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The California Golden Bears (2-3, 1-1 ACC) and Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-1, 2-1 ACC) will compete in a Saturday evening game, the Atlantic Coast Conference and Cal Athletics announced Monday morning.

Cal v. Wake Forest will kick off on Saturday, Oct. 17 at 7:30 p.m. Pacific at Databricks Field at California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, Calif.

ESPN is the broadcast network for the football game. Cal v. Wake Forest will air on ESPN or ESPN2, with the actual network finalized after this weekend’s games.

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The Wake Forest Demon Deacons will travel to Strawberry Canyon for the first time in program history. The two teams have only met once previously in Cal’s inaugural season in the Atlantic Coast Conference, a 46-36, victory in Wake Forest, N.C., in 2024.

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We landed at Harry Reid International Airport at around 6:00 on Friday night and headed to the taxi stand to get to The Strip.

Our taxi driver was a gregarious fellow, a workaholic immigrant from Vietnam (he made me guess) who peppered us with questions and filled the entire 20 minute ride with friendly chatter. He shared that, when he wasn’t working, he loved nothing more than to sleep, and that he slept so much and so soundly that at times his friends and family worried about him.

Then he said something that rattled around in my brain all weekend long:

Dying is easy!

Living, he explained, was the hard part. Just to survive (let alone be successful) is a never-ending trial of toil and effort. But dying? Our driver cheerfully said it was just as easy as slipping off to sleep, something we all do every day.

Every day since the beginning of the end of the Pac-12 four years ago, Cal has been fighting so hard just to survive. Administrative reform, furious fundraising, new resources, new hires, a coaching regime change, a massive recruiting push, all of it an attempt to create a new era of Cal football.

And then, when that new era of Cal football failed to launch against UCLA and Clemson, Cal’s army of new hires were forced to go back to the drawing board. They seemingly threw out most of the offense that was installed in the pre-season, changing up a ton of personnel and rolling with a five-wide pass-happy new look.

And then Cal lost their best defensive player to injury, and UNLV adapted to Cal’s wild-and-crazy new offense, then their QB threw the worst pass of his career, then two other DBs tossed for targeting, then Cal started leaking big plays, then their QB and best WR went down, but Cal kept trying SO HARD that they just kept committing aggressive penalty after aggressive penalty . . .

And then lost to UNLV anyway.

There is no choice but to get on with the hard work of trying to live, because we all know how easy it is to die.

Offense

Efficiency Report

17 drives: 4 touchdowns, 2 field goal attempts (1-2), 7 punts, 4 turnovers (3 downs, 1 interception), 1.8 points/drive.

Here is why we use points/drive - One could easily look at this game (31 points! A season-high against FBS teams!) and think that this was a major break through.

But because Cal went up-tempo and pass-happy, this game featured twice as many possessions as the Clemson game, and so this game lagged the UCLA game in terms of scoring efficiency. Hell, I was generous and gave Cal credit for that final, meaningless touchdown. If you remove that, we’re down to 1.5 points/possession, about the same as what Cal put up against Syracuse.

Having said that, this WAS an improvement in an absolute sense. Cal managed 5.6 yards/play, a season high against FBS teams and a meaningful improvement.

What was different?

Let’s just get this out of the way: regardless of what we hear in press conferences, I think this game plan had Nick Rolovich’s fingerprints all over it, and I’m just going to assume that he is Cal’s de facto offensive coordinator at this point.

We can split what changed into two categories: personnel, and strategy/play-calling.

On the personnel front, Cal RADICALLY changed their wide receiver usage. In the first three non-Wagner games, Cal basically used just 6 players as targets- Ian Strong, Chase Hendricks, Cooper Perry, Jordan King, Mason Mini, and Taimane Purcell.

But against UNLV, Cal handed a bunch of snaps to basically brand new players 1st year Tyree Sams and 3rd year Carson Perry-Smith, plus a ton of snaps to Quaron Adams, Mark Hamper, and Kyion Grayes. All of them got targets and catches.

But that shift makes sense in light of Cal’s shift to what was basically an air raid offense. Cal dropped back to pass on 66 of 83 offensive snaps, or 79.5%. In many ways, this game plan was even more extreme than many I saw over the years from Mike Leach, who also passed the ball that much or more, but at least maintained the fig leaf of a running threat by using a 4 WR, 1 RB formation most of the time. Cal basically ran their first 3 drives with 5-wide on every play.

I have mixed feelings about this. On one hand, it makes sense. If you were given the following facts . . .

1. Run game wasn’t very effective to start the season

2. #1 and #2 running backs hurt and unavailable

3. Upcoming opponent shredded for 8.6 and 9.0 yards/pass respectively against Memphis and North Texas

4. Despite what you’ve seen to start the season, you’re still pretty sure you have a generational QB talent.

. . . then you would probably draw up a game plan that featured a ton of passes and a ton of receivers.

On the other hand, going five wide has a few very obvious draw backs:

1. The defense knows it’s gonna be a pass. UNLV was able to rush the passer with impunity

2. Cal has already proven that they aren’t good at executing bubble screens against FBS quality competition.

Pretty quickly, UNLV started responding with zero coverage blitzes (keeping five men in man-to-man coverage on Cal’s 5 WRs and blitzing 6), and the only counter to that generally is bubble screens. Which . . .

How exactly is Cal teaching blocking to their receivers?

Bubble screens can be wildly effective against zero coverage. If you can block on the edge, it basically means that your receiver is in space, one-on-one against a DB. If that receiver is at all good in space, that means just one broken tackle means a huge gain, if not a house call.

That “if you can block on the edge” part is pretty important, though. In addition to a number of failed blocks, Cal picked up another three holding calls. Those holding calls killed three different Cal drives (two immediately ended drives leading to a subsequent punt, a third pushed Cal to the edge of field goal range ending in a missed kick).

Fans (somewhat reasonably) tend to hate bubble screens because they are often a very low-reward play, but they are a more or less mandatory constraint play in most modern offenses. It’s a great way to punish a defense for either bringing too many defenders into the box or for playing too many players deep to take away longer throws. I get why Cal tried to incorporate them into the offense.

The problem is teaching and execution, because based on the evidence, Cal’s WRs and TEs are unable to block for these plays without committing penalties, so the majority of Cal’s bubble screens have either been blown up at the line, or even worse resulted in a 10 yard, drive-killing penalty.

Which coaching failure is more galling? Failing to teach WRs how to execute an outside block? Failing to recognize that your players can’t execute the block, and building an offensive system that your players can’t execute?

JKS vs. Jackson Brousseau

There was some rumbling after the game that Cal’s back-up QB out-performed the starter. For what it’s worth:

In a similar number of reps, JKS had a better completion percentage and yards/attempt, and both players took the same number of sacks. If you took out the interception, you’d say that JKS marginally won the battle.

That’s a pretty gigantic thing to ignore, because that interception was the single most damaging mistake Cal made in a game full of them, killing a scoring opportunity and swinging field position in a way that eventually allowed UNLV to cash in. But the idea that Brousseau was obviously better, particularly when 86 of his 200 passing yards came in a borderline garbage-time drive down 14 points, isn’t really backed up on the stat sheet.

I will say this much: Brousseau is an overqualified back-up QB, something that hasn’t really been the case for Cal since . . . well, maybe back to the days when Cal kept switching between Nate Longshore and Kevin Riley?

Defense

Efficiency Report

14 drives: 5 touchdowns, 1 field goal attempt (1-1), 7 punts, 1 turnover (1 interception), 2.8 points/drive.

On a yards/play basis, this was actually UNLV’s 2nd worst offensive performance of the season, but it was their highest scoring game of the year for exactly one reason.

Explosives, explosives, explosives

The good news? UNLV’s success rate was only 31%, which is really bad! 4th percentile, per GameOnPaper.com.

The bad news? When UNLV got a successful play, they made it count - their explosive play rate (12%) was in the 90th percentile, and big plays (including three house calls) won UNLV this game:

1. 70 yard touchdown pass (on 3rd and 8)

2. 55 yard QB run (on 3rd and 3)

3. 36 yard touchdown pass

4. 44 yard QB run (on 3rd and 8) that set up a touchdown

I’ll do a film review later this week, but I strongly suspect that Kingston Lopa’s absence was felt particularly keenly here on some of these plays.

