Oregon State Football Offensive Preview
Cal's next five opponents are currently ranked. First up are the #15 Oregon State Beavers; a well-coached team with excellent offensive and defensive lines.
Oregon State was a 10-win team last year. Ten wins. Coach Jonathan Smith has proved to be one of the few successful alumni-coaches, leading OSU from a 2-10 record in 2018 to a 10-3 record in 2022. Oregon State has done a great job of doing more with ‘less’ (per 247Sports, their average recruiting ranking in the Pac-12 has been 10th place), developing players, and competing against teams far more talented than them on paper—say, Oregon in 2022, or Florida in the Las Vegas Bowl. Last year, they lost only to the eventual Pac-12 Champs in Utah, Pac-12 runners-up USC (by 3 points), and to 11-2 Washington (also by 3 points). That is to say: Oregon State has been competing with the top of the conference. And credit for that belongs to the coaching staff, and this guy:
You don’t want to know how Coach Smith pantomimes to the defensive line that they need to get penetration.
The success of this team (on both sides of the ball) comes down to the effectiveness of their lines. Oregon State has one of the best offensive lines in the conference, and the entire team does a great job of setting up blocks. Consequently, OSU loves the short passing game with wide receiver screens and rely heavily on their run game. In pass protection, it’s not unusual to see plays like the following:
I know it’s only a 3 man rush, but the quarterback has all day to throw. The receivers reach the end of their route and need to run a scramble drill while the quarterback does no actual scrambling. We’ll see in a later section examples of how well the OSU offensive line run blocks as well, but needless to say, it’s the reason that OSU has the 3rd most rushing yards in the conference (behind only Oregon and Cal). With that in mind, let’s take a look at the skill positions.
Quarterback
Oregon State landed a big fish from the transfer portal in new quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, the former 5-star Clemson quarterback that many expected to follow in the footsteps of Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence as top NFL QBs. The recruiting service 247Sports had him as the #2 prospect in the class (behind only now-NFL QB Bryce Young), projecting Uiagalelei as a future top 10 NFL Draft pick, and—in the most backhanded compliment I’ve ever seen—listed JaMarcus Russell as his pro comparison. Of course, it’s easy to see why recruiting services were so high on him given his physical attributes: he’s a 6’4” 252 lbs. quarterback with a cannon of an arm, and the type of runner that defenders are reluctant to tackle due to his power running style. Of course, there’s a lot more to being a quarterback than just raw physical attributes, but scouts love “potential” and “higher ceilings.”
Uiagalelei showed a lot of promise as a true freshman in relief of an injured Trevor Lawrence, playing admirably in a double-OT showdown with #4 Notre Dame, but his first year as the Clemson starter was not as smooth: he finished with 2,246 yards passing, 9 TDs/10 INTs, and took the playoff-hopeful Clemson Tigers to a Cheez-It Bowl berth instead. By 2022, he was replaced as the starter by a true freshman, and entered the transfer portal, ending up at Oregon State.
So let’s start with the good. Uiagalelei is a rhythm passer, and can make very accurate throws once he’s developed that rhythm. As mentioned earlier, he can easily sling it down the field:
He’s shown some flashes of great touch and accuracy, and here’s one such example where he somehow fit the ball in to his receiver while surrounded by defenders:
It’s pretty clear that he (unsurprisingly) puts a lot of trust into his arm, and when he’s playing in a good rhythm and throwing very decisively, he’s a great quarterback.
