Except in the cases of exceptional talent, I've never seen a case of correlation between those coming back and those leaving having an impact. It's coaching. Keenan Allen, Goff, Lynch, and so on, mattered tremendously. But Cal hasn't had too much transformational talent lately, so it's on the coaches. Overall, I would say this 2022 team will be bigger, faster and stronger than those of a few year ago. But will that translate? Judging by 2021, we will win more or less the same. Wilcox is right that we were so close, but so it goes for every team. I've renewed my season tickets, but do I expect us to break through for 10 wins? Heck no. Surprise me, Bears.
Here is my prediction. Defense will be good and better than their rankings but they will look bad because they are going to be on the field a lot next season.
Offense is going to be bad, like Arizona bad. Hopefully Musgrave didn’t get a big extension.
If this O was bottom of the P12 with a senior-laden squad, I’m anxious to see where they’re at with new players everywhere. I do like Plummer, & Hunter has breakout star potential.
Just basic competency could be a hurdle....over/under on 3 & outs per game, Rug? 3.5?
CamHand is correct, the returning production metric includes those categories, weighted in the formula by those percentages. So Cal would have a zero in the 29% of the formula made up of returning passing yards.
30%? If you mean the 37% reference, that should be the weighting. When considering the overall returning production, QB yds count 37% of the total... I think.
Oh, yeah. 29% for QB (I read the 37% for receivers...). I don't necessarily agree with the weightings (RB is really shorted here and in recruiting rankings) but if the folks who decided on the weighting think that's what it's worth... It seems like the wording is reasonable to me though a little terse. There is no explanation of rolling all these weighted values together to arrive at a composite number and I think that would help make sure the intent is clear. On the other hand, it might not be worth all this typing anyway...
Oh okay, I finally get it now. QB passing yards is valued at 29% when calculating returning production for the whole offense. Correct? None of those numbers are related to any of Cal's returning numbers. It's just there for us to understand how it's calculated. Thanks
I think it's safe to say that Cal will be pretty good on defense next year with some proven guys returning along with Brett Johnson to anchor the line. I think it's also safe to say they will be very mediocre on offense.
That's pretty much been the Wilcox MO since he arrived. Cal ranked 11th, 12th, and 12th in yards per game on offense in Wilcox' first three seasons. Last year, Cal rose to 7th in ypg, but those stats were padded by playing some pretty bad defenses like OSU, Colorado and Stanford. I mean, Jonathan Taylor fired his D coordinator after the Cal game. With all that senior leadership on offense last year, the offense still ranked near the bottom of the country in the total number of offensive series that led to third downs. That's not good, folks.
So I think more of the same next year with a lot of unproven but potentially talented players like Sturdivant and Terry looking to find their way in the uber conservative, sit on a lead style that Wilcox prefers without a quarterback like Garbers who can scramble them out of trouble. I still think a lot of close games because the defense will be that good. It's the Wilcox way.
I don't think the scrambling and improvisation will be there next season. That was Garbers' strength. Just imagine where we would be without his break-the-contain plays - even worse in terms of 3rd down conversion and red zone performance.
Yup. I see a lot of third and eights next year with Cal being stubborn with the run and opposing defenses loading the box. I am assuming that Plummer wins the QB job, and as you pointed out, he is not exactly Fran Tarkenton when looking at his stats from Purdue.
I'm hoping the passing game opens up, not just down field, but in the shorter or quicker/timing type of patterns in which receivers can get YAC on any down. Screens to Polk and then swing/wheel routes to CBJ seemed to be our most effective options when we had them. Chase simply was lacking certain QB abilities and made up for it with his legs when the play breaks down.. BUT the question is why was the play breaking down, it wasnt always terrible pass protection. I dont think Musgrave had the QB that he needed in Chase. I'm hoping it's Millner, but whoever it is, it will be great if they can make quick reads and put the ball when and where it needs to be in tight windows, and one who can develop some *chemistry* with his receivers. But yes, a lot of that will be dependent on play calling. I just think Musgrave will have more options with a more traditionally talented QB.
I agree completely, GB Four Niner! I just wonder how good the coaching staff is at evaluating and developing QB talent... Question for you: Do you think Musgrave really loved Garbers as his QB, or was he forced by Wilcox to love Garbers as his QB? And were the two coaches in agreement on not giving playing time to any other QBs at any point that made sense?
