he can also break some tackles:

Here Kamau again finds his way into open space:

And here Kamau does a nice job of letting his blocks develop to find his way through traffic:

Here Kamau makes a nice cut to avoid the tackle:

Here Kamau decisively hits the hole and uses his momentum to carry defenders forward:

And here is some of that finesse I was mentioning earlier:

Like Morad, Kamau will also be used as a pass-catching back out of the backfield:

And again:

This wasn’t the greatest throw, but Kamau is a little more susceptible to drops than Morad:

Apparently both Morad and Kamau were hurt last week against JMU, so a lot of new faces had touches against JMU. I don’t really have strong opinions here given their limited play time, but sophomore Uriah Moats-Maynard showed some flashes:

Relieving Moats-Maynard was the junior RB Andrew Ransome:

Obviously Wagner’s offensive line had their hands full with James Madison last week, but Wagner was sorely missing Morad and Kamau’s ability to create some of their own yards and to catch passes in space. If Wagner only has backup running backs ready to go, they may abandon the run game entirely with Newman.

Receivers

The receivers group is pretty much the only position (offense or defense) where Wagner returns most of its talent, including its top three receiving targets last year: Jeremiah Colclough, Malik Redd, and Teree McDonald. However, there are also a couple of new transfers (from FBS programs) that I think will also make an impact this year.

The singular most important player in this game is the 5-star Ohio State wide receiver transfer WR Darryl VonStickyhands. After struggling to get snaps in a crowded receiver room at Ohio State, he made the transfer to Wagner where he expects to see immediate playing time.

Here we can see the impressive display of athleticism that made VonStickyhands such a highly-recruited player coming out of high school:

VonStickyhands has impressive speed, and combined with his large frame and catch radius, it makes him a very difficult receiver to cover:

If VonStickyhands is healthy and able to play this Saturday, his impact would be immediate and pose an enormous challenge to the Cal defense.

However, currently leading the team in receptions in the opening few weeks is a different FBS transfer: former Pitt WR Zion Fowler-El. Fowler-El looks to be the clear #1 target for QB Benjamin Newman, and Fowler-El has three times as many catches as the next leading receiver. Fowler-El saw some limited action at slot receiver in some Pitt blowouts, such as this play against an absolutely abysmal defense:

There aren’t a ton of huge pass play highlights so far in the opening weeks, but Fowler-El has made a lot of catches on short- to intermediate-routes, and seems to be the first receiver the quarterback is generally looking for:

The player I expect to grow into a bigger role this year (and is currently the second leading receiver, behind Fowler-El) after showing a lot of promise in his freshman season is the now-sophomore WR Malik Redd, the speedy 5’9” receiver who can make some explosive plays:

Wagner may also lean on Redd’s speed in the run game as well:

Here Redd does a good job of picking up some extra yards after contact:

And Redd also had some nice catches despite tight coverage as well:

The leading returning receiver is another 5’9” speedster, WR Jeremiah Colclough:

Colclough will similarly use his speed to try to get open in open space:

Colclough also showed plenty of sure-handedness, which made him a reliable target last year:

Wagner will run a lot of screens (and stacked WR formations) to allow their receivers to create some space on quick-hitting passes:

Here Colclough makes a nice over the shoulder catch in the corner of the endzone on this one, which is tough to defend:

And here Colclough is again showing why he was often a safety-valve for some less-than-stellar QB play last year:

The other receiver that Wagner often targeted last year is WR Teree McDonald, who has also made some big plays:

Wagner really loves their jet sweeps:

Here McDonald again makes a big play after the catch:

And here he also creates his own yards:

Also finding himself in a bigger role this year is Karlos Grier, who has worked his way into the starting rotation after mainly playing special teams last year:

Another player I thought I’d see more of this year (no idea if he’s hurt or not; good luck finding Wagner injury news online) is Richard Perkins Jr., due to his larger frame and catch radius (in contrast to most of the other receivers in the rotation that have been used interchangeably, in case you didn’t notice any patterns in the above clips):

Having good hands is important for Wagner receivers:

Probably the most experienced receiver on the team is 5th year WR Derek Burrell:

Burrell was an early favorite target of QB Jack Stevens, although he fell on the depth chart later in the season:

Although I am not sure why, he performed well when he played:

Wagner doesn’t have a lot of big pass plays though, so this probably didn’t help:

Probably the only trick play I saw out of that super common jet sweep play Wagner always runs:

A player I think might have more of an impact that some of the receivers I listed is the tight end, Christopher Harris. Here he is blocking:

And again:

(I thought this was going to be a bigger deal initially because of how much Wagner moves the pocket and runs the ball with QB Jack Stevens).

I also thought this play sequence was interesting, although I can’t tell how much of it is intentional or not. Here Harris misses on the block:

But on the very next play, it looks like Harris is going to be responsible for at least a chip block here, but he instead slips past the defender to get open for the pass:

Wagner didn’t involve their tight ends too much in the passing game, it was usually as a tendency-breaking play:

TE Johan Bars isn’t targeted very often, but that hasn’t stopped him from making some catches:

The third-string tight end, Vincent Cajano III, has mainly contributed so far by baiting the opposing team into penalties. This is actually not the only clip I have of him being grabbed and tossed by his facemask for a penalty on the other team:

Expect to see a lot of quick-hitting passing concepts, screens, stacked WR formations, and creative motions to try and scheme these receivers open.

Conclusion

Although Cal has historically played some of the tougher FCS squads (e.g. UC Davis in 2018/2024 and Sacramento State in 2021 were teams that went to the FCS playoffs and definitely gave Cal a scare), I think it’s unlikely that Wagner will be heading to the FCS playoffs this year, so please shake off your Cal vs FCS trauma. Wagner will be at a significant talent disadvantage, and this is a game where you want to see the players deeper on your depth chart to have significant snaps and game experience. Wagner was blown out last week 87-3 by James Madison, but that was an incredibly disrespectful game by JMU. Miami also played an outmatched FCS team last week, but they had their 4th string players in by halftime, and they agreed to a shortened 10 minute 4th quarter with a running clock. James Madison, on the other hand, kept the full time, and was still throwing the ball with under 2 minutes left in the game. JMU ran the score up on purpose and it was incredibly poor sportsmanship, and I frankly lost a lot of respect for them. I see why JMU tried to run up the score in garbage time of games last year (to impress a playoff committee they knew wouldn’t watch them) but I don’t see how winning 87-3 is any better than 57-3 or something. Although I hope Cal finds their offensive stride and works out the kinks in the offense, I really hope they don’t win by 80+ points.

Go Bears.

You can find my full clips here.

Welcome back to The Good, the Bad, and the Rockfights, our weekly exercise in condensing the previous game’s data into one of four types of Cal football games. Under our new data overlords at BCF Toys, all our measures capture some aspect of how well the offense moves the ball or how well the defense stops the ball from moving. These measures tend to capture: productivity of moving the ball (i.e. total distance covered), efficiency in moving the ball, and ability to turn drives into scoring attempts. In contrast to the subjective player ratings that we used with PFF’s data, there is a comforting level of objectivity in our new data. Drives are generally easily quantifiable across multiple dimensions, and assessing any single drive is fairly straightforward…or so I thought until Syracuse’s first drive of the fourth quarter.

That fourth-quarter drive was a masterpiece in utter chaos. 16 plays, 1 interception called back by penalty, 1 lost fumble called back by penalty, 3 near-interceptions, and a drive-ending field goal that bounced off the upright. It was spectacular. Glorious. A master-class in absurdism that I have not seen since the Cheez It Bowl. And as much as I appreciate the objectivity of our new drive-based data, no set of measures could adequately capture what we witnessed on that drive. That drive was neither math nor numbers; that drive was art.

Fortunately, there were 22 other drives that could be more adequately represented with BCF Toys’ measures, and our goal is to make sense of the rest of the game (although absurdity reigns because the outcome is something we have never seen in this series, so maybe sensemaking is futile here).

Ratings Comparison

We begin with the offense, whose ratings we illustrate below with boxplots. Recall that boxplots capture the spread of the data, with the box capturing the spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles while the horizontal line represents the midpoint of the data.

Offense

Across the board it was a bad day for the offense. Game Rating and Efficiency capture very similar measures: a starting-position-adjusted measure of expected scoring. The primary difference is that Game Rating is opponent-adjusted. These both tell us that Cal had a woeful scoring rate when accounting for where their drives started. Points per drive is somehow even worse, a reflection of Cal’s 10 points on 11 drives. Scoring rate captures the proportion of drives ending in TDs or field goal attempts (whether a miss or a make), so Cal’s missed field goal gives that measure a slightly higher rating than points per drive. Yards per play was the highest rating of the game, thanks to a handful of explosive plays. But Cal’s inability to accumulate the yards needed to score the ball led to a woeful Available Yards rating. That is six measures and too many words to say that Saturday’s offense was a disaster.

Defense

Defensively, things were better, although results were mixed. The Game Rating is perfectly middling, while Defensive Efficiency was pretty good (although that score is somewhat inflated by the poor quality of Syracuse’s offense). Points per drive was quite good, aided by the defense’s ability to force Syracuse into field goal attempts that they happily missed. Success rate suffered a bit, as Cal allowed Syracuse many scoring opportunities. And Yards Per Play and Available Yards were roughly middling, indicating that Cal allowed Syracuse to move the ball moderately well. In sum, that is a strong profile of a bend-but-don’t-break defense: give up yards, but limit scoring.

