Bears Bureau: UC Davis Aggies
What's the market looking like after week 1?
Well well well, your California Golden Bears have made it 1/13th of the way towards the 2023 Rose Bowl. After a less than thrilling start, all three facets of the team started to click on all cylinders led by a bunch of youngsters and veterans who were all getting their first meaningful playing time in the blue and gold. But what stock should fans be buying, holding, or even selling after week 1 not only for your California Golden Bears but also the rest of the Pac 12? Well let’s dive on in!.
Where to Buy:
Jaydn Ott
Quite easily the breakout player of the game has to go to the true freshman Jaydn Ott. Subbing into an offense that was asleep at the wheel in the first half, he injected all sorts of life into it. His energy was different, his pace was different, and even his elusiveness was different, all in his first game at the division one level. After replacing Damien Moore, Ott recorded a statline of 17 carries for 104 yards (6.1 yards per carry) along with 2 receptions for 26 yards and his first career Cal touchdown. As I mentioned in my player preview of Ott here, he had to develop in the receiving game to gain more meaningful snaps and over the course of spring and fall he’s been doing that. And it all came to fruition last Saturday, where he injected life into Cal as a whole and changed the tide of the game for the better. Look for him to build on this grand opening act and buy up for the future.
The Wide Receivers
As mentioned in my positional preview about the wide receivers here, Justin Wilcox and Burl Toler III were betting on the raw talent that the recruiting classes of 2020 and 2021 brought to the table. With all of our starting receivers from last year departing they were betting on the flashes of raw athleticism and raw potential to get this group off the ground and boy did they deliver early. Jeremiah Hunter (6 rec 78yds 1 TD) and J Michael Sturdivant (4 rec 55 yds) got going quickly in the 2nd quarter, with Sturdivant taking back to back passes from Jack Plummer to move Cal down the field. This setup a nasty fake slant into a fade for Hunter’s first touchdown of the year. The receivers were getting open, and even tons of new faces like Tommy Christakos and Mason Mangum saw the field and got into the action. Not to mention Mavin Anderson also getting on the board late in the game for his first career touchdown! The receivers were all over the field today and expect to see more of the same from them this year except for possibly the Notre Dame game but we will cross that bridge when we get there.
The Secondary
After some less than thrilling cover three defense to open the game, the Cal secondary had its day turned around from several players. The first of which came from Daniel Scott, who had a momentum switching stop on 4th and 1 from the 10 yard line as the Aggies looked to pad their lead. This turned the tide of the game as a whole and fired up the secondary with people like Craig Woodson, Jeremiah Earby, and Lu Magia Hearns all making their presecne felt. Earby had an acrobatic interception in his first game, Woodson had an amazing pick six to open the second half, and Hearns had his side of the field locked down just as I expected. Outside of the opening sequence and some questionable tackling when Ulonzo Gilliam went 60 yards for a touchdown, the secondary did its job and did it well.
Where to hold
Offensive line
The biggest question mark of the season was undoubtedly the offensive line and after game one, it is still the biggest question mark. From my perspective, I wasn’t impressed with the line at any level. They weren’t getting push in the interior, Brayden Rohme split time with TJ Session during the game, and pass protection was consistently iffy throughout the game. This offensive line should be punishing a FCS defensive line, I don’t care if it was North Dakota State that we were playing. Jaydn Ott’s performance masked what was otherwise a sleepwalking performance from the guys in the trenches, something that needs to be cleaned up for UNLV and certainly Notre Dame (I am very much afraid). Running lanes were few and far between, leaving backs to create more than react and Plummer was scrambling a little more than I would have liked (imagine had he gotten sacked instead instead of scrambling well, the forums would never hear the end of it). However, it is week one, give these kids some time and they will develop. Hold your stock.
Damien Moore
I debated going back and forth on this one but I’m going to leave Damien Moore on here as someone you should monitor in terms of snap count as the next few weeks take place. Last year it was Christopher Brooks and Marcel Dancy getting the bulk of the work over the course of the second half of the season, after Damien Moore’s fumble at Washington. Moore burst on the scene as a freshman during the 2020 Big Game (I still very much want to forget this ever took place) and assumed the lead back role but has faced ball security issues as of late. In last years edition of the Big Game, he fumbled on his first carry and never saw the field again. Against UC Davis, he saw the opening carry then was barely heard from again as Jaydn Ott and even DeCarlos Brooks started taking snaps and carries for Cal. His stock is teetering, and it is imperative that he either takes back the starting role or just simply defers to a co lead back with Ott as the season progresses. This could be some volatile stock no matter which way you go, it won’t be for the faint of heart.
The Defensive Line
Losing Brett Johnson was always going to be a tough blow for Cal and everyone knew it, but hope did and still does remain for the potential of the Cal defensive line. From the likes of Ethan Saunders to Xavier Carlton, there were rumblings that Cal could still piece this together for the long haul, much like last season. Well if last Saturday was any indication, they’ve got some work to do to even get back to that 2021 status. Carlton had 1.5 sacks against the Aggies which was great don’t get me wrong, but it was a lot of feast or famine for the defensive line otherwise. Miles Hastings had way too much time throw, especially in the beginning and Ulonzo Gilliam had several large running lanes to attack. Not that I wasn’t impressed with some of the developments that occurred later on but I just felt like more could have been done, Brett Johnson or not. Look for the defensive line to be more amped up against UNLV and make the matchups personal against the Fighting Irish.