I think the personnel turnover on offense at the skill positions opens the door for the Hope that a fresh start can bring. We have talented young receivers who were under utilized and are now stepping into starting roles. If the offensive line is serviceable, we'll basically live or die with the QB. AOTG (Anyone other than Garbers) feels like a breath of fresh air, but of course can always end up being more of the same or worse.
I'm not one to put a lot of stock in these early season rankings, especially based on 'production lost'. One of the greatest failings of modern day sports writers is to tie future performance to past performance. While it is certainly true that programs like Bama, Clemson and The OSU (and others) continually recruit well and are at the top of the heap, you could say the same thing for them, just at a higher level. My biggest gripe about sports writers, and not you Nick or any of the WFC staff - you guys do some fun research that no one else does, is that they are lazy as shit. It's so much easier to say because we are losing production that we will be worse. Can you say the same thing about USC? Lol. I think not. What it comes down to is talent and has that talent been coached up to play successfully at the P5 level. I would argue that all across the board that we have young talent ready to step up into the vacancies left by other players. We are losing Hicks in our secondary and we will miss his experience, but I fully expect our young talent and our coaching to more than make up for his loss. We lost Cam Goode but picked up Xavier Carlton. At ILB we picked up Jackson Sirmon. And I think this year you'll see Trey Paster surprise some people. He's an athlete and he has speed. We have some BIG bodies on the inside and Brett Johnson will be back. If he regains his pre-accident form then he is an absolute beast. Rutchena has really come into his own as well. On the offensive side of the ball we finally have had a full season with Musgrave's system and will be entering year two. We have a stable of good running backs and just added 4 star Jayden Ott. I am sorry to see Chris Brooks go because I finally think he found his game this last year, and it was solid. Replacing his specific skill set is next to impossible because of his size and strength. Dancy was also a damn good player, but I fully expect our production to remain the same or get better in our running game. My one concern is turnovers. At receiver we have Hunter, Christakos and Sturdivant surrounded by some solid competition. At TE we have Keleli Latu and highly recruited beast Jermaine Terry. I actually think our o-line will be better next year than this year. While we only have 11 returning on the roster, there is more athleticism in this group than at any time since Wilcox has been here. And I am not that bummed out about Mettauer leaving. He was big and nasty, but he had poor technique and got out over his feet way too much. This led to a lot of holding penalties. I think that we have a starting 5 ready to play right now with Driscoll, Coleman, Rohme, and Craig. And, I think some of the young guys are going to compete for starting spots, perhaps even one of our freshmen. My one are of concern is at QB. Plummer has game experience but no experience in Musgrave's complex system and he has a ceiling. I think Kai Milner has a much higher ceiling but no game experience. The competition will end up with the best player on the field and don't rule out Zach Johnson; he's a baller too. I'm not going to pump sunshine and say we are going to win 10 games next year, but I'm not all doom and gloom and I don't see things the same way Bill Connelly does. I think we will have some growing pains next year but I also think the talent on the field will be the best since Wilcox has been here. My big question mark is how well will we coach them up? With the exception of traveling to Notre Dame, our preseason and early schedule is not tough and should be a little forgiving while we hopefully find our groove. Only time will tell.
"My biggest gripe about sports writers, and not you Nick or any of the WFC staff - you guys do some fun research that no one else does, is that they are lazy as shit."
FWIW, I reference Bill C's stuff specifically because I've been reading him for years and he puts in the work. He writes detailed previews of every team in the nation, reworks his metrics every year based on what actually predicts future performance, and measures his work against both the Vegas spreads and absolute error compared to final score. There are plenty of lazy sports writers, but Bill isn't one of them.
Nick, does he actually look at the talent we have and evaluate it? There is no way he goes through the talent on each team of returning players that haven't played. None of these sportswriters do a decent job of scouting the new players coming up. If they did you wouldn't have Cinderella teams each year. We'd have a good idea which teams are going to be real good. Second, so much of a winning team comes down to a really good QB. USC just landed one of the best in the country. Bo Nix at Oregon has never been real successful and Harsin at Auburn probably wasn't going to start him. If Oregon has the same woes at QB this year that they had last year, I would say they will see a fall off in production overall. In any event, I think you get the gist of what I am saying. And, metrics from the past are meaningless when predicting the future. It's like the basketball player who is on a hot streak and his 5 three pointers and then lines up for the game winner and misses. Its all independent and so much is based on the level of experience, talent and coaching. We lost some experience, but I think our talent this year is going to see a big boost. Now its up to the coaches and our QB play.
"Nick, does he actually look at the talent we have and evaluate it?"