Special Teams

This was generally a favorable set of ratings for the Bears, although this is likely a reflection of the ratings punishing Syracuse rather than rewarding Cal.

Ratings Clusters

I took our seventeen ratings and fed them into a clustering algorithm. Based on the combination of woeful offense, decent defense, and reasonable special teams, I was expecting this one to fall into the realm of the Rockfights. I was wrong. I was so very wrong.

The Bad! The Bad?! I don’t disagree with the classification, because this was not a good performance. But I am absolutely astonished because this is the first time we have ever seen a win in The Bad. Cal has 56 games classified in The Bad—all losses. It makes sense that the vast majority of games in The Bad will be losses, but it took 56 Bad games to eke out a win? Either Cal is horrifically unlucky, or utterly unable to overcome poor play. Or Both.

One caveat to note is that these clusters are ever-evolving groups. As more and more data enter the plot, the boundaries of the clusters tend to change slightly over time. Since this game is on the edge of The Bad, it may flip into a Rockfight at some point in the future. But for now, take a moment to bask in the highly improbable.

Deja Vu

I’m adding a new section to these pieces: after each game I will go through every single game in our database and rank them from most similar to least similar to the game we just watched (I calculate similarity based on Euclidean Distance between this game and all previous games in the data). And then we’ll highlight the recent game’s doppelganger.

Despite 20 seasons of data, we do not have to go very far back to find the game most similar to this one. It’s another midday ACC matchup featuring a blue and orange team: Cal vs. Virginia in 2025. As you might expect, that one was very similar to this: Cal was outgained by about 200 yards, Cal fell behind by double-digits early in the game before repeatedly pulling within three points, Cal also went 3-for-12 on third down, and the Bears lost the time-of-possession battle by about 10 minutes. That game also featured many, many punts and some excruciating stretches of football by both teams. One fifteen-minute stretch featured this woeful stretch of possessions: punt, punt, punt, missed FG, punt, turnover-on-downs, punt, punt. And, critically, this game was decided by turnovers as Cal tossed a red zone pick in the final minute of the 3rd and the game-sealing pick-six in the final minute of the game. Those made the difference as Cal lost a frustrating, we-could-have-won-that kind of game that Syracuse fans have been lamenting for the past several days. Better them than us.

Finally, a quick programming note: FEI, whose data underlies BCF Toys’ ratings, does not evalute FBS-FCS games. So we will not have any data from the Wagner game. Not that the game would be very interesting, because this team is bad. I’m talking, bad bad. See you in two weeks after Clemson. Go Bears.

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Florida A&M - 7 Miami (Miami wins 77-7)

Piotr T Le - Miami did what Miami does, no new info here.

Callie Wake - Boring game. Miami showed off they’re Miami.

Christopher Helling - Miami was unstoppable all the way down to their 4th string players (or true freshmen), finishing 77-0 Miami at the end of the 3rd quarter, and the teams played an abbreviated 4th quarter. Miami also had a record 856 yards of offense, and their one misstep was a 4th string player getting stripped for a fumble return TD.

Villanova - 24 Louisville (Louisville wins 59-13)

Callie Wake - Louisville won as expected, but surprised they didn’t hang more on nova

Norfolk State - 25 Virginia (Virginia wins 59-3)

Piotr T Le - Miami did what Miami does, no new info hereVirginia will continue to mash people’s faces into the ground.

Callie Wake - Virginia was being nice, they could’ve won by way more

Christopher Helling - Virginia is an efficient, well-balanced offense, while the defense was mostly bend but not break. NSU had more success than I would have expected (this game felt less lopsided than Clemson-LSU) but couldn’t finish drives. UVA mainly rushed 4 and had good coverage behind it, and NSU QBs didn’t have much success throwing the ball. The NSU run game was shut down as well (under 2 yards/rush), while UVA just played vanilla football and kept scoring. 3 NSU turnovers didn’t help.

Richmond - NC State (NC State wins 73-0)

Callie Wake - NC State won as expected.

Christopher Helling - Richmond is supposed to be a good FCS team, usually in the FCS playoffs (4 of the last 5 years), but this was a blowout. NCSU set program records for rush yards in a game (428), rush TDs (8), total yards (734), and had the most TDs since 1919 (10) and most points since 1936 (73). There were a lot of missed tackles by Richmond that turned normal runs into explosive 40+ yard runs, and terrible coverage for easy completions to wide open receivers. The only negative for NCSU this game was that NCSU WR Victor Snow muffed two punts, and lost one for a turnover. Yet to be seen if Richmond is not as good as they were, or if FCS schools can’t compete in the modern NIL era.

Rutgers - Boston College (Boston College wins 28-21)

Piotr T Le - Rutgers, you are now the worst team in the P4. Rutgers is also 0-2 against the football powerhouse state of Massachusetts.

Callie Wake - Finally, and interesting game. This one was uuuuuuugly! Not as bad as the UMass game last week, but definitely one of the two games in the ACC where neither team wanted to win.

Nick Kranz - The kind of game that fills you with ACC pride.

18 Tennessee - Georgia Tech (Georgia Tech loses 24-45)

Piotr T Le - Rough game for GTech who is face tanking a season where their OC and DC have left with the former taking the QB in waiting with him to Florida.

Callie Wake - Alberto Mendoza I’m glad we never went after you. This one was ugly from the start. Tennessee had GTech’s number from play one. Mendoza looked rattled for a lot of the game, and the Volunteers defense took advantage.

Nick Kranz - There were some signs that Haynes King was papering over plenty of issues at Georgia Tech and it’s looking more and more like this season (and the program generally) are going in a rough direction.

East Tennessee State - UNC (UNC wins 35-3)

Piotr T Le - Bill B is 2-0 for the first time since 2019!

Callie Wake - As expected, UNC won. Hard to believe there’s a real future where UNC starts the season 3-0.

Old Dominion - Virginia Tech (Virginia Tech wins 44-21)

Callie Wake - While closer than expected, this one was never in doubt for VTech.

Christopher Helling - The biggest factor in this game was probably the dominance by the VT defensive line, who ended up sacking ODU QB Quinn Henicle 7 times (not to mention all the fumbles they forced, with 3 first half fumbles as VT shot out to a 34-6 lead at halftime). Henicle is apparently a good runner, and he started to find some success on the ground by the time VT had some backups in for the defense. QB Ethan Grunkemeyer relied pretty heavily on his tight ends this game, as VT’s run game didn’t find much success. ODU’s WR Josh Rodriguez and S Lucas Struck were pretty impressive, though.

Nick Kranz - Some early proof of tangible progress for Tech under James Franklin to basically flip last year’s result against ODU, but I’m much more interested to see if the Hokies can defeat September Maryland next week.

Wake Forest - Purdue (Wake Forest wins 38-36 in 2OT)

Piotr T Le - ACC > Big 10, many people are saying this. Also Wake Forest’s HC Dickert will be a hot name in the coaching carousel come this coming off-season.

Callie Wake - Easily game of the week. Despite being bottom level teams in their respective conferences, Wake Forest and Purdue fought with true honor. Despite having the lead at the half, the Demon Deacons squandered opportunities and stalled on drives, resulting in just 6 points in the final 2 quarters. The overtime heroics make this one an instant classic.

Here’s some nifty trivia: The Boilmakers picked up 329 yards from the arm of Ryan Browne in the loss to Wake Forest.

Christopher Helling - WF almost choked this game away, leading 23-13 and letting Purdue back in the game with bad offensive play calling (burned 14 seconds late in the 4th quarter throwing 3 straight times with 3 minutes left in the game with the lead, not even making Purdue burn timeouts). WF was getting pressure on 4-man rushes and gave QB Ryan Browne a hard time for most of the game, but the defense was worn down by the end and RB Fame Ijeboi kept having success on the ground as WF struggled to tackle him, and Purdue went from 23-13 to tie the game 23-23 to send the game to OT. QB Gio Lopez came in with some clutch runs in OT to will his team to victory, 38-36 WF.

Nick Kranz - A 23-23 tie at the end of regulation feels about right for this kind of game. Wake was able to escape by running Gio Lopez a ton, but it’s hard seeing this offense doing much against more credible opposition.

UCF - Pitt (Pitt wins 12-7)

Piotr T Le - On the surface the score is disappointing for the Pitt Panthers after last week, however, they did play in conditions equivalent to playing in a Monsoon in Vietnam, so I will give them a pass here.

Callie Wake - The other game where neither team wanted to win.

Nick Kranz - I was laughing at Pitt 59 points to 12 (including a safety) but I guess this game was wacky due to weather and Pitt’s pretty reliant on Mason Heintschel’s arm, so let’s wait until Thursday’s game against Syracuse before making any assumptions about what Pitt can do against ACC competition.

Duke - Illinois (Duke wins 31-27)

Piotr T Le - ACC > Big 10, many people are saying this. Nate Sheppard is a dude.

Nick Kranz - Duke was decimated in the portal and probably isn’t very talented . . . but the schedule stacks up such that they could easily be 6-0 before a trip to Virginia in late October.

Georgia Southern - Clemson (Clemson wins 22--7)

Piotr T Le - Dabo is not having a great time, the game was much closer than the score indicates.

