Men’s Basketball: Cal Cruises to Season Sweep of Stanford

In a win for the haters, the Bears kick Stanford while they're down to maintain NCAA hopes

photo credit: Don Collier

This website is, of course, about the California Golden Bears. But today, after a rivalry win over Stanford, I feel like being a hater. So let’s talk about Stanford.

The Cardinal got off to a pretty good start this year. Like Cal, they did a solid job against a pretty weak non-conference schedule, then pulled a couple upsets in early ACC play. But I think the rest of the conference has figured them out:

The numbers say that Stanford is an average enough team. They’re 74th in Kenpom after losing to Cal, and while this game probably eliminates any chance that they’ll get at-large consideration, they’ve been on the fringes of bubble talk for most of the year. And yet, after watching them play Cal twice, I can’t help but come away thinking that they’re entirely fraudulent.

Stanford, as best I can tell, has three sources of offense. Their primary source is Ebuka Okorie, an undersized but genuinely gifted freshman scorer and creator who can shoot from everywhere and is lightning quick. Their secondary sources are Benny Gealer 3s and mostly inefficient post-ups from AJ Rohosy and Aiden Cammann.

And really, that’s kinda it. It’s Okorie and a bunch of role players, and then after that it’s ????. Stanford’s 5th-10th rotation players combined for 1-13 shooting and 3 turnovers. They have no back-up option.

If Okorie is off (like he was when he shot a hilarious 1-16 against Cal at Maples in late January) then Stanford is absolutely screwed. If Okorie is merely average, like he was against Cal on Saturday, then Stanford is deeply behind the eight ball, and will lose unless they play lights out defense or have a massive shot volume advantage. Just look at Okorie’s Kenpom game log and see if you can find any correlation between Okorie’s performances and Stanford’s wins/losses:

Basically Stanford needs Okorie to go for 30 or they’re gonna lose. He should transfer somewhere else, where his talent won’t be wasted.

Cal’s ball screen defense frequently blitzed Okorie with double teams from Cal’s center, and Okorie was unable to turn the corner and often forced to give the ball up. Okorie’s usual usage percentage is 29%, but he was at just 22% against Cal on 6-14 shooting with just 3 free throw attempts. This wasn’t some kind of defensive masterstroke from Mark Madsen. Rather, it’s Cal’s base defense. But it was enough to keep Okorie from going off for 30 points.

And so on a night when Cal’s offense and shooting wasn’t quite up to the usual standard, the Bears still cruised to an early double digit lead, and then sat on that lead the rest of the way. I know the end got a little squirrelly, but let’s be real - this was never in serious doubt. It ended up being one of Cal’s easiest ACC wins of the season:

And I cannot tell you how happy it makes me feel, knowing that Cal put something like a C effort into this game and still walked away with an easy win and a season sweep over their rivals, while virtually ending Stanford’s hopes for an NCAA spot in the process.

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OK, I should actually talk a little bit about Cal. The Bears played effective defense against a team that is just very, very limited offensively, and on another night they might’ve won by 20. They didn’t in part because they didn’t shoot as well as they are capable of, and because they continue to struggle to finish contested shots:

9-26 from three is bang on average. 5/19 on longer 2 point jumpers isn’t very good, nor is 8/18 at the rim. When Cal DOES get something at the basket, it’s often an effective back-door cut because an opponent overplays the 3 point threat. But too much of Cal’s offense is a guard trying to create one-on-one, and settling for a contested jumper/fadeaway. Cal just isn’t hitting those kinds of shots enough to justify their frequency within the offense.

Really, this game was an extended reminder of how badly this team needs Lee Dort back. Cal’s center went through warm-ups and was a gametime decision, and ultimately wasn’t able to go. That might be just as well since Cal was able to win without him, but Cal will need him against better opposition, like SMU on Wednesