Cal Baseball (8-3) and Softball (17-4) starting Pac-12 play
There are reasons to be both optimistic and pessimistic about the two Cal diamond sports
It is the beginning of Pac-12 play this weekend for Cal Baseball (at Arizona) and Softball (vs. No.2 UCLA).
While both Baseball and Softball will have non-conference midweek games in addition to another non-conference weekend (thanks to odd number of teams in each sport - no Colorado for Baseball; no Colorado, Washington State, and USC for Softball), now is the start of the fight for the Pac-12 crown. This will be the second year of the Pac-12 Baseball Tournament (in Scottsdale, Arizona) and the inaugural Pac-12 Softball Tournament (Tucson, Arizona). A change of format in baseball means that 9 (three groups of three teams) rather than 8 (double-elimination) of the 11 teams will make the Pac-12 Baseball tournament this year. For softball, all 9 teams will make the Pac-12 tournament (single elimination).
Both Cal Baseball and Cal Softball are looking to return to the NCAA postseason after narrowly missing out in 2022 despite winning records, thanks in part to how the arguably overrated SEC is taking up too many spots in both fields of 64. It is way too early to be looking at RPI (the top of the baseball RPI is laughable), but Cal Baseball is 59th currently. Cal Softball is in a better situation with a softball RPI of 29th and a similar standing in the coaches poll with some votes but outside the top-25.
Let’s take a closer look at the two programs thus far.
Cal Baseball (8-3)
Before last weekend, I had wrote (but it was unfinished/unpublished unlike this week where I am writing to calm my nerve while watching the World Baseball Classic) that while it might not yet be as dire as the “Spahn and Sain and Pray for Rain” situation for the 1940s Boston Braves, but Cal Baseball (then 6-1) just benefited from the “May, Pasqualotto/Sullivan, and Bougie and Pray for Rain” winning formula. With the rainy weather canceling the final 1.67 games of the weekend/Tuesday, questions about Cal Baseball’s possible lack of pitching depth was not answered as the Bears went a perfect 3-0 in their last home stand.
Cal Bears then took on some big name opponents in Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Mississippi State at the Frisco Classic last weekend in Texas. Tournaments like these are important exposures of the Cal talent to MLB scouts.
The big news coming out of the Frisco Classic last weekend was not so much the 1-2 record but the very bad-sounding injury to Cal ace, AKA Friday starter, Ian May (0.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP in a team-high 16 IP). May left his start after two scoreless inning.
Without any insider information, Ian May is certainly not ready to start the Pac-12 opener for the Cal Bears this Friday. Instead, head coach Mike Neu will use Andres Galan as an opener. A TBD for game 3 makes me think the Tucker Bougie (3.21 ERA, 1.07 WHIP in 14 IP), previous Sunday starter, might be the bulk person for Friday.
PROBABLE PITCHERS THIS WEEKEND
Game 1 - Friday, 5 PM PT: RHP Andres Galan vs. RHP TJ Nichols
Game 2 - Saturday, 12 PM PT: RHP Paulshawn Pasqualotto vs. LHP Brandon Zastrow
Game 3 - Sunday, 11 PM PT: TBD vs. RHP Aiden May
Fingers crossed that the Ian May situation was just one of precaution, although arm/elbow injuries are so prevalent for pitchers.
Even when healthy, Ian May as a soft-tossing lefty (fastball of 86-88 mph) with control probably does not have the ceiling of Paulshawn Pasqualotto (1.29 ERA, 1.14 WHIP in 7 IP) who is slowly being stretched out in his starts after recovering from an injury in the offseason.
Pasqualotto being stretched out would allow Connor Sullivan (2.38 ERA, 1.06 WHIP in 11.1 IP) to cover more of the rest of the weekend or be a weekend starter if Ian May does indeed miss an extended amount of time. However, the two guys that will really need to pick up some weekend innings might be true freshmen Austin Turkington (9.82 ERA, 2.45 WHIP in 3 IP) and Jack Kirrer (4.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP in 2 IP). These young Bears probably has more upside than graduate transfer Joe Williams (3.60 ERA, 2.00 WHIP in 5 IP), a versatile inning-eater who fools hitters more with a funky deliver than true stuff.
Despite the uncertainty about pitching going forward, what has been undeniable to Cal’s hot start has been the great pitching, particularly starting pitching. Through 11 games, Cal’s 3.60 staff ERA is ranks 33rd in the nation. Cal's starting pitchers boast an ERA of 1.35 (40 IP with just 25 hits and 6 earned runs). We shall see if the Golden Bears can maintain these numbers (and not from using openers in two out of three weekend games) against the tougher competition of Pac-12 play.
Despite the winning record, Cal really has not hit better than their opponents so far. Cal is only slashing 0.233/0.344/0.419 as a team.
