It’s probably not a good sign when your favorite football team is doing things that make you question the reality you experience. But that’s what happens when your team sets a record for what appears to be the worst 2nd half performance in college football history after leading at the half

For 30 minutes, I watched Cal outplay SMU. In five first half drives, Cal created four scoring opportunities and only a penalty and a dropped (difficult) catch stopped another drive. Cal’s defense forced two 3-and-outs, and forced SMU to work hard for their points, as the Mustangs had to convert on 4th down three times on their two touchdown drives. Cal’s 20-17 lead wasn’t a fluke, and the lead could have been bigger.

Cal had more yards, more yards/play, more first downs . . . the Bears were marginally but meaningfully better across the board for 30 minutes.

Here are the 2nd half stats:

• SMU: 6 drives, 21 first downs, 35 plays, 314 yards, 9.0 yards/play

• Cal: 7 drives, 2 first downs, 26 plays, 50 yards, 1.9 yards/play

Was what we all saw in the first half some kind of mass hallucination? Did SMU spike Cal’s Gatorade in the halftime locker room? The world may never know.

Offense

Efficiency Report

12 drives: 2 touchdowns, 2 field goal attempts (2-2), 6 punts, 2 turnovers (2 downs), 1.7 points/drive.

If Cal had spread their offensive production across the entire game, I probably would have shrugged and given SMU credit for another stifling defensive performance. Only one team has managed more than 5 yards/play or 24 points against SMU’s defense (Louisville) and Cal’s total offensive production more or less matched what every other power team other than Louisville has managed.

Obviously, the bifurcated nature of Cal’s offense is what raises questions. What did Cal do right in the first half and wrong in the second half? What adjustments (if any) did SMU make?

I wondered if SMU played more guys in the box or in press coverage in the 2nd half to try to take away Cal’s short stuff. But no, SMU played mostly single high safety the entire way and they were pretty aggressive getting downhill all game. For whatever reason, 4 yard runs turned into stuffs, and pass attempts turned into pressures. SMU’s front just took over the game.

More kitchen sink offense

If nothing else, credit for pulling out all the stops. Kingston Lopa going both ways, Niles Davis getting reps at running back. Splitting out linemen wide to block on bubble screens. Maybe Cal’s 2nd half fade came because these kinds of desperation moves only had so much juice in them before SMU clamped down.

Hey, at least we saw JKS look like JKS

Layered throws down the field, balls right into the pocket of receivers leading them to YAC, confidence in making reads and decisive throw decisions . . . for basically the first time all year long, JKS looked comfortable and confident for long stretches of the game.

There were some missed opportunities and iffy throws, and Cal relied on more short stuff than I’d prefer. And JKS was eventually overtaken by SMU’s pass rush. But there was just enough to allow you to imagine watching Cal’s prize QB making throws and scoring points in games the rest of the way.

Defense

Efficiency Report

11 drives: 8 touchdowns, 1 field goal attempt (1-1), 2 punts, 5.4 points/drive.

I think this is the least efficient Cal defensive performance since the Sonny Dykes era, but I’m not going to look this up because I’m torturing myself and you the reader enough as it is.

A different kind of defeat

If you were looking for a silver lining to Cal’s defensive performances pre-Wake-Forest, it was that the Bears forced lots of bad plays. Much of that advantage was given away by allowing explosive plays and by committing penalties, but Cal was pretty good at stopping teams from chipping their way down the field.

The Wake Forest game was a total breakdown across the board, but Cal seemed to return to their pre-Wake-Forest ways in the first half against SMU, holding down the Mustangs but giving up too many points in part because Cal’s defense handed SMU 4 free first downs via penalty.

But in the 2nd half? SMU had just one offensive play that went for more than 21 yards, and the Mustangs were able to get small chunks on nearly every play in their six touchdown romp. It was a completely different kind of defensive failure and one that raises alarm bells about Cal’s progress on the side of the ball that has been comparatively healthy.

SMU was going to score SOME points

Look: Kevin Jennings was lights out. I don’t recall a single bad throw, and he was dropping dimes all over the field. The wildly entertaining chaos QB of years past has been replaced by a vet who makes things happen. That doesn’t mean that Cal’s defensive performance was good, but even a good defense was probably going to allow, like, 38 points on Saturday.

Kendrick Raphael gives Cal fans a bitter reminder of what could have been

Imagine if Cal gave Raphael that kind of blocking and space to operate last year.

imagine if Cal had a healthy running back room (and could give Adam Mohammed the kind of blocking and space to operate that SMU gives their backs).

Special Teams

All fakes, all the time

How many times can you run a special teams trick play before opponents get wise to it? Before SMU, Cal had run a successful fake punt and a surprise onside kick, and then ran a fake field goal on 4th and 5 with holder Dominic Ingrassia.

But Cal may have gone to the well one too many times, calling a fake punt that had Angus Davies attempting to throw. SMU had two players who broke off normal punt return duties (rushing the punter and/or blocking) to stay home for a potential fake, and Davies had absolutely nowhere to go.

Cal was down 18 and absolutely had to find a way to convert and score, so I don’t exactly hate the attempt . . . but I might’ve wished that Cal had saved the play for a more competitive game.

On another note, BOY could Justin Wilcox have benefitted from the kinds of guts Tosh and company are showing. How many close games did Wilcox lose when a special teams fake might have swung the game? And yet I can barely recall any attempts. Shame.

Big Picture

There is no way to talk about this game as anything other than another deeply disturbing datapoint under Tosh Lupoi. And what specifically scares me is the variety of bad data points.

Sonny Dykes tended to lose the same kind of games. Often, Cal would lose a shoot-out to a similarly talented team, and when Cal came up against a more talented team his offense couldn’t keep up with what the defense would allow.

Justin Wilcox tended to lose the same kind of games. Often, Cal would lose a low-scoring rock fight to a similarly talented team, and when Cal came up against a more talented team is defense couldn’t do enough to keep it close when the offense couldn’t produce much.

Neither coaching tenure was particularly successful, but you understood the strengths and weaknesses of each coach, how they wanted to try to win football games and when their teams were executing well or executing poorly.

In just eight games, Tosh Lupoi’s losses have been all over the place. He’s lost a game when his team got ran over by UCLA. He’s lost a rock fight to Clemson when the offense couldn’t produce anything. He’s lost a shoot out to UNLV because the defense allowed too many big plays. He’s lost a 100% no-show performance to Wake Forest, and now an even more bizarre 50% no-show against SMU.

There’s no rhyme or reason to how the team performs, or a clear pattern to the losses. It’s (different flavors of bad) chaos from week to week. I’m not clear on what this team is trying to execute, or what is going wrong when games turn in the wrong direction.

All we can cling to is the kernel of hope in Cal’s good moments (Sending Steve Angeli to hell, most of the Virginia Tech game, the first half against SMU), and that Cal’s coaching staff can turn those good moments into more complete performances and wins against a very weak closing slate of games.

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You ever have one of those years where nothing really worked out for you?

You went on a diet and ended up gaining weight; you promised you’d be out of the office by 5 pm and instead became best friends with the cleaners; you promised to start cleaning up your life and instead argued with randoms on Twitter about your football team.

But enough about my last decade on Earth. Let’s discuss the California Golden Bears, who also haven’t been able to catch many breaks in that time.

Clearly, things have gotten lost in the sauce for Tosh Lupoi in Year 1.

The Bears stand at 3-5, with two of the worst back-to-back losses in recent memory for a first-year head coach. It doesn’t help that both Wake Forest and SMU are well-oiled machines with playoff aspirations who are catching us at our most vulnerable time, but getting outscored 83-0 to start and end both games is an intensely tough pill to swallow. There were times where Cal did not look like they belonged on the same football field, as the coaching staff lacked both the personnel and experience to make the proper adjustments before events avalanched (and it’s happened all year).

So what now?

Let’s move from depression to acceptance (or maybe this is bargaining, you all let me know).

We can start with the uncontrollables. Some of the unravelling for the Bears has been due to the worst injury luck a Cal team has experienced in over a decade.

Injuries have come at Cal’s most critical positions, completely disrupting gameplanning and overall strategy.

• Starting quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele: Missed the second half of UNLV, sat Virginia Tech, returned in the 4th quarter vs. Wake Forest.

• Starting running back Adam Mohammed: Out since the Clemson game, return uncertain.

• Backup running back Carter Vargas: Has not been played since the UCLA season-opener.

• Backup running back Ashten Emory: Has had to be helped off the field in the last two games.

• Backup running back Carson Perry-Smith: Also injured and missed Wake Forest.

