Cal Football 2025 Analysis: Luck Be a Bear Tonight
Time for a midseason check in
Lefty Gomez may have been talking about baseball when he said, “I’d rather be lucky than good,” but the same may well apply to Cal football. Cal has amassed a pair of lucky, if ugly wins. Still at the end of the day, luck counts just the same on the scoreboard.
Halfway through the 2025 season, Cal finds itself in a familiar position—a solid start with the potential to push higher in conference standings or slip back depending on how the next two weeks unfold. What the Bears do next will determine whether Cal can build momentum heading into the backend of the season.
Ahead of tonight’s game against Virginia Tech, it’s worth checking in to see how the Bears stack up against other teams.
Defensive Performance
Let’s start with Cal’s defense. Comparing pass vs run defense, Cal sits solidly in the middle of the pack—with slightly stronger performance against the pass. There’s no denying the Bears have been lackluster at times, but considering they lost two key defensive starters for the season, they are holding their own.
Offensive Performance
If the defense has steadied, the offense is still searching for its rhythm. The running game has struggled to find traction. Yet the passing game has shown flashes of creativity.
Cal’s explosiveness mix suggests an offense capable of making big plays, but inconsistent in sustaining drives. If the Bears can establish even a modestly effective run game, the offense could finally open up and take some pressure off of Cal’s defense.
Offensive/Defensive Balance
The final two plots—success rate and opponent-adjusted EPA/play—show how Cal’s offensive-defensive balance compares with other teams. In both, Cal is almost squarely in the middle of the pack: modestly above average on defense and slightly less than average on offense.
The Bears will need to have both sides of the ball be in sync in order to come away with the win tonight. But if the Bears can capitalize on defensive skill and lucky stops—and turn them into offense opportunities with sharper execution and a few timely explosive plays—it may be just enough to keep stacking wins.
Cal doesn’t have to be perfect. The Bears just need to keep finding a way.
Go Bears!