Not by the definition you are using. His rankings are a blend of prior performance, returning production, and recruiting rankings. They are not perfect, because the future can't be predicted with 100% accuracy, but his predictions regularly equal if not outperform Vegas.
"And, metrics from the past are meaningless when predicting the future."
They really aren't. I get that they're not your thing and not everybody has to enjoy them, but there's a wide body of work here about does and does not have predictive value.
I am glad to see somebody else agree about Mettauer. He wasn't bad but I feel has been way overhyped by the fans. Wish him well at Oklahoma but don't think his transfer is as big a deal as some people think
Best news was hearing your positivity about the O-Line. I hope that this group develops an amazing chemistry and really begins to control the LOS. It's been a while since we've had this type of size and athleticism recruited to the O-Line. Everyone is 6'4" and 295lb+. Let's hope Angus and crew can coach them up.
I'm not sure we'll be dominant, but we will be serviceable and better than last year. Mettauer was terrible on pulls as well because he got over his feet. I loved Daltoso, what great kid and tough as nails, but he's just not a great athlete. Now it's up to Angus to get them coached up.
By position group, I'd guess running back will be fine (depth is good), QB is a major unknown, offensive line will have to regroup but it's hard to see them as playing better than last season due to the losses from graduation and the transfer portal. Wide receivers and TE's are unknown - only Jeremiah Hunter had any significant playing time. Hopefully the high-potential Terry will enter the rotation, the other TE's need to add some weight.
On the defensive side I think the linebackers will be sufficient, Sirmon adds some punch to the group, due to several players emerging during the season. Corner and safety should be a strength with Hearns locking down one side and Colin Gamble (who improved during the season despite a rough start against Nevada) on the other. If Daniel Scott returns then we only have to replace Hicks, the other starter. The D-line, assuming Brett Johnson returns will be stronger.
Except in the cases of exceptional talent, I've never seen a case of correlation between those coming back and those leaving having an impact. It's coaching. Keenan Allen, Goff, Lynch, and so on, mattered tremendously. But Cal hasn't had too much transformational talent lately, so it's on the coaches. Overall, I would say this 2022 team will be bigger, faster and stronger than those of a few year ago. But will that translate? Judging by 2021, we will win more or less the same. Wilcox is right that we were so close, but so it goes for every team. I've renewed my season tickets, but do I expect us to break through for 10 wins? Heck no. Surprise me, Bears.
Here is my prediction. Defense will be good and better than their rankings but they will look bad because they are going to be on the field a lot next season.
Offense is going to be bad, like Arizona bad. Hopefully Musgrave didn’t get a big extension.
I don't think offense will be that bad. But, we need to be able to run the ball effectively. If we can do that it solves a LOT of our problems at QB.
If this O was bottom of the P12 with a senior-laden squad, I’m anxious to see where they’re at with new players everywhere. I do like Plummer, & Hunter has breakout star potential.
Just basic competency could be a hurdle....over/under on 3 & outs per game, Rug? 3.5?
I had some hope, but as expected, Bimage is not on spring roster.
How do we have 30% QB passing yards returning?
CamHand is correct, the returning production metric includes those categories, weighted in the formula by those percentages. So Cal would have a zero in the 29% of the formula made up of returning passing yards.
Thanks, Nick!
30%? If you mean the 37% reference, that should be the weighting. When considering the overall returning production, QB yds count 37% of the total... I think.
It's 29%. But I see it's weighting. But I think it's still wrong or not worded correctly.
Oh, yeah. 29% for QB (I read the 37% for receivers...). I don't necessarily agree with the weightings (RB is really shorted here and in recruiting rankings) but if the folks who decided on the weighting think that's what it's worth... It seems like the wording is reasonable to me though a little terse. There is no explanation of rolling all these weighted values together to arrive at a composite number and I think that would help make sure the intent is clear. On the other hand, it might not be worth all this typing anyway...
Oh okay, I finally get it now. QB passing yards is valued at 29% when calculating returning production for the whole offense. Correct? None of those numbers are related to any of Cal's returning numbers. It's just there for us to understand how it's calculated. Thanks
Correct as I understand it... I reserve the right to be wrong except when debating with Furds.
You dont remember Glover's 800 yard game at Arizona?
I remember his 80 yard game lol
I think it's safe to say that Cal will be pretty good on defense next year with some proven guys returning along with Brett Johnson to anchor the line. I think it's also safe to say they will be very mediocre on offense.