• Center Bastian Swinney: Injured twice now this season, missed multiple games.

• Offensive guard Sioape Vatikani: Also banged up at multiple points this year.

• Offensive tackle Jimothy Lewis: Had a good start to 2026 but has not been seen for over a month-plus.

• Tight end Dorian Thomas: Fall camp injury has taken him off the two-deep for most of the season.

• Wide receivers Ian Strong, Jordan King, Cooper Perry, Mark Hamper: Have now all missed at least one or multiple games this year.

• Defensive back Kingston Lopa was concussed at UNLV and has struggled since his return.

• Defensive lineman Nate Burrell has missed most of the season. Jericho Johnson has also missed time.

• Defenders Justin Beadles and Kamar Mothudi have also missed time.

That is, in essence, the core of the offense that Lupoi was planning to carry this team all season to wins. It is also nearly the entire running back room, meaning one half of Cal’s offense has been reduced from ineffective to non-functional. Cal had to put in freshman defensive back Niles Davis in the backfield yesterday just to get some level of movement. Compounding the SMU game was injuries to half the receiving corps, meaning we got Kingston Lopa taking screens. Eventually, the Mustangs figured out all the gadgetry, and that was that.

Blaming injuries would be a cop-out to all that’s occurred this season; they’re a part of the game, and it’s next man up. But it’s safe to say going into 2026, that Cal having an above-average season required a fairly healthy team, and definitely not “next offense up”.

That vision has not come close to materializing. The Cal offense has not been close to healthy for a month, and has at times played mostly its second unit. That is not a recipe for success for many teams, and particularly this team, and definitely not our last two opponents.

On the bright side, while it might be patchwork likely through the end of this season, the worst is likely over as some players start to become available and the schedule eases up.

Now, the controllables. Some of this is self-inflicted. The coaching has been well below average on gameday, if I’m being charitable.

Enough has been said about demoted offensive coordinator Jordan Somerville. The system he implemented did not work past the first drive of a half, and his in-game adjustments violated basic coaching fundamentals like “Don’t run the same play twice” or “Try to throw toward the first down marker on 3rd and long”. It was too much for him, and a grave error for Lupoi to stake his bona fides with his most important offseason hire.

His replacement, pass game coordinator Pat McCann, has shown more mettle, and did throw out a nice first half of gameplanning that threw SMU off its axis for awhile. But the lack of available personnel made it difficult for him to go beyond that. You can only hope to accomplish so much when Dominic Ingrassia is your most effective rusher, and you’re having to design tight end sneaks for Mason Mini. It does give us something to work with for the more manageable part of our end schedule.

For SMU, let’s focus on the healthy unit. Defensive coordinator Michael Hutchings has proven himself to be a bit more capable, but the last two weeks have been trying on the soul. Whatever in-game adjustments he tried to implement against Wake and SMU had ephemeral impacts, as the Cal defense was either caught flat-footed or completely run off the field.

The Cal defense blitzes heavy, but lacks the edge talent to generate consistent pressure. It continues to make fundamental mistakes in not holding gaps, biting on fakes or play action, and conceding explosives. It averages the most penalties of nearly any unit in college football, as you can now safely predict at least two scoring drives a game will be assisted by personal fouls. And already that undisciplined approach has cost us, with AJ Tuitele targeting calls leading to his first half absence against Wake in that derby demolition, and ejections to Daniel Harris and Cam Sidney crippling Cal’s defense vs. UNLV.

SMU let the Cal defense play aggressively and fast to the ball in the first half. Then in the second half they just kept running, got up quick to the line, ran again, eventually got a touchdown, the Cal offense started going 3-and-out, and in the heat and the tempo, the defense was run ragged.

This can also be brought on Lupoi, as he focused primarily on young defensive talents with limited reps to rebuild this roster. And there are some incredible talents on this team, who will hopefully return and be part of the wider rebuild. But the strategy of getting upside folks comes with costs; even if we have some emerging talents, there are others that are clearly not performing at a level that is P4-worthy; combined with their lack of experience, they just make basic mistakes. The result is a unit with clear growing pains that isn’t ready for elite competition.

Position-wise, the wide receiver drops have improved, but stopped so many drives in the first crucial month. The offensive line continues to grade out as one of the weaker groups in the nation, as the unit can’t give their running backs space, or give their quarterbacks more than three seconds of comfort. Edge pressure continues to be non-existent, with Cal generating under two sacks a game despite blitzing being a core part of the team’s identity. And the backside defense, once so reliable, has just made a host of busted coverage mistakes.

Ron Rivera can’t be omitted. At the end of the day, he signed off on a very junior staff leading this program, with only a handful of lead coaches like Nick Rolovich with significant collegiate experience. And there are times this staff has looked very young. Rivera seemed to be mostly okay with this group, and now they are learning in real-time for the full country to see. It’s not ideal, and you’d expect Rivera to be more involved in the second set of hires he makes in 2027.

And then there’s the head man. Lupoi continues to make strange decisions in his first year. The end-of-first-half decision to stall at midfield to play for the field goal at SMU? Weird. The inability to call a timeout in crucial situations in-game (like the early 4th down on their own side of the field)? Costly. Deciding to ride with Somerville in a must-win UNLV game? Oh boy. We’ve already discussed the word salad of the quarterback competition, which caused confusion and bewilderment and could’ve easily been peppered over by “Jaron is hurt, and Jackson Brousseau is starting until he heals”. It’s best not to talk even further about the press conferences, where Lupoi tries not to reveal anything of significance, but his constant urge to sell leads him to unintentional contradictions.

Lupoi has made a lot of mistakes; the good news is most of these mistakes are fixable (and Lupoi has already fixed one with the OC pivot). But the goodwill will be quickly exhausted if the wins don’t come. We need to find stability, soon.

Now, the silver linings.

Despite all of the mayhem of the last two weeks, Cal can still turn it around and finish 2026 on the right note. The Bears will end the season facing the basement of the ACC, along with Pitt cycling through backup quarterbacks. It won’t be easy to win 3 of 4 and get to a bowl, especially the way Cal has played all year, but if mistakes are learned from, it is very much possible.

There is the recruiting aspect. Despite the mayhem, Tosh Lupoi has mostly kept this group intact. Charles Davis wavered in his commitment, but then decided to lock back down with Cal nearly a week later. There have been two flips in Alius Mayo (Georgia) and Rahzario Edwards (Ole Miss), but those were some of the higher-profile players out there, and always at risk. Cal still holds a borderline top 25 recruiting class for 2027, with several players likely to come in and contribute immediately. If this class can be mainly retained, and we bring in another top 25 portal class, we will have a more talented team next season.

This is the biggest reason why Lupoi was brought here—to bring talented players at every position, and raise our ceiling. This did not materialize in one year as we’d hoped, but this happens when you’re relying on the portal to rebuild, and there is a significant exodus of talent to the portal and the draft. The hope is Lupoi will have a better hit rate next season, with both a recruiting and portal class entirely of his own making. And if there’s anyone who can sell players on that vision, it’s him.

Cal won seven games in 2025, but it was a very fragile seven wins—the Bears were bottom 50 in the nation by most advanced metrics, but managed four of their seven wins on goal-line stands and last-minute drives (and sometimes both). In talent profile, the Bears had more in common with a four-to-five-win team, and it’s starting to show this year. So we will have to sign ourselves up for the conventional rebuild.

There will have to be staff pivots in certain places. The Cal offensive braintrust needs to be more cohesive next year, with a better in-game identity that can handle setbacks and adjust to what defenses do to them in-game. On defense, there might have to be some tinkering to get better technique out of the players, so they don’t look out of place all the time, but more talent needs to come in as well.

There is one staff pivot that will not be occurring. Tosh Lupoi is almost certainly going to be the Cal head coach in 2027. Lupoi’s contract was officially inked earlier this month, with $22.6 million over 5 years and a buyout nearing $20 million if he were to be released this year. It is slightly cheaper than I initially thought, but it is cost-prohibitive, with buyouts to Justin Wilcox and Jim Knowlton still being paid out of their buyouts. Hiring Lupoi was the decision most Cal donors and leadership aligned on, and while there might be some buyer’s remorse at the moment, they likely will stay the course, with some hints from that group to hire for more experience and strategic thinking.

Ultimately, Cal fans hoped beyond hope that everything could go right this year to put the Bears on the right path of realignment. The opposite has happened, and now Cal will likely have to pivot for the longer-term rebuild.