On UNLV’s other 57 offensive snaps, they did very little with the ball, averaging just 2.5 yards/play. But Cal’s defense has already shown themselves to be very vulnerable to the big play, and after 5 games I think it’s something you’re just going to have to bake into your expectations unless or until Cal fixes their busts. That goes double if Lopa is out.

Special Teams

High impact in all directions

Notable special teams plays:

• Cal getting caught on another fake punt, which allowed UNLV to continue a drive that ended in a field goal

• Cal recovering a fake onside kick to start the 2nd half, which . . . didn’t mean much because a 4th down failure meant UNLV ended up starting their first drive from about the same spot as if Cal had kicked it out of the end zone, but hey it was a free extra scoring chance.

• A 51 yard field goal from Towns McGough that was both inaccurate and also probably not long enough

• A UNLV fumbled kickoff return when the UNLV dude ran into his own blocker, which ignited Cal’s ultimately futile comeback.

• Tyree Sams’ installation as a punt returner, which led to two nice returns, one of which was negated by a hold that costed Cal 19 yards of field position.

• 5 kickoff return attempts from Cal, including one goofy end around lateral thingy to start the game. The first three all failed to get back to the 25 yard line, which of course led to me cursing in the stands when Niles Davis attempted a 4th return, only to watch him run it back to midfield

Coaching/Game theory

Lots of 4th down decisions

Cal attempted the following 4th down conversions (before the final drive):

• 4th and 2 from the UNLV 49 on the 1st drive of the game

• 4th and 2 from the UNLV 23 on the 1st drive of the 2nd half, down 17

• 4th and 5 at the UNLV 48, 9:20 to play down 7

The latter two are obvious: you’re losing in the 2nd half, you need touchdowns, you’re in plus territory. The first decision is maybe a little marginal considering how your offense has played to date, but it’s still plus territory. My bigger gripe was going 5 wide on both 3rd and 2 and 4th and 2 when the threat of a run really matters in short yardage.

On Penalties

I would roughly put Cal’s 16 penalties into four categories:

• Cal is bad at blocking

5 of Cal’s penalties were holds, but none of them were called on offensive linemen. Covered above under Offense. Time to reevaluate how we’re teaching our non-linemen how to block

• Cal is overaggressive on defense

5 of Cal’s penalties were basically personal fouls on defense (targeting, roughing, hands to face). Some were maybe a tad unfortunate/random, but this is probably an inherent part of how Cal plays football, expect this to be a cost of doing business. Hopefully over time the defense plays well enough that it’s a cost we’re willing to accept.

• Procedural penalties

3 of Cal’s penalties were delays/false starts. Not great, and the delay on the first offensive play of the game doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, but this isn’t crazy in the context of 83 offensive snaps

• Other

One intentional grounding, one defensive holding, one defensive PI. The defensive PI was incredibly costly because it turned a likely 3rd and long into a free first down that allowed UNLV to ice the game.

Big Picture

This is almost certainly a lost season.

That sucks to hear after five games. It also feels a little bit reactionary when you’re 1-1 in conference play, but when you combine the eye test with the advanced metrics (Cal is 88th in SP+ and 82nd in FPI) and the potential injury situation it’s really really hard to see how Cal gets to a bowl game, let alone gets anywhere near the 8 wins that much of the fan base set as the pre-season expectation.

It’s so bad, in fact, that there are serious (but troll-adjacent) national commentators saying that Cal will have to consider firing Tosh Lupoi after just one season.

These were in-the-moment reactions to another bad game and the collective body of work after 5/12ths of the season, but it’s silly mostly because I cannot imagine a scenario where Cal eats another huge buy-out to go on top of the 10 million they had to pay Justin Wilcox, only to then go and hire ANOTHER head coach. If Cal had that kind of money available to kick around they would probably be much wiser to spend it on assistant coach and roster improvements anyway.

So all that really matters right now is whether or not everybody involved can identify what has gone wrong and fix it. That can mean tweaks that help Cal get better on-field results (and maybe even some wins) in 2026, but what matters a lot more is what happens in the off-season.

Can Cal retain the players they want to retain? Can Cal retain the coaches they want to retain? Most importantly, can Cal keep major donors onboard to continue financing the effort to save Cal football, and can Cal bring in the right new coaches (like, say, an offensive coordinator?) who can get it right in 2027?

Welcome to the DBD, a Write for California community board where one can talk about anything – Cal-related or off-topic. Comment threads are sorted by topic. Anything is fine, so long as you're generally civil

Write For California is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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The biggest historical concern I’ve had with Cal hiring Tosh Lupoi was whether his strategic deficiencies as a coach were covered up by management from very good to elite coaches like Tedford, Sarkisian, Saban and Lanning, and the first five weeks have laid all those fears bare.

This is not a well-coached football team.

The first team offense is beyond broken, managed by a staff that seems unable to do anything off script, forced to put in backup wide receivers in as running backs, an offensive line mired in mud, wideouts who continue to drop half their passes, and a talented quarterback who has underachieved to an appalling degree. That Jackson Brousseau came in and made Cal look slightly better for this scheme feels even worse, as if the first team really just seems unable to process a an offense that takes over half the practice snaps.

The play calling continues to baffle. If there were changes in how the staff managed the game, they produced near nothing with QB1 in the first half. Rollouts to the short side of the field. Long developing plays for JKS with a slow footed offensive line. Wide receiver screens on 3rd and long. Whatever is happening with this team through the week, it is not translating on gameday.

Despite Cal special teams having a rare good performance (Successful onside kick! Fumble recovery! Huge kickoff return! Punt block!), the offense managed three points from those moments. It’s become a running gag that these Golden Bears take turnovers and turn them right back over to their opponents, and this played out to maximum effect in Vegas.

The Cal defense, the only unit that seemed to be improving, got gashed by the monumental speed of quarterback Jackson Arnold. Injuries didn’t help, but neither did two targeting penalties that wiped out the backside and forced the team on the back unit. When Cal rallied to take the lead in the 4th, the defense immediately surrendered the game under a haze of penalties galore. 39 points to UNLV is a very poor performance, and there are much better ACC quarterbacks on the horizon.

The Bears are definitely a playmaking team, and won their only P4 game because of those plays. But over two-thirds of the plays that happen in their games tend to benefit their opponent. Cal continues to look over aggressive or bizarrely passive depending on the situation, leading to negative football in too many scenarios that does not benefit the team at all.

There were always scenarios in which Cal would struggle under a first year head coach, particularly one who lacked the strategic bona fides to really manage a game. There were hopes that the talent influx Lupoi could bring would raise the ceiling of the team. But that’s all offset by lackluster coaching, which has made the Bears doubly disappointing as expectations have car crashed into reality.

This is the darkest place. This is a very inexperienced staff that appears to be fumbling for solutions. Ron Rivera is patrolling the sidelines with the headset, a director of football overseeing the coaches he signed off on hiring. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele looks absolutely lost in processing whatever he’s being asked to process, and got turfed up for his efforts.

I don’t know the solution. All I know are the outcomes, which will be an emptied out Memorial Stadium the rest of 2026, a disaffected Cal fanbase opening up their Saturdays for other fall activities, recruits now openly wondering what type of chaos ball they’d be signing up for, and a furious donor base wondering exactly what all those millions in NIL investment were spent on to produce this level of incompetence on the field.

Tosh Lupoi had financial, internal, and overall community buy-in and alignment. In five weeks it’s all but crumbled, under a morass of strategic errors and a group of players unable to play smart or strong on gameday. Course correcting this before the season ends (with Cal now decided underdogs in its next five games) is now priority 1, 2, and 1000, or the Bears could be facing the nightmare cycle of the perpetual rebuild.

Because if things don’t change, this tenure could be doomed before it even starts.

And with realignment negotiations beginning in the coming months, who knows what bleak futures could be on the horizon for our California Golden Bears.