Here’s another example where he shows great anticipation on where the receiver would be—making the throw with all arm strength—because this almost certainly isn’t the hot route he was supposed to throw to with a free rusher on him:
Oregon State will also force teams to account for Uiagalelei in the run game as well, and he will take the rushing yards if they’re there:
Unlike most of the dual-threat quarterbacks we’re accustomed to seeing, Uiagalelei is not going to run a 4.2 40 yard dash and make guys miss in a phone booth. Instead, he’s a big, powerful runner, and he’s looking to lower his shoulder and run over defenders. He runs with strong legs and is tough to bring down:
Of course, OSU has a great offensive line, so they can still give him the opportunity to showcase his speed as well:
Here’s a man who does not shy away from contact, even as a QB:
Now for the other side of the coin. As Uiagalelei puts a lot of trust into his arm, it can also get him into trouble. His throwing mechanics and footwork are inconsistent, and too often he will try to make off-balance throws and try to just muscle it in with his arm, and his accuracy suffers:
I’ve mentioned Uiagalelei’s rhythm a few times. The easiest way to break his rhythm? Pressure. He does not handle pressure the way an elite QB should, and Uiagalelei seeing an unblocked/free rusher bearing down on him usually triggers a panic throw. In the following clip, the defender may have affected the throw, but even if he hadn’t, it was still a terrible decision to try to force this one into coverage like this:
As a result of his inconsistent throwing mechanics, sometimes Uiagalelei misses on throws even without pressure:
Maybe you’re thinking that the tight end there wasn’t where he was supposed to be, that the QB and receiver just weren’t on the same page. I don’t want to belabor the point here, but I am pretty sure that’s not the case because I could give a ton of examples of this:
His wide upper body passing motion means he often airmails throws down the sideline:
This is more of a comment on the receivers, but at Clemson, Uiagalelei was often reliant on his future NFL receivers to make him look good, making those acrobatic catches down the sideline that could have been thrown better. At Oregon State, he was some very speedy but undersized receivers, which means that he shouldn’t rely on them to make contested catches:
This is the type of throw that someone like Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. can rely on, but Uiagalelei cannot, as bigger corners (like, say, Jeremiah Earby) should be able to bully receivers here. Instead of relying on his receivers to make contested catches, he needs to instead rely on them to use their speed to get separation (and with all due fairness, Uiagalelei did fix this in a later game, the clip of which is down in the ‘Receivers’ section below).
Although Uiagalelei has the prototypical NFL size and strength, he’s yet to master a lot of the other skills that make a great quarterback. At this point, he would be considered a ‘project QB’, with a team that has the time to sit him and improve his throwing mechanics and field reads.
Running back
Although Oregon State had an upgrade at the quarterback position, the strength of Jonathan Smith’s teams have always been the run game. They are led by (sigh) Pac-12 Offensive Freshman Of The Year Damien Martinez. I don’t know why, but I almost hate praising Martinez like this, because it feels like disrespect towards Jaydn Ott. The nicest thing I can say about Martinez is that he’s one of the best running backs in the conference, and he’s almost as good as Jaydn Ott. They’re very similar in terms of style, both very well-rounded RBs with great speed, vision, and power. Per PFF: in 2022, Martinez was 5th in the conference in yards after contact (Ott was 4th), and 6th in the conference in missed tackles forced (Ott was 3rd). The only stat where Martinez really eclipses Ott is in the number of rushes that go for 15+ yards (53 to 42), but anyone who watched the two teams last year would know who to credit for that stat: the offensive line. Of course it’s easier to break off big runs when your offensive line opens up huge holes for you more often (or the other way around in Cal’s case, opening up huge holes for the defensive line and forcing the RBs to fight for yards starting in the backfield each time to avoid a loss), and hence your stat line looks better on paper. Ott’s also a much better receiver and pass blocker, but this is supposed to be an OSU preview, so I’ll leave the rest of the libel for another time.
As already mentioned multiple times, the OSU offensive line blocks very well, and Martinez has the speed to punish teams with big runs when they do so:
Martinez also has nice cutback ability, although he gets chased down on this one short of the goal line:
One thing that Martinez does really well is picking his run lanes. He shows really nice vision to navigate between the blocks and find space:
Martinez is also a powerful runner, breaking arm tackles and fighting through initial contact. In the following clip, he both lowers the shoulder on a would-be tackler and stiff arms another:
Here Martinez does a great job of just keeping his legs driving forward to get into the endzone, but it’s also effective even on regular down and distances when you can pick up 4+ yards per carry:
And of course, I love any play where a running back creates his own yards, like here when Martinez carries a number of defenders with him:
One aspect of his game where I think Martinez could use some improvement is in his pass protect skills. He’s not the greatest blocker, and here he was little more than a speed bump on the way to the quarterback:
OSU’s change of pace back is Deshaun Fenwick, a more traditional power back that is useful in short yardage situations. Here he gets some nice blocks both at the line and downfield and cuts his way through for a 20 yard gain:
He’s definitely not the fastest back, but here the Wazzu defenders take poor angles and Fenwick has enough speed to punish them for it:
Although OSU does have some talented running backs, priority number one should be limiting the effectiveness of the offensive line, as that is the biggest determining factor for how the OSU run game will do.
