2025 Cal Football in Review: The Defense

One final look back at a Justin Wilcox defense that was, as usual, defined by secondary play

photo via @calfootball twitter

Another day, another review of a unit that will be almost entirely made over in year one under Tosh Lupoi.

I have to admit to feeling almost a little bit nostalgic. In nine years, it became very difficult to say anything new about a Justin Wilcox defense. Strong secondary play, big play prevention, struggles to disrupt up front . . . there just wasn’t that much variation from year to year. But in his final season, the defense did take a notable step back. Let’s try to figure out why:

2025 Defense Statistical Summary

Statistical rankings

• 2.26 points/drive allowed, 72nd in the nation, 9th (of 17) in the ACC

• 5.5 Yards/play, 62nd in the nation, 10th in the ACC

• 4.7 Yards/run, 105th in the nation, 15th in the ACC

• 6.4 Yards/pass attempt, 25th in the nation, 4th in the ACC

• 13 Turnovers gained, 27^th in the nation, tied for 11th in the ACC

Advanced Stats

Defensive EPA: 69th in the nation, 10th in the ACC
SP+: 72nd in the nation, 12th in the ACC
FEI: 74nd in the nation, 12th in the ACC

Here’s an interesting stat - in pass happy modern college football, Cal actually faced more rushing attempts (431) than passing attempts (420). That, I think, is a pretty clear reflection of the strengths and weaknesses of the Cal defense.

When a Justin Wilcox defense is good, they slow down the opponent’s run game just enough to force long passing downs, when the excellent secondary can make plays and end drives. When a Justin Wilcox defense is mediocre, they can’t really slow down the opponent’s run game, they don’t force many passing downs at all, and the secondary is forced to play in coverage too long behind a pass rush that struggles to get home.

And that’s exactly what we saw in 2025, but this time against a weak schedule. Which is why these are some of the lowest advanced stat rankings we’ve seen on the defensive side of the ball under Justin Wilcox.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Biggest Strength: Cornerback coverage

There were few teams that wouldn’t have gladly taken the coverage play Cal got from Paco Austin and Hezekiah Masses. Per PFF, Cal’s edge corner duo were targeted 109 times, giving up 52 catches for 694 yards. That’s a completion percentage of 48%. Austin was maybe more of a shut down corner, getting targeted less often. But Masses was a big play guy, coming down with 5 picks.

Biggest Weakness: Point of attack disruption

Sacks? 100th in the nation. Tackles for loss? 102nd. Run stuff rate? Well below the national average. Cal lost Ryan McCulloch to injury against San Diego State, and with him went any kind of edge disruption. And while Cal’s veteran interior linemen were pretty good at maintaining gap integrity and tackling, it didn’t result in linebackers or safeties shooting gaps to stuff runs.

How were Cal’s defining questions answered?

Can a more experienced front 6 turn small gains into stuffs or negative yardage?

Sadly, no. It’s honestly a little perplexing how much Cal’s defensive front generally, and run defense specifically, regressed. Teddye Buchanan turned out to be a player that Cal wasn’t able to replace, and as noted above the injury to Ryan McCulloch really hurt as well. But Cal also missed Xavier Carlton, David Reese, and Nate Burrell. When none of the returners made any real developmental leaps, and none of the portal additions were able to match the production of the guys who left/were injured, then you get a defensive front that really didn’t meet pre-season expectations.

Will Cal’s secondary allow too many big plays?

No, and decisively. The Bears only allowed one pass completion of 50+ yards all year (thought that only bomb allowed against SDSU hurt) and the secondary was the least of Cal’s concerns. Paco Austin and Hezekiah Masses stepped seamlessly into the starting lineup, and the secondary didn’t really miss a beat. Even after losing safety Isaiah Crosby after four games, Cal’s secondary was once again the strength of the defense. I’ve certainly made my issues with Justin Wilcox clear over the years, but I will miss that man’s ability to build a defensive backfield.

Does Cal have the best ILB duo in the ACC outside of Clemson?