The Bears still have a head coach who wants to win here, is trying to figure out what he can do with what he has, and we all know he has the requisite ability to bring the talent and donor buy-in to eventually make it work. If Lupoi can still continue to be the best version of himself on the recruiting and portal front, then there is always hope to sell that the team is moving upward starting every season. Then a reboot with a more experienced coaching staff could reset the vibes going into next season.

Obviously, looking around college football, we see the Bob Chesneys and Will Steins of the world immediately succeeding in a one-year rebuild, and it is a far more bitter pill to swallow. But there are other coaches out there, like Mario Cristobal and Kalani Sitake, who took significant lumps early before eventually rebuilding their programs back to national relevance. Not all coaches can be immediate Jeff Tedford success stories. We can hope Lupoi will figure it out as he grows into the role, and in the coming year or two will have Cal back to the place they need to be.

A lot of factors could potentially change in the coming months, and Lupoi is the coach who will be responsible for overseeing them. Controllables and uncontrollables aside, the wins must eventually come. A good way to start winning the fans back and getting buy-in is to finish a manageable schedule right.

So it goes without saying the next three months are very critical for Tosh Lupoi’s Cal era before it even really gets going. Turning things around and getting us to bowl eligibility could at least give us signs of growth and improvement, and could propel us into closing on our recruiting class and a more thorough portal evaluation.

There’s still time to fix this before the damage is irreparable. But the clock is ticking, and college football is moving faster than ever. Your move Tosh.

Cal (3-4) and SMU (5-1) met at Gerald J. Ford Stadium at nine a.m. Pacific Standard Time today.

After some back and forth over the past week, Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele got the start for the Cal Bears in the first of a three-game road trip across the ACC. While Cal got their starting signal caller back under center, they were severely hamstrung by injuries, with running backs Adam Mohammed and Carter Vargas sitting out, as well as wideouts Cooper Perry, Mark Hamper, and Jordan King. Center Bastien Swinney was also sidelined.

Because of these conditions, several Cal defensive players took snaps on offense. Niles Davis, AJ Tuitele and Kingston Lopa all saw action on the opposite side of the ball today. Niles Davis nabbed his first career reception on the first drive, which ended with Chase Hendricks taking a smoke screen to the house, giving Cal a 7-0 lead.

SMU’s second drive began with a 35-yard return. After penalties set them back to a 1st and 20 around midfield, they matriculated the ball downfield but were stymied in the red area, and held to a field goal, making the game 7-3 in Cal’s favor. On SMU’s third offensive drive, the Ponies converted a 4th and 7 and then a 4th and 2 before finding former Bear Kendrick Raphael for a swing pass into the end zone giving the home team their first lead of the game, 10-7 after the extra point.

The second quarter began with Cal faking a 48-yard field goal, with backup QB Dominic Ingrassia taking the ball up the middle for the first down. A handy misdirection play carried out by Tyree Sams set up a direct snap to TE Mason Mini, who scored the touchdown to give Cal back the lead shortly after. McGough scored the extra point making it 14-10 Cal.

On their following offensive drive, Cal could not find the end zone, but Towns McGough kicked a career-high 41-yard field goal to make it 17-10 for the Golden Bears. SMU responded on the next drive with a commanding march down the field punctuated by Kendrick Raphael’s second touchdown of the day. The Bears looked to be in position to respond before the half, but that effort was hindered by penalties which took that back into their own territory. They managed to get into field goal position with one second left in the half and regained the lead off the strength of a 37-yarder from McGough, making it 20-17 in Cal’s favor going into halftime.

SMU opened the second half with a scoring drive that took just over four minutes off the clock, aided by another tough Cal DPI call. The drive was capped off by a run from Christian Rhodes and a successful extra point kick to make the score 24-20 in Dallas. On the Ponies’ next drive they started deep in Cal territory and set about running the ball through Kendrick Raphael play after play, setting up a passing shot, and SMU made their lead 31-20.

The third scoring drive of the third quarter for Southern Methodist University ended with a little over four minutes left in the quarter. They put 21 points on the board in 11 minutes, making it 38-20 in their favor. Cal got a first down for the first time in the second half on their next drive, but were hamstrung by a sack that put them too far beyond the sticks. The Bears attempted a fake punt but Angus Davies’ pass attempt was batted down giving SMU good field position once more.

Southern Methodist slowed their pace of play during the drive that bled into the top of the fourth quarter but it did not stop the onslaught of points. Freshman Christian Rhodes took the ball to the one-yard line, and Kendrick Raphael finished the job on the next play, making the score 45-20 for SMU. The onslaught did not cease. SMU’s defense continued to get stops and the offense found more ways to score. Jalen Hale was the next scoring player, as the score rose to 52-20 SMU.

The following offensive drive, after their defense recorded yet another stop, SMU put in their backup quarterback, sophomore Ty Hawkins, who also led a scoring drive, capped off by a rushing TD by running back EJ Kelly, making the final score 59-20, giving Southern Methodist a commanding victory after last year’s unexpected defeat.

The Cal Bears continue their road trip next week, playing the NC State Wolfpack at 9 a.m. Pacific.

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How to watch Cal v. SMU college football

• When: Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026

• Kick-Off Time: 11 a.m. Central

• Where: Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas

• TV: The CW

• Radio: KSFO 810 AM; Channel 263 on SiriusXM Radio or Channel 973 on the SiriusXM app and website; The Varsity Network app; or the official Cal Bears YouTube channel

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How to watch Cal v. SMU college football online

The Cal v. SMU college football game will air on The CW.

The CW can be streamed online on the CW Sports website, popular online TV streaming services and major paid cable or satellite TV providers’ online services.

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Christopher_h

Scoreline: Cal loses 10-44

I don't even know anymore, man. My expectations are in the dirt. I imagine SMU doing what Wake Forest did; they're built for it.

Rob Hwang

Scoreline: Cal loses 20-38

Well I don’t know what to put here anymore.

Berkelium97

Scoreline: Cal loses 14-38

At least we’ll get this one out of the way early in the day.

Piotr T Le

Scoreline: Cal loses 21-28

Only reason it is close throughout the game is because Kevin Jennings scores 3 TDs, 2 for SMU and 1 for Cal.

Ben

Scoreline: Cal wins 21-20

Chaos. Always root for chaos!

Optimism is and ought to be high in Dallas this fall. SMU has orchestrated one of the more impressive ascents in modern college football, leaping from the doldrums of near extinction to a perennial contender in a power conference. They made the playoff in their first year in the ACC and were on track to repeat that feat last year until a Cal team with a fired head coach stunned them at the buzzer.

But if you are Rhett Lashlee, the painful outcome of that game cannot obscure the fundamentals: institutional investment, retention of key players, decent coaching, and a friendly schedule are all massive tailwinds for his program. SMU is once again ranked and well in the mix to make another trip to Charlotte. While the offense has been quite respectable in the Jennings era, it is the defense that will make or break hopes in Highland Park.

OVERVIEW: This offseason, Lashlee split defensive coordinator duties between Maurice Crum Jr. and Rickey Hunley Jr. Crum, who has play-calling duties this season, played his college ball at Notre Dame before embarking on a coaching career. He has had the DC role at SMU since 2024, after being Co-DC at Ole Miss. Hunley joined the Mustangs staff in 2021, rising from secondary coach to Co-Coordinator after the departure of Scott Symons to the Dallas Cowboys.

SMU averages about one turnover and 3 sacks per game. In contrast to a Cal team that has struggled mightily in the disciplinary department, SMU is infrequently penalized. They rank right in the middle on most advanced metrics such as adjusted EPA/play. Of particular concern for Cal is that SMU is one of the best teams in the nation in terms of Havoc Rate. That signifies that on a down-to-down basis, the Mustangs are quite adept at disrupting opponent plays. Most of this comes from their 5th-in-the-nation rank in sack percentage. They further excel at limiting explosive plays, meaning that the Bears will have to take what is in front of them. The group has recently started firing on all cylinders, holding opponents to under 17 points in each of the last two games after a slightly slower start.

PLAYERS TO WATCH:

Marques White: The Mustangs edge rusher and senior journeyman leads the team in sacks and is likely to have a field day against the Cal tackles.

Brandon Booker and Alex Kilgore: SMU’s talented LBs are coming off some of their best performances to date. Kilgore leads the team in tackles and Booker can both provide pressure and drop into pass coverage.

Jarvis Lee: The senior safety has done a great job forcing turnovers.

STRENGTHS:

Pass Defense: The Pony Express has averaged 163 passing yards allowed per game this season. For a Cal offense that is quite one dimensional, that is far and away the most pressing concern heading into this week. They allow completions on just 60% of pass attempts. Furthermore, SMU is excellent at keeping opposing receivers in front of them with just 6.1 yards per completion, a feat among the best in the nation.

