I'm not one to put a lot of stock in these early season rankings, especially based on 'production lost'. One of the greatest failings of modern day sports writers is to tie future performance to past performance. While it is certainly true that programs like Bama, Clemson and The OSU (and others) continually recruit well and are at the top of the heap, you could say the same thing for them, just at a higher level. My biggest gripe about sports writers, and not you Nick or any of the WFC staff - you guys do some fun research that no one else does, is that they are lazy as shit. It's so much easier to say because we are losing production that we will be worse. Can you say the same thing about USC? Lol. I think not. What it comes down to is talent and has that talent been coached up to play successfully at the P5 level. I would argue that all across the board that we have young talent ready to step up into the vacancies left by other players. We are losing Hicks in our secondary and we will miss his experience, but I fully expect our young talent and our coaching to more than make up for his loss. We lost Cam Goode but picked up Xavier Carlton. At ILB we picked up Jackson Sirmon. And I think this year you'll see Trey Paster surprise some people. He's an athlete and he has speed. We have some BIG bodies on the inside and Brett Johnson will be back. If he regains his pre-accident form then he is an absolute beast. Rutchena has really come into his own as well. On the offensive side of the ball we finally have had a full season with Musgrave's system and will be entering year two. We have a stable of good running backs and just added 4 star Jayden Ott. I am sorry to see Chris Brooks go because I finally think he found his game this last year, and it was solid. Replacing his specific skill set is next to impossible because of his size and strength. Dancy was also a damn good player, but I fully expect our production to remain the same or get better in our running game. My one concern is turnovers. At receiver we have Hunter, Christakos and Sturdivant surrounded by some solid competition. At TE we have Keleli Latu and highly recruited beast Jermaine Terry. I actually think our o-line will be better next year than this year. While we only have 11 returning on the roster, there is more athleticism in this group than at any time since Wilcox has been here. And I am not that bummed out about Mettauer leaving. He was big and nasty, but he had poor technique and got out over his feet way too much. This led to a lot of holding penalties. I think that we have a starting 5 ready to play right now with Driscoll, Coleman, Rohme, and Craig. And, I think some of the young guys are going to compete for starting spots, perhaps even one of our freshmen. My one are of concern is at QB. Plummer has game experience but no experience in Musgrave's complex system and he has a ceiling. I think Kai Milner has a much higher ceiling but no game experience. The competition will end up with the best player on the field and don't rule out Zach Johnson; he's a baller too. I'm not going to pump sunshine and say we are going to win 10 games next year, but I'm not all doom and gloom and I don't see things the same way Bill Connelly does. I think we will have some growing pains next year but I also think the talent on the field will be the best since Wilcox has been here. My big question mark is how well will we coach them up? With the exception of traveling to Notre Dame, our preseason and early schedule is not tough and should be a little forgiving while we hopefully find our groove. Only time will tell.
Except in the cases of exceptional talent, I've never seen a case of correlation between those coming back and those leaving having an impact. It's coaching. Keenan Allen, Goff, Lynch, and so on, mattered tremendously. But Cal hasn't had too much transformational talent lately, so it's on the coaches. Overall, I would say this 2022 team will be bigger, faster and stronger than those of a few year ago. But will that translate? Judging by 2021, we will win more or less the same. Wilcox is right that we were so close, but so it goes for every team. I've renewed my season tickets, but do I expect us to break through for 10 wins? Heck no. Surprise me, Bears.
I think it's safe to say that Cal will be pretty good on defense next year with some proven guys returning along with Brett Johnson to anchor the line. I think it's also safe to say they will be very mediocre on offense.
That's pretty much been the Wilcox MO since he arrived. Cal ranked 11th, 12th, and 12th in yards per game on offense in Wilcox' first three seasons. Last year, Cal rose to 7th in ypg, but those stats were padded by playing some pretty bad defenses like OSU, Colorado and Stanford. I mean, Jonathan Taylor fired his D coordinator after the Cal game. With all that senior leadership on offense last year, the offense still ranked near the bottom of the country in the total number of offensive series that led to third downs. That's not good, folks.
So I think more of the same next year with a lot of unproven but potentially talented players like Sturdivant and Terry looking to find their way in the uber conservative, sit on a lead style that Wilcox prefers without a quarterback like Garbers who can scramble them out of trouble. I still think a lot of close games because the defense will be that good. It's the Wilcox way.
By position group, I'd guess running back will be fine (depth is good), QB is a major unknown, offensive line will have to regroup but it's hard to see them as playing better than last season due to the losses from graduation and the transfer portal. Wide receivers and TE's are unknown - only Jeremiah Hunter had any significant playing time. Hopefully the high-potential Terry will enter the rotation, the other TE's need to add some weight.
On the defensive side I think the linebackers will be sufficient, Sirmon adds some punch to the group, due to several players emerging during the season. Corner and safety should be a strength with Hearns locking down one side and Colin Gamble (who improved during the season despite a rough start against Nevada) on the other. If Daniel Scott returns then we only have to replace Hicks, the other starter. The D-line, assuming Brett Johnson returns will be stronger.
Here is my prediction. Defense will be good and better than their rankings but they will look bad because they are going to be on the field a lot next season.
Offense is going to be bad, like Arizona bad. Hopefully Musgrave didn’t get a big extension.