Hooooo boy was this, in retrospect, not the right question. I was operating under the assumption that Harrison Taggert would start for Cal alongside Cade Uluave, but Luke Ferrelli ended up unexpectedly winning that position battle. Ferrelli was a solid player and had his flashes, but both he and Uluave struggled with their run fits and tackling, and a position group that was expected to be a major strength ended up being a relative weakness. Uluave is now off to BYU while Ferrelli took a rather embarrassing route to Ole Miss.

Predictions in Review

DL: Two rock solid returnees, solid depth . . . this should be as strong as Cal has been on the defensive front since the first couple of Wilcox defenses. Improvement

I noted above that Cal’s defense was worse against the run and didn’t manage as much disruption. I don’t think that’s because Keanaaina and Bollers got worse - I think those guys were basically the exact same players in 2025 as they were in 2024, and the talent around them got weaker. I probably should’ve pegged this as a Push.

OLB: It’s hard not to see this unit getting better. True, Xavier Carlton and David Reese are not a trivial players to replace. But it’s safe assumption that Ryan McCulloch will be better than either of them with better health and another season of development under his belt. And T.J. Bush was one of the more highly sought after edge rushers for a reason. If those two players remain healthy, this unit should see Improvement

Again, the loss of McCulloch, maybe the single hardest-to-replace player on the defense, can’t be overstated. T.J. Bush was a solid option on one side of the line as a pass rusher, though his impact as a run defender was less pronounced. But on the other side of the line, Cal struggled to find impact guys. Jayden Wayne ended up getting the bulk of the playing time and Chris Victor got time, but ultimately McCulloch brought a level of disruption that didn’t exist anywhere else on the roster. This was another area of Regression, though with an injury asterix.

ILB: Cade is still Cade, but hopefully healthier this year. Encouragingly, Cal has brought in some really intriguing talent via the portal and yet Luke Ferrelli is reportedly pushing for playing time. But they have large cleats to fill in Teddye Buchanan, Cal’s best front six player last year. This year’s group is certainly deeper and more able to absorb injuries, but I don’t know if Buchanan’s actually production will be exceeded. Push

I had a lot of respect for what Teddye Buchanan did last year, and yet I still underestimated the challenge of replacing his production. What can you say, the dude started 13 games for the Baltimore-freaking-Ravens before suffering a season ending injury. This was a position of major Regression.

Secondary: On one hand, I believe in the ability of a Justin-Wilcox-led coaching staff to develop defensive backs. On the other hand, I can’t just hand-wave away the reality that Cal is replacing 90% of their 2024 DB rotation, highlighted by three dudes who were selected in the NFL draft. I don’t think that Cal’s secondary is going to fall off a cliff, but this is still a pretty clear case for Regression.

I do think there was some regression in the secondary, though moreso as a run defense unit. Craig Woodson, Nohl Williams, and Marcus Harris were all excellent run defenders for their positions in 2024, and so Cal relatively regressed in that area. But in terms of pure coverage ability, Cal took at most a small step back, which is impressive considering the level of NFL talent that departed from the 2024 secondary. So I ultimately must harshly stick with regression, but from an A- to a B+.

What does it mean for 2026?

Of the 20 defensive players who received more than 100 snaps in 2025, here is a list of who will be back in 2026:

• Aiden Manutai, safety (6th in snaps)

• Jayden Wayne, OLB (7th)

• Cam Sidney, DB (10th)

• Jasiah Wagoner, DB (12th)

• Isaiah Crosby, safety (18th)

• Aaron Hampton, ILB (19th)

• Jordan Sanford, safety (20th)

That’s Cal’s starting nickel (Sidney) and back up nickel (Wagoner), the guy who was supposed to start at safety (Crosby) and the guy who replaced him after injury (Manutai), an OLB back-up forced into major action due to injury (Wayne), a back-up ILB (Hampton) and back-up safety (Sanford).

Of those guys, only Isaiah Crosby will likely enter fall camp as a favorite to start, although Manutai, Sidney, Wayne, and Wagoner will likely be involved in camp battles. And Nate Burrell is the other returner likely to be in the mix to start after missing 2025 with an injury.

What does that tell you about the 2026 defense? Not very much! Unsurprisingly, it’s going to be a defense that is heavily dependent on production from portal players. And because much of Cal’s portal additions on the defensive side are former 4 star recruits who haven’t yet broken out on the field, we’re not going to have a ton of data with which to project.