POTENTIAL VULNERABILITIES:

For most teams, SMU’s run defense should be a welcome opportunity to pad the stat sheets of their backs, but the Cal rushing attack hasn’t caused another team trouble in a very long time. Another hole in this defensive unit is that they don’t excel at creating turnovers.

PREDICTION:

SMU’s defense likely will not have trouble keeping Cal from lighting up the scoreboard and there is not a mismatch significant enough in any phase of this group for the Bears to exploit. Expect the Bears to really struggle with this pass rush in a way that they haven’t seen over the past few weeks. The stats don’t fully demonstrate the extent to which the SMU defense has found its stride as of late, meaning that any hope of rattling the Mustangs will require a variety of new looks and creative schemes that they aren’t prepared for. Otherwise, it could be a snoozy day for Cal’s offense.

The California Golden Bears (3-4, 2-2 ACC) face off against the No. 23 SMU Mustangs (5-1, 3-1 ACC) in a challenging game.

Cal faces its second nationally ranked team in a row after losing to its first top-25 team last week. Meanwhile, SMU, which only joined a “Power Four” major conference in 2024, has a perfect 10-0 record against Atlantic Coast Conference opponents at home.

Here is how you can watch Cal v. SMU college football Saturday morning.

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How to watch Cal v. SMU college football

• When: Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026

• Kick-Off Time: 11 a.m. Central

• Where: Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas

• TV: The CW

• Radio: KSFO 810 AM; Channel 263 on SiriusXM Radio or Channel 973 on the SiriusXM app and website; The Varsity Network app; or the official Cal Bears YouTube channel

Share

How to watch Cal v. SMU college football online

The Cal v. SMU college football game will air on The CW.

The CW can be streamed online on the CW Sports website, popular online TV streaming services and major paid cable or satellite TV providers’ online services.

Write for California will have a live fan stream for reactions and discussions about the game. Join the Write for California community in our live game thread and follow @WriteForCal and @WriteForCalLIVE on X for the latest from the Write for California staff.

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Write for California will not have a live online video stream of the Cal v. SMU college football game.

A Write for California subscription never includes live TV streams of college football games, including Cal v. SMU, or any other sports games or events.

The California Golden Bears are underdogs against the No. 23 SMU Mustangs, according to the latest college football lines and odds offered by sportsbooks.

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Cal v. SMU college football betting pick, odds and lines: Who is favored to win?

According to data independently collected by Write for California, the latest college football betting odds for Cal v. SMU is between Cal +18.5 and Cal +20.5, as of Friday morning.

The Cal +20.5 line implies the California Golden Bears are about 21-point underdogs against the SMU Mustangs.

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According to data independently collected by Write for California, the latest point totals for Cal v. SMU college football “over-or-under” total score bets is between 55 and 55.5 points, as of Friday morning.

The Cal +20.5 line and 55.5-point total imply the California Golden Bears will lose to the SMU Mustangs with a scoreline of about 17-38.

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According to data independently collected by Write for California, the latest Cal v. SMU college football “moneyline” ranges between Cal +700 and Cal +900 and SMU -1011 and SMU -1200, as of Friday morning.

Moneyline bets pay out based on the Cal v. SMU college football game’s result, regardless of any point “spread” handicap or margin of victory.

A bet on Cal’s most favorable moneyline of Cal +900 pays a $900 profit on a $100 wager, and a bet on SMU’s most favorable moneyline of SMU -1011 requires a $1,011 bet to earn a $100 profit.

Cal v. SMU college football: What you should know

The California Golden Bears are 3-4 and have a 2-2 record in the Atlantic Coast Conference in the 2026 college football season. The SMU Mustangs are 5-1 and have a 3-1 record in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

The SMU Mustangs are ranked No. 23 in the Associated Press poll and No. 20 in the AFCA Coaches Poll. SMU is the second top-25 opponent for California this season and its second-straight matchup against a nationally ranked opponent.

The California Golden Bears is 2-4 against the spread, while the SMU Mustangs have a 1-3-1 record against the spread in the 2026 college football season.

Cal has had two games finish with an “over” result and four games’ point totals end with an “under” result in the 2026 college football season. SMU had one “over” game and four “under” games this season.

The California Golden Bears have a 1-2 record against the SMU Mustangs in a series dating back to 1957. Cal lost its last game at SMU, a 6-38 defeat in Dallas on Nov. 30, 2024, in both teams’ inaugural season as Atlantic Coast Conference members. The last Cal v. SMU contest ended in a 38-35 Cal upset at home in Berkeley, Calif., on Nov. 29, 2025.

In its last game, Cal narrowly avoided being blanked by the visiting No. 21 Wake Forest Demon Deacons. The Golden Bears lost 7-41 after trailing the Demon Deacons 0-34 at halftime. Cal’s star quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele did not start the game, but scored the Golden Bears’ only touchdown in the fourth quarter, a 28-yard pass to tight end Mason Mini.

Last weekend, then-ranked No. 24 SMU beat the Virginia Cavaliers, 23-13. Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings threw for 246 yards and two touchdown passes, completing 23 out of 26 pass attempts.

The SMU Mustangs have a perfect 10-0 record at home against Atlantic Coast Conference teams since joining the league in 2024.

The Cal v. SMU college football line opened early this week at about Cal +16.5, according to Vegas Insider, which analyzes and aggregates select sportsbooks and prediction markets’ offered odds and lines.

Over the week, the Cal v. SMU line has moved against Cal, indicating bettors have continued to favor the SMU Mustangs.

Vegas Insider reports the Cal v. SMU moneyline opened at about Cal +550 and SMU -800. The Cal v. SMU total opened at about 52.5 points.

According to Vegas Insider’s analysis, 67% of bets on the Cal v. SMU college football game with a point spread have been on the California Golden Bears, while 98% of Cal v. SMU moneyline bets have been on the favorites, SMU. Vegas Insider also reports that 88% of total score bets have been on an “under” result.

The odds aggregator also reports that 71% of all dollars bet on Cal v. SMU with a point spread have been on Cal, 91% of dollars bet on the Cal v. SMU moneyline have been on SMU and 84% of dollars bet have been on the “under,” as of Friday morning.

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We will do what we shall, suffer what we must, and face the reality of the Cal football offense.

We are not going anywhere well or fast

Sometimes an offense is good in one of the aspects of the game but struggle in another part of the game… Cal does everything in both aspects of the offensive game poorly.

There is something fascinating about an offense that can’t generate efficiency or explosiveness in the 2 core aspects of offensive football. Surely after spending this much on the offense we would… do better than Stanford in at least 1 of the aspects of the game. We do not. The fact that we are just as woeful in the passing as we are with the running game is depressing.

What does HuldIQ think?

Oh no. We’re still bad on their metrics (this chart includes FBS + FCS games). At least our sack % is not bad? …

When we’re moving efficiently… we’re not moving far.

The thing about the offensive success rate is what you do with it: when you’re successful how successful are you.

As discussed above Cal barely escapes the lowest spot in success rate, it is accompanied by a slew of other programs in its vicinity. If we zoom into the ~35% overall Success Rate we see that when Cal is gaining successful yards they do it at a lower rate and amount than any other program. Stanford and Baylor for example gain an extra yard for every successful play. While Cal languishes around the UVA/Pitt range of yards but they achieve those results more often.

The issue with Cal’s efficiency is 2 fold: it tries and fails to generate necessary line yards on the ground via the ground game. With the RBs getting tackled right around the LOS but with the overuse and injury to Adam Mohammed, injury to Carter Vargas, and RB3 level skill-set of Ashten Emory (ie. replacement level RB play) we are unable to generate anything on the ground that is worth noting as the RBs get tackled basically at the LOS.

Theoretically Cal’s passing offense should be an engine for efficiency: Jackson Broussau’s 57.8% is 9th in the nation (QBs with 50 plays or more, n=220) and Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele’s 55.6% is 17th in the % of short passing plays as a share of drop backs. However, on these plays they only have a 71.6% (33rd lowest) and 84.8% (173rd lowest) completion percentages respectively. This is not good…

“Full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing” - Shakespeare when watching the Cal offense.

Ok fine, here is a little cultural reference.

When Cal gains an explosive play, which is rare at a mind numbingly low sub 7.5% of plays in a football game, we can’t even get a lot of yards on such plays. Some could argue that low explosive-play rates are associated with teams gambling on gaining more yards per designed shot play while some teams that hit explosive plays at double Cal’s rate get fewer yards since they settle on higher probability ones (ie 20-25 yard ADOT [average depth of target] shot plays from USC/Utah vs 30-35 ADOT shot plays Stanford/Minnesota).