I'm not one to put a lot of stock in these early season rankings, especially based on 'production lost'. One of the greatest failings of modern day sports writers is to tie future performance to past performance. While it is certainly true that programs like Bama, Clemson and The OSU (and others) continually recruit well and are at the top of the heap, you could say the same thing for them, just at a higher level. My biggest gripe about sports writers, and not you Nick or any of the WFC staff - you guys do some fun research that no one else does, is that they are lazy as shit. It's so much easier to say because we are losing production that we will be worse. Can you say the same thing about USC? Lol. I think not. What it comes down to is talent and has that talent been coached up to play successfully at the P5 level. I would argue that all across the board that we have young talent ready to step up into the vacancies left by other players. We are losing Hicks in our secondary and we will miss his experience, but I fully expect our young talent and our coaching to more than make up for his loss. We lost Cam Goode but picked up Xavier Carlton. At ILB we picked up Jackson Sirmon. And I think this year you'll see Trey Paster surprise some people. He's an athlete and he has speed. We have some BIG bodies on the inside and Brett Johnson will be back. If he regains his pre-accident form then he is an absolute beast. Rutchena has really come into his own as well. On the offensive side of the ball we finally have had a full season with Musgrave's system and will be entering year two. We have a stable of good running backs and just added 4 star Jayden Ott. I am sorry to see Chris Brooks go because I finally think he found his game this last year, and it was solid. Replacing his specific skill set is next to impossible because of his size and strength. Dancy was also a damn good player, but I fully expect our production to remain the same or get better in our running game. My one concern is turnovers. At receiver we have Hunter, Christakos and Sturdivant surrounded by some solid competition. At TE we have Keleli Latu and highly recruited beast Jermaine Terry. I actually think our o-line will be better next year than this year. While we only have 11 returning on the roster, there is more athleticism in this group than at any time since Wilcox has been here. And I am not that bummed out about Mettauer leaving. He was big and nasty, but he had poor technique and got out over his feet way too much. This led to a lot of holding penalties. I think that we have a starting 5 ready to play right now with Driscoll, Coleman, Rohme, and Craig. And, I think some of the young guys are going to compete for starting spots, perhaps even one of our freshmen. My one are of concern is at QB. Plummer has game experience but no experience in Musgrave's complex system and he has a ceiling. I think Kai Milner has a much higher ceiling but no game experience. The competition will end up with the best player on the field and don't rule out Zach Johnson; he's a baller too. I'm not going to pump sunshine and say we are going to win 10 games next year, but I'm not all doom and gloom and I don't see things the same way Bill Connelly does. I think we will have some growing pains next year but I also think the talent on the field will be the best since Wilcox has been here. My big question mark is how well will we coach them up? With the exception of traveling to Notre Dame, our preseason and early schedule is not tough and should be a little forgiving while we hopefully find our groove. Only time will tell.
Except in the cases of exceptional talent, I've never seen a case of correlation between those coming back and those leaving having an impact. It's coaching. Keenan Allen, Goff, Lynch, and so on, mattered tremendously. But Cal hasn't had too much transformational talent lately, so it's on the coaches. Overall, I would say this 2022 team will be bigger, faster and stronger than those of a few year ago. But will that translate? Judging by 2021, we will win more or less the same. Wilcox is right that we were so close, but so it goes for every team. I've renewed my season tickets, but do I expect us to break through for 10 wins? Heck no. Surprise me, Bears.
I think it's safe to say that Cal will be pretty good on defense next year with some proven guys returning along with Brett Johnson to anchor the line. I think it's also safe to say they will be very mediocre on offense.
That's pretty much been the Wilcox MO since he arrived. Cal ranked 11th, 12th, and 12th in yards per game on offense in Wilcox' first three seasons. Last year, Cal rose to 7th in ypg, but those stats were padded by playing some pretty bad defenses like OSU, Colorado and Stanford. I mean, Jonathan Taylor fired his D coordinator after the Cal game. With all that senior leadership on offense last year, the offense still ranked near the bottom of the country in the total number of offensive series that led to third downs. That's not good, folks.
So I think more of the same next year with a lot of unproven but potentially talented players like Sturdivant and Terry looking to find their way in the uber conservative, sit on a lead style that Wilcox prefers without a quarterback like Garbers who can scramble them out of trouble. I still think a lot of close games because the defense will be that good. It's the Wilcox way.
By position group, I'd guess running back will be fine (depth is good), QB is a major unknown, offensive line will have to regroup but it's hard to see them as playing better than last season due to the losses from graduation and the transfer portal. Wide receivers and TE's are unknown - only Jeremiah Hunter had any significant playing time. Hopefully the high-potential Terry will enter the rotation, the other TE's need to add some weight.
On the defensive side I think the linebackers will be sufficient, Sirmon adds some punch to the group, due to several players emerging during the season. Corner and safety should be a strength with Hearns locking down one side and Colin Gamble (who improved during the season despite a rough start against Nevada) on the other. If Daniel Scott returns then we only have to replace Hicks, the other starter. The D-line, assuming Brett Johnson returns will be stronger.
Here is my prediction. Defense will be good and better than their rankings but they will look bad because they are going to be on the field a lot next season.
Offense is going to be bad, like Arizona bad. Hopefully Musgrave didn’t get a big extension.
I had some hope, but as expected, Bimage is not on spring roster.
How do we have 30% QB passing yards returning?