Cal (2-3) met the Mountain West’s UNLV (3-2) for the third time today at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. Offensive woes have punctuated the early Cal season, who looked to show improvement against an underperforming opponent. The Golden Bears’ first offensive possession began with a delay of game penalty before the first snap. Their defense got the Rebels off the field quickly, but standout safety Kingston Lopa sustained an injury and was helped off the field. Cal’s next possession was a single 91-yard pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele to Taimane Purcell. Chase Meyer’s extra point gave Cal an early 7-0 lead.

Returning standout safety Cam Sidney spotted UNLV 15 yards on the ensuing kickoff, after being called for targeting, shorting the Bears another starting defensive back. On UNLV’s next drive, Jackson Arnold found Kayden McGee for the Rebs’ own 70-yard explosive play, tying the game 7-7 with just over five minutes remaining in the first quarter. A UNLV punting disaster handed the Bears the ball around the Rebels’ 33 with less than a minute in the first quarter. Two plays later Sagapolutele threw an interception to defensive back Quandarius Keyes.

The second quarter opened with UNLV attempting a trick play that was picked off by Cal DB Aiden Manutai. The following Cal drive was punctuated by what felt like an unending assault on the quarterback. The following Rebels possession, Jackson Arnold broke free on a 3rd down QB keeper and scored a 55-yard touchdown on his feet giving UNLV the lead 14-7 with plenty of time left in the half.

On their next possession, the Rebels managed to get a fresh set of downs on a 4th down fake punt attempt. The Golden Bears held UNLV to a field goal, but gave them the ball back only a minute later, handing them a good bit of field by means of an illegal hands-to-the-face penalty. The next play Jackson Arnold found Taz Reddicks for a 36-yard touchdown bringing the score to 24-7 in the Rebels’ favor going into halftime. With seconds left in the half, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele sustained a hit to the head that caused him to exit the game for evaluation. He would not return.

Cal’s backup QB Jackson Brousseau found depth-chart gem running back Carson Perry-Smith for a 53-yard touchdown after Cal successfully recovered an attempted onside kick. Cooper Perry caught the two-point conversion. On the following play, UNLV’s returner lost control of the ball and Cal regained possession in the UNLV red zone. Unable to find the touchdown, the Bears called upon Townes McGough who completed a field goal from 38 to bring the score to 24-18 in the Rebels’ favor, with less than five minutes left in the third quarter.

A pass interference call against UNLV handed Cal first and goal on their next possession, and RB Ashten Emory ran it in the following play, and Chase Meyer’s extra point gave the Golden Bears the lead 25-24 with 11:38 left in regulation. On the following UNLV drive, Cal CB Daniel Harris was called for targeting and had to leave the game. On the next down, Jackson Arnold ran the ball 41 yards to the Cal 12. Arnold found Keyan Burnett in the end zone two plays later, and a roughing the passer call against Cal put the Rebels in position to call for a two-point attempt, which they achieved on a QB keeper bringing the score to 32-25 in UNLV’s favor.

Cal returner Niles Davis thought he had made a house call on the following return, but it was called back to midfield. Cal lost possession on downs giving the Rebels a short field which they capitalized on, with the help of a key DPI call on Cal. After some ineffectual running from their running back, QB Jackson Arnold once again found the end zone, making it a 39-25 ballgame in favor of the Rebels following the successful extra point attempt.

Cal took their final time out with around four minutes remaining. The drive ended with a touchdown catch from Ian Strong bringing the score to 39-31 with 28 seconds left in the game. It was Strong’s first touchdown of the year. The two-point conversion failed, was repeated half the distance to the goal line, and failed once more. Cal’s second onside kick attempt was unsuccessful and the game ended.

At the final blow of the whistle, Cal committed 16 penalties for 147 yards. UNLV has not lost a game they were leading at halftime since August 29th, when they did so to Memphis. Cal has not had a comeback victory from a 17+ point deficit since defeating Arizona State 48-46 in 2015. Cal hosts Virginia Tech next Saturday, October 10th.

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How to watch Cal v. UNLV college football

• When: Saturday, October 3rd, 2026

• Kick-Off Time: 12:30 p.m. Pacific

• Where: Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada

• TV: CBSSN

• Radio: KSFO 810 AM; Channel 81 on SiriusXM Radio and the SiriusXM app and website; The Varsity Network app; or the official Cal Bears YouTube channel

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How to watch Cal v. UNLV college football online

The Cal v. UNLV college football game will air on CBSSN.

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Christopher_h

Scoreline: Cal wins 14-3

In what is for sure definitely not cope, I predict 2 defensive TDs and a lockdown defensive performance for Cal. In reality, I had speculated earlier this season (before our offensive ineptitude was more fully revealed) that I thought Cal would probably beat Clemson and lose to UNLV. I'm also nervous about this one because I am going to this game, and I have not seen Cal win in person since, I think, either Auburn or the Big Game back in 2024 (I was also there for UNLV 2024, when Jacob De Jesus ran all over Cal), and so I don't really like our chances.

Rob Hwang

Scoreline: Cal wins 24-10

Tosh’s Tuesday presser was not just for show and vibes. We see meaningful changes on offense and can start to see the course correction.

Nick Kranz

Scoreline: Cal wins 17-13

Look we're all miserable and pessimistic right now, but Jackson Arnold falls apart when under any pressure, and Cal can bring pressure, and I ultimately think Cal's defense wins this game for the Bears regardless of whatever we see on the other side of the ball.

Yoav Shames

Scoreline: Cal wins 31-17

Logic defies any call for optimism, but this is not the UNLV team of past years. Additionally, a failure to have an offensive breakthrough against a G6 team may have me questioning my sanity.

Ben (Who Will Not Be Watching This Game But Instead On A Play to Disneyland With His Family)

Scoreline: Cal wins 24-20 (Ben consumes 1.5 Dole Whips)

It's a world of laughter
A world of tears
It's a world of hopes
And a world of fears
There's so much that we share
That it's time we're aware
It's a small world after all

Berkelium97

Scoreline: Cal loses 10-13

It's been over a decade since Cal has beaten a Mountain West team outside Memorial Stadium. This woeful offense is in no position to end that streak this weekend.

Piotr T Le

Scoreline: Cal Wins 21-17

It is not because Cal is good but because through the power of Oski and me attending the game in Vegas that we will win.

Welcome to the DBD, a Write for California community board where one can talk about anything – Cal-related or off-topic. Comment threads are sorted by topic. Anything is fine, so long as you're generally civil

Write For California is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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The biggest obstacle to that development would be for you to look outwards, to expect outside answers to questions that only your innermost feelings in your quietest moments have any chance of answering. - R. M. Rilke, Letter One, Paris, February 17, 1903

I must copy that advice and relay this to Coach Lupoi. Not just because it is and sounds wise (to poet and coach alike) but also regarding the fact that there is no trade deadline for us to take advantage of, there are no free agents, and unlike in EA College Football you can’t just swap out a playbook and hope it executes.

Within the program there are certain core principles HC Lupoi has made for the program, and I believe it is important to go inside them and ask ourselves if we have lived by them.

Relentless Effort

[…] every career is the same: full of demands upon you, full of hostility toward the individual,soak through as it where with the hatred of those who have stubbornly, sullenly found their way into this sober line of work. - R. M. Rilke, Letter Six, Rome, October 29. 1903

In the end there are two positions on the football field that are defined by relentless effort and that can be measured by modern statistics and advanced analytics: Offensive and defensive line.

Using HudlIQ we track every single run carry Cal has had in the 2026 season so far. The dots are where our ball carriers are first tackled and on the left hand side we can see the Cal’s distribution and our means relative to the FBS mean. The results are… sad. We have yet to notch a carry where the player was not touched before the 10+ yard line, the mean carry of a Cal RB is basically hit at the line of scrimmage and when hit we generate less than the national mean in yards after contact.

I do not believe we improved on the offensive line run blocking wise, even with the addition of a great RB in Adam Mohammed. The view is a little more encouraging on the offensive line. Here I will spout a heresy on Cal social media: 2026 Cal pass protection isn’t bad. It is just just around mediocre.