Receivers
All of OSU’s starting wide receivers are under 6 feet tall. They’re not going to be the big-bodied physical receivers Cal has seen in previous weeks, they’re going to be speedy receivers with good hands that use their speed to get separation. In the quarterback section I mentioned that Uiagalelei couldn’t rely on his receivers to make contested catches in coverage, but later, he put the ball where only his guy could get it, as seen in the following clip, in which Silas Bolden shows great body control adjusting to the ball in the air for a nice catch:
Silas Bolden has been having a breakout season so far this year, and he looks to be Uiagalelei’s favorite target and the new #1 receiver. Silas Bolden is fast, and he does a great job after the catch of using his elusiveness to pick up extra yards. In the following play, he makes one defender miss, and then cuts back so hard on the next defender that he’s so far out of position that I am not sure if it still counts as a missed tackle:
Bolden is the type of playmaker where teams kick away from him on special teams. OSU loves to get him the ball in space and let him create his own yards:
Bolden is what I imagine Sam Jackson V would look like if he were a wide receiver. OSU will use Bolden’s speed in the run game as well, such as one end-arounds or misdirection plays. I am not sure if this is quite how OSU drew it up:
On the other side of the field is Anthony Gould (although Bolden sometimes lines up in the slot, both Gould and Bolden are primarily outside receivers).
Like Bolden, Gould is also good at using his speed to get separation, as well as adjusting to less-than-perfect throws:
OSU loves the run game, and they love the screen passing game as well (as an extension of their run game, in which they can leverage their excellent blocking ability). Here's a simple tunnel screen where Gould hits the afterburners to turn this into a 75-yard touchdown:
OSU also likes to involve their tight end Jack Velling heavily in the passing game— he’s tied for second in targets with Gould. (I find myself subconsciously pulling for Velling, I don’t know why). He’s most often used as a possession receiver for throws across the middle, but he’s also shown some pretty good receiving ability for a big guy:
Lastly, we can’t forget about our old friend, Cal transfer TE Jermaine Terry, now playing for the Beavs. He’s primarily used in run blocking, but we know that he’s shown flashes of receiving ability:
It’s interesting how OSU relies on their speedy receivers for explosive plays to catch the ball in space, whereas it’s always a tight end when they need a big-bodied receiver to make a contested catch in short downs and distances. There’s probably some sort of play-calling trend here somewhere.
Conclusion
Cal did an excellent job last week of shutting down the ASU run game, but this time, they’re going to have to contend with a better running back and a much better offensive line. Cal has been great so far this season in tackling, but OSU forces a lot of missed tackles. They’re going to rely on a short passing game with a lot of screens and they’ll rely on their wide receiver speed to get players open. With undersized receivers, it’ll probably be the one game of the year where quarterbacks don’t inexplicably go after Lu-Magia Hearns repeatedly (“I don’t care how many pass break-ups he has, my guy is a couple inches taller and he’ll for sure catch the next one!” they must naively think), so I am curious to see how Hearns fairs. I also think Cal’s defensive backs match up really well with their wide receivers, so I would be surprised to see OSU test them too much in the open field. I think this game will come down to whether or not Cal can get off blocks and if they can slow the OSU run game. If so, expect to see OSU get creative on offense and reach into their bag of trick plays. With the way the Cal defense matches up with OSU, I can see why oddsmakers have us at just 9.5-point underdogs, but I’m personally more concerned with our offense, and how our offensive tackles are going to match up with OSU’s defensive line which has been victimizing offensive tackles all season long. While Cal’s defense might match up well with the OSU offense, I personally think that our offense matches up even worse with their defense. Cal needs to find some semblance of an offense and fast, because we are about to run the worst part of our schedule.
Go Bears.
I am so glad you used that photo of Jonathan Smith. That was some peak hilarity.
Something has got to give. Cal's run defense has been pretty stout (I think advanced metrics puts us in the top 15), while OSU's run game has been a top 15 unit.