Callie Wake - Don’t let the score fool you, Clemson had a 9 point lead going into the 4th quarter. I swear I thought Dabo was having a stroke because of how mad he was. Ga Sou played really well for a sun belt team, keeping the score very close with crucial defensive stops all night. The only problem was Clemson’s defense was just good enough to keep GaSou away from scoring. Clemson looks beatable, especially with their starting QB going down during the game. Hopefully their freshman backup isn’t Caleb Williams.

Christopher Helling - QB Tait Reynolds started to get more snaps as a potential starter. GS had no rush offense, and while QB Max Johnson could pass well, they couldn’t complete passes when they mattered most. Neither team ran the ball well, but Clemson shut down the GS offense better.

Nick Kranz - Georgia Southern isn’t, like, the *worst* non-power program out there, but scoring just one touchdown and failing to put the game away until the 4th quarter says nothing positive about Clemson - and the backup QB who had to come in after starter Tait Reynolds went down was 4-7 with just 19 yards, so monitor that situation closely.

UC Davis - 17 SMU (SMU wins 56-10)

Callie Wake - NO AGGIES NO!!!! NOT LIKE THIS!!!!! My boys, they massacred my boys!!!! lol. Yeah that wasn’t a good game for Davis but it was within expectations. We scored more points than I thought we would, which is something promising. SMU on the other hand, won as expected, and maintain their status as the top Mustang.

Any other thoughts on the teams?

Piotr T Le - ACC is Miami and Virginia look to be the best two teams in the conference. Former due the weight of talent, latter due to the literal weight and heft of their OL.

Nick Kranz - The ACC has played 8 games against FCS competition and won all eight by an average margin of 51 points. Sadly, I think this says much more about the growing gap between levels of football than it does about the relative quality of the ACC. There’s just nothing interesting to say about these kinds of games any more.

Read more

This week we’re going to do a deep dive on the Wagner College, a real place. Seeing as how pretty much none of us knew anything about this place before the schedule announcement back in January 2025, it’s finally time to learn just how bright and beautiful this world is.

Hot Dog

Hot Dog. You know, I figured being headquartered in Staten Island that there’d be atleast one hot dog stand like, right there on campus, but apparently not! The nearest Hot Dog Stand/Restaurant is Skippy’s Hot Dogs! Over 10,000 hot dogs away! Top Dog wins again at only 1,000 bun lengths from campus to the Durant location. An important stat to monitor come Saturday, namely how long the line will be.

Distance to Nearest Zoo Black Bear

The Bears have a solid showing this week, beating out Wagner just barely in the distance to the nearest Black Bear, which locally is the Oakland Zoo, but to Wagner College is the Bronx Zoo, a staggering 13,271.35 bear lengths away. He does look very relaxed and if Cal ever goes to Wagner to play it might be worth a trip to the Bronx Zoo.

People Writing About Wagner College

This next post is a sponsored post from Write for California! Christopher H has been dutifully scouting Wagner College Football for Write for California for way longer than any sane or rational person should I believe as of press time, we estimated his post, inclusive of pictures and images clocks in right around 24 pages. That’s basically a kids picture book! But we here at Wurster Hall care about the stats!

Looking deep into the analytics now, Christopher_H wrote an impressive 6,366 words combined in the Offensive and Defensive Previews which will drop later this week. Meanwhile, the entire Wagner College Wikipedia Entry is 1,911 total words. Impressive Christopher_H!

The Hat Man

Now for the real stats. This past week, I attended the Write For California away game watch party at Headlands with my kid. Because I was on campus with them, we had to visit the student store which left me awestruck at the total volume of hats available, which then led me to another interesting statistic. According to the new Barnes and Noble Student Store, Cal has an impressive 146 hats available for your beautiful noggin. Meanwhile, the Official Wagner student store only has 36. What a bummer. This should factor into Saturday’s performance and could very well be the final score of the game.

Wait, How Many QBs Are On That Roster?

Well, that was wonderful. Good time was had by all, I'm pooped.

Yes, I should be---GOOD LORD, what is happening on that roster?

Thanks to Twitter User justthebears who noticed that Wagner College, somehow, someway, has 11 total QBs rostered according to the school website. Which is impressive! I didn’t realize you could have that many QBs on the roster. You know what they say, if you have 11 QBs, you don’t have 1. I think I just counted 157 people on the roster? What the hell is going on on Staten Island?

Oh They Had To Carry Harry To The Ferry

Another important statistic is distance from campus to the ferry. Because of course, they had to carry Harry to the ferry. And the ferry carried Harry to thе shore. And the reason that thеy had to carry Harry to the ferry. Was that Harry couldn't carry any more. Wagner College would have to carry Harry just over three miles to the Staten Island Ferry while UC Berkeley would have to carry Harry over 5.5 miles from campus to the Oakland Ferry. Credit where its due, point to Wagner. Although after carrying Harry 5.5 miles, I’d like a beer. Maybe a keg for 4 of us.

WAIT WHAT ARE THE ENROLLMENT NUMBERS?

And lastly, just to put this entire weekend into perspective, we’re going to compare the total enrollment of Wagner College (1582 undergraduate students) to the peak enrollment of UC Berkeley’s highest enrolled class, CS61A at a whopping 1657 students. Wow. How the heck did we get into this?

And with that, we’ve learned everything we need to know about Wagner College! Wow, thats a lot of numbers! Looking forward to what should be a very one-sided game. Hope to see you there!

Welcome to the DBD, a Write for California community board where one can talk about anything – Cal-related or off-topic. Comment threads are sorted by topic. Anything is fine, so long as you're generally civil

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Welcome to the DBD, a Write for California community board where one can talk about anything – Cal-related or off-topic. Comment threads are sorted by topic. Anything is fine, so long as you're generally civil

Write For California is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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Aficionados are fond of calling football the ultimate team sport. Take this game as an example - there were 146 total plays from scrimmage and another 27 special teams plays, and the game had 116 total participants combined. Even the best players on each side are maybe going to play in about half of the game, and on many of those plays one individual won’t have a ton of impact. QBs who aren’t mobile and WRs often have no or minimal impact on a running play. A left outside linebacker is irrelevant when the offense throws a WR bubble screen to the opposite side. It is almost impossible for a non-QB to singlehandedly win games on their own, and when it happens it’s a landmark event.

Kingston Lopa pulled off the feat against Syracuse.

To be fair, Lopa didn’t have an obviously massive impact on 170 of the 173 total plays against Syracuse. He recorded five tackles, four of which were for short gains on runs and underneath passes. He certainly played a role in coverage, as Syracuse struggled to go deep and generally had an inefficient day throwing the ball.

But he made the three most important plays of the game for Cal, three plays that swung a likely loss into a win. Three interceptions that swung the game. Consider the 1st, 4th, and 6th plays listed in this graphic:

Lopa’s first interception increased Cal’s chances of winning by 15.5%. His second, resulting in a touchdown, increased Cal’s chances of winning the game by 41.4%. And his final interception increased Cal’s chances of winning by 20.4%, and ended the game.

You could look at the game like this . . .

• Syracuse 18 (with two scoring opportunities taken away by Lopa)

• Kingston Lopa 14

• Cal 7

. . . and wouldn’t really be wrong

I don’t know how best to measure single-game impacts by non-QBs, but there have been few games where one player has been more directly responsible for a win than Kingston Lopa.

There’s the Herm Edwards 4 interception game in a 37-34 win over Washington State in 1974. There were a few games from Deltha O’Neal in 1999 when his interceptions and/or special teams play was the only thing Cal had going. There was Geoff McArthur’s 16 catch, 245 yard Big Game. Feel free to throw out more options in the comments. I don’t know how to rank them, I just know that what Lopa did was something special.

Offense

Efficiency Report

11 drives: 2 touchdowns, 1 field goal attempt (0-1), 7 punts, 1 turnovers (downs), 1.3 points/drive.

If you wanted to be kind to Cal’s offense, you could credit them for a made field goal and boost them to 1.5 points/drive. If you wanted to be unkind, you could detract credit for a short field touchdown set up by Lopa’s long return, and instead give them 0.7 points/drive. 1.3 feels like reasonable balance between the two.

And it kinda doesn’t matter because it is impossible to slice this up in any way that doesn’t look deeply concerning. Syracuse had a bottom 3 ACC defense last year, and while they returned a lot of production and are relatively experienced, it’s still not intimidating talent. I’m confident saying that UCLA’s defense is more talent, for just one example. And yet Cal had exactly one long touchdown drive, which was basically two nice throws by JKS plus a pass interference call.

Rushing the ball still isn’t going well

Last week, I argued that Cal needed to pass more and run less. That’s exactly what happened in this game, with a 60/40 pass/run ratio. And the running game didn’t exactly make an argument for more chances.

It’s basically the same story as last week. Cal isn’t explosive enough running the ball to make up for a lack of down to down efficiency. Alternatively, Cal isn’t efficient enough to make up for a lack of explosiveness. A long run of 13 yards just isn’t very good when you’re also gaining two yards or less on your runs about half the time.

I’d like to believe that there’s room for improvement here, but with four returning offensive linemen, I’m pretty inclined to think that Cal’s rushing attack is what it is, and the only way it would meaningfully improve is if Cal goes very pass heavy and only runs against light boxes as a counter punch.

And I would usually advocate for exactly that strategy, except . . .