The only true issue is the C gap between the RT and TE which is a tough spot since JKS is a lefty QB who is showing signs of a Sophomore slump. Of course anyone can recall a bad snap (ie. Vatikani getting blow up for a sack in a DT/DE stunt against Clemson) but those aren’t as common as they were in 2025 where this was the chart:

YIKES

Looking on the otherside of the ball the story is roughly as bleak as it can at least in defending the run

We’re slightly below average in all tackling metrics in the run game and there is a lot of issues to be clean up with run busts happening in each game (UCLA, the whole game, Wagner had a huge QB scramble to set up their only TD, Syracuse had the game starting run, and Clemson final TD).

Ball Excellence

Do I have to write coach football? Dig deep into yourself for the answer. And if it is yes, if you can meet this solemn question with a strong and simple “I must”, then build yourself around that necessity. - R. M. Rilke, Letter One, Paris, February 17, 1903

Ball excellence is all about executing the offense at a high level. And on this front we’re struggling mightily. For example below we see every single pass placement JKS has where he is missing his receiver right to his left and high.

This issue can also explain the lack of Ian Strong’s production where a lot of his passes have been vertical misses where I assume JKS is trying to get him the ball in 50/50 contested catch situations and it looks more like 1/10 case with Strong right now.

Taking a look on a more positive side: Kingston Lopa has had a good season… if you ignore the success rate allowed in his play. As much of a ball hawk he can be, there are issues with his coverage abilities where when he allows a catch or a missed run tackle it tends to be disastrous for the team.

Something worth noting is that both Ricky Fletcher and Damien Harris are having really good seasons. However, we do have to note that the best QB we have faced passing the ball is … Nico Iamaeava?

Catch separation being a big measure of how close the guys are when the ball is at the hands of the skill player Ricky and Daniel are there to make it very hard to make the catch.

Power of Unit

Merging, surrendering, entering into a union of any kind is not for them (who must still spend a long, long time gathering and saving up) - no that is the last step, the ultimate thing that even a human life may be barely big enough to contain. - R. M. Rilke, Letter Seven, Rome, May 14, 1904

Looking more big picture on both sides of the ball, Cal offense is… offensive? Outside of the sack percentage there isn’t anywhere else the offense has showered itself in glory in any aspect of the game.

Defensively we have been able to really put a stamp on the opposing offenses by really stifling the passing game. Though we are not doing too hot on the rushing front with the Chunk % and yards per rush being on the high side. We could also do a better job reducing a team’s drive success rate (pct. chance a team converts a down on a given drive).

Focusing back on the offense we can see that the offense is more effective out of 3x2 empty sets and from 12 sets across the board. We have tried some 21 looks but have not gotten any good returns from them. We do run 11 (1 RB, 1 TE)and 12 (1 RB, 2 TE) looks more often than the rest of the field.

There is a efficiency to be had where the team gets positive outcomes from a success rate perspective out of Empty 3 x 2 looks with 1 RB and 2 TEs. This allows for the best pass catchers to be on the field, and for JKS to be able to pick and stick with his throwing.

Final Thoughts

Trust yourself and your own feelings, every time, over any of these explications, discussions, or introductions. If it turns out you’re wrong, the natural growth of your inner life will eventually lead you to new heights. - R. M. Rilke, Letter Three, Viareggio near Pisa, Italy, April 23, 1903

There is a lot, a lot, left to be desired from this coaching staff. Thanks to HudlIQ we can see where the scheme and players can improve. It is therefore contingent for the team to find it within themselves and the team for solutions. Pass protection from JKS’ blind side, run fits and tackling, pass location specifically towards Ian Strong, and a schematic wrinkle in the empty 3x2 sets we can lean on to generate successful plays.

With his initial stake of chips dwindling after losing multiple starting hands, Tosh Lupoi and his team will have to go all-in this week in Sin City to ensure that hopes of a season revival are more realistic than a desert mirage.

Standing in their way are the UNLV Rebels, once perennial G6 contenders who have fallen down a peg during Head Coach Dan Mullen’s second campaign. However, they stand to be a formidable road foe for a reeling Cal team. The man in charge of ensuring that the Bears trip to Las Vegas makes a convincing case for a future script of The Hangover Part IV is Paul Guenther. The former NFL coach ran the Raiders defense during their inaugural seasons in Vegas. Though his professional pedigree is impressive, he had no previous FBS coaching experience (words which have caused the streets of Berkeley to shudder in recent weeks). On staff with him is former UNLV DC Mike Scherer, who returns to help jolt a Rebel defense that he coached to a degree of success with back-to-back 10-win seasons. All of which is to say: Cal’s fresh-faced coordinators will be facing off against a well-seasoned coaching staff.

UNLV has the 83rd-ranked defense entering the week. They give up about 150 rushing yards per game and are rated a pedestrian 41.3% Success Rate Allowed. Of particular note are the 44 points that the Rebels gave up to a depleted North Texas team several weeks ago. Though they don’t rank highly on any significant defensive metrics, Cal’s offense has of late made many defenses look far better than they do on paper. Most importantly, Dan Mullen’s squad sports the highest-graded transfer portal class of any G6 program, meaning that the DNA for a stifling defense is there.

Schematically, UNLV runs a multiple 3-3-5 defense, meaning 3 down linemen, 3 linebackers, and 5 defensive backs. This is a style that disguises coverages well and often uses simulated pressure. If Cal is looking to change up the offensive play calling, outside runs, which have been scantly attempted due to poor blocking, might be a nice alteration to make against this look.

The fulcrum of talent is clearly its secondary. Experienced DB play made it extremely difficult for Cal’s passing attack last week, and similar trouble could be awaiting them at Allegiant Stadium. Tre Fulton, Mumu Bin-Wahad, and Jake Pope are returners who headline this group. Tre Fulton in particular has been a standout, with 3 sacks, an interception, a Forced Fumble, and 3 Passes defended. Along the trenches, California native and top 15 EDGE recruit in the state Kal-El Togafau is a redshirt freshman standout who has already notched 2 sacks. Another threat in the box will be Cam Santee, UNLV’s Senior LB and Mountain West Defensive Player of the Week, who has tallied 27 tackles and an INT. Preseason All-Conference DL Lucas Conti has the size to be a force along the interior, and despite not yet lighting up the stat sheet, Kamuela Ka'aihue at LB is a player that fans should look out for.

A glaring vulnerability is that UNLV struggles mightily with missed tackles, racking up 29 of them against North Texas alone. They may get a brief respite from the glaring nature of this issue if Cal RB Adam Mohammed isn’t ready to go, but it could prove to be an unsolved issue which a tune-up game against Akron didn't fix. Additionally, the Rebels’ pass rush is likely to look rather bland compared to UCLA and Clemson, as they don’t have marquee pass rush talent on the level of those programs.

Throwing the ball over the middle, play action, and pre-snap motion need to be further incorporated into the Bears’ pass attack in order to disrupt this defense. Faced with a strong secondary against which Cal receivers may struggle to create by themselves, Jordan Somerville has to force UNLV Linebackers into tough coverage matchups.

For California this weekend, the chips are all in on a desperate hand to save the season. Gone is the safety of preseason plans and calm confidence; it is time to roll the dice, put it all on red, make a wish, and pull the slot lever.

May this be the only time where the house loses in Vegas.

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Central Michigan - 6 Miami ( Miami wins 52-3)

Ben (Who Did Not Watch A Single Game on Saturday For Self Care Reasons and Had A Lovely Weekend With Visiting Family) - What to Do When Life Sucks: How to Stay Positive: Try these expert-backed tips to improve your life and be happier

Christopher Helling - You know, I actually saw this exact CMU game once before: it was when I watched CMU versus Wagner (2025), when CMU completely out-talented a clearly overmatched Wagner squad. These were two teams on two clearly different levels. CMU hung on for about a quarter, but once the game broken open, it was over. Also, what a ridiculous touchdown by WR Malachi Toney that was reversed on a nonexistent PI. That still goes into the highlight clips.

