Cal Basketball 2/3 Check-In: Critical wins over Stanford power late season optimism

Rivalry wins over the weekend showcase two improving teams as March nears

Photos via @calmbball and @calwbball twitter

The context is almost irrelevant - few things on earth feel better than beating Stanford. For both the Cal men and the Cal women, cathartic weekend wins over the Cardinal highlight how each team has improved recently, while offering a tangible reward for that improvement. Thomas (for the men) and Don (for the women) have the nitty-gritty for those individual games, and you should check them out if you haven’t already.

Instead, I wanted to talk a little bit about what those wins mean, within the context of the season:

Cal MBB Update: Defense and shooting propel Cal onto the tournament bubble

Two games ago, Cal’s season felt very fragile. The Bears were 1-5 to start ACC play, and their only win was . . . well, I don’t want to call it lucky exactly, but relying on one player scoring 7 points in 11 seconds didn’t feel like the most sustainable way to win basketball games.

But then the Bears picked themselves up off the ground, blitzed North Carolina for a Quad 1 win, then came back against Stanford for another Quad 1 win, and suddenly they’re 3-4 in the conference despite arguably the most difficult conference schedule any ACC team has faced to date*.

The result? The Bears are now squarely on the bubble. Of the 28 bracket projections that were updated on the Bracket Matrix after Cal’s win over Stanford (as of Sunday night), nine have Cal in the field.

What has shifted for the Bears? Most of the improvement has come on the defensive end. Over the last three games, here is what Cal has produced defensively:

• Duke: 1.1 points/possession (lowest offensive efficiency since Dec. 6 vs. #4 Michigan State, 3rd worst of the season).

• UNC: 1.1 points/possession (lowest off. efficiency since Dec. 2 vs. #27 Kentucky, 4th worst of the season).

• Stanford: .93 points/possession (4th worst off. efficiency of the season).

In short, over the last few weeks Cal has been playing like one of the better defenses in the conference.

Is it sustainable? Some of Cal’s defensive success has come because opponents have been ice cold from three. If that’s a function of Cal’s defense, and Cal is forcing their opponents into taking a lot of low value 3s, then maybe there’s something going on. We’ll ultimately need more data.

I have liked what I’ve seen lately from Cal’s high screen defense. Cal has had their bigs hedging aggressively all year to mixed success, with some occasional help rotation errors. Over the last few games, Cal’s rotations have been much sharper and more successful, and to my eyes opponents have had to settle for weaker shots.

The other shift? Cal started making threes again. John Camden woke up against Duke and is 12 for his last 21 after talking openly about the work he did to break out of his slump. His shooting is critical for Cal’s offense, and he was the primary offensive driver for Cal’s back-to-back wins.

How many more wins will be necessary to make the tournament? Well, here’s what’s left on the schedule, with Cal’s chances of winning each game per Kenpom:

Cal’s projected record the rest of the way is 6-5, and the schedule eases up significantly down the stretch.

If the Bears avoid any bad losses (projected Quad 3 games vs. G. Tech x2, BC, Pitt) and manages to go 3-4 or better in the rest of their games, that’s probably enough to enter the ACC tournament firmly in the conversation for an invite.

Getting at least a road split in Florida this week would be a great first step, but it’ll be tough. Florida State has played almost everybody tough in ACC play, and Miami is right alongside Cal on the bubble.

*Per Kenpom, Cal’s conference schedule has included the #1 (Duke), #2 (UVA), #3 (L’ville), and #5 (UNC) teams in the ACC.

Cal WBB update: Steady improvement finally rewarded with a win

The Torvik tempo-free rating system has a nifty chart that tracks team performance over time:

Game Score is basically a measurement of collective team efficiency relative to opponent quality. Easily beating a really good team probably gets you a perfect game score of 100. Struggling against a bad team will get you a mediocre or worse game score.

What you can see is that the Bears were very up-and-down during the bulk of their non-conference schedule, but have shown a clear upward trajectory that began roughly around the time ACC play opened against Stanford (the first red square in the patch I circled in blue).

That five game stretch is one of the most soul-crushingly harsh sequences I’ve seen a team go through. The Bears played five Quad 1 games in a three week span, were competitive in every game, and came out without any wins. Then, after getting a win against hapless Wake Forest, the Bears suffered another gut punch, losing a wild 3 OT game on the road to Syracuse.

Perhaps a weaker time might’ve accepted any of multiple opportunities to mentally check out of the season, but the Bears bounced back with a routine road win over also-hapless BC, then finally notched a meaningful win over Stanford, who is currently projected into the tournament.

The women are not currently on the NCAA tournament bubble despite an efficiency ranking (48) and NET ranking (57) that is roughly on par with that of the men. That’s because the Cal women are 0-7 in Quad 1 games, and have an unfortunate Quad 3 loss to Auburn. Life on (or near) the bubble means that winning your close games takes on outsized importance, and narrow losses to Missouri, USC, Duke, and Syracuse means that the NCAA tournament is not currently a realistic outcome.

If Cal were to start pulling more upsets (say, against Notre Dame on Thursday) they could maybe put themselves on the fringes of the bubble. But with only 1-2 more Quad 1 opportunities left on the regular season schedule, there may just not be enough time left to build a resume barring a run at the ACC tournament.

But in a mild rebuilding year, I’m much more focused on process over results, and the process has been encouraging. Lulu Twidale has found new success in more of a playmaker role, averaging 5.6 assists/game since the new year began, and is finishing at the rim better than at any point in her three year career. Gisella Maul has blossomed into an efficient secondary scorer and defensive rebounder. Taylor Barnes continues to show no sign of hitting the freshman wall even as the schedule got much tougher. Charmin Smith has found a solid post rotation with Sakima Walker and Naya Ojukwu. And all this without Puff Morris, who remains out with an injury!

In a season that started with many questions and few clear answers, Cal has built an intriguing foundation for the future, and they’re getting enough results on the court now to keep your attention.