The issue with Cal is that we’re trying to live in the world of Utah/USC but is getting Stanford/Minnesota efficiency… or is it that we’re trying to live in Stanford/Minnesota world and getting Utah/USC efficiency?

I would argue that as discussed earlier we’re trying to live in the USC school of completing passes fast and moving the ball not relying on anything deeper with JKS having the 169th highest deep passing rate and Broussau with the 197th. Is this due to the fact that teams do not respect the Cal passing game and thus face higher rates of deeper coverage shells? Or is it a strategy to reduce the stress on an OL?

Conclusion

We’re a painful offense to watch and it isn’t something that can be fixed with a coordinator change. It has to do with what doctrine on offense we’re trying to implement. Seems like we have decided on a doctrine of a quick passing offense where we bank on individual talent to win match-ups and a running game that was just good enough to keep us on schedule… this failed. We have built a roster, implemented scheme and coaching that cannot lead to sustained success this season.

Florida State at 3 Miami (Miami wins 43-35 in 2OT)

Christopher Helling - As I've said in previous weeks, FSU is just as good as they need to be. They finally found success on offense by--get this--throwing to WR Duce Robinson, and showed they still have the horses to compete with everyone (while still finding a way to struggle in an FCS matchup).

Ben - Preparing for a football game will often start several days before your team steps out onto the gridiron. Players can spend a full week getting their heads in the game, learning their opponents, and developing the best approach for the match-up ahead. As game day draws near, preparation starts the night before. Be sure to eat a good meal, get a full night’s rest, and start mentally preparing for the big day. Although game-day preparation techniques vary from player to player, there are core similarities among the most effective habits, and football players at any level can learn how to better prepare for a game.

Piotr T Le - FSU is in the unfun spot where they can't fire Norvell anytime soon but aren't willing to give him the $$$ needed to go anywhere with his vision. Miami wins a game they lose last year.

Virginia at 24 SMU (SMU wins 23-13)

Christopher Helling - UVA ran the ball the entire first quarter, with the only throws being screen passes to the RB out wide. SMU had false starts near the redzone that turned a 4th and goal at the 1 into a FG, but UVA had a late hit after the play to give SMU a FG to go up 13-10 SMU at halftime. QB Beau Pribula did not look great throwing the ball, as he kept trying to throw the same throw down the sidelines for covered receivers, just poor reads on throws that only work if your receiver is a lot better than the corner, and UVA had to move away from the run game to the pass game as they fell behind and SMU started stopping the run better on early downs. QB Kevin Jennings plays a very risky game, sometimes throwing turnover-worthy throws, but also hitting big plays once in a while for critical scores. RB Kendrick Raphael remains a very reliable running back, just consistently picking up the needed yards. SMU doesn’t look like they are as strong as they were in previous seasons, but they so consistently do just enough to win.

Rob Hwang - So we MIGHT have a chance?

Ben - Tip 1. Football Coach Eric Colonna says when preparing for a game, watch videos of your opposing team if possible. This will help you get a sense of their strengths, weaknesses, and favorite plays. If you can, make a game plan with your teammates. Have a strong week of practice, eat well, and get plenty of sleep.

Piotr T Le - UVA is sinking fast after the hot start. SMU hopes WF stumbled later in the season to make the CFP.

Charleston Southern at Clemson (Clemson wins 37-0)

Christopher Helling - Even against an FCS team, Clemson's pass offense was still anemic, and needed to rely on bully ball to beat a vastly out-talented team.

Rob Hwang - Good for Dabo.

Ben - Tip 2. Get your head in the game as soon as you can. When today’s game is over, start preparing mentally for next week’s match-up. Mental preparation for a football game includes skills such as visualizing success, eliminating distractions, improving your mental toughness, and staying positive.

Pitt at Boston College (Boston College wins 27-21)

Christopher Helling - Well, I was right about Pitt turning to freshman QB Corey Dailey, and he started it off with an absolute bomb for a TD, but it looks like he'll still need some time to adjust to the speed of the college game. Although Dailey has a cannon, Pitt's potential game-winning drive ended with Dailey tried to force a deep ball into double coverage. Pitt's secondary was disappointing in this one, and BC found success through the air (via wide open receivers to give up huge plays) that they don't usually have.

Rob Hwang - Backup QB being important is huge here.

Ben - Tip 3. Talk with your coaching staff about strategies and expectations. Each football game is a different battle. Your coaches will have specific goals and strategies lined up for the game ahead, and you and your teammates need to be proactive about getting on board.

Piotr T Le - Pitt is sinking without an answer at QB. BoB wins again, maybe Narduzzi is allergic to HCs named Bill who have coached in the NFL?

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech (Virginia Tech wins 34-24)

Christopher Helling - A bounce-back game for VT, and they came out strong with some huge plays to WR Que'Sean Brown as they leapt out to a 24-3 halftime lead, and held on to win it. GT QB Alberto Mendoza is still young, and eats a lot of sacks when he needs to throw it away. GT had a lot more success running the ball than usual, though, which is a good sign going forward.

Rob Hwang - Good to see we helped VTech find their fire again.

Ben - Tip 4. Practice hard all week long. You can’t expect to play your best on game day if you haven’t given it your all during practice. Dig into drills without simply going through the motions, realizing that each aspect of practice is about preparing you for real in-game situations.

North Carolina at Duke (North Carolina wins 24-20)

Christopher Helling - RB Nate Sheppard still appears to be limited by injury, as he was unable to break any really big plays like he had earlier in the season. Duke put far too much responsibility on the arm of QB Walker Eget, but he’s just not a great quarterback (most passes were to Sheppard anyway, as an extension of the run game). QB Billy Edwards Jr is also not very good, and didn’t manage much offense after their initial 17-0 lead (one of which was a TD on a short field after a bad snap on a punt, but UNC returned the favor and did the same thing later in the game for a Duke TD). Duke felt like they should be the better team but seemed to be outcoached by Belichick and UNC, as UNC’s defense has been able to stop mediocre offenses so far.

Rob Hwang - A glimpse into rivalry games being played earlier in a 24 team playoff.

Ben - Tip 5. Eat a healthy meal a few hours before going to sleep. A balanced meal consists of all three macronutrients (carbohydrates, fats, and proteins) in ratios appropriate to the body and lifestyle of the individual. However, many trainers recommend eating a meal focused more on carbohydrates the night before strenuous activity or sports to ensure sustained energy the next day.

Piotr T Le - Bill wins! He is happy! Does he know that if he keeps it up he's headed for a quick Mayo bath?

Elon at Stanford (Stanford wins 34-7)

Christopher Helling - Well, it's nice for Stanford to have a competitive matchup for once. I saw the first quarter before leaving to a friend's place to watch the Cal game, and honestly thought Stanford should be on upset alert. Elon got a surprising amount of pressure on QB Davis Warren, and Stanford's poor run defense in the secondary is going to get Elon RB Kamerin McDowell-Moore paid next year as a transfer (21 carries, 164 yards). Elon was down to a backup QB and had no pass offense whatsoever, and the fact an FCS team was able to run the ball at will--even with the Stanford defense expecting it--should raise alarm bells.

Ben - Tip 6. Make sure you have all your equipment ready for the next day. Have your jersey, socks, cleats, and other gear packed up and ready for heading out the door in the morning. Check the weather reports to see what extra layers or supplies you might need.

Louisville at Syracuse (Louisville wins 34-26)

Christopher Helling - Both of these teams feel like they should have much better records than they do. Louisville has one of the best offenses in the conference (or country), but their defense just can't keep pace. Syracuse is a lot better than I keep giving them credit for, and I didn't expect them to give Louisville a run for their money down to their 4th or 5th string QB now. QB Malachi Nelson was also a lot better than I expected him to be, but he left the game late with an injury, which is definitely not a good sign going forward for Syracuse. Umari Hatcher so far has been a cheat code for Syracuse; without him, I'm not sure if Syracuse is remotely competitive in any of their matchups.

Ben - Tip 7. Get a full night’s sleep. Assuring enough rest before a day of strenuous activity is one of the most important elements of preparation for a big day. Don’t forget to set your alarm! Your coaches and teammates are relying on you to show up prepared and on time.

Any other thoughts on the teams?

Rob Hwang - football is pain.