Wake Forest - 16 Louisville (Wake Forest wins 30-27)

Ben (Who Did Not Watch A Single Game on Saturday For Self Care Reasons and Had A Lovely Weekend With Visiting Family) - A number of situations can arise throughout a lifetime that may cause a person to feel that their life sucks. This may include a football teams identity completely disappearing, zero offensive touchdowns, a 75-yard touchdown run on a 3rd and 8, the student section being given projectiles, etc. In all of these situations it is normal to feel low. Yet it is also important to realize that it is possible to rebound from these situations in time through positive thinking, that is by thinking about problems in a more optimistic and productive way. In addition, there are a number of strategies you can consider to help return to happiness and to regain a positive view of life.

Nick Kranz - The difference in this game was basically field goal kicking, but that’s the impressive part for Wake and the concerning part for Louisville - Wake went on the road and played the Cardinals dead even for four quarters and won because they made their kicks and Louisville didn’t.

Christopher Helling - Tons of unnecessary penalties in this one on both teams, keeping drives alive for both teams, but probably more costly penalties by Louisville. Louisville gave up multiple busted coverages for huge WF TDs by WR Carlos Hernandez, who racked up 194 receiving yards. Louisville has a good pass rusher in DE Clev Lubin, but their defense overall is very suspect. QB Lincoln Kienholz had some nice throws and does a good job spreading the field out with his throws for nice drives (and had a nice rush TD), but Louisville made too many mistakes when playing from behind WF, missing a FG and having another blocked at the end of the game when down by 3. WF is performing well, better than the sum of their parts.

Missouri State - 22 SMU (SMU wins 34-24)

Ben (Who Did Not Watch A Single Game on Saturday For Self Care Reasons and Had A Lovely Weekend With Visiting Family) - What to Do When Life Sucks: How to Stay Positive: Try these expert-backed tips to improve your life and be happier. Keep a journal. One way to figure out a possible cause for your feelings is to identify when you feel them. Keeping a journal will also allow you to identify what elements of your situation you have control over, which will help you stay positive. In general, you should remember that you cannot control anything other than your own actions and responses.

Nick Kranz - SMU is really fond of self-immolation. Two turnovers, one missed 4th down, 12 penalties, and two missed field goals that turned a blowout into an oddly tight game. You can get away with this kind of crap against Missouri State and Florida State, but it’s going to cost the Mustangs against somebody later this year.

Christopher Helling - I've never seen a team so good at beating themselves and yet manage to win anyway. I can recall multiple SMU wins where they overcame a 5 turnover deficit, and this one felt similarly lopsided despite the score (at any point of the game). SMU outgained Missouri State 378 yards to 112 yards at halftime, but managed only a 14-10 lead (largely due to two costly turnovers). Missouri State kept finding success with high difficulty plays (e.g. an endzone fade into tight coverage), and was only down 21-18 late in the 4th quarter. I kind of feel like SMU may have been running a vanilla playbook, expecting to blowout Missouri St as 34.5-point favorites and have backups in during the 4th quarter, but when they found themselves in a dogfight, they had to crack it open a bit. SMU finally got home with pressure late in the game (and an injured QB after a sack pretty much doomed Missouri St), leading to a 4th down INT, short field, and immediate 23-yard TD the next play to make the score a little more respectable. Worth mentioning is that Missouri State coach Casey Woods was SMU coach Rhett Lashlee’s offensive coordinator from 2022-25 and they are long-time friends (and many SMU assistants are at Missouri St now), so this may also be a case of someone knowing your weaknesses a little too well.

Bucknell - Pittsburgh (Pitt wins 59-0)

Ben (Who Did Not Watch A Single Game on Saturday For Self Care Reasons and Had A Lovely Weekend With Visiting Family) - What to Do When Life Sucks: How to Stay Positive: Try these expert-backed tips to improve your life and be happier. Recognize when you are thinking negatively. It is important to realize your negative thinking so that you can begin to change negativity into positivity. Negative thinkers tend to always anticipate the worst in a situation. In addition, they are quick to blame themselves for anything bad that has happened. Moreover, negative thinkers tend to magnify the negative aspects of any given situation. They also tend to polarize a situation, only seeing things as good or bad.

Christopher Helling - Narrow wins over UCF and Syracuse, but blowouts over Miami-Ohio and now Bucknell. We'll see if they are for real next Friday against a good Virginia Tech team.

Virginia Tech - Boston College (Virginia Tech wins 21-14)

Ben (Who Did Not Watch A Single Game on Saturday For Self Care Reasons and Had A Lovely Weekend With Visiting Family) - What to Do When Life Sucks: How to Stay Positive: Try these expert-backed tips to improve your life and be happier. Recognize when you are thinking negatively. It is important to realize your negative thinking so that you can begin to change negativity into positivity. Negative thinkers tend to always anticipate the worst in a situation. In addition, they are quick to blame themselves for anything bad that has happened. Moreover, negative thinkers tend to magnify the negative aspects of any given situation. They also tend to polarize a situation, only seeing things as good or bad.

Nick Kranz - The final score was a little deceptive thanks to 4th down failures from Virginia Tech, but this still might be a warning sign that Tech is still a year away from full-blown ACC contender status.

Christopher Helling - The Nor'easter weather conditions (heavy rain, high wind) made it very difficult to throw the ball, which probably helped BC and their dual-threat QB out a lot more than VT. I started to think that BC might pull the upset in this one, but a 76-yard rushing TD by VT broke the game open at 21-14 VT in the 4th quarter, and then they just needed to play keep-away at that point. BC really need to find a better offense game plan than QB power run, because I don't think McKenzie will stay healthy all season if they don't.

Central Arkansas - Florida State (Florida State wins 34-7)

Ben (Who Did Not Watch A Single Game on Saturday For Self Care Reasons and Had A Lovely Weekend With Visiting Family) - Change negative thinking into positive thinking. Try to check in on your thoughts regularly during the day. Identify what you normally think about in a negative way and put a positive spin on your thoughts. It also helps to surround yourself with positive people, as negative people can increase stress and increase your own negativity.

Christopher Helling - Only caught this one waiting for other games, but FSU Could make you forget that Central Arkansas is an FCS squad. FSU really needs a serious QB if they want to start competing in the ACC again. I don't know how QB Ashton Daniels can neglect WR Duce Robinson at receiver as much as he does. Although shout-out to the broadcast team for the picture of Central Arkansas WR Mike Norvell with cornrows.

WIlliam & Mary - Duke (Duke wins 42-3)

Ben (Who Did Not Watch A Single Game on Saturday For Self Care Reasons and Had A Lovely Weekend With Visiting Family) - Try not to define yourself by your football team. It can feel like where you are in the top 25 (or on any of the dreaded Monday graphs) in life defines who you are. If you're in an environment that sucks, it can be hard to remain positive. Focus on your innate qualities, rather than the situation around you. Remember: the situation is always temporary.

Christopher Helling - Nate Sheppard's 116 rushing yards (on 9 carries) was actually a season-low for him.

Delaware - Virginia (Virginia wins 42-3)

Ben (Who Did Not Watch A Single Game on Saturday For Self Care Reasons and Had A Lovely Weekend With Visiting Family) - Get out and be social again. Oftentimes people who feel that their life sucks will remove themselves from social contact. Ironically, this can be a further cause of depression. Take small steps to get yourself back into social circles again.

Christopher Helling - Delaware gave Vanderbilt a tough time so I was expecting more from Delaware here, but they lost their starting QB to injury early on in this one, and Delaware was simply out-talented after that. Virginia is just the textbook example of how fundamental a good offensive and defensive line are for a team's success, and how you don't necessarily need future NFL stars on the roster to find success. I was also impressed with WR Kam Courtney though, he wasn't on my radar before this, but he showed up here.