Where to Sell
Nowhere
Well what is buying and holding without some selling? Some people elect to sell immediately upon not seeing their return on investment but I am not one of those people. These are kids aged 18-23, they have loads of time to develop not only as players but also as people, after all attending THE University of California Berkeley isn’t a 4 year plan, it is a 40 year plan. You feel frustrated that a certain group didn’t get off the ground right away but that’s ok, trust the process. Wait a couple of weeks, see what happens, see where these kids develop and reevaluate. Nothing can be known or inferred after one game, just ask 2015 Washington State who fell flat on their face against FCS Portland State in their opening game only to end the season at 9-4 with a Sun Bowl win over Miami.
Quick Hits and Misses from around the league
Utah: Buy
While the Utes may have lost down in the swamp in some literal last second throwing, they went toe to toe if not outplayed a very much respected Florida team who were led by Anthony Richardson making plays all over the field. Their tackling wasn’t great and a crucial fumble on the goal line by Tavion Thomas is going to haunt them but they will be fine. The Utes are easily a top 2 team in the Pac 12 and should honestly streamroll most teams enroute to a Pac 12 Championship berth. Cam Rising will get better after a shaky start and Brant Kuithe will continue to make defenses look silly as the Pac 12’s version of Darren Waller.
Washington’s offense: Buy
Kalen DeBoer’s Huskies got off to a solid start defeating Kent State by a final score of 45-20. If you were familiar with DeBoer’s concepts at Fresno State, it is a mix of the run pass option and spread offense, with an emphasis on yards after the catch. Indiana transfer Michael Penix Jr went 26/39 for 345 yds and 4 TD’s and frankly it looked like a reenergized version of the Huskies. Washington’s offense as a whole hasn’t been the same since Chris Petersen left and DeBoer has these kids looking fresh and looking happy to be there. Health will be key for the Huskies since Penix Jr has had injury concerns over the course of his career, leaving the backup battle between Dylan Morris and Sam Huard as something to keep an eye on. I fully expect this offense to be in the upper half of the Pac 12 throughout the season, so stay tuned for when the Huskies come to town in late October.
Arizona: Buy
By far the team I was most impressed with were the Arizona Wildcats, who went into San Diego and upstaged San Diego State’s new home stadium debut in a dominating 38-20 victory. Arizona struggled mightily on offense last season but Washington State transfer Jayden De Laura has injected new life into this offense, looking a lot smarter as a whole in his fundamentals. He went 22/35 for 299 yds and 4 TD’s along with 1 INT in the victory over the Aztecs, a team always known for respectable defense. Look for the duo of De Laura and true freshman receiver Tetairoa McMillan to make tons of noise for years to come in the Pac 12, they are legit. Arizona won’t be the doormat of the conference this year and can certainly be in the upper echelon of the midpack if the cards fall their way.
Trent Bray: Hold
Some of you may be wondering who Trent Bray is. Well he is Jonathon Smith’s new defensive coordinator hire for the Oregon State Beavers. During Smith’s tenure, defense has been seen as the lacking point to bring them over the top and Bray’s hire was looked at as possibly one that could finally get them over that hump. Well his debut was an absolute win in my book, preparing a defense that forced Boise State into five turnovers and made them look like they had never played football before. They made the Broncos bench Hank Bachmeier and were in control on defense throughout the whole game, as opposed to last year where the running game dominated week in and week out. However, it is only week one and Bray’s stock needs to be evaluated down the line but for now, the Beavers may have found their guy for defensive coordinator.
Oregon: Hold
I still don’t even know what I witnessed from the Ducks against Georgia last Saturday and frankly I’d like to forget. That was bad. The transition to the Dan Lanning era obviously wasn’t going to be sunshine and roses 100% of the way but boy that didn’t inspire any confidence at any level, going against a Georgia defense that lost 9 starters to the NFL. I wouldn’t be shocked if Ty Thompson takes over the starting quarterback role later on the season because Bo Nix is certainly iffy. They just need to burn the film and get ready for Eastern Washington and BYU in the coming weeks. This can be some volatile stock.
Stanford’s Special Teams: Hold
Normally a mainstay of a David Shaw program, the special teams for Stanford against Colgate were subpar at best. The Raiders got their only touchdown of the game off a muffed punt that was returned for a touchdown and the Cardinal missed an extra point towards the end of the game (albeit it was from the backup kicker but still something to still take note of). Usually consistent, it remains to be seen if there are actual cracks in one of Stanford’s foundational pieces, but it is something to keep an eye on as Big Game week approaches, especially as it is in an area where Cal tends to get out matched.
That’s your market report for week 1! Who knows what week 2 will bring, I’m sure it will be tons of chaos.
FWIW Ott was named P12 freshman of the week
Oregon might be the big disappointment of the Pac 12