Passing the ball also isn’t going well

There’s no way to dance around this subject: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and the Cal passing attack had an alarmingly bad game.

The numbers - 23-34, 182 yards, 5.6 yards/attempt - tell plenty of the story, but JKS looked uncomfortable and out of sync nearly the entire game. There were multiple plays where I wondered if the QB and the WR were running the same play. Sure, he didn’t get a ton of help with some missed contest catch opportunities, but he only took one sack and wasn’t under a notable amount of pressure that might otherwise explain a bad day.

For me, the biggest concern is how unsuccessful Cal was going down field. There were only two explosive passing plays - a deep ball to Ian Strong for 43 yards, and a nice catch-and-run up the seam to Mason mini for 38 yards. When you have a quarterback who can throw accurately downfield, only getting two big plays downfield on 36 drop backs is concerning. It suggests that something is very off about an offense that, frankly, isn’t explained by talent - because this offense is objectively more talented than last year’s Cal offense, which just had its worst passing performance under JKS.

I have a ton of half-baked theories to explain what we’re seeing. Lack of depth at WR and TE (particularly with Dorian Thomas recovering from injury)? Too much underneath stuff and not enough downfield options? The lack of a safety outlet that JKS trusts like Jacob De Jesus? A new offense that hasn’t been well-installed? A new play caller who hasn’t figured out the strength and weaknesses of his personnel?

Whatever the reason, it needs to get fixed, and fast. You cannot have a quarterback this talented and have a passing offense that goes for 5.6 yards/attempt on 34 throws.

Defense

Efficiency Report

12 drives: 2 touchdowns, 4 field goal attempts (2-4), 3 punts, 3 turnovers (3 interceptions), 1.5 points/drive.

1.5 points per drive may flatter Cal slightly since a 31 yarder is typically a gimme . . . but that drive ALSO featured a very weak roughing-the-passer penalty on 3rd and 8 that would have ended the drive much sooner, which is an example of how this stuff tends to balance out in the wash.

Give Kingston his crown

The thing I loved the most about what Lopa did was that each interception was a little bit different and showed a very well rounded player.

The first pick is a combination of athleticism and smarts, reading the QB and using his size and hops to jump for a slightly underthrown ball before nearly housing it. The 2nd pick is a combination of instinct and reading the game/QB to step into the passing lane from a shallow zone assignment. And the 3rd pick was man coverage, running the receiver’s route for him and picking off a lame duck throw.

Getting all three of those picks from one player who happens to be a 3rd year player getting his first major snaps? What a gift.

Flashing talent

Last week, what scared me is that very rarely did a guy on defense make a play that made you take notice. That wasn’t the case against Syracuse.

Obviously, Kingston Lopa took over the game. But Daniel Harris had a great corner blitz, an instinctive pass break up, and 7 total tackles. AJ Tuitele forced a hold on a physical blitz up the middle. Quimari Shemwell had one interception taken away by the refs and dropped a near pick-6. Isaiah Crosby looked like a reliable vet in coverage all game long. Pretty much every guy along the line had a nice pass rush moment or two, particularly Nate Burrell from the inside.

In short, Cal’s defense looked significantly more talented than Syracuse’s offense. That isn’t some kind of big surprise, but after looking reactive last week, that talent won Cal the game on the road and that’s worth celebrating.

Mistakes of aggression, successes of aggression

When Cal gave something up, it was usually a big play that came in part from aggression. For example, Syracuse’s big run on the first series came in part because Cal called a defensive line stunt on what is generally a passing down, and Syracuse’s run attacked the space left behind by that stunt. Syracuse’s long touchdown pass came because multiple Cal defenders bit down on a jet sweep fake. There were a couple times where Angeli hit a hot route on a blitz and Cal bled yards.

But if that’s what Cal gives up in exchange for three interceptions and multiple other near-interceptions, plus three sacks, four QB hits, three QB hurries, two other TFLs, and other general disruption . . . well, that’s a trade I’ll make every Saturday.

Do I wish we had seen this kind of gameplan last week against another QB prone to downfield mistakes when forced into throwing downs? YES, he screamed, while grinding his molars into dust. But kudos to Cal’s defensive coaches for IDing what needed to be changed from last week, and kudos to Cal’s players for executing a more aggressive gameplan.

Special Teams

Moveable object vs resistible force

Anybody who is a fan of special teams would not recommend watching this game, as both teams traded damaging special teams errors in equal measure. Three missed field goals, five penalties, and multiple disasters and near-disasters for both teams.

Most concerningly for Cal were some serious . . .

Punt shield concerns

Syracuse nearly blocked TWO punts

The first was late in the 1st quarter and probably bothered Angus Davies, who only got a 32 yard punt off after dealing with a high snap before finding a dude in his face. This wasn’t a schematic error, it was a blocking miss when the Syracuse rusher did an impressive dodge around a block.

The 2nd punt . . . frankly, I don’t know how Angus Davies got the kick away. Here’s what Cal’s shield saw:

The outside blocker elected to let the inside man go by, instead blocking the outside rusher, probably because he expected the middle man in the shield to slide over to take the inside rusher? Regardless, nobody blocked the first man to nearly disastrous effect.

Both near blocks were by Syracuse’s #3, who is . . . well, one of these two guys:

Coaching/Game Theory/Misc.

Bad process, bad result

It’s 3rd and 5 from the Syracuse 29 yard line early in the 2nd quarter. Cal calls a run play (which looks like a zone read that would have been a clear QB keep if Cal had a running QB, but that’s a different problem) that only gains a yard.

I don’t hate calling a run in that situation - you might catch the defense off guard, and you can always go for it on 4th down. I DO hate the decision if you’re not prepared to actually go for it, but the Bears were evidently not prepared. Cal trotted out Towns McGough, who has a big leg but not a particularly accurate leg from distance. He missed by a couple yards, and Cal’s 35 yard drive nets nothing.

It was a generally terrible process for that area of the field and something that Tosh Lupoi and his staff need to sort out soon because this is not an offense that can currently afford to waste scoring opportunities.

Two odd penalty decisions

1. When Syracuse committed their running-into-the-kicker penalty, the result of the play was Syracuse ball on their own 19 yard line with 0:22 on the clock and no time outs. Why accept the penalty and punt again? What is there to gain? Field position with so little time on the clock is irrelevant, so the only thing that can happen is something bad like a punt block or a long return . . . which is almost what happened.

2. On Cal’s final drive, they took a delay of game penalty on 4th and 1 rather than calling a timeout, in situation where 5 yards might really have mattered. Luckily Angus Davies did a good job on his subsequent squib punt (44 yards, no return, some good time wasted) and Lopa sealed the game two plays later, but I don’t understand why you would give up 5 yards for no reason there.

Which team got it worse from the refs?

As noted above, I thought Cal’s roughing the passer penalty was very soft, and although Syracuse didn’t end up scoring on that drive it cost Cal an interception and thus 32 yards of eventual field position. On the other hand, Syracuse was the victim of two unsportsmanlike conduct calls that were iffy, though they didn’t have a huge impact on the game.

Probably the biggest and most controversial call was the illegal blindside block on Syracuse’s goofy punt return near the end of the 2nd quarter. Here’s the moment of (near) impact:

Per the NCCA rulebook, a blind-side block is:

An open field block against an opponent that is initiated from outside the opponent’s field of vision, or otherwise in such a manner that the opponent cannot reasonably defend themselves against the block.

I think we fans tend to interpret this as a particularly violent block made more from the side/behind a player, and so this one felt wrong in the moment. But by the letter of the law this is probably a correct call - Angus Davies never looked in the direction of Syracuse’s #6, and didn’t have a chance to reasonably defend himself.

Big Picture

Remember last year, when Cal needed a goal line interception at the end of the game to get the road win over Boston College? This felt similar. You don’t want to turn your nose up at a win, let alone an ACC road win nearly 3,000 miles away. But early in the season you’re looking for signs of improvement, and struggling (and perhaps getting lucky) to beat a bad team isn’t exactly a positive indicator that Cal is poised to be more than a team striving for bowl eligibility.

Pre-season, we talked about how Cal is poised to play a bunch of mediocre teams in games that are in coin-flip territory, but if Cal is improved this year, a lot of those coin flip games move into Cal-is-favored territory. Well, Cal just played a virtual coin flip against a Syracuse team coming off a 3-9 season:

Would Cal have won if Syracuse’s RB1 didn’t pull a hammy, turning a likely touchdown into an eventual field goal? If Syracuse’s kicked doinked it off the upright and in rather than out? If Steve Angeli’s final pass hit the turf before Lopa got his hands under it? If the refs didn’t call the blindside block?

Those little things need to go your way if you’re not good enough to leave no doubt.

I’m not completely discouraged. As noted above, Cal’s defense looked significantly better from week 1 to week 2, and if your biggest problem is figuring out how to get production out of the passing game when your quarterback is JKS, then things are far from hopeless. The good news is that Cal has 13 days to prepare for a struggling Clemson team who will be busy worrying about Bill Belichick this week.

Yes, I am certainly looking past a Wagner team that just lost to James Madison 87-3. It is a game that Cal will win easily, and will have to be graded on a severe curve. If Cal’s offense is unable to throw the ball easily against a low-end FCS team, you have my permission to panic. If Cal throws the ball easily, then it’s time to wait and see if the Bears can put another nail in the Dabo Swinney era.