App State - NC State (NC State wins 41-31)

Ben (Who Did Not Watch A Single Game on Saturday For Self Care Reasons and Had A Lovely Weekend With Visiting Family) - Exercise regularly and eat a healthy diet. Exercising three times a week has been shown to relieve mild to moderate depression. It will help you feel better about yourself, help you sleep better and can even improve mood. Eating a healthy diet is another way to help with depression. Limit your alcohol intake to one drink per day and eat a wide variety of healthy foods. You should also avoid drugs, smoking, and other habits that are detrimental to your health.

Christopher Helling - NC State is bipolar. One week they're beating an SEC team (just kidding), the next week they're threatening a loss to the Sun Belt. NC State was dominating this one early (28-7 in the first half), only to fall apart in the second half as App State found their rhythm to tie this one up 31-31 in the 4th quarter. I'm still relatively unimpressed with QB CJ Bailey, but it seems RB Jayden (Duke) Scott was integral to their success, as they tried to give him a rest in the 3rd quarter and their offense stalled without him. NCSU brought Scott back for another scoring drive, and narrowly avoided another embarrassing face plant.

Nick Kranz - I guess when you're coming off of the worst kind of loss, the manner and style of your next W is entirely immaterial. Congrats on surviving, Wolfpack.

Georgia Tech - Stanford (Stanford wins 34-27)

Ben (Who Did Not Watch A Single Game on Saturday For Self Care Reasons and Had A Lovely Weekend With Visiting Family) - Try meditation and repeat a meaningful mantra. Repetitive messages, whether positive or negative, can have a big effect on the psyche. Replace all the noise with positivity by filling your mind with meaningful thoughts. Pick a mantra that helps you get through the day. Repeat it when you feel overwhelmed, and each time you do, think about what it really means.

Nick Kranz - Davis Warren would be a fun and inspiring story if he was doing this for literally any other university.

Christopher Helling - GT is so Cal-coded. GT has (I think) 3 starters on the offensive line out due to injury, and their offensive line could not hold up against pressure, forcing QB Alberto Mendoza to try and do too much himself (which culminated in Mendoza going 32 yards the wrong way on a 3rd down in the redzone on their potential game-tying drive to set up an impossible 4th and 45 with the game on the line, not to mention the QB/WR miscommunication the previous drive that resulted in an INT). GT had success when they leaned on their run game, but they had to start passing it more when they fell behind and their offense couldn't find that same success. Conversely, GT did a good job of stopping Stanford's run game, but I was (unfortunately) really impressed with Stanford's offensive gameplan to scheme receivers open, because QB Davis Warren needs receivers wide open if he's going to have any success through the air.

Any other thoughts on the teams?

Ben (Who Did Not Watch A Single Game on Saturday For Self Care Reasons and Had A Lovely Weekend With Visiting Family) - Figure out what life means to you. People who feel that life has a purpose tend to be happier than those who think it's meaningless. Have you ever taken time to think about the meaning of life? No one can truly know the answer to this universal question. However, you can decide what life means to you. Finding the meaning in your life will help you keep getting out of bed every day, even when things are at their worst.

Nick Kranz - Thank goodness we’re mostly done with non-conference play, which was largely full of deeply uninteresting competition.

Christopher Helling - It took a lot of motivation to watch ACC games all weekend after what Cal did on Friday. If Cal could get a few more back in the win column soon, that would be nice, thanks.

Andy and Rob unpack Cal’s frustrating loss to Clemson, the offense’s struggles, and the pressure surrounding Tosh Lupoi’s first season. They also look ahead to UNLV, where Cal has a chance to respond and show signs of improvement.

Read more

The Write for California staff has many writers who are interested in statistics and data visualization. We each take different approaches to our analysis, and this variety lends comprehensive insight into the team. Or, it would if there were any depth or nuance to be understood about the data about this Cal offense. It’s bad. It can’t move the ball, it can’t score, and it turns the ball over too much. There are only so many charts and tables we can use to convey what is abundantly clear to everyone with eyes (and even people without). Anyway, with that glowing recommendation for statistical analysis of Cal offense out of the way (hey, the defense and special teams are still interesting!), let’s dive into some ratings from Cal’s performance against Clemson.

BCF Ratings

Our friends at BCF Toys used FEI data to evaluate possession-level measures capturing team performance. These largely capture performance based on how well Cal moved the ball and how well they turned possessions into points, with the reverse capturing how well the defense performed. They even evaluate the impact of special teams on scoring, an impact that was painfully felt on Friday.

Offensive Ratings

We illustrate the ratings with boxplots, which capture the spread of the data. The box represents data between the 25th and 75th percentiles, and the horizonal line represents the median, or midpoint of the data. I have written some variant of those two previous sentence so many times over the years that I would not be surprised if some hooligan inscribes them on my headstone.

The ratings are bad across the board. The Game Rating and Efficiency rating show that the offense generated very little scoring value with each possession. The Points per Drive rating was the second-lowest we have seen over the past 20 years—only the 2019 shutout loss at Utah was worse. The Scoring Rate is slightly more charitable because it rewards the offense for getting into field goal range (even if the field goal is missed), and Cal twice found their way into field goal range. Overall, those ratings indicate that Cal was utterly unable to turn possessions into points. And the Yards per Play and Available Yards measures indicate that Cal was also woefully inefficient and unproductive at moving the ball. In sum, Cal could not move the ball far or with any degree of consistency and they could not generate points—not ideal.

Defensive Ratings

This is the typical profile of a moderately successful bend-but-don’t-break defense. Efficiency and Points per Drive were decent, suggesting that Cal was successfully limiting Clemson’s ability to score (although that lower Game Rating grades Efficiency on a curve and tells us that Clemson’s offense is bad, somehow with a lower rating than Cal’s offense according to FEI). The Scoring Rate also took a step back compared to Efficiency and PPD, because Cal consistently let Clemson get in scoring range, but the Tigers struggled to turn those yards into touchdowns. Yards per Play and Available Yards were mediocre, suggesting that Cal was letting Clemson move the ball moderately well. Put all those ratings together and you get a classic bend-but-don’t-break: the opponent has opportunities to move the ball but struggles to turn that yardage into points.

Special Teams

Special teams were bad across the board, with exception to Field Goals. Efficiency (and its related, opponent-adjusted Game Rating) were awful, indicating that special teams was a net negative for Cal (the offside giving Clemson a first down that continued a TD drive and the punt return for a TD stand out). Thanks to the punt return for a TD, Punting earned a terrible rating. Meanwhile kickoffs earned another bad rating because Cal consistently allowed decent returns while failing to generate anything positive on our own kick returns.

BCF Clusters

With an abundance of bad ratings, this one seems destined for our ignominious cluster…

Indeed, this one fell into The Bad. Relatedly, last week’s extremely unusual win in The Bad has since migrated to the Rockfights; the boundaries of these categories remain ever-changing. This game was far from the worst of The Bad (losses on the lower and right sides are particularly painful), and instead sits near the Rockfights. This one certainly had the feel of a Rockfight and may have stayed a Rockfight if not for Clemson’s game-sealing 75-yard TD in the waning minutes. Alas, another Bad. That’s 2 Bads and 1 Bad-turned-Rockfight in Lupoi’s first three FBS games. Not a great start to a new era of Cal football.

Deja Vu

I compared the ratings from this disaster to all previous BCF ratings to determine which game was most similar and the winner is…2008 Oregon State (Cal lost 21-34). Although Cal surrendered 34 points, the defense was only responsible for one TD drive thanks to a kickoff returned for a TD, a punt returned to the Cal 2-yard-line, and a pick six. And like this past game, Cal struggled to find the end zone and relied on a double-pass play (shout out WR Jeremy Ross!) for one of its rare TDs (the other two were courtesy of a 65-yard Jahvid Best run and a 51-yard kick return by Best to set up a short field). Like Friday night’s game, this one featured some awful quarterbacking (neither QB completed more than 50%) and many unsuccessful drives (14 punts, and nearly as many combined punting yards as total yards). What a fun throwback.

UNLV is led by head coach Dan Mullen, the former Mississippi State and Florida head coach (and Wagner alum who got his start coaching as Wagner’s WR coach, in case you missed that fact buried in the 9,577 words and 155 video clips I included in my Wagner articles). After 2024’s head coach Barry Odom was poached by Purdue after a 10-2 regular season (just prior to the LA Bowl), Dan Mullen took over in 2025 and kept that momentum going, leading UNLV to another 10-win regular season (although UNLV had losses in the MWC Championship and bowl game to finish 10-4 overall).

