You do a good job of portraying the complexities and subtleties of our situation and feelings. Well done. No one is satisfied with 5-7, but I would say we would be "satisfied" with an annual 7-5 and a bowl game with wins over rivals tossed in. I really love having Wilcox. Mr. No Drama. Players love him. The most solid human being I see out there coaching. If he can just get great out of Musgrave, or a solid OC, it would be fantastic.
I'm fine with 6 or 7 wins a year, no drama, and a high graduation rate. It'd be fun if the team won more consistently, but the school has a rep to protect and schools that try to cut corners and get rich quick often end up losing just as much as before and embarrassing themselves in the process.
I'm sure a breakthrough season couldn't hurt, but more successful programs in our region (whom I decline to address by name) are also on the outside looking in. I'm not sure it will factor much. I don't expect a breakthrough season as far as wins / losses, but I do hope to see some improvement on the offensive side of the ball. The frustrating thing to me is that this should be the type of season you use on developing a young QB. If we're gonna burn this year on Plummer, we really should get a bowl game for it to be worth it.
The issue is Cal probably only whittles the 7.6 million viewers they don't deliver down to ~7.55 million with a breakthrough 8 win season, and an LA Bowl appearance.
Exactly. Though it's probably safe to say that if they show any improvement on the offensive side of the ball, a breakthrough season is a real possibility given the strength of the D...but we'll see.
I'm reading this and suddenly it strikes me: Justin Wilcox is channeling Ray Willsey. Very similar winning percentage with a similar emphasis on defense. Willsey's defenses were known as the Bear Minimum defense.
Maybe history doesn't necessarily repeat, but it does rhyme.
For years I sat next to a former Cal running back who played for Willsey. He thought the world of him especially the way he handled a revolt of black players. Willsey did about the best he could coaching in Berkeley in the late Sixties, not an ideal time to head a football program. Everyone liked him. That said, he was probably no better than a slightly above average coach in terms of wins and losses. His last three seasons bear that out (no pun intended). I've been thinking (fearing) for a couple of years now that Wilcox is of the same mold.
This is year 6. Anything less than 8 regular season wins should be considered a failure. There are no more excuses. Coming up short of expectations will be squarely placed on Wilcox’s shoulders.
I think I got into a discussion with FiatSlug about the expectations. 8 wins would be considered an excellent year considering his best class would be next year. I think the goal this year is bowling. I think we can do just that. 7-6 to 9-4 is a very realistic expectation considering where Wilcox is in his career.
He has gotten one really good win every year since he has been here. Lets hope that continues and we take down the Irish.
I think a successful season could help us make the argument to move to the B1G. It really comes down to whether or not it reinvigorates our fan base or not.
My guess is that UCLA may quietly start to lobby for the key west coast schools to come with them, as they start to feel the pinch of the logistical challenges associated with geography and the political pressure surrounding this move. It might not work, and they may not care that much, but you have to think it would solve a lot of problems for them. If that is a consideration, then having a strong season and a memorial stadium that is filled will look better for the execs deciding whether or not it’ll look good on TV
I don't want Cal in the Big 10 or any stronger conference. If anything they need to take a step back in competition level so they have a chance at an occasional conference championship.
Nice article. I think as long as we have a 5-7 and 7-5 dichotomy then Wilcox' seat will stay cool. A year of some disappointment followed by a year of mild success keeps fans from calling for his scalp. And fair to middlin' may be about as good as it gets for the program. And the administration appears to be satisfied with this. If Cal were in the SEC Wilcox already would have been shown the exit.
8 wins seems like a very bad bet, and Knowlton may be the most trigger shy AD in all of college athletics. I see few scenarios in which Wilcox is on the hot seat. The fans may want him there, but there's really only one opinion that counts.
If we had a more ambitious AD I'd think that five or less wins this season would put Wilcox on the hot seat and failing to win more than six in '23 would get him sacked. But we have Knowlton so....
I think considering the talent we have this year and everyone else's talent. 5-7 is the most realistic scenario. However, we could very well go 9-3 (total ceiling this year) if we can just get the ball to bounce our way sometimes in these one score games.
In the SEC, non-Vanderbilt locations, Wilcox would have received more support and encountered fewer obstacles from the administration, campus, and community. Context matters when evaluating results.
Speculation doesn’t help anyone in these types of cases. When there is official word we will report it but as of now the facts are the roster was released and he is not on the roster. Nothing more. Nothing less.
I dont have an answer as to the "why", but when you google him the first result is his calbears.com player profile, and when you click that link you get a 404 page not found error. So, either this is some technical data issue which both kept him from the roster and causes his profile page to error, or.. its likely he is off the team and wont be back, and probably for reasons that wont be discussed if they didnt announce it.
You do a good job of portraying the complexities and subtleties of our situation and feelings. Well done. No one is satisfied with 5-7, but I would say we would be "satisfied" with an annual 7-5 and a bowl game with wins over rivals tossed in. I really love having Wilcox. Mr. No Drama. Players love him. The most solid human being I see out there coaching. If he can just get great out of Musgrave, or a solid OC, it would be fantastic.
I'm fine with 6 or 7 wins a year, no drama, and a high graduation rate. It'd be fun if the team won more consistently, but the school has a rep to protect and schools that try to cut corners and get rich quick often end up losing just as much as before and embarrassing themselves in the process.
what would help?
beat ucla and usc this year.
and every year after.
may the entire pac12 go to those games with a vendetta and play out of their minds
I'm sure a breakthrough season couldn't hurt, but more successful programs in our region (whom I decline to address by name) are also on the outside looking in. I'm not sure it will factor much. I don't expect a breakthrough season as far as wins / losses, but I do hope to see some improvement on the offensive side of the ball. The frustrating thing to me is that this should be the type of season you use on developing a young QB. If we're gonna burn this year on Plummer, we really should get a bowl game for it to be worth it.