Christopher Helling - This week is kind of a reminder that the ACC is a lot more clustered together than most conferences, and it feels like (if you exclude Miami) almost anyone can beat almost anyone else. That's how you end up with two teams like Wake Forest and Virginia Tech who seem pretty equal on paper, where one has an embarrassing loss to Cal while the other one blew Cal out. Georgia Tech feels like they're roughly on Cal's level, and one week they're beating 4-0 Duke, another week they're losing to bottom of the barrel teams like Stanford. No game is safe.

Ben - Taking too much time “warming up” can tire you out for the game. Don’t eat right before a football game (or before any strenuous exercise). You can get a cramp or find yourself with an uncooperative stomach. A backyard football game can be flag, two-hand touch, or tackle. Be sure you know what you’re getting into when you sign up for the game!

Cal is playing this year’s matchup at SMU, which luckily will be a little more pleasant than the hellfire conditions SMU played in earlier this season.

SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee currently has a 43-17 record at SMU (0.717), including an AAC championship, ACC championship game appearance, and CFP appearance, but SMU has yet to break through to the next level, despite SMU perennially being one of the best teams in the conference, as the ACC Network reminded us on every ACC matchup to start the season:

Cal appears in both the SMU “2” and FSU “3” here, along with Wake Forest (that’s what you get when you hire a former Pac-12 coach). This success is obviously due to Lashlee’s laid-back and chill demeanor.

This year, SMU ran a Heisman campaign for quarterback Kevin Jennings, “The King of Dallas.” He’s still vaguely in contention with +22500 odds at the time of this writing.

SMU also still holds the 3rd best odds of winning the ACC at +1000, behind Miami (-425) and Wake Forest (+700).

That is to say, Vegas oddsmakers think SMU is roughly on par with Wake Forest, which isn’t a great look after last week.

Let’s take a closer look.

Quarterback

This is the third year in a row that I get to cover QB Kevin Jennings (see here: 2024, 2025), as he enters his fourth season as a starter, since leading SMU to an AAC Championship as the starter in 2023 (right before SMU joined the ACC). His record as a starter since:

2023: 1-1

2024: 9-2 (Losses: Clemson in ACC Championship, Penn State in the CFP)

2025: 9-4 (Losses: Baylor, TCU, Wake Forest, … Cal)

2026: 5-1 (Losses: Louisville)

Because I’ve already covered Jennings so many times, I almost want to just regurgitate what I’ve said in previous years, with minor updates. Kevin Jennings’s biggest weakness in 2025 was his bum ankle, which severely limited his mobility (he went from 354 rushing yards in 2024 to 54 rushing yards in 2025), and took away a critical element of his game. Although Jennings looks to pass more and run it less, he still has the ability to run the ball, and he uses that threat to open up the pass game (much like WF QB Gio Lopez did last week as Wake Forest tore through Cal). To quote from my previous articles:

Jennings is a true dual-threat quarterback who excels in and out of the pocket, both on his feet and through the air. In fact, he excels at using either to avoid the blitz, which is one of his strengths.

Jennings excels at throwing on the run, but unlike other mobile quarterbacks, Jennings still does a good job of stepping into his throws when throwing from the pocket. Jennings has the arm strength, but he also shows good touch and anticipation by regularly hitting his receivers in stride (particularly on timing routes).

Another of Jennings’s specialties is his ability to avoid a sack and extend plays. He’s mobile, athletic, and difficult to tackle, and he uses that ability to find open receivers when most dual-threat quarterbacks would take off on the ground.

Jennings may face durability concerns at the next level, but he’s still an excellent college quarterback. He’s extremely athletic (like he can legitimately do a 360 dunk in basketball), he can throw from any angle, from the pocket or on the run, and he has that immeasurable improvisational ability to create plays when nothing is there.

Jennings is a high upside quarterback because of his mobility and throwing ability, and his ability to create explosive plays. NFL scouts will probably want to see him improve his footwork and fundamentals (stop throwing off the back foot, etc) and rely less on the Manziel-esque improv plays.

I mean, yeah, that’s a pretty good summary, and not a whole lot has changed since then. Jennings still does a great job extending plays with his legs:

Jennings can dance in the pocket all day if he decides:

Jennings does a good job of handling pressure and the blitz, and uses his escapability to make a nice play:

Here Jennings survives an all-out blitz and back-pedals for a lot longer than probably necessary to make this throw:

Jennings is extremely confident in his arm, and is not afraid to force throws into tight coverage. Here he fits a throw into a tiny window between defenders:

And he shows nice touch on his throws (also notice that the run game threat is what got this receiver open as the corner bites down on the fake):

Here’s another ridiculous throw by Jennings, off-balance, off-platform, and still perfect placement on the throw (and why I still consider it a highlight even if the receiver didn’t complete the catch):

SMU hasn’t leaned as heavily on the QB run game as they did in 2024, but they will still remind a team that it is there:

And of course, if you don’t account for Jennings at all, expect him to take off:

Jennings’s legs allow him to turn in positive gains even when he doesn’t have anyone open:

But most commonly, it’s just the threat of Jennings taking off that frees up his receivers for big plays:

Here the defense again bites down on the run fake, leaving both the corner and the safety way out of position for another big gain:

I think one of Jennings’s weaknesses this year was his tendency to play hero-ball when SMU fell behind, and he did too much to try to make things happen:

Another thing is (although I reported in a previous year that he can make throws rolling to his left), I’ve noticed him missing on a lot of throws when flushed out to his left this year. This I assume was a checkdown, but he misses on this throw:

Again Jennings rolls left and throws an ill-advised throw across his body into traffic, which probably should have been intercepted:

I also think Jennings can get overconfident in his throws, and a lot of his negative plays are Jennings forcing throws into coverage:

And again, I don’t know if this is an underthrow or overthrow (not clear on the intended receiver), but there’s a certain level of “throw it up and hope someone comes down with it” here:

Here the safety knows that Jennings is probably looking for the big play (back to hero-ball in a tight game), and reads Jennings the whole way:

I’m sure the hit affected this throw, but it also didn’t need to be thrown:

The backup QB, redshirt freshman Ty Hawkins, also has some shades of Jennings as well:

Also in the QB room is the 5th year senior Charlie Fiser (who has thrown 6 passes in his career) and true freshman Cole Leinart, Matt Leinart’s son.

Running back

SMU’s lead rusher is a player Cal fans should already know well: it’s Cal transfer RB Kendrick Raphael. You may also remember that he scored the game-winning touchdown that kept SMU out of the ACC championship game last year as well. He’s unsurprisingly having another productive season this year, and he’s currently on pace for a 1,000-yard season. Although Raphael isn’t exactly a homerun hitter, he’s just extremely reliably running through tacklers and turning 0-yard gains into 3-yard, 4-yard, etc gains. Raphael rarely goes down on first contact and often finds a way to turn something out of nothing. Raphael is a patient runner, adept at breaking tackles, and great at finding his running lane to consistently churn out positive yardage:

Although I feel like Raphael excels at a lot of inside runs, he can still break a run outside:

Raphael is decisive when finding his running lane:

And although Raphael seems more fit for short yardage situations, he can still turn in a big run with good blocks:

Raphael is not really big on making moves in open space (opting to run through tackles), but here is one example of Raphael dodging a tackler:

Here Raphael runs into a wall, but he always keeps his legs moving and looking for space:

I find that Raphael is generally a patient run with good vision, anticipating how his blocks will develop to find his lane:

Here Raphael makes a nice cut:

Behind Raphael is RB Dramekco Green, who has actually found a lot more success this season in the passing game (at the time of this writing, Green has 111 yards rushing and 111 yards receiving). Most of his big plays have seemingly come in the pass game, however. Here Green runs a nice wheel route:

And here Green again gets open on the wheel, but also makes a nice adjustment to an underthrow by Jennings:

And here Green shows some of his elusiveness in open space:

Behind these two is Derrick McFall, who is listed on the SMU roster as “WR/RB”, but I believe I’ve seen him take a lot more snaps at RB. Here he shows off some of his speed and elusiveness:

Here McFall sneaks out of the backfield for a big pass play:

And here McFall again makes use of his speed on this run to the outside:

A lot of the SMU run game will be QB Kevin Jennings scrambles and RB Kendrick Raphael power runs, as SMU will lean on the run game to keep drives moving.