Kind of similar to Mullen rehabilitating his coaching image after being fired from his last SEC job, UNLV remains an attractive place for talented players looking to bounce back after falling short at previous destinations. In 2025, Mullen brought to Vegas sixteen former 4- or 5-star players, with 33 of them having P4 experience, and have kept that trend going heading into 2026:

UNLV runs a pro spread offense with a dual threat quarterback. When an opponent drops defenders into coverage, this gives UNLV a lighter box to run the ball. UNLV will try to spread the defense out in the passing game, both horizontally and vertically (and UNLV will run 4-verts quite a bit), to make it easier to run the ball. When defenses commit defenders into stopping the run (especially because you also have to account for the QB), this gives the quarterback receivers to attack in one-on-one man coverage. UNLV can then run zone-read or RPO plays and attack the run or pass depending on what the defense is giving them.

UNLV was founded in 1957, as you may have learned from Ben’s Wurster Hall this week (as I did). They spun off as an extension of the University of Nevada, Reno (i.e. the Nevada Wolfpack), which makes them the UCLA of Nevada schools in my eyes. They named themselves the Rebels, which I had assumed was some sort of Civil War reference, but realized that doesn’t make sense given their relatively recent founding. To quote the UNLV website:

UNLV’s nickname dates to the university’s origin in the mid-1950s, a time when a nation founded by rebels once again became obsessed with the idea of the iconic nonconformist. The decade of the 1950s was epitomized by young people rebelling against their parents’ middle-class American values. From popular motion pictures such as 1953’s The Wild One starring Marlon Brando and 1955’s Rebel Without a Cause starring James Dean, to “rebellious” musicians, such as Elvis Presley and the beginnings of rock and roll as it emerged from American blues music, the spirit of the times was rebellion.

So I’m supposed to believe the Running Reb is basically George Washington, mad at his parents? “1950s middle-class American values” is certainly vague, and while I’m sure it includes things like the nuclear “traditional” family, suburbanization, and whatever else boomers were up to, I can’t help feel like this rebellious spirit is missing one crucial aspect of 1950s American values deserving rebellion.

On the other hand, the “Hey Reb!” mascot originally wore a Confederate uniform, so maybe the Rebel was exactly who I thought he was.

UNLV is 2-2 so far this season, suffering a close loss to a good Memphis team and a blowout loss to North Texas (44-6). In defense of that North Texas result, I have never seen such effective home field advantage: the game kicked off at 2:45pm local time in 100+ degree weather, and exactly half of the stadium is shaded with the other side cooking in the sun. UNLV went on to have 3 fumbles, missed tackles all day on defense, and stalled out on offense multiple times in the redzone. They’ve also handled business against a bad Hawaii team (who also lost to Stanford) and a very bad Akron team. That means that Cal will be an effective measuring stick game for them: are they winning because they’re playing well, or because they’ve had a favorable schedule so far?

Quarterback

UNLV is led at quarterback by former class of 2023 5-star quarterback, Jackson Arnold. I mentioned this in the Syracuse article, but after Arnold, Cal will have faced all of the 5-star quarterbacks from the class of 2023 except for #1 Arch Manning. (I count Malachi Nelson in this one, because he saw Cal from the sidelines at both USC and Syracuse). So I definitely see a future showdown between Cal and #1 Texas (likely in the CFP) just so Cal can tick off that box. (Kidding, obviously).

Arnold started his career behind Dillon Gabriel at Oklahoma, before taking over in 2024 and leading Oklahoma to a 6-7 record. He transferred to Auburn in 2025, where he was ultimately benched for former Stanford (now FSU) QB Ashton Daniels (yikes). Arnold has struggled with his consistency, and he now looks to put up some solid numbers in his senior season at UNLV and establish himself as a legitimate NFL prospect.

As you would expect from a former 5-star QB, Arnold has the tools, he has just struggled to translate them into his game. He has a strong arm, quick release, and can throw with some velocity, and he has the athleticism to create his own yards on the ground running the ball. However, he’s also struggled with his accuracy at times, as well as his placement on deep throws.

Here Arnold shows some nice touch and placement on this throw:

Arnold is tough, and one of his knocks against him at his previous stops of Oklahoma and Auburn was his tendency to hold onto the ball too long and eat sacks. And while that may be true, it’s also because he’s not afraid to stand in the pocket and deliver:

Arnold has a tendency to roll out and throw on the run, often using all arm strength or inconsistent mechanics with his off-platform throws (hence the occasional misfires). When he can set his feet, he can stand and deliver nice throws:

Arnold is very escapable in the pocket, and he will often look to extend plays with his feet (although watch his lower half as he throws this one):

However, sometimes his throwing mechanics break down, and it seems like his lower body is not in sync with his upper body. Here’s an example where he lets his accuracy get away from him:

Here Arnold has time, but still sails the throw high:

Arnold is also prone to misfiring even on easy throws:

Arnold is a dual-threat quarterback, and he’s the team’s second leading rusher. He will run zone-read, option-read plays, QB draws, QB power, etc., and not to mention all of his unscheduled scrambles. Here Arnold successfully navigates pressure to turn this into a positive gain on the ground:

And when Arnold has room to run, he can really gash a defense:

UNLV will incorporate Arnold into the run game:

And here he is on the draw:

Arnold runs with power, and will look to level a defender:

Earlier in the season, UNLV utilized their backup QB, the 6’3” 240 lbs. Alex Orji, on some gadget plays, so I figured I’d include that here:

Cal has already faced a similar quarterback to Arnold this season in Nico Iamaleava, although I’d say that Arnold is quite a fair bit better throwing the ball, but not quite the same level of talent running the ball as Iamaleava. Interestingly, they’re pretty close on paper (Arnold: 891 yards passing, 61.3% completions, 5 pass TDs, 0 INTs, 160 rush yards, 3 rush TDs; Iamaleava: 820 yards passing, 62.6% completions, 4 pass TDs, 2 INTs, 143 rush yards, 1 rush TDs), although I guess you have to give Iamaleava a little more credit for the more difficult schedule (although Purdue and Maryland may end up Big Ten bottom-feeders, who knows). Regardless, Cal will need to keep Arnold contained, force him into more difficult throws, and not allow Arnold to extend drives on his own.

Running back

UNLV returns their top rusher from 2024 and 2025, senior Jai’Den “Jet” Thomas. I covered Jai’Den Thomas once before (in my 2024 LA Bowl Preview) and it’s interesting looking back and seeing what I got right and wrong in retrospect. For instance, I had nothing but positive things to say about Jacob De Jesus, Ricky White III was drafted in the NFL (though I didn’t know he’d sit out the bowl game) and I think my Jai’Den Thomas section still stands, but I was also clearly wrong in asserting that Cal’s Jaivian “Jet” Thomas was the better of the Jet Thomases. We can’t always be right.

Jai’Den Thomas returns after a 1000+ yard season last year, and was a balanced part of the offense in complementing QB Anthony Colandrea last year. Although Anthony Colandrea and Jackson Arnold have comparable play styles, I think that Colandrea (now at Nebraska) was more of a focal point for opposing defenses than Arnold might be, and so Jai’Den Thomas will have his work cut out for him this season as he’ll likely be a bigger focus for defenses this year.