That's pretty much been the Wilcox MO since he arrived. Cal ranked 11th, 12th, and 12th in yards per game on offense in Wilcox' first three seasons. Last year, Cal rose to 7th in ypg, but those stats were padded by playing some pretty bad defenses like OSU, Colorado and Stanford. I mean, Jonathan Taylor fired his D coordinator after the Cal game. With all that senior leadership on offense last year, the offense still ranked near the bottom of the country in the total number of offensive series that led to third downs. That's not good, folks.
So I think more of the same next year with a lot of unproven but potentially talented players like Sturdivant and Terry looking to find their way in the uber conservative, sit on a lead style that Wilcox prefers without a quarterback like Garbers who can scramble them out of trouble. I still think a lot of close games because the defense will be that good. It's the Wilcox way.
I don't think the scrambling and improvisation will be there next season. That was Garbers' strength. Just imagine where we would be without his break-the-contain plays - even worse in terms of 3rd down conversion and red zone performance.
Yup. I see a lot of third and eights next year with Cal being stubborn with the run and opposing defenses loading the box. I am assuming that Plummer wins the QB job, and as you pointed out, he is not exactly Fran Tarkenton when looking at his stats from Purdue.
I'm hoping the passing game opens up, not just down field, but in the shorter or quicker/timing type of patterns in which receivers can get YAC on any down. Screens to Polk and then swing/wheel routes to CBJ seemed to be our most effective options when we had them. Chase simply was lacking certain QB abilities and made up for it with his legs when the play breaks down.. BUT the question is why was the play breaking down, it wasnt always terrible pass protection. I dont think Musgrave had the QB that he needed in Chase. I'm hoping it's Millner, but whoever it is, it will be great if they can make quick reads and put the ball when and where it needs to be in tight windows, and one who can develop some *chemistry* with his receivers. But yes, a lot of that will be dependent on play calling. I just think Musgrave will have more options with a more traditionally talented QB.
I agree completely, GB Four Niner! I just wonder how good the coaching staff is at evaluating and developing QB talent... Question for you: Do you think Musgrave really loved Garbers as his QB, or was he forced by Wilcox to love Garbers as his QB? And were the two coaches in agreement on not giving playing time to any other QBs at any point that made sense?
I think the personnel turnover on offense at the skill positions opens the door for the Hope that a fresh start can bring. We have talented young receivers who were under utilized and are now stepping into starting roles. If the offensive line is serviceable, we'll basically live or die with the QB. AOTG (Anyone other than Garbers) feels like a breath of fresh air, but of course can always end up being more of the same or worse.
I'm not one to put a lot of stock in these early season rankings, especially based on 'production lost'. One of the greatest failings of modern day sports writers is to tie future performance to past performance. While it is certainly true that programs like Bama, Clemson and The OSU (and others) continually recruit well and are at the top of the heap, you could say the same thing for them, just at a higher level. My biggest gripe about sports writers, and not you Nick or any of the WFC staff - you guys do some fun research that no one else does, is that they are lazy as shit. It's so much easier to say because we are losing production that we will be worse. Can you say the same thing about USC? Lol. I think not. What it comes down to is talent and has that talent been coached up to play successfully at the P5 level. I would argue that all across the board that we have young talent ready to step up into the vacancies left by other players. We are losing Hicks in our secondary and we will miss his experience, but I fully expect our young talent and our coaching to more than make up for his loss. We lost Cam Goode but picked up Xavier Carlton. At ILB we picked up Jackson Sirmon. And I think this year you'll see Trey Paster surprise some people. He's an athlete and he has speed. We have some BIG bodies on the inside and Brett Johnson will be back. If he regains his pre-accident form then he is an absolute beast. Rutchena has really come into his own as well. On the offensive side of the ball we finally have had a full season with Musgrave's system and will be entering year two. We have a stable of good running backs and just added 4 star Jayden Ott. I am sorry to see Chris Brooks go because I finally think he found his game this last year, and it was solid. Replacing his specific skill set is next to impossible because of his size and strength. Dancy was also a damn good player, but I fully expect our production to remain the same or get better in our running game. My one concern is turnovers. At receiver we have Hunter, Christakos and Sturdivant surrounded by some solid competition. At TE we have Keleli Latu and highly recruited beast Jermaine Terry. I actually think our o-line will be better next year than this year. While we only have 11 returning on the roster, there is more athleticism in this group than at any time since Wilcox has been here. And I am not that bummed out about Mettauer leaving. He was big and nasty, but he had poor technique and got out over his feet way too much. This led to a lot of holding penalties. I think that we have a starting 5 ready to play right now with Driscoll, Coleman, Rohme, and Craig. And, I think some of the young guys are going to compete for starting spots, perhaps even one of our freshmen. My one are of concern is at QB. Plummer has game experience but no experience in Musgrave's complex system and he has a ceiling. I think Kai Milner has a much higher ceiling but no game experience. The competition will end up with the best player on the field and don't rule out Zach Johnson; he's a baller too. I'm not going to pump sunshine and say we are going to win 10 games next year, but I'm not all doom and gloom and I don't see things the same way Bill Connelly does. I think we will have some growing pains next year but I also think the talent on the field will be the best since Wilcox has been here. My big question mark is how well will we coach them up? With the exception of traveling to Notre Dame, our preseason and early schedule is not tough and should be a little forgiving while we hopefully find our groove. Only time will tell.