Let’s go back to last week real quick, even though it sucks.

The hype was there. The uniforms were back. The rivalry was rejuvenated! The expectations were also quickly brought back down to reality, and Golden Bears students, alumni, fans, and spectators around the world were reminded that the University of California is still not quite there as a football program.

Dimmed by an ominous green-hue and filter that could only be described as a Russo Brothers-inspired film-choice by ESPN, and with a stadium blasting sound that was drawing out the band and creating miscues across the crowd and players on the field, the brand-new California Golden Bears football team behind first year head coach Tosh Lupoi held strong enough for three quarters to remain tied against Bob Chesney in his first game as head coach of UCLA after leading James Madison to a Sun Belt championship and appearance in the College Football Playoffs, but loose tackles and mismatches were the difference maker – resulting in a UCLA victory of 45-24 in front of a sold-out California Memorial Stadium.

There were many wins within this loss, at least that’s what Rich Lyon’s Chancellor’s email to the UC Berkeley Alumni stated, as the passion in Berkeley was on full display with over 1,000,000 viewers tuned into a classic Pac-whatever after dark matchup. The disparity in attendance across the state between USC, Stanford, and this UC skirmish showed how energized not just Cal fans were in Strawberry Canyon, but UCLA fans as well, who showed up in large numbers to see their new beginning.

UCLA’s beginning obviously comes late in their Big 10 entrance compared to how prominent Oregon, USC, and even Washington have been, and with the help of 10 JMU players, a successful splash in the transfer portal by Bob Chesney, and a big rivalry win – the momentum feels up for the Bruins. Cal and Tosh Lupoi were able to snag a few Oregon players from their roster, work some late magic in the portal, and retain Wilcox’s best recruits, create some of the most generational hype, and recruit the best class Cal has seen in decades – but all of that felt like a blur after such a humiliating defeat.

UCLA is where Cal wants to be. Cal wants a seat at the big table in the Power 2 conferences in the Big 10 or SEC, and Cal has simply not earned it, while UCLA’s invitation came as a package with USC – also feeling like it has not been earned. But that does not matter now. They are at the table, and Cal is not. Cal has to earn their seat, and going 6-6 in the ACC is not how you earn national recognition (your seat).

The Bears dominated last season against Minnesota at home in their gold-out themed game to even their record since 2010 against Big10 teams at 3-3, but a loss to the team that was viewed as a gift-with-purchase to USC in front of a so-so TV crowd is bound to make those TV executives at Fox, CBS, and NBC turn their heads away from “Berkeley.”

What Cal is doing now is not sustainable at ~$20M/year in the ACC; we need to secure a seat in realignment - YOU KNOW THIS. How does Cal fix this right now?

WIN THE ACC. Win the conference, win the big games, win the easy games, and get a seat in the College Football Playoffs. A Team that can’t beat UCLA at home likely won’t win it all (at least not now), but the ACC has one giant in the way, and that is Miami. As far as the rest of the competition goes…Winnable… but for Cal?

But then we fast forward to yesterday. The vibes are “meh?” – high now after nearly pissing away a game that the Syracuse Orange were serving to the Bears on a platter, or better yet, the Orange threw this game away into the hands of Kingston Lopa, the Redshirt Sophomore out of Sacramento who Tosh took with him from Oregon to get valuable minutes in Berkeley rather than work the depth chart in Eugene.

Syracuse almost felt like Cal this game, as the Orange drove down the field with a chance to tie it at 21 apiece with a field goal; their kicker Tripp Woody missed his SECOND FG attempt of the game and second in the 4^th quarter. Sloppy special teams mixed with a promising young QB such as Steve Angeli, who finished the game with 306 passing yards (24-49) with one TD and THREE Interceptions, as mentioned, all of which to Lopa, had the Orange leading 12-7 at the half and outplaying the Bears with 436 yards of total offense to Cal’s 249.

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As I said, the Orange felt like Cal in this one. On the other hand, Cal REALLY felt like Cal. Cal’s defense in the last two quarters felt like it truly came alive and presented what Tosh Lupoi SHOULD be proficient in as far as coaching goes, but the special teams, weak offensive line, dropped passes, and weak first-half tackles felt like the Bears were continuing their miscues from the week prior.

Fran Brown and the Orange were coming off a lackluster 3-9 season entering week 1, and after dominating against New Hampshire (FCS), playing up-to-par against Cal after they nearly stole a win against a much better UCLA team who put the pedal to the metal in the fourth quarter while the Bears were tackling with what felt like their fingertips and blocking with their eyes closed. If Cal can “hold their own” for three quarters against JMUcla, then they sure as hell should not have made this game so close.

There is no path towards realignment if there is nothing to earn in this current alignment. Cal is in a situation where they have only two ranked opponents on their schedule this season, with SMU (16) and Virginia (25) both hosting the Golden Bears in the next couple of months, leaving crumbs of games in my eyes, where Cal should be blowing out their ACC peers, outside of Miami – who is simply in a league of their own right now.

Cal gets a reduced share in their current conference alignment situation, which is why being in the CFP while in the ACC isn't just about national exposure to get picked up for the next realignment cycle; it pays handsomely. The ACC is the only conference that allows their schools to keep all of their postseason performance payout revenue, meaning that just making it to the playoffs pays out $4 million, advancing pays another $4 million ($8 million total), continuing to the semis pays out another $6 million (now at $14 million), and reaching the national title game pays an additional $6 million to give an ACC team (not the conference, but just the team that made it) $20 million to take back to their program, which in Cal’s case, would double their current ACC-revenue share.

I can try and nitpick each detail of the game that was good, bad, and just plain ugly. But then I expose how little I know, and how much I complain. HOWEVER, the defense, and especially Cal defensive coordinator Michael Hutchings, who made some much-needed adjustments coming out of the second half to get at the frazzled Angeli and Cuse offense, deserves praise here to help Lupoi get his first career win. At the end of this game and going into every ACC conference matchup, Cal must adjust to grind out these winnable games when the marquee matchups against hype-generating teams (Miami and UCLA) remind us how much Cal is still Cal to the national audience.

While this win has given me the confidence to take on the week, it scares me down the stretch when the season has taken its toll, and mistakes at this level within this alignment will force the Bears out of a chance for a second look. Getting a couple of important games like UCLA and a conference matchup against Syracuse back-to-back to open the season is no easy feat that Cal’s genius administration has set them up for within this crucial time to stack wins, and at least Cal knows what path is feasible according to their abilities.

Only up from here, the ACC path is the way to go, and it is more than within reach. Onto Wagner. Thank you, Kingston Lopa, for saving this game and my weekend.

It wasn’t easy, but when is it ever easy for the California Golden Bears?

Despite trailing for over 50+ minutes, three crucial interceptions from Kingston Lopa in the second half (including the game-winning pick-six) gave the Bears a 21-18 victory on the road in Syracuse. Steve Angeli was able to move Syracuse into position to score multiple times in the second half, but only scored once. Lopa thwarted three of those Syracuse drives, which included the final possession, and the Orange also missed two crucial field goals that could’ve made the difference.

Cal won this game despite being outgained by nearly 200 yards (436-249), giving up 27 first downs to 16, and the Cal offense managing only one drive of over 40 yards and punting most of the first quarter and second half. 15 Syracuse penalties killed multiple scoring opportunities, and the +3 turnover advantage negated most of those per play advantages.

In the run attack, Adam Mohammed churned his way to 74 yards and probably should have had the game-clinching first down if not for a poor spot, but Syracuse did a good job of early penetration on Cal’s struggling offensive line and prevented second-level explosions.

The Cal wide receivers again struggled with drops from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, stalling multiple drives. Chase Hendricks proved again to be a stable target, catching JKS’s one touchdown throw and hauling in five receptions. Ian Strong also had a huge 45-yard catch to set up the Hendricks tocuhdown, and Mason Mini had a 38-yard catch, and Jordan King grabbed the second score as well, but the Cal passing offense slogged its way to a sub-200 yard performance.

After a disastrous season-opener against UCLA though, the Cal defense adjusted and mustered a much-needed clutch bend-don’t-break performance. Syracuse entered the red zone five times and the Cal 30 seven times but only managed 21 points. Aside from conceding an early Tylik Hill run for 55 yards, and a touchdown from Angeli to Daunte Bacheyie on an overaggressive angle, the Cal defense was mostly stable, making Angeli make tough decisions as his completion rate dipped under 50% and he nearly threw up multiple interception opportunities. After the early big play, the Syracuse run game was held to under 2 yards per carry.

After being out of place against UCLA, then getting outgained 214-65 and falling behind 12-0 to start Saturday, the Bears stiffened their resolve. Cal provided a great deal of pressure from multiple angles against Syracuse, as Jayden Wayne, Daniel Harris, AJ Tuitele, Solomon Williams, and Isaiah Crosby all notched sacks and TFLs, and many of the new transfers along with JD McKinley notched four tackles-plus.

But the star of this game was Lopa. He first intercepted Angeli with Syracuse threatening in the red zone, taking it 53 yards to set up a very short Cal scoring drive to go up 14-12. Lopa then made the biggest play of the game by perfectly reading an Angeli throw over the middle, pick-sixing Angeli to put Cal up 21-18. Lopa’s final diving pick on the final drive sealed the proceedings, as the Bears gutted out yet another road ACC win.

