Cal Football 2025: Against All Odds

Cal keeps it interesting

For Cal football, “covering” has taken on an existential dimension. Redefining—and, more importantly, defying—expectations is key. In an era when conference realignment and media money have turned college football into a high-stakes race for relevance, Cal’s ability to overperform against the odds is a matter of survival.

Compared to the rest of FBS, the Bears have a relatively high cover rate. Call it the Wilcox paradox: a program steady enough to stay in most games, yet unpredictable enough to turn would-be blow outs into close calls.

Since 2017, Cal has been a riddle. They’ve covered much more than they’ve won: 56% of the time against the spread, compared to 46% win rate. As the plot below shows, about a third of Cal’s games fall into the “win and cover” sweet spot. Another fifth? Losses that manage to exceed expectations—a testament to defensive grit.

When favored, Cal covers more often than not—about two-thirds of the time at home. But as underdogs, they revert back to coin-flip territory and their homefield advantage seems to evaporate. Perhaps it’s a reminder that the team feeds off energy as much as talent and that a Memorial Stadium could use a little more of it when the odds are stacked against the Bears.

For Cal fans, that’s the game within the game. In a world where the scoreboard doesn’t always tell the story, there’s something satisfying about confounding the odds. To cover is to endure and to prove that grit and belief can still outpace expectations.

After all, against all odds is where Berkeley has thrived: a good reminder to carry into Saturday.

Go Bears!