"My biggest gripe about sports writers, and not you Nick or any of the WFC staff - you guys do some fun research that no one else does, is that they are lazy as shit."
FWIW, I reference Bill C's stuff specifically because I've been reading him for years and he puts in the work. He writes detailed previews of every team in the nation, reworks his metrics every year based on what actually predicts future performance, and measures his work against both the Vegas spreads and absolute error compared to final score. There are plenty of lazy sports writers, but Bill isn't one of them.
Nick, does he actually look at the talent we have and evaluate it? There is no way he goes through the talent on each team of returning players that haven't played. None of these sportswriters do a decent job of scouting the new players coming up. If they did you wouldn't have Cinderella teams each year. We'd have a good idea which teams are going to be real good. Second, so much of a winning team comes down to a really good QB. USC just landed one of the best in the country. Bo Nix at Oregon has never been real successful and Harsin at Auburn probably wasn't going to start him. If Oregon has the same woes at QB this year that they had last year, I would say they will see a fall off in production overall. In any event, I think you get the gist of what I am saying. And, metrics from the past are meaningless when predicting the future. It's like the basketball player who is on a hot streak and his 5 three pointers and then lines up for the game winner and misses. Its all independent and so much is based on the level of experience, talent and coaching. We lost some experience, but I think our talent this year is going to see a big boost. Now its up to the coaches and our QB play.
"Nick, does he actually look at the talent we have and evaluate it?"
Not by the definition you are using. His rankings are a blend of prior performance, returning production, and recruiting rankings. They are not perfect, because the future can't be predicted with 100% accuracy, but his predictions regularly equal if not outperform Vegas.
"And, metrics from the past are meaningless when predicting the future."
They really aren't. I get that they're not your thing and not everybody has to enjoy them, but there's a wide body of work here about does and does not have predictive value.
Our TE situation reminds me a little of New England this year with Hunter Henry and Jannu Smith. Hopefully Terry will be better utilized than Smith!
I am glad to see somebody else agree about Mettauer. He wasn't bad but I feel has been way overhyped by the fans. Wish him well at Oklahoma but don't think his transfer is as big a deal as some people think
Best news was hearing your positivity about the O-Line. I hope that this group develops an amazing chemistry and really begins to control the LOS. It's been a while since we've had this type of size and athleticism recruited to the O-Line. Everyone is 6'4" and 295lb+. Let's hope Angus and crew can coach them up.
I'm not sure we'll be dominant, but we will be serviceable and better than last year. Mettauer was terrible on pulls as well because he got over his feet. I loved Daltoso, what great kid and tough as nails, but he's just not a great athlete. Now it's up to Angus to get them coached up.
By position group, I'd guess running back will be fine (depth is good), QB is a major unknown, offensive line will have to regroup but it's hard to see them as playing better than last season due to the losses from graduation and the transfer portal. Wide receivers and TE's are unknown - only Jeremiah Hunter had any significant playing time. Hopefully the high-potential Terry will enter the rotation, the other TE's need to add some weight.
On the defensive side I think the linebackers will be sufficient, Sirmon adds some punch to the group, due to several players emerging during the season. Corner and safety should be a strength with Hearns locking down one side and Colin Gamble (who improved during the season despite a rough start against Nevada) on the other. If Daniel Scott returns then we only have to replace Hicks, the other starter. The D-line, assuming Brett Johnson returns will be stronger.
Just look at the picture at the top of this article. It's a picture of Scott on the Spring football announcement.
Also he's listed on the 2022 Spring roster.
Did you check? If so, mind sharing?
Cheeky son of a gun...... : )
I admire your earnest honesty. This might be my favorite post from you. The only thing it is lacking is a Wikipedia link to the ACC and SEC.