2024 Cal Football in Review: The Defense

Looking back at a unit that throttled bad offenses but struggled against elite competition

photo via @calfootball twitter

Last week we looked back at the Cal offense, a disappointing unit in whole that will look very different next season. Now it’s time to look back on unit that was mostly surprising but in a good way last year, but that will ALSO look very different in the fall.

2024 Defense Statistical Summary

Statistical rankings

• 1.96 points/drive allowed, 41st in the nation, 5th in the ACC

• 5.0 Yards/play, 24^th in the nation, 2nd (of 17) in the ACC

• 3.3 Yards/run, 15th in the nation, 3rd in the ACC

• 6.7 Yards/pass attempt, 40th in the nation, 3rd in the ACC

• 22 Turnovers gained, 27^th in the nation, tied for 5th in the ACC

Advanced Stats

Success Rate: 41%, 87th in the nation.
SP+: 40th in the nation, 5th in the ACC
FEI: 42nd in the nation, 6th in the ACC

You will notice that Cal’s yards/play and turnover numbers generally look excellent, while the yards/drive and advanced stat rankings look more mediocre. I think there are two reasons for that. I’ll get to the 2nd reason below. But the first reason? Cal’s defense faced a very very easy set of opponents.

In the regular season, Cal faced three good offenses: Miami (arguably the best offense in the country), and Syracuse and SMU (top 25 offenses). Cal did pretty poorly against all three of those offenses.

The next best offense on Cal’s schedule? That would probably be NC State, who had a roughly FBS average offenses. Meanwhile, the Bears got to beat up on a series of really bad offenses like SDSU, Florida State, and Stanford.

So what the advanced stats see is a defense that was able to handle bad teams but was gettable against actually good offenses, and so Cal’s ranks are adjusted to compensate for that reality.

Biggest Strength: Run defense explosiveness & defensive back havoc

Nohl Williams rightfully got the headlines with his excellent CB play, but Cal as a unit finished 7th in the country in total interceptions and 5th in the country in total passes defended, a stat that’s correlated with interceptions.

Meanwhile, Cal’s run defense was elite at preventing big rushing plays, allowing only seven runs of 20+ yards and two runs of 30+ yards all season long - both top 10 national numbers. Cal’s run fits and point of attack run defense were excellent all year long . . . though it probably helps that of the few good offenses Cal played this year, they were mostly pass-focused offenses. Still, when you’re talking about being able to count run busts on one hand you’re doing really really well.

Biggest Weakness: Situational plays

Now it’s time to get to the 2nd reason why Cal’s big picture numbers aren’t great compared to the per/play stats. Even taking into account strength of schedule, why the discrepancy?

Because Cal’s defense was pretty bad situationally. Specifically, Cal allowed opponents to convert 24 (out of 38) 4th down attempts, which believe it or not was LAST in the nation by volume of conversions allowed. Meanwhile, Cal was very good at keeping teams out of the red zone - they only faced 34 red zone possessions, tied for 7th best in the country! BUT - Cal also allowed touchdowns on 24 of those 34 red zone attempts, a 71% touchdown allowed rate that ranked 121st in the country. In short, Cal just about allowed the maximum number of points for the yards that they surrendered, rendering the defense less effective than they ‘should’ have been in the aggregate. The Florida State, Pitt, and NC State games were all examples of games where the opponent really didn’t move the ball much, but on the rare occasions when they did, it resulted in touchdowns. It would be unfair to pin those losses on the defense, but it’s also true that holding those teams to field goals rather than touchdowns could have swung any or all of those games.

Is there anything to learn or fix from this, or is it just random chance? After all, 4th down attempts only make up 4% of the plays that Cal had to defend this year, and those 34 red zone possessions only represent the ending sequence of roughly 25% of the drives that Cal defended. We’re talking about maybe 10% of the total field time of the defense. But it’s hard to look past the damage done when the most consequential plays don’t go your way.

How were Cal’s defining questions answered?

Can the David Reese that nearly beat Washington State and UCLA by himself play like that for a full season?

Sigh. Thanks to injuries, Reese ended up playing 130 fewer snaps in 2024 as compared to 2023, and saw his pressure numbers decline at roughly the same proportion. And like 2023, there were occasional flashes against Pitt and Wake Forest, but it was only flashes.

However, I may have been asking the wrong question, because Cal’s pass rush certainly improved. That was partly down to Teddye Buchanan’s ability to pass rush from the ILB position, partly down to improved play from Cal’s interior linemen, particularly Aidan Keanaaina and T.J. Bollers, and the emergence of Ryan McCulloch as a rush linebacker who Call will really want to keep healthy for the full 2025 season.

Can Cade Uluave keep his big play instinct with improved down-to-down play?

Well, after totaling 3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and 2 interceptions in partial playing time in 2023, Uluave went for just 1 sack, 0 forced fumbles, and 1 interception in ~8 healthy games in 2024. But he did improve as a down-to-down player, particularly in his run fits and tackling.

The hope for 2025 will be that 1. Uluave stays healthy for the entire season and 2. finds a way to combine the disruption he showed as a freshmen with the more consistent down-to-down play he displayed as a sophomore. The potential is certainly there if he can put the total package together.

Can Cal’s DBs bounce back?

Indeed they could! Nohl Williams and Craig Woodson both had huge seasons and both would be worthy candidates for 2024 defensive MVP, and they anchored a unit that had very few missteps all season long. Meanwhile, Marcus Harris stepped into fill a vacuum at Cal’s other corner spot that was a challenge in 2023 and Miles Williams was a steady contributor at safety alongside Woodson in his first year as a full time starter.

Predictions in Review

Here’s what I wrote back in August:

I expect the 2024 Bears to return to roughly average power conference defensive performance and results, because frankly Cal won’t face many (any?) elite offenses. Miami should have a top 20 offense, but unless Florida State and SMU improve on their week 1 performance, that’s probably it.

Miami did indeed have a top 20 offense, and SMU did indeed improve on their week 1 performance, and Kyle McCord became quite a threat in the Syracuse air raid offense, but this was pretty much right. One elite offense, two good offenses, and 9 offenses that ranged from average to bad.

Which is to say that the defense will probably look VASTLY better without actually being vastly better. Remember when we thought the defense was going to be really good because we stonewalled Auburn? Well, the schedule is mostly Auburn type teams this year.

I do think that the defense got somewhat better this year. Teddye Buchanan and Marcus Harris helped stabilize the ILB and DB groups respectively, and Cal saw improved play along the line pretty much across the board whether that was due to transfers or roster development. But the vast sea change in opponent quality does speak volumes.

I think the defense settles somewhere in the 40s nationally by the advanced metrics, which would probably place them about 8th, middle of the pack in the ACC (which, for what it’s worth, is a better defensive conference than an offensive conference).

Well, Cal was 40th in SP+ and 42 in FEI, so that prediction gets an A. I did overestimate the quality of ACC defenses just a touch. Cal was clearly behind Clemson and SMU, and just a touch behind Virginia Tech and Duke, settling in as roughly the 5th best defense in the ACC, a conference that didn’t really have any elite defenses.

The question now is how Cal rebuilds after losing so many of the pieces that made the defense what it was in 2024. Cal returns much of their front 4 talent, but they have a big question mark alongside Cade Uluave at inside linebacker and an even bigger group of questions in a secondary that will have to be almost entirely rebuilt.