Cal does have great production from the top of the lineup from two sophomores. Catcher Caleb Lomavita (0.340/0.415/0.596, 3 HR, 10 RBI) gets on base ahead of centerfielder Rodney Green Jr. (0.341/0.431/0.659, 4 HR, 8 RBI). Both guys, already lineup regulars as freshmen last year, have taken a leap forward so far.
Green Jr., who hit 6 homers last year, already got 4 longballs to lead the Bears.
Joining Rodney Green Jr. on the all Frisco Classic team last weekend was 1st baseman Peyton Schulze. The sophomore transfer from Long Beach State got a huge 7 RBI game in Cal’s rout of Ohio State. Schulze (0.205/0.286/0.341) and two-way player Tucker Bougie (0.148/0.343/0.148) are still waiting to get going offensively in the middle of the Cal lineup.
It may not be sustainable but the Bears have got timely dingers from the rest of the lineup. Sophomore shortstop Carson Crawford had the key grand slam in the win at then No.2 Stanford. Graduate student Dom Souto ambushed the Cal Poly pitcher for the go-ahead homer late in another game.
After a slow start, graduate transfer and former Ivy Player of the Year at Dartmouth, outfielder Kade Kretzschmar has started to hit, with a hit in 6 of the last 7 games.
At the Frisco Classic, Cal Baseball got a huge 16-1 (7-inning) win over Ohio State sandwiched by two frustrating 4-run losses to Oklahoma and Mississippi State, by 5-9 and 4-8 scores, respectively. Cal could not hold on to an early lead after Ian May’s early departure in the Friday game. Mississippi State got 5-runs in the last three innings to take the Sunday game. Cal did rebound with a midweek 8-6 win over Villanova on Tuesday.
Golden Bears will need more reliable outings from top lefty Chris Stamos and potential closer Christian Becerra going forward.
Arizona (9-3) has been hitting well in 2023 so far. The Wildcats are led by junior outfielder Chase Davis, named to the Golden Spikes preseason watch list. Davis is slashing 0.356/0.463/0.800 with a Pac-12 best 6 homers so far. Senior Nik McClaughry (0.404/0.533/0.553) is leading the Pac in batting average right now. Mac Bingham (0.327/0.393/0.692) is leading the Pac in RBI with 18. The Wildcats team ERA of 4.34 with a WHIP 1.41 does reflect how Arizona has gotten into a few slugfests.
For Cal to make the postseason, the Bears will likely need to win about half of their Pac-12 contests. The newish Pac-12 Baseball Tournament does give the team more late opportunities for quality wins, but Bears need to follow the rough formula of winning 1 on the road and 2 out of 3 at home in every series.
Cal Softball (17-4)
Traditionally, the bar for getting back to the NCAA tournament is a bit lower for Cal Softball. Softball often just needs to win about a third of their conference games to make the postseason. Weather permitting, Cal will face an enormous test this weekend in No.2 UCLA (23-1). UCLA has played a more challenging non-conference than Cal with their lone loss a 14-0 (5-inning) contest to the 2x defending NCAA champion in Oklahoma. A mere single win would be a great result.
WEEKEND LINEUP
Teams: Cal (17-4) vs. No. 2 UCLA (23-1)
Location: Levine-Fricke Field: Berkeley, California
First pitch: Friday: 2 p.m. | Saturday: 1 p.m. | Sunday: noon
Cal has hit well in 2023, but arguably has not faced the toughest competition. Bears have slug a robust 0.321/0.412/0.565 as a team with 32 homers. They achieved this despite missing time from two sluggers in Tatum Anzaldo and two-way star Sona Halajian, but both are back. Taking advantage of her extra at bats, Sophie Medellin is second on the team with 6 homers behind the expected top hitter Makena Smith who got 7 homers.
One has got to question how effective the pitching staff will fare against the tough hitters of the Pac-12. Golden Bears have got decent results from Haylei Archer (1.22 ERA, 1.13 WHIP in 46 IP), Annabel Teperson (2.78 ERA, 1.45 WHIP in 27.2 IP), and Anna Reimers (3.26 ERA, 1.19 WHIP in 38.2 IP) but all of them do not miss bats that much, particularly Teperson who got only 8 K’s in her 27.2 innings.
Sona Halajian, Cal’s ace from the previous season, had to spend two weekends in the hospital according to her TikTok. She is back to start Cal’s most recent midweek game at UC Davis. In her limited time in the circle this non-conference season, Halajian has been hit hard (7 homers allowed in 19.2 IP) despite getting the strikeouts (25 K). Cal will need their two-way star to figure things out to fulfill the team’s potential.
Last year, Cal had a staff ERA of 4.48 but just 5.59 in Pac-12 play en route to a 8-16 conference record. With the same staff back with more experience, maybe head coach Chelsea Spencer’s squad will fare better.
Otherwise, Golden Bears might have to slug their way back to the NCAA tournament in 2023. They just might have the bats to do that.
ROLL ON YOU BEARS!
So what I'm understanding from both teams is that both dudes and chicks dig the long ball.