Bryan Harsin: Good idea? Bad idea?

A first look at Cal's rumored Offensive Coordinator candidate

Reliable reporting has linked Bryan Harsin to Cal’s open offensive coordinator position, and so far he’s the only candidate with actual reporting attached to it. So, at the risk of jumping the gun, I think it’s worth taking a look at what Bryan Harsin might bring to Berkeley if this reporting ends up coming true.

There are off-field reasons to wonder about Harsin’s candidacy, which are perhaps worthy of scrutiny if he does end up joining Cal’s staff. But for now, I’m going to purely focus on the football side of the equation.

So let’s take a look at how his offenses have performed, job by job:

Boise State Offensive Coordinator, 2006-2010

F+ Offense Rankings*:

2007: 21st in the nation
2008: 21st in the nation
2009: 5th in the nation
2010: 3rd in the nation

Note that F+ rankings only go back to 2007, so this leaves out 2006, which just so happens to be the year Boise St. entered national consciousness by knocking off Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.

This five year stretch is certainly the highlight of Bryan Harsin’s career. Boise State had been pretty good for a few years under Dirk Koetter and Dan Hawkins, but they reached a new level under Chris Petersen. And Harsin was the offensive coordinator and play caller, and gained immediate national acclaim for the absurd series of trick plays that won Boise State that famous Fiesta Bowl. But Boise’s success in those years goes well beyond a couple of trick plays - despite recruiting to a WAC team playing in Idaho, Boise built a legit top 10 offense. And you can take a glance at NFL draft records - Harsin and Boise did this without major NFL talent, as only a few guys had much impact at the next level.

Of course, Harsin was also the OC under Petersen, who was previously Boise’s OC before getting the promotion to head coach. Petersen has a sterling track record of strong offensive production everywhere he has coached, which raises the obvious question: how much of Boise’s success in this era can be attributed to Petersen vs. Harsin? On that note, it’s worth pointing out that Boise State’s F+ offensive rankings declined into the 40s a couple of years after Harsin’s departure despite the fact that Petersen was still the head coach.

Texas Offensive Coordinator, 2011-2012

F+ Offense Rankings:

2010: 77th in the nation
2011: 32nd in the nation
2012: 12th in the nation
2013: 45th in the nation

Here’s a pretty good sign: Harsin was brought in to be play-caller in a joint OC system with Major Applewhite to help fix a bad Texas offense, and the Longhorns did indeed improve substantially in each of his two years in Austin. Texas produced good-not-great offenses despite meh quarterbacks like Case McCoy, David Ash, and Garrett Gilbert, though perhaps the fact that Harsin was the QB coach doesn’t make that a point in his favor.

And it’s worth noting that as soon as Harsin left, Texas’ offense took a big step backward (in 2013, the year that Mack Brown finally got fired by Texas).

Arkansas State Head Coach, 2013

F+ Offense Rankings:

2013: 96th in the nation

I don’t even know WHAT to make of this year. Arkansas State had a wild few years here. In 2011 Arkansas State hired Hugh Freeze, who had a good year and was hired away by Ole Miss. They hired Gus Malzahn, who was hired away in one year by Auburn. They hired Bryan Harsin, who was hired away in one year by Boise State. Rough!

Harsin didn’t set the world on fire with the Red Wolves, but he was also the fourth head coach in four seasons, so who the hell knows what kind of continuity that program had. I don’t feel comfortable rendering any kind of judgement regarding the onfield results, and evidently Boise’s decision makers felt like this wasn’t relevant data either because they hired Harsin away to replace Chris Petersen despite Harsin’s unremarkable 7-5 record.

Boise State head coach, 2014-2020

F+ Offense Rankings:

2014: 28th in the nation
2015: 43rd in the nation
2016: 28th in the nation
2017: 44th in the nation
2018: 25th in the nation
2019: 40th in the nation
2020: 54th in the nation (in seven games in the COVID year)

Here’s where you can start to see what you want to see. If you’re inclined to defend Harsin, what you might see is a picture of solid G5 consistency. Sure, Boise isn’t hitting the highs of the best of the Petersen era, but the offense is ranging from average to good, and for a team that made the MWC title game in six of seven seasons. Harsin is dominating at the level that Boise State is competing at, even if they’re not seriously threatening the actual powers of college football the way they did for a few years in the late aughts.

On the other hand, you also might look at this as a coach who is taking over a small conference machine that has been annihilating WAC/MWC for 15 years under multiple head coaches and is merely meeting expectations. Sure, Harsin is still putting together solid offenses and competing for MWC titles, but he’s not elevating the program the way Petersen did.

Then again, one thing worth noting: Per F+ rankings, Cal’s best offense under Justin Wilcox came in 2023 when the Bears ranked 47th in the nation. Removing the stupid COVID season, that would mean that Harsin’s WORST offense at Boise State was still better ranked that the BEST offense under Justin Wilcox. It’s all relative!

Auburn Head Coach, 2021-2022

F+ Offense Rankings:

2019: 30th in the nation
2020: 53rd in the nation (COVID asterisk)
2021: 41st in the nation
2022: 52nd in the nation
2023: 66th in the nation
2024: 59th in the nation

I’m including the years prior to and after Harsin’s short tenure in Auburn to try to get a sense of how much Harsin’s failure at Auburn can be blamed on Harsin vs. general Auburn dysfunction. By the time Harsin arrived Auburn was a few years removed from their last truly good offense under Gus Malzahn. Meanwhile, Hugh Freeze hasn’t had any success fixing Auburn either despite more than a lot of NIL support. So his Harsin’s failure here really on him?

I might be willing to consider the argument except for the fact that Harsin inherited future Heisman finalist and current NFL starting quarterback Bo Nix and completely bungled his development and in-game performance.

Books could probably be written (I’m guessing there are a few in progress) about everything that went wrong during Harsin’s Auburn tenure, and a quick google search will expose you to plenty of opinions from Auburn fans as to what specifically THEY think Harsin did wrong.

Some of his mistakes are arguably not all that relevant when you’re evaluating his ability to be an offensive coordinator. For one thing, he’s probably a better fit out on the west coast under former colleague Justin Wilcox than he ever was in the deep south. For another, some of his apparent weaknesses at Auburn (recruiting, roster management) are arguably not as critical at the OC level.

Verdict

Harsin is a competent hire. Seven years of OC experience and a decade as a head coach, all at the FBS level, speaks for itself. With the possible exception of Jake Spavital, Harsin is probably the most qualified OC yet hired by Justin Wilcox in terms of pure transferrable experience.

However, the circumstances of Harsin’s spectacular flameout at Auburn has to give one pause. All of Cal’s eggs are now in the Fernando Mendoza basket, and any risk when you’re hiring and OC and QB coach is going to be magnified as a result.

My ultimate concern? Harsin is now more than a decade removed from the strongest parts of his resume. He hasn’t led a noteworthy offense since prior to the pandemic. Are his offensive ideas still sharp enough that he can be effective? Is he still sharp after spending time away from the game? And can he lead an effective offense when he isn’t coaching talent that is a level above most of his week-to-week competition, as he typically enjoyed when Boise State ran the MWC?

I get why Justin Wilcox would want to hire somebody who worked along side him during some very successful years in Boise, but this hire would be a risk for on-field reasons as much as off-field reasons.

*F+ rankings combine Bill Connelly’s SP+ with Brian Fremeau’s FEI ratings. Each metric attempts to adjust for tempo and strength of schedule and are a good general metric for football success.