Cal Football 2024 Season Preview Part 4: Predictions

Looking at a best case scenario, a worst case scenario, and the most likely scenario

Photo via @calfootball twitter

Part 1: Back from the Dead? Part 2: The Offense Part 3: The Defense

Congratulations, you’ve made it. Cal football kicks off in one single solitary day. But what’s gonna happen this season? Let’s talk it out.

Realistic Best Case Scenario

There are reasons to think that Cal is better in every phase of play in 2024 as compared to 2023.

On offense, the QB, RB, WR, and TE groups are all either as good as last year or unequivocally better thanks to more experience or transfer additions or both. Last year, Cal’s only decent quarterback is Fernando Mendoza; this year they have a more experienced Fernando, plus a high floor transfer in Chandler Rogers. Last year, Cal’s only reliable tight end target was Jack Endries; adding Corey Dyches is a clear high end addition to the group. At running back, Jaydn Ott is still Jaydn Ott, a star upon which any team would be thrilled to build around. The wide receiver room lost Jeremiah Hunter but added four solid transfer portal guys, a few of whom come with impressive recruiting bona fides.

On defense, Cal’s only major contributor losses were ILB Kaleb Elarms-Orr and safety Patrick McMorris, and again Cal brought in a number of transfer portal targets to step into starting roles or compete for rotational minutes.

And on special teams, Cal replaced a pretty iffy kicker situation with a solid option in North Carolina transfer Ryan Coe.

That only leaves a few positions where Cal needs to find happy answers. If Mike Bloesch can rebuild the left side of the line, and if Cal can get by without having to test their depth at linebacker, then this is a team without any major holes or weaknesses.

And if a team like that goes up against a schedule that’s really lacking in terms of high quality opposition, the ceiling becomes much higher than any Cal team since, oh, 2010 or so.

We have already watched Florida State, SMU, and NC State, three of the better teams on Cal’s schedule, struggle to varying degrees in their season openers. If you’re the cocky type, you might look at Cal’s schedule and see a home game against Miami as the scariest game on the schedule.

The reality is that if Cal hits their ceiling, there isn’t a game on the schedule these Bears can’t win. It’s also true that Cal’s talent level is not nearly high enough such that it’s realistic to expect them to play at the level required to actually win every game, but if you have a realistic shot you can achieve a lot.

If Cal hits their ceiling, they should win at least six out of seven against UC Davis, San Diego State, Pitt, Oregon State, Wake Forest, Syracuse, and Stanford. And if they hit their ceiling, they should be able to be mostly competitive against the tougher tests on the schedule: Auburn, Florida State, Miami, NC State, and SMU, winning two or three.

Add it all up, and it’s a 9-3 record that restores confidence in the direction of the program and builds buy-in and momentum in recruiting.

Realistic Worst Case Scenario

(Please note that we’re talking about realistic worst case scenarios. Obviously, if 10 starters suffer season ending injuries Cal could go 3-9, but it’s pointless and morbid to speculate like that.)

While Cal’s success over the past two seasons recruiting from the transfer portal has clearly raised the overall talent profile of the roster, there are still areas on the roster where there are questions about top end talent, depth, or both.

And in a realistic worst case, those areas become fatal weaknesses that limit Cal badly on both sides of the ball.

On offense, the fact that Cal is entering the season with a left tackle who is a redshirt freshman converted from tight end/defensive end who has never, to my knowledge, taken a competitive snap at left tackle is, to put it mildly, frightening. Offensive line is generally considered the toughest position group to improve in the portal, and left tackle is the toughest position to get on the line, and Cal still hasn’t really brought in a true left tackle in that time.

Meanwhile, one of Cal’s back-up inside linebackers is a special teams specialist, and the other is a freshman preferred walk-on. If Cal’s starters are either injured or ineffective, Cal may not have any depth to fall back on.

And outside of positions with question marks, you also have to consider that a significant portion of this roster has been turned over via the portal. I counted 18 guys on the two deep who arrived in Berkeley over this past off-season. While it’s 100% a good thing that Cal was able to recruit these players and add them to the roster, it’s also true that it’s tough to integrate so many new players onto a team with limited practice time. That may be particularly difficult for positions that require time and chemistry, like say between a WR and a QB, or along the offensive line. There is a risk that Cal will struggle with disjointed play and unclear rotations as the players learn to play with each other and as the coaches learn how to scheme to get the best out of the roster.

And while the schedule is easier than last year, it’s still a schedule with 10 power conference teams. If all of these problems come to fruition, Cal will lose their five toughest games of the season, drop a couple of games to teams with similar or less talent (particularly on east coast road trips, like Pitt or Wake Forest) and end the season with a 5-7 record that will likely prompt lots of panic in an administration and a fan base desperate for good news in tough times.

Most Likely Scenario

I have a conundrum.

Here are three things I believe strongly are true:

1. Cal’s 6-6 record last year was a fair reflection of their true talent against a tough schedule

2. Cal is a more talented team in 2024 than they were in 2023

3. Cal’s schedule is significantly easier in 2024 than it was in 2023.

If you add those three factors up together, I think you get an 8-4 record.

But I have also stated repeatedly over more or less the entirety of the Wilcox era that I will not predict that a Wilcox team will do any better or worse than 6-6, plus or minus one win, until a Wilcox team actually proves it on the field first by winning 8+ games in the regular season.

As a result, I’ve been waffling back and forth between predicting a 7-5 record and an 8-4 record for the past couple weeks.

The argument in favor of 7-5 is an argument in favor of history. Past performance matters, it’s generally a pretty strong predictor of future performance.

The argument in favor of 8-4 is an argument in favor of taking seriously two unexpected and unpredictable developments: Cal’s sudden forced move to the ACC, and Cal’s sudden success raising NIL money and bringing in power conference talent via the transfer portal.

Ultimately, I think you’re better off integrating these changes into your outlook.

Cal’s offense, buoyed by better QB play from game 1 and the undeniable game breaking talent of Jaydn Ott, is the best offense of the Wilcox era. The Cal defense has a mild bounce back season. Cal’s special teams, with improved specialist play, is not a liability.

Cal goes 2-3 against Auburn, Florida State, Miami, NC State, and SMU, and 6-1 against the rest of the slate, finishing with an 8-4 record.