After taking his lumps in his first game at home, Tosh Lupoi earned his first victory with an epic playmaking defense. Games like these are exactly why we hired him, and it should provide the Bears a bit of spark after some tough early moments. Cal has a lot of talent that remains a bit raw, but can grab victories if they play their cards right.

There’s still room for significant improvement. It’s pretty obvious to any member of the Cal family that the offense has to get better. The drops need to be cleaned up, the line needs to create better holes for explosive runs, and the playcalling has to get sharper. Cal got very fortunate that Lopa had the game of his life. It’s always win at all costs and above anything, but there is always a cost to winning this way.

On the bright side, few teams have had a harder two-game entrance to this season than a home game with rising UCLA and a quick 3000 mile turnaround to Syracuse. To come out of that stretch 1-1 with a squad still learning to play together has to feel pretty nice, as the Bears will now spend four of their next five games at home with a brief Vegas interlude in-between.

It’s safe to say Cal should take wins in whatever form they can get them, especially away from the comfortable confines of Berkeley. The Bears clearly are not a finished product, with a lot of new pieces still learning to work as a unit, but after only two games, the defense seems to have found a winning formula for success. If the offense can match them and get on the same page, there could be a real opportunity for something special this season.

A tune-up against Wagner will hopefully prepare them for another must-win opportunity on Friday vs. struggling Clemson. There is still time for the Bears to produce a great season, but the fundamentals must continue to improve.

For now, Cal is 1-0 in ACC play! Let’s move forward and Go Bears!

How to watch Cal v. Syracuse college football

• When: Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026

• Kick-Off Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern

• Where: JMA Wireless Dome in Syracuse, N.Y.

• TV: ACC Network

• Radio: KGO 810 AM; Channel 258 on SiriusXM Radio and the SiriusXM app and website; The Varsity Network app; or the official Cal Bears YouTube channel

How to watch Cal v. Syracuse college football online

The Cal v. Syracuse college football game will air on the ACC Network.

The ACC Network can be streamed online on the ESPN app, ESPN website, popular online TV streaming services and major paid cable or satellite TV providers’ online services.

Follow @WriteForCal and @WriteForCalLIVE on X for the latest from the Write for California staff.

Cal v. Syracuse college football first-half stats

Cal v. Syracuse college football second-half and full-game stats

Today we take a look at what some of the future Golden Bears have done on the gridiron that past few weeks to start their senior season of high school:

Charles Davis - 4 star Tight End, Westlake (Westlake Village, CA)

Davis and the Westlake Warriors have handled their first three opponents to start the season strong. In the first three games, Davis has totaled 12 receptions for 151 yards and four touchdowns. Davis shined in the first game against Newbury Park hauling in 3 receptions and 72 yards with a touchdown. Westlake looks to keep their perfect start going against Laguna Beach on September 10th.

Alius Mayo - 4 star Cornerback, Modesto College (Modesto, CA)

Mayo has been a key contributor to start the season with his strong play and leadership in the secondary. During the two game win streak, Mayo has lived up to the expectations of the #1 JUCO recruit accumulating 7 total tackles, 5 solo tackles, and 1 interception. The Pirates seek to continue shutting down opposing offenses as they take on Diablo Valley on September 12th.

Troy Bowens - 4 star Edge/Wide Receiver, Sutter (Sutter, CA)

Bowens has been highly productive on both sides of the ball, proving to be a true two way athlete. During the Huskies 2-0 start, Bowens totaled 4 rushes for 98 yards and a touchdown. On the Defensive side of the ball, hes been a menace with 16 total tackles, 10 solo tackles, 1 tackle for a loss, and 6 QB hurries. The most recent performance against Douglas on September 4th, Bowens had 3 rushes for 56 yards and a touchdown as well as 9 total tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and 3 QB hurries. The Huskies have a bye this week and look to keep the win streak going against Bradshaw Christian on September 18th.

Kamil Loud - 4 star Cornerback, Bishop Gorman (Las Vegas, NV)

Loud has proven to be a stout defender leading Bishop Gorman to two impressive wins over Somerset Academy and St John Bosco. Loud has grabbed 5 total tackles, 1 interception and 2 pass deflections in Gaels wins. Loud would go on to miss the next two games but after the bye week is looking to bounce back against Mater Dei on September 18th

Demare Dezeurn - 4 star Wide Receiver, Westlake (Westlake Village, CA)

Dezeurn has shown to be the reliable target during the first 3 wins for the Warriors. Through three games he has 14 receptions for 182 yards and 3 touchdowns. In Dezeurn most recent outing against Chatsworth he hauled in 5 receptions for 85 yards and 2 touchdowns in a dominating win. The Warriors will look to stay rolling against Laguna Beach on September 10th.

Rahzario Edwards - 4 star Tight End, Grant Union (Sacramento, CA)

Edwards saw his first in game action in the 21-7 win over Cathedral. He had 1 reception for 12 yards in a quiet game for him overall. Edwards and the Pacers look to improve to 2-1 as they take on Lincoln on September 11th.

DaJohn Yarborough - 3 star Offensive Tackle, Basha (Chandler, AZ)

Yarborough has anchored the offensive line for Basha this season as their offense showed flashes in the first win over Chandler before struggling in a loss against Orange Lutheran. Yarborough and company has paved the way for 88 rushing yards and 196 passing yards per contest. The Bears are looking to bounce back against Pinnacle on September 11th.

Jaderian Jones - 3 star Defensive Line, South Oak Cliff (Dallas, TX)

Jones was very productive up front, but unfortunately feel short against Randle 20-14. He was a disruptive in the back field racking up 7 total tackles, 5 solo tackles, 1 tackle for a loss, and a sack. The Golden Bears had a bye week last week but look forward to get in the win column against North Shore on September 12th.

Elyjah Staples - 3 star Outside Linebacker/Tight End, Marquez (Huntington Beach, CA)

Staples has come out of the gates on fire, making plays on both sides of the ball the first three games of the season. Despite the strong start, it has only yielded 1 win in the first 3 games. Offensively, Staples has hauled in 14 receptions for 228 yards and 4 touchdowns, including his last game against Mayfair where he went for 8 receptions, 228 yards and 3 touchdowns. On the defensive side of the ball Staples has been hard to stop recording 40 total tackles, 27 solo tackles, 4 tackles for a loss, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery and 2 QB hurries. Staples looks to continue to be the focal point of the team as they look to snap the two game skid against Rio Hondo Prep on September 11th.

Dane Weber - 3 star Quarterback, Chaparral (Temecula, CA)

Weber is currently out for the time being from surgery earlier in the season on his thumb.

Jaxsen Stokes - 3 star Running Back, Sierra Canyon (Chatsworth, CA)

After a quiet first game, Stokes bounced back in a huge way as he totaled 26 carries 177 rushing yards as well as adding 2 receptions for 51 yards and a touchdown. Stokes has 218 rushing yards, 85 receiving yards, and 2 total touchdowns on the season. The Trailblazers had a bye week this past week but look to keep their winning streak going against Saint Louis on September 10th.

Giovanni Hodge - 3 star Defensive Lineman, Grant Union (Sacramento, CA)

Hodge put up solid production in the first part of the season, rebounding well after Central East as the defense responded in a big way in their win over Cathedral. On the season, Hodge has 9 total tackles, 1 tackle for a loss, 1 sack, and 2 QB hurries. Hodge and the Pacers look to keep momentum against Lincoln on September 11th.

Miles Schirmer - 3 star Edge, Corona Centennial (Corona, CA)

Schirmer DNP the first game but was able to come back in a heart breakers against Santa Margarita 21-20. In the close match Schirmer had a solid game with 3 total tackles, .5 sacks, and a pass deflection. Schirmer and the line look to bounce back in a big way in the battle of Goliaths versus Mater Dei on September 11th.

Josh Bunni - 3 star Offensive Line, Cardinal Newman (Santa Rosa, CA)

Bunni and the Hogs up front have not been able to break through for a win so far this season but the offense has shown potential. Bunni and the offensive line has helped pave the way for 264 total rushing yards and 215 receiving yards in their first 2 games. The Cardinals are looking to get in the win column this season against Archbishop Riordan on September 11th.

Antwon Sanders - 3 star Running Back, C.E. King (Houston, TX)

Sanders has been held in check but also played pivotal roles in the first two games of the year. He has totaled 6 carries for 70 yards and 2 touchdowns to start the season. The Panthers have split the first 2 games and are looking to get over the close loss last week as they move onto College Park on September 11th.

Blake Gunter - 3 star Wide Receiver, Southlake Carroll (Southlake, TX)

Gunter has shown he does not need many opportunities to make a big impact on a game. Despite the loss against North Crowley, Gunter tabbed 6 receptions for 146 yards. This gives him 10 receptions for 208 yards on the season. Gunter and the Dragons look to turn his big performances into wins against Allen on September 11th.

Jamie Spurgeon - 3 star Tight End, Minarets (North Fork, CA)

Spurgeon showed off his impressive athleticism the first game of the year but did not record stats for the last two games. In the win over St Genevieve, Spurgeon totaled 2 rushes for 47 yards and a touchdown, while hauling in 5 receptions, 136 yards, and 2 touchdowns. The Mustangs have raced out to a 3-0 start and look to add on another win against Liberty September 11th.