Receivers

QB Kevin Jennings favorite target this year is SMU’s leading returning receiver, the slot receiver Yamir Knight. With Jordan Hudson and Romello Brinson lost to graduation, Knight has becoming Jennings’s primary receiver, leading the team in receiving yards and catches (with almost twice as many as the next leading receiver). Knight has been a reliable security blanket for Jennings, catching most everything thrown his way:

Here Knight does a good job of high-pointing the football and making the catch on a ball thrown a bit high:

And here I doubt Knight was even the intended target, but it just shows what a security blanket Knight has been, catching anything that falls his way:

The 5’8” 185 lbs receiver Knight is speedy, and will get involved in the run game on jet sweeps:

SMU will look to get Knight the ball in space:

Just to show how dangerous Knight can be in space, here he is returning a punt:

Another one of Jennings’s top targets this season is the tight end, Florida State transfer TE Randy Pittman Jr. The big-bodied tight end has stood out for his receiving ability and for his ability to create yards after the catch (primarily by running tacklers over):

Pittman Jr has a knack for picking up extra yards after contact:

And Pittman Jr does a good job of keeping his legs churning and falling forward to pick up extra yards:

However, Pittman Jr is still genuinely a receiving threat in the passing game as he is a talented receiver:

Here Pittman Jr runs a nice route and makes a nice catch on the low throw for the score:

SMU will also use Pittman Jr as a receiver on screen plays, and there’s not a lot of teams that will design screen passes specifically for their tight ends:

Another dangerous receiving threat is the other tight end, the Texas A&M transfer TE Theo Melin Öhrström. Melin Öhrström was a 4-star recruit coming out of Sweden (unsurprisingly, the #1 recruit in the “State” of Sweden. Also the only recruit listed from Sweden… but also the #1 recruit internationally), where he:

attended the RIG Football Academy in Uppsala, Sweden, a 30-student program aimed at developing players for the Swedish National American Football Team which participates in the European Championship of American Football and the IFAF World Championship of American Football.

I guess there’s always a market for enormous humans, wherever they are in the world (like this Danish guy I found while looking into Melin Öhrström’s background).

Melin Öhrström is definitely more of a receiving TE:

Here Melin Öhrström runs a nice route to get open in the endzone:

True sophomore WR-X Jalen Cooper has been a deep threat receiver for Jennings, often finding himself open deep down the field:

But Cooper has also shown the ability to create yards on shorter throws as well:

Also at the X-receiver position is Alabama transfer WR Jalen Hale. Hale has also been a deep threat receiver, and shown some pretty nice hands as well:

Hale also has plenty of speed and size to be a strong YAC receiver:

Here Hale again shows some of that speed and YAC ability:

At the Z-position is a bigger receiver, the 6’2” 208 lbs. Yannick Smith, a transfer from ECU. Smith has the size, athleticism, and ability to make plays after the catch:

But as someone who took up football late, he’s considered somewhat of a raw talent. His route running is a little raw and he can sometimes struggle to get separation, but his athleticism is what allow him to still make plays:

I don’t know if we’ll see him, but the freshman TE Zach Turner also showed some nice hands, and may be a factor in the future:

Jennings will have plenty of weapons all over the field.

Conclusion

I don’t have a ton of hope for this game, particularly after last week when we saw Wake Forest run through Cal using the gameplan I thought SMU would run this week. The Cal defense is going to need to learn from their mistakes in a hurry to prevent this one from turning into a blowout. I know Cal surprised SMU last year, but that was against a hobbled QB Kevin Jennings, and he seems to be 100% so far this season. If you have any ideas how to stop this offense, please forward them to the Cal coaching staff, because I don’t have a clue. Cal needs to shut down the run game (both Jennings and Kendrick), and cover receivers for an inordinately long time as Jennings buys time in the pocket, and maybe if SMU falls behind, Jennings will make some ill-advised throws into tight coverage. Alternatively, the threat of Jennings’s run game gets receivers wide open alone in their own zip code, and we see a 10+ yard per play average again this week (or whatever WF’s final number was, I zoned out after the first 4 TDs).

As always,

Go Bears.

You can find my full clips here.

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Andy and Rob discuss the things that went right: Grateful Dead cover band. Dancing grateful bears to open the game. Then everything else…

JKS vs. Brousseau, round two: What changed after last week’s quarterback debate?

Decision making at the 35: The call, the execution, and the questions left behind.

What happened to the defense? How did things get this far out of hand?

JKS enters down 41: What was the plan at that point?

Eight hours that changed the mood: Did this game expose deeper problems?

Where do we go from here? What needs to change, and what would give us Cal fans a reason to believe again?

When a game is that rough, Piotr and Ni…

Read more

Welcome back to The Good, the Bad, and the Rockfights, our weekly statistical exercise in trying to categorize the previous weekend’s performance. This week’s analysis feels like overkill, in the same way that using a graphing calculator to calculate 1+1 feels like overkill. We all know what the results of this week’s analysis are going to be. If we get another game like this next week, I’m using an abacus to calculate the results.

Glossary

Want to know what kinds of Cal football games we’re currently identifying or how to read the Good-Bad-Rockfight-Pillowfight chart? This section should answer any questions you have about the plots and analysis. Otherwise, skip ahead to the plots.

Types of Cal football games

• Good: Cal moves the ball productively and efficiently, and turns possessions into points. Meanwhile the defense stops the opponent’s drives early and prevents scoring opportunities.

• Bad: The opposite of The Good: Cal can’t move the ball well or efficiently and cannot turn possessions into points. Meanwhile the defense surrenders many yards, long plays, and points.

• Rockfight: These are led by strong defensive performances where the defense forces the opponent to grind out inefficient drives that usually end in a punt or turnover. Meanwhile, the offense replicates that struggle. These games are usually dictated by the rule of 21: first team to score 21 wins.

• Pillowfight: both offenses can do whatever they want while the defenses are powerless to stop them. These are high-scoring shootouts that are usually decided in the waning minutes of the 4th quarter.

Plots

• Boxplots: a boxplot illustrates the spread of data points. The plots used in this series highlight the most recent game’s rating in gold while the remainder of the data points are represented in the boxplot. The box captures data between the 25th and 75th percentiles while the horizontal line represents the median, or midpoint of the data. tl;dr: above the box = great, above the line = good, below the line = bad, below the box = turrible.

• Cluster diagram: this illustrates our Good, Bad, Rockfights, and Pillowfights clusters. Each data point represents a game, and points closer together received more similar ratings while points farther apart received more dissimilar ratings. We use a k-means clustering algorithm to organize the games into four distinct clusters, which are color-coded in the plot.

BCF Toys Ratings

(the same ratings are used for offense and defense, so I will only define them once)

• Game Rating (GR): opponent-adjusted FEI offense rating, capturing the expected scoring advantage the offense had against the opposing defense (and vice versa, for the defensive rating)

• Efficiency (Eff): same as Game Rating, but the scoring advantage against an average defense

• Points per Drive (PPD): points per drive during regulation, non-garbage time possessions (or opponent’s PPD, for the defensive rating)

• Success Rate (SR): percentage of non-garbage time drives ending in a TD or FG attempt

• Yards per Play (YPP): yards per play on non-garbage time possessions

• Available Yards (AYd): the distance covered on a drive divided by the distance to the end zone when the drive began for non-garbage time possessions (basically, the proportion of the field covered during a possession)

Offense

This is abysmal. Cal could not move the ball in aggregate or with any degree of efficiency, and they could not score. The only useful knowledge to be gained from analyzing this offense is that it gives us an opportunity to learn how BCF Toys calculates garbage time. It’s actually pretty simple and intuitive. Garbage time begins when Cal’s deficit > 8 x the number of remaining Cal possessions. At halftime Cal was down 34 and had 4 possessions over the remainder of the game. Since a 34-point deficit is insurmountable with 4 possessions, the entire second half was considered garbage time. I think this is the only game in our 20-season dataset where the entirety of the second half was garbage time.

Defense

This is pretty much the opposite of the Cal offense: WF drove far, efficiently, and into the end zone with ease. Nothing about this defensive performance was commendable.

Special Teams

The only glimmer of sunshine peeking through the smoke from this raging tire fire was the special teams unit. It was generally a good day for special teams. Except when Cal tried to return kickoffs. I would be pleased if there were no more attempted kick returns for the remainder of the season.

Cluster Analysis

It should be abundantly clear where this one will end up…

The Bad, once again. Not only is this in the bad, but it’s in The Sunken Place alongside the 0-35 loss to Utah in 2019 and the 14-48 Big Game loss in 2010. And yet, neither of those losses devolved into an entire second-half of garbage time.

Deja Vu

Out of morbid curiosity, I calculated which other game had the most similar profile to this one: Cal’s aforementioned 14-48 Big Game loss. Like this game, Cal was utterly destroyed by an extremely efficient QB who also punished the defense with his mobility. LSJU scored on their first eight possessions. Meanwhile the Cal offense was woefully unproductive and scoreless until their first drive of the 4th quarter, which was already garbage time. Like this loss, there was nothing redeemable about this performance (although Bryan Anger’s 54.3-yard punting average was pretty impressive).