Although I stand by my original statement that Jai’Den Thomas doesn’t have elite breakaway speed, he’s still a homerun threat if opposing defenses take poor angles:

Thomas still loves his spin move, and he runs tougher than you may expect for someone of his size:

Here he breaks another big run:

And again:

UNLV has a pretty good offensive line, and Thomas shows nice patience in letting his blocks develop:

And here’s that spin move I mentioned earlier:

Here Thomas shows a nice stiff-arm to spring him free:

UNLV will also get Thomas involved in the passing game, typically on swing passes out wide to stretch the field horizontally, or wheel routes to test linebackers in coverage:

Here Thomas shows some nice hands on the wheel route:

And this one’s just a busted coverage:

Backing up Thomas is former Utah RB Jaylon Glover, who, unsurprisingly, I covered once before in an WFC article back in 2023 (it’s ridiculous how often I can find players I’ve covered before in the transfer portal era). Glover is the power back to complement Thomas’s scat back, but Glover also likes the spin move:

Glover shows nice patience on runs:

Lastly, Darrien Jones saw some relief work, and he caught a couple passes:

However, you can expect QB Jackson Arnold and RB Jai’Den Thomas to split most of the carries on the ground.

Receivers

UNLV’s leading receiver is Oregon State transfer, WR Taz Reddicks (mentioned very briefly in my previous articles, although I didn’t really have any thoughts about him at the time: 2024, 2025). This year, Reddicks has established himself as a viable deep threat (even from the slot), often running nice routes to get open deep down field:

Reddicks has shown some reliable hands, doing a nice job of catching everything thrown his way:

Here Reddicks makes a nice adjustment to the throw:

The next most targeted receiver is the X-receiver, Taeshaun Lyons, another Utah transfer. Here Lyons also makes a nice adjustment to the throw:

Lyons hasn’t had a ton of highlights so far this season, but he, for some reason, frequently finds himself the beneficiary of busted coverages. Here Lyons makes a nice catch in traffic last year:

And here’s some of those coverage busts; here he slows down to make the catch:

And here he shows his speed in turning this one into a 72-yard touchdown:

The next most targeted receiver after Reddicks and Lyons is actually the running back, Jai’Den Thomas. But after Thomas, it’s the Z-receiver, Kayden McGee, who creates a ton of separation here:

And here McGee runs a nice slant:

UNLV doesn’t rely a ton on their tight ends in the passing game, but here they split out both of their tight ends to the boundary side, showing they at least consider their tight ends like Keyan Burnett as viable receivers:

Also at WR-Z is DeAngelo Irvin, who showed some nice hands as well:

Backing up Lyons at WR-X is the redshirt freshman Tavian McNair (a former Cal recruiting target, by the way), another speedy receiver skilled in the art of catching off-target passes:

There’s also the 6’4” freshman WR-Z Vincent Carner, who robs a potential interception here:

And finally, there’s TE Matt Byrnes (the receiver lined up out wide in the previous Keyan Burnett clip) running a route, but here he drops the would-be score:

UNLV has a lot of capable receivers, even if none of them set the world on fire by themselves.

Special teams / miscellaneous

I don’t really want to focus too much on special teams, because we can safely summarize special teams sections from this point forward as “they’re probably better than ours,” but I did want to point out a few things (mainly the punter).

I was never a fan of the new rule to punish teams with a timeout if a player goes down with an injury after the ball is set, because in 95% of the games I watched, it inadvertently punished teams and players with legitimate injuries, and this rule is only necessary because modern sportsmanship has gone out the window as the Lane Kiffins of the world do everything in their power to game the rules (or lackthereof, or find a local judge to disagree with those rules, or whatever). However, in addition to discouraging the Kiffins, this was one (if not the only) time I can remember it properly punishing a team for violating the spirit of the game:

However, the real reason I wanted a special teams section was to cover the punter, Matt Choules. He’s a pretty good punter:

But the reason he gets his own section is that UNLV will actively try to cause muffed punts. UNLV calls it the “tornado kick”, where he kicks the low line-drive punt with a lot of spin to try and make the returner bobble or drop the kick:

I had actually misremembered the tornado kick working (and rewatched every UNLV punt this season), but I realized now it was because I saw it in the SMU-FSU game, where FSU punter Daniel Hughes successfully forced a muffed punt with his “tornado kick.” These Australian punters tend to go through the same training, with FSU’s Daniel Hughes and UNLV’s Matt Choules both having attended the ProKick Australia, a kicking and punting academy to help transition Australian athletes (who do a lot of punting in Australian rules football) to American college football.

It’s also worth remembering the last time UNLV got tricky with a punt against Cal. I’m not necessarily saying it would happen, but I wouldn’t be terribly surprised of another Cal special teams disaster, which is why I’m mentioning it here.

Conclusion

UNLV has been one of the best non-power conference teams these past two years, even if they fell short of a Mountain West Conference championship both times to Boise State (who went to the CFP in 2024). I think they’re due for a step back, as I’m not sold on QB Jackson Arnold rising to the level that Anthony Colandrea was last year, nor UNLV replacing their top 4 receivers from last season. However, the run game should remain consistent, and a competent run game and a halfway decent defense will do just fine. Cal most certainly has the talent to overwhelm UNLV, but we’ve to see them play like it so far this season. Cal needs to get their act together in a hurry, because Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, SMU, NC State, Virginia, and Pitt are also talented teams (there’s one more team on the schedule I’m forgetting, but they’re probably not any good), and Cal’s not going to be able to win any of those games without some semblance of an offense.

As always,

Go Bears.

You can find my full clips here.

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Allegiant Stadium - Toilet Valhalla

For many Cal Fans visiting Allegiant Stadium, this will be the first time witnessing the glory and splendor of the San Francisco Los Angeles Oakland Las Vegas Raiders new stadium. Cal of course was supposed to open up the stadium alongside UNLV in 2020 way back on August 29th and that’s enough about that!

I am sad that us fans never got to stress test it, much like they did back in June 2020. I never realized this was a significant part of game day operations for a team, but you learn something new every day! Anyways, that led me to discover Allegiant Stadium has a whopping 297 restrooms with nearly 1400 toilets! Wow! What a feat of engineering. But I’ll take the 90+ Stadium Rim Porta Potty’s every couple Saturdays thank you.

The History of Concrete

Next, we’ll jump in to stadium construction. Allegiant Stadium was of course completed in 2020 while California Memorial Stadium was built in 1922. California Memorial Stadium used approximately 50,000 cubic yards of concrete to build the stadium while Allegiant required double that at 105,000 cub yards of concrete, which according to their website “is enough to pave a sidewalk from Los Angeles to Las Vegas”. What an odd measurement! But you have to give the edge here to Cal, being efficient with the public dollars!

All Hail The Sphere

Next we take a look at a critical statistic, namely quite literally how our QBs stack up. As a comparison, we’ll use the neutral Vegas Sphere (The Wizard Of Oz is playing if you’re so inclined.) The Sphere itself measures in at 366 feet or 4,392 inches. UNLV QB Jackson Arnold measures in at a whopping 73 inches, meaning you would need approximately 60 of him plus his shin and feet to equal one Vegas Sphere, while Cal QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele at 75 inches comes in at an efficient 58 Jaron’s and then approximately 1/2 of him. That my friends is what we call efficiency, and you love to see it in a QB.

Age Is But A Number

We move now now to discuss the age of each university in the year of our Oski, 2026. UC Berkeley was of course chartered in 1868 and is currently in its 158th year of existence. UNLV was chartered in 1957 and is currently celebrating their 69th birthday. Here’s a list of things that are older than UNLV.

• Oski Bear (85)

• Tom Hanks (70)

• Play-Doh (70)

• 10 of UC Berkeley’s Nobel Prizes

The Closest Bear Is…Holy Cow Los Angeles?

Friends I researched this one extensively and as near as I can tell, the nearest Bear to the University of Nevada, Las Vegas is indeed the same Bear that is the closest to the University of California, Los Angeles. I tell you I was shocked to uncover this statistic, a whopping 271 miles from campus to the LA Zoo. I’m not sure what this means, but it can’t be a good sign right?

Well friends, that’s this week sampling of relevant statistics and graphs. I have to say, I feel a lot better now compared to Monday facing the onslaught of analytics. While I’m bummed I’ll miss the game on the plane, I’m looking forward to landing and see our victorious California Golden Bears come Saturday. Thanks for reading, and Go Bears!

Welcome to the DBD, a Write for California community board where one can talk about anything – Cal-related or off-topic. Comment threads are sorted by topic. Anything is fine, so long as you're generally civil

Write For California is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Subscribe now