Gunnar Perry - 3 star Linebacker, Cactus Shadows (Scottsdale, AZ)

Perry DNP the first few games due to the transfer rule. Will be looking to make an impact after the first 5 games.

Ace Herman-Dawson - 3 star Offensive Lineman, Crean Lutheran (Irvine, CA)

Herman-Dawson has anchored the front line in several solid offensive outings during the Saints 2-1 start. Through three games, he has assisted the offense with 291 rushing yards, 763 passing yards, and averaging around 31 point per game. After a close loss to San Juan Capistrano in their last outing, they look to bounce back against Oak Ridge on September 11th.

Brody Rudnicki - 3 star Quarterback, Folsom (Folsom, CA)

Rudnicki has displayed his Dual Threat ability as the Bulldogs have come away with two impressive victories. Against Mission Viejo, Rudnicki went 17-30 for 244 passing yards and two touchdowns. He added on 25 carries for 123 yards and 3 touchdowns. For the season he has 362 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 156 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns. Rudnicki looks to lead this high powered offense against Sacred Heart Cathedral Prep on September 11th.

Jeovanni Henley - 3 star Running Back, Junipero Serra (San Mateo, CA)

Henley and the Padres split the first two games of the season against De La Salle and Kahuku. Through those contests, Henley has 110 total rushing yards and a touchdown. He went for 4 carries and 16 yards against Kahuku and is looking to get back to full speed in their next contest against St Marys on September 11th.

Zac Brein - 3 star Kicker, IMG Academy (Bradenton, FL)

Brein has been a major weapon in the kicking game during the 3-0 start for the Ascenders. Through three games, he has gone 20 for 21 on PATs and 2 for 2 on Field Goals. On Kickoffs, Brein has totaled 28 kicks for 1,897 yards with 22 touchbacks. Breins leg has been reliable and consistent all season. The Ascenders have a bye week then look to keep the win streak going against The First Academy on September 18th.

We chatted with Tanner Jace from Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician about the game against Syracuse. You can see our Q&A answers about Cal over at their site.

1. What is the mood amongst the Syracuse fanbase to start the season? You have a healthy QB, but then there are the admissions stories coming out, how do you guys feel about the program rn?

There’s definitely optimism among the fanbase to start the season. After Steve Angeli went down last year at Clemson, and watching the rest of the Quarterback room, the fanbase knew the season was a wash. Watching Steve last week for Orange fans was great to see, he looked like the Angeli of last year, Cuse didn’t throw the ball as much on Saturday as they have the last two seasons and that’s a credit to the production that came from the run game.

In terms of the admissions stories it definitely dampens the University as a whole, and I’m not going to say that it doesn’t affect the Athletics program, but does not affect the athletics program as much as affect the academic side of things. In terms of the Football program, Coach Brown has done a really good thing since coming in, the type of players that he’s brought in have been higher level then what we saw in the past here on the hill. New Athletic Director Brian Blair, has already brought new and fresh ideas. The program as a whole looks like it is on the right track.

2. Offensive player on Syracuse to watch?

I’m going to give you two, but the same position. Running Backs Ahmad Miller and Ju’Juan Johnson. I say Miller and Johnson because Brown brought them in the portal and are Running Backs one and two. Miller and Johnson in fall camp certainly showed that is the case. Last week Miller and Johnson were out with injuries against New Hampshire. In their absence Freshman Shavane Anderson in his first game ran for 102 yards and three touchdowns, Sophomore Tylik Hill added 91 yards and a touchdown as well. Hill and Anderson are respectively running backs three and four. So it begs the question how much better are Cuse’s one and two.

3. Defensive player on Syracuse to watch?

On the flip side edge rusher Keyshawn Johnson is a name to watch on the defense. Johnson came in from the FCS level last year where he had 13.5 sacks and was a FCS All-American at UT Martin. Johnson had caught my eye during the spring. Johnson is really quick off the line and can force JKS to have to rush through his progressions. Last week Johnson had 2.5 sacks on top of 2.5 tackles for loss against New Hampshire.

4. How do you see the game going?

Unfortunately for Cal Fans, I see this game going the way of the Orange. I think with a really established running game, the reinforcements Cuse is going to get in the running game, I can see the Bears defense giving up 200 yards on the ground similar to they way they did last week to UCLA. And when the running game gets going for SU, it becomes really hard to stop Jeff Nixon’s air raid offense that has produced national passing leaders. Defensively, Syracuse is going to provide an emphasis on stopping the run with its four man rush. JKS is going to have a tough time attacking the boundaries with Cal wide receivers being matched up with Corners Chris Peal and Demetres Samuel, who are in the top tier of the ACC as corners.

5. What does Cal need to do to win this game?

For Cal to win they have to come on the Defensive end. Being much improved in the run game has to be a focus for Lupoi’s group, if the Bears force Syracuse to be one dimensional through the air and put wide receiver Umari Hatcher on lockdown. The wide receiver group has not shown that there is someone else other than Hatcher that can hurt a defense through one week. If JKS takes care of the ball Cal will have a really good shot in a game that could turn into an offensive shoot out.

6. Whom do you most want to punch in the face? (This is a traditional question for the column; it’s open-ended, so don’t feel obligated to answer if it’s not your style)

Going to flip to another SU sport Men’s Basketball. It was announced yesterday that Duke comes to town on January 5th. They only issue with that is it’s during winter break and students will be at home and you still might get a really good size crowd, just not as much if the students were back at classes and the students always show out for Duke no matter how the team is playing. So whoever made this decision definitely has myself scratching my head.

Initial D is a series about lowest high stakes drifting to the best Eurobeat music of all time. However, when you drift too hard it spins into a donut, a fast moving donut but a spinning of the wheels in one place nonetheless. Cal football’s offense feels like this right now.

Spinning our wheels with Cal Football

You know what it means to look at a run/pass tendency chart and see another year of reliance on early down runs by the Cal offense. This begins to taper off when as the down counter ticks up until JKS is told to salvage a 3rd down with his arm 80% of the time.

This creep up in tendency is associated with the fact that Cal faced 21 3rd downs with the average distance of 7.9. What needs to be emphasized is the fact that the offense will not consistently convert 52.4% of their 3rd downs in the long run. This is an unreasonable ask to give Tom Brady at the peak of his power not to mention a player in his 14th CFB start.

To continue the thread about the offense and defense: Cal and UCLA faced similar yards per drive but that’s quite deceptive since UCLA faced a much shorter starting position on the field with their average drive starting position being the UCLA 41 and Cal starting on our own 22.

We got beat, and got beat bad

There is a certain section of the fandom that think that since Cal and UCLA tied 24-24 in Q4 Cal were matching play by play. However, if we look at the explosive and success rate ratios on down by down basis it was never and even match up especially on 1st and 3rd down rushing.

What this shows that UCLA gained a 1st down on every 3rd down rush, and was keeping UCLA on schedule on 75% of their 1st down rushes. Keeping the offense away from passing downs and keeping Nico away from having to put the team on his arm.

Cal on the other hand struggled to get anything done on 2nd downs after a mediocre 1st down performance. The only reason Cal was effective was the near miraculous performance on 3rd down where Cal converted more than 50% of the 3rd downs.

And if we look deeper into the Cal rushing game UCLA kept Adam Mohammed contained to the national mean with many of the tackles happening near the LOS.

The California Golden Bears (0-1) begin Atlantic Coast Conference play this weekend, facing off against the Syracuse Orange (1-0) in its first visit to central New York state since 1967.

Cal will look to bounce back after suffering a rout at home in its season opener last week.

Here is how you can watch Cal v. Syracuse college football this Saturday.

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How to watch Cal v. Syracuse college football

• When: Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026

• Kick-Off Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern

• Where: JMA Wireless Dome in Syracuse, N.Y.

• TV: ACC Network

• Radio: KGO 810 AM; Channel 258 on SiriusXM Radio and the SiriusXM app and website; The Varsity Network app; or the official Cal Bears YouTube channel

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How to watch Cal v. Syracuse college football online

The Cal v. Syracuse college football game will air on the ACC Network.

The ACC Network can be streamed online on the ESPN app, ESPN website, popular online TV streaming services and major paid cable or satellite TV providers’ online services.

Write for California will have a live fan stream for reactions and discussions about the game. Join the Write for California community in our live game thread and follow @WriteForCal and @WriteForCalLIVE on X for the latest from the Write for California staff.

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Christopher_h

Scoreline: Cal loses 20-33

Cal is not allowed to have nice things. I would love to be wrong, but a lot of the issues I saw last Saturday did not appear to be easily fixable, and pointed towards deeper systematic issues. I don't usually reach this level of pessimism until midseason.

Rob Hwang

Scoreline: Cal wins 35-33

We have to hope our execution improves and that Steve Angeli still isn’t a 100% coming off that injury from last season.

Ben Rossi

Scoreline: Cal wins 35-31

Another fairly high scoring affair but Cal will manage better ball security when it matters most, getting their first win in the Tosh Lupoi era.

Berkelium97

Scoreline: Cal wins 28-27

There's still too much variance to have any reasonable expectation of what this team is going to do each week.

Ben

Scoreline: Cal wins 23-20

Cal shows life, and grinds one out against all odds.

Nick Kranz

Scoreline: Cal wins 30-29

First, I want to make something clear: I have maybe 5% confidence in this prediction. Syracuse hasn't played a relevant game of football in more than a year thanks to QB injuries, and we learned nearly nothing from the New Hampshire game. I ultimately think that Cal will do better against a team that has typically been more effective passing the ball vs. running it, but who the hell knows?