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Cal fans took to the internet after Saturday night’s sizable loss like hundreds of souls escaping from a cursed tomb, finding only each other to speak to in the empty cemetery that is Twitter at 1 am Pacific time. The post-game press conference did not reassure the faithful.

On the heels of a come-from-behind effort against Virginia Tech, with a satiated fanbase basking in the glow of an unexpected win, the thought process was looking forward to having Jaron Keawe Sagapolutele return to under center, and how he might look in a more legible offense with faster reads. What followed on Saturday night baffled national reporters and Calgorithm burners alike. After an offseason of change and promise, of which the retention of Cal’s standout true freshman quarterback Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele seemed to be a keystone, fans find themselves questioning everything about the program, stopping just short of the enthusiastic chancellor Rich Lyons.

It is usually hard to say, in the room, how sound bites will fare in public, out of context, to the scrolling reader. Two weeks ago, after Cal’s jarring loss to UNLV, Tosh Lupoi took to the podium the following Tuesday with understanding, and spoke at length about personal responsibility, but worded in a way that left grown-ups with jobs no choice but to argue with one another in sprawling comment sections. In the moment, I had been impressed with the ownership taken over mistakes to that point, and the subsequent faithful freakout felt a little silly, only for the following week to put all questions back on the table.

Tosh began today’s comments taking “extreme ownership” over last week’s loss, continuing that he is “not looking for a way out, not pointing fingers to the staff or players.” For all the confusing decision-making, further complicated by competing narratives and what we can’t see and don’t know, Coach Lupoi has not aired out anyone but himself, and seems to adhere to a player safety protocol much more careful and protective of athletes than many men of his demeanor, (Ian Strong was held out last week because of tweaks during warm ups, etc). This does not always make his answers more appealing in the moment.

The crux of fan frustration comes from last week’s choice to start Jackson Brosseau, a decision that was taken by many in the press to be more gamesmanship than an actual decision. As play progressed, and it became clear Brosseau was the starter and chosen quarterback for the day, online speculation grew around why the jewel of Cal’s roster retention might have been held out of the game, aspersions flying in many directions.

Lupoi addressed this today as follows; “Jaron was available for this last game, that was the first time he was available to play, k? Alright, so the preparation leading into the game plays a big role of (sic) who can play, and put us in the best position for success. After Jackson led us to a victory, who’s available for preparation, who’s available for the week.”

A charitable interpretation of these comments is that Sagapolutele was not out of concussion protocol the Sunday or Monday following Virginia Tech, and had not had adequate time without being somewhat concussed to study the new offense. It does not quell any confusion around his appearance at the end of the third quarter, down 41. The subtext being that it would be hard to find someone beyond the coaching staff who might view Brosseau and Sagapolutele as competing talents.

Something happens when the national media decides that your quarterback is Sunday material. A program no longer has a quarterback, they become stewards of an early first round draft pick who is meant to save the Jets or the Browns. Having been elevated to this status since early last season it is a difficult narrative for a coaching staff to fight. It may be impossible.

Coach Lupoi answered a follow up about next week’s signal caller; “I’m going to put the individual that I think is best for us to go win the game coming up this Saturday, so you’ll see who’s out there based off of my decision.”

For information on where to watch this Saturday’s matchup against SMU check here

Mapquest It

We start this week by examining the distance from each chancellor’s/president’s house to the campus stadium, and interestingly enough….we tie! Both the President’s House at SMU and the Chancellor’s House at UC Berkeley are 0.9 miles away from their respective stadiums! Interesting!

Diving a little deeper now however, Cal has to win this category as the President’s House at SMU is still being built! Point for Cal! But also man oh man I went and looked at the renderings and the SMU President’s House once completed will be 11.039 sqft with a 500 sqft cabana, 4 BR, 7 BA, an elevator, a 62 sqft wine cellar, and a kitchen that can hold 100 people! INSANE, but that’s oil money I guess. This lead me to look into the University House which, while smaller at 4,328 sqft boasts 4 BR and 10 bathrooms! 10!

Everyone’s Favorite Primary Source, Wikipedia

Next, we’ll dive into Wikipedia, the source of many of our statistics, to learn a little bit more. Interestingly, some time in the last week, Cal lost a citation, bringing the total down to 306 while SMU sits at a measly 129! That’s another Cal victory in the all important category. Do some more research SMU.

Dallas to Fort Worth

Next, we’ll look to see where Cal can draw power from locally. Unfortunately, BearPower will be in some short supply as the nearest Black Bear to Dallas is in the Forth Worth Zoo, over 40 miles away from Campus (shame on you Dallas Zoo). UC Berkeley wins of course with our resident Oakland Zoo bears just over 11 miles from campus. While Cal wins the category, I remain concerned about how the distance to the nearest bear will effect the team’s preparation at Gerald J. Ford Stadium (today I learned SMU has a donor name Gerald J. Ford who is different from the president. Imagine introducing yourself by saying, “Hi I’m Gerald Ford. No, not the president. I’m a billionaire.”)

The Grateful Dead Hats Are Sick (thanks for the hookup Rob)

Our final graph of the day will look at the number of hats available in each student store. With the additional of the new Grateful Dead Hats, Cal moves up to 149 total hats (listen I didn’t verify this because I’m tired but vibes wise it feels fine.) On the other hand, SMU only has a measly 74 hats. Kinda shocked to be honest. If I became a billionaire, I wouldn’t be wasting my money building a new vanity stadium. I think I’d make just a ton of hats and stickers so everyone could have cool hats and stickers. Anyways maybe we should that with the Prop 40 stuff. Don’t forget to vote. What was I talking about again?

Bear Power vs. Horse Power

This next section was originally going to be an investigation into the number of Pontiac TransAms present within some radius of each university currently for sale on Craigslist, but alas, there are not many. But that then lead me to an interesting thought, namely, what is Bear Power? Horse Power, as I’m sure we’re all aware, is a unit of measurement of power to calculate work, and is based on how many horses it takes to lift 550 pounds by 1 ft in 1 second. Or if you want to use real units, 250 kg, 30 cm, 1 second. Which is still really weird. What an insane thing to measure by!

Anyways, that lead me to thinking, well how does Bear Power computer? Reddit of course had the answer. Special thanks to u/TokyoBayRay in the r/theydidthemath for describing his math. Take it away TokyoBayRay.

According to wikipedia, "An analogue to a bear for muscle for its size is a dog". For now, let's assume a bear is just a big dog. We're going to scale up a calculation for a dog to a bear, and pretend that there is a linear relationship between size and power.

Sounds reasonable right? (Shut up)

• This guy calculated how much force his dog Jimmy exerts when pulling as 50N.

• There’s a lot of variation in the size of a bear depending on diet, habitat and time of year. A typical adult male is 180-360kg. Let’s split the difference and say 270kg.

• The aforementioned Jimmy weighs 20kg. So a bearpower, by our assumptions, is equivalent to 13.5 dogpower (or, more properly, jimmypower).

• From this, a bear could comfortably and consistently pull with a force of 675N.

That seems pretty good! It’s been a minute since I took Physics 8A (went much better for me than Chemistry 1B because Physics actually makes sense and is a real science!), but that math seems to check out. We could probably up that a bit to cover the true weight of a historical California Grizzly Bear, but we’ll stick with the Black Bear for now. Moving on now, how does a Horse Power compare?

Now let’s calculate the power of a bear!

• Horsepower was initially calculated by James Watt. It was the power a horse exerted when turning a 12ft mill wheel (wiki).

• James reckoned a horse could pull with 180lb of force. This is as close as makes no difference to 800N.

• As P = W/t = Fd/t, power is directly proportional to force applied.

• 1700N/675N = around 2.5 bearpower to a horsepower.

• Put another way, a Tesla Model S has the equivalent of 1040 bears under the hood.

Interesting! So it would theoretically take two and a half bears to do the power of one horse. I guess that kind of makes sense given general sizes and convincing a bear to lift up a 250 kg anything is probably a chore. I’m going to take this really as a sign of the Power of Unit, and how Bears operate on a team level. Maybe this will show up on the field Saturday?

Thanks for taking the time to read my insane ramblings. I very much appreciate it and hope I gave you a chuckle in whatever these times are. Always good to have community to laugh with. Hope you enjoy the game this weekend over some good strong coffee! Go Bears!