The issue is Cal probably only whittles the 7.6 million viewers they don't deliver down to ~7.55 million with a breakthrough 8 win season, and an LA Bowl appearance.
Exactly. Though it's probably safe to say that if they show any improvement on the offensive side of the ball, a breakthrough season is a real possibility given the strength of the D...but we'll see.
Nice work Nick.
I’m hooked for the long ride even though Joe Kapp will remain tequila-less in perpetuity .
Go Bears!
I'm reading this and suddenly it strikes me: Justin Wilcox is channeling Ray Willsey. Very similar winning percentage with a similar emphasis on defense. Willsey's defenses were known as the Bear Minimum defense.
Maybe history doesn't necessarily repeat, but it does rhyme.
For years I sat next to a former Cal running back who played for Willsey. He thought the world of him especially the way he handled a revolt of black players. Willsey did about the best he could coaching in Berkeley in the late Sixties, not an ideal time to head a football program. Everyone liked him. That said, he was probably no better than a slightly above average coach in terms of wins and losses. His last three seasons bear that out (no pun intended). I've been thinking (fearing) for a couple of years now that Wilcox is of the same mold.
This is year 6. Anything less than 8 regular season wins should be considered a failure. There are no more excuses. Coming up short of expectations will be squarely placed on Wilcox’s shoulders.
I think I got into a discussion with FiatSlug about the expectations. 8 wins would be considered an excellent year considering his best class would be next year. I think the goal this year is bowling. I think we can do just that. 7-6 to 9-4 is a very realistic expectation considering where Wilcox is in his career.
He has gotten one really good win every year since he has been here. Lets hope that continues and we take down the Irish.
Haven't seen a Fall camp schedule yet and have been looking. Anyone know when it was or will be released?
I was wondering this as well. I'm pretty sure it will start within the week
I think a successful season could help us make the argument to move to the B1G. It really comes down to whether or not it reinvigorates our fan base or not.
My guess is that UCLA may quietly start to lobby for the key west coast schools to come with them, as they start to feel the pinch of the logistical challenges associated with geography and the political pressure surrounding this move. It might not work, and they may not care that much, but you have to think it would solve a lot of problems for them. If that is a consideration, then having a strong season and a memorial stadium that is filled will look better for the execs deciding whether or not it’ll look good on TV
We should try the cardboard tactic again!
That's how we attended all home games in 2020 without actually being there!
I don't want Cal in the Big 10 or any stronger conference. If anything they need to take a step back in competition level so they have a chance at an occasional conference championship.
Yes, yes and yes. I'm in for all of it. True blue. Go Bears!
Nice article. I think as long as we have a 5-7 and 7-5 dichotomy then Wilcox' seat will stay cool. A year of some disappointment followed by a year of mild success keeps fans from calling for his scalp. And fair to middlin' may be about as good as it gets for the program. And the administration appears to be satisfied with this. If Cal were in the SEC Wilcox already would have been shown the exit.
5-7 should absolutely put Wilcox on the hot seat going into our final season of Pac12 play.
Anything less than 8 regular season would be a second disappointing season in a row.
8 wins seems like a very bad bet, and Knowlton may be the most trigger shy AD in all of college athletics. I see few scenarios in which Wilcox is on the hot seat. The fans may want him there, but there's really only one opinion that counts.
If we had a more ambitious AD I'd think that five or less wins this season would put Wilcox on the hot seat and failing to win more than six in '23 would get him sacked. But we have Knowlton so....
You/Cal have Knowlton, and also the people who give Knowlton his directions on how to proceed, and set his parameters and resource limitations.
I think considering the talent we have this year and everyone else's talent. 5-7 is the most realistic scenario. However, we could very well go 9-3 (total ceiling this year) if we can just get the ball to bounce our way sometimes in these one score games.
In the SEC, non-Vanderbilt locations, Wilcox would have received more support and encountered fewer obstacles from the administration, campus, and community. Context matters when evaluating results.
True enough
Kevin Riley bear Stanfurd twice
I think Holmoe was a decent recruiter, look at the talent he left Tedford. It also illustrates how bad of a coach he was.
Speculation doesn’t help anyone in these types of cases. When there is official word we will report it but as of now the facts are the roster was released and he is not on the roster. Nothing more. Nothing less.
Hope the kid is okay.
Student privacy laws make it very difficult for anyone to report on the why itself unless the student reveals the reason.
I dont have an answer as to the "why", but when you google him the first result is his calbears.com player profile, and when you click that link you get a 404 page not found error. So, either this is some technical data issue which both kept him from the roster and causes his profile page to error, or.. its likely he is off the team and wont be back, and probably for reasons that wont be discussed if they didnt announce it.
Did you try wikipedia?
Which was rather shocking in and of itself, to be honest. He probably won't see 2027 with a couple more 5-7 seasons, extension or not.
History shows Cal will likely be somewhere between 5-7 and 7-5.
Is it time to hit that sweet spot and go 6-6?
That would be a change, at least. If only we could have had Wilcox as DC under Dykes, or Dykes as OC under Wilcox.
It would be the most Wilcox thing ever for him to go 6-6 with a mildly improved offense.