Yoav Shames

Scoreline: Cal wins 28-24

We leave this game with a win but perhaps not the redemptive clarity that is desired. The defense shows more signs of life and better discipline, but we rely on a few too many lucky breaks on 3rd and Long from our quarterback.

Ruey Yen

Scoreline: Cal wins 28-24

Cal's stadium operations team was actually playing 5D chess by encouraging noise during offense!?!? Bears is fine with the road noise at Syracuse in week 2.

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Welcome back to the new and improved The Good, the Bad, and the Rockfights, our weekly attempt to fit the previous game into a tidy little statistical box. In our previous edition, we were in a bit of an existential crisis because our previous data source had become untenably expensive. Well, we found a new source: introducing, BCF Toys! I’ve been a fan of the site and data guru Brian Fremeau’s work for many, many years (I’ve been following his weekly score projections, with a particular focus on Cal, for as long as I can remember). While our previous PFF data used player-level grades aggregated to the team level to cover performance of specific position groups (run blocking, receiving, pass coverage, etc.), BCF Toys’ data focuses primarily on possessions and the outcomes of those possessions. Here’s how Brian described the origin story for his brand of analysis:

I’m frequently asked questions about the origins of my work with college football data analysis. After witnessing a 2002 victory by Boston College over Notre Dame, a game in which the Eagles failed to advance a single offensive drive across midfield and the Irish had six drives fail inside the BC 25-yard line, I had questions that traditional box scores were unable to sufficiently answer. I began collecting possession data soon thereafter; to define the fluid value of field position, quantify the impact of turnovers and special teams, evaluate offensive and defensive team strengths, and develop new measures of team and unit success. The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) ratings and other possession statistics found on this site are the results of those initial inquiries, and many more since.

His Whiteboard page provides a ton of information and context about his analytic approach (if you’re interested in this stuff—which you might well be because you’re reading this piece—and you have 10-15 minutes to spare, I encourage you to read through the whole thing. But only after you finish reading this piece.). If you don’t have 10-15 minutes, then here’s a very quick explainer:

I’m really only interested in capturing a few key data points with every possession in every FBS game: who had the ball, where on the field did the possession begin, how many scrimmage plays were run on the possession, where did it end, how did it end, and what was the score when it ended. I also record whether the possession took place in the first half, second half, or in overtime.

BCF Toys’ data thus has a very simple focus: how can we quantify aspects of a possession over the course of a game? Moving from PFF’s data to BCF Toys’ data, we’re largely pivoting from player-driven measures aggregated to the team level to measures that strictly capture team-level drive performance. And as you’ll see, there’s some surprising overlap in what comes out of our analysis compared to our previous data.

A Glossary of BCF Toys’ Game Ratings

We have a new data source, so we have several new measures to learn. Fortunately there is conceptual overlap across several of them and they’re fairly straightforward, even if the names can be a bit long.

Offensive and Defensive Ratings

These six measures are captured for offense and defense for each game (note: all measures exclude garbage time possessions, and the bottom of this page explains how garbage time is measured).

• Game rating: game-level FEI data capturing scoring value per possession (adjusted for opponent quality)

• Possession efficiency: unadjusted scoring value per possession

• Points per drive: points scored per drive

• Available yards percentage: total yards accumulated (from the beginning of the possession to where the possession ends) divided by the distance to the end zone from the starting position. For example, if a team gets the ball at the 50 and drives to the 35 before stalling out, that would be a 30% rating for the offense and a 70% rating for the defense on that possession.

• Yards per play: rather self-explanatory

• Drive success rate: percentage of drives that end with a score (TD or FG)

In sum, these ratings capture a mix of yards-based productivity, efficiency in moving the ball, and achieving the ultimate goal: points. I had to calibrate the ratings so that higher scores are better across all categories. A defense that yields more yards per play and points per drive is actually worse, and BCF’s raw data reflects that (so lower scores are better for most defensive ratings). But when we’re looking across offense, defense, and special teams, it’s easier to have consistency when interpreting what higher vs. lower numbers mean for the ratings.

Speaking of special teams, that’s a new addition that we did not have with our previous data. Now we have five special teams ratings:

• Game rating: scoring value generated per field goal, punt, kickoff, and PAT (adjusted for opponent quality)

• Possession efficiency: unadjusted scoring value per field goal, punt, kickoff, and PAT

• Field goal rating: value added per field goal attempt

• Punt rating: value added per punt attempt

• Kickoff rating: value added per kickoff

With that, we have 17 team-level ratings for each game. And our goal is to make sense of what those ratings tell us about the team’s overall performance. To derive some insight from those ratings, we use the same approach we’ve been using throughout this series: a machine-learning clustering algorithm (a k-means clustering algorithm, which you can read more about here).

With that long re-introduction to the series out of the way, we can dive into data from the UCLA game.

Ratings Comparison

It’s a Good-Bad-Rockfights post, so you know there will be boxplots. With 17 distinct ratings categories, a single plot would be too crowded, so I am now breaking them up into plots for offense, defense, and special teams.

Offense

Recall that boxplots capture the distribution of the data, where the box represents data between the 25th and 75th percentiles, and the horizontal line represents the median or midpoint of the data.

These are a bunch of new stats for this series, so let’s walk through them. Overall, they’re quite middling. The worst was Game Rating (OffGR), which captures an opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. The offense’s unadjusted efficiency (OffEff) was slightly worse than usual (i.e. just below the horizontal line). Compared to the Game Rating, this suggests that this UCLA team is a bit worse than Cal’s usual opponent (defensively, at least). Not great. Points per Drive (OffPPD) was slightly better than usual, while available yards (OffAYd) and yards per play (OffYPP) were exactly middling. This suggests that Cal could score the ball a little better than usual, but their ability to get the necessary yards to score the ball and the per-play efficiency were typical. Finally, success rate (OffSR), or the rate of ending a possession with a score, was slightly worse than usual.

Defense

The ratings indicate this is a bottom-25 percentile performance for Cal’s defense. The only rating that is not terrible is success rate, which indicates that Cal did a not-awful job of stopping UCLA from scoring (this is because UCLA had several short possessions ending in punts and one ending in an interception). When UCLA did move the ball, they were both efficient and productive. If you’re wondering why points per drive (DefPPD) was around the 25th percentile while success rate (DefSR) fared better (success rate, or the rate of drives ending in a score, is closely related to points per drive), it’s because Cal allowed UCLA to score 6 TDs on their 7 total scoring drives. Had Cal held them to several more field goals, that success rate would have been the same while the points per drive would have fared better. As we grow accustomed to the new data source, it will be easier to tease apart those little nuances reflecting how the ratings of the game demonstrate variations across productivity, efficiency, and scoring.

Special Teams

Overall, every category in special teams was slightly worse than usual. Except kickoffs, where Cal allowed 28 yards per attempt while the Bears failed to cross the 25 each time. As Nick constantly reminds us, just fair catch the ball.

Clustering

Now we feed our new data set into the clustering algorithm to see how it organizes the games. The clustering algorithm groups together games with similar sets of ratings and separates those with strong contrasts between their ratings. After tinkering with the algorithm a bit, I determined that four clusters was the best fit to our existing data (remember from our previous iterations of this series that the number of clusters can evolve over time, so we may see 3 or 5 clusters at some point in the future). So what kind of clusters did the algorithm return?

Good! Bad! Rockfights! Pillowfights! It’s a return to a familiar set of clusters we saw from 2023 through midway last season (the UCLA game fell into The Bad, but let’s not dwell on that). What kinds of ratings do we see in each of these clusters?

Good tends to earn strong scores across the board, while bad is awful in every direction. Rockfights feature great defense and woeful offense, while Pillowfights tend to turn into high-scoring shootouts. Although we have a new dataset, we have the same set of performance profiles we had seen throughout most of the Wilcox Era. I think that speaks well to the reliability of both PFF and BCF Toys’ data. We may have an entirely new set of data capturing drive-level measures, but we’re still largely capturing the same performance profiles across games.

The next plot shows how frequently each type of game occurred over time from 2007 through 2025.

We see a mix of performance types in the later Tedford years, followed by a death spiral into The Bad in 2012-13, an explosion of Pillowfights during most of the Sonny Dykes years, and the rise and fall of Wilcox’s Rockfight teams. Then from 2021 onward the team had a mix of outcomes and was not clearly defined by any one type of performance.

The last two coaching changes brought a team with a clear identity, as evidenced by huge numbers of Pillowfights 2014-16 then Rockfights galore in 2018-19. Will the Lupoi Era follow a similar pattern? Or will it invent an entirely new category of games? When we originally began this series, the data were best defined by three clusters, but that grew to this same set of four in 2023, then expanded to 5 as the team found new and unusual performance profiles (and then expanded to 6 when I went back and added the Dykes-era data). I’ll periodically check to make whether four is the correct number of clusters or if we need to expand. But with 19 seasons of data baked in, it may be hard for a new cluster to emerge. In any case, we will find out as this 2026 season unfolds. Welcome back and Go Bears!

Welcome to the DBD, a Write for California community board where one can talk about anything – Cal-related or off-topic. Comment threads are sorted by topic. Anything is fine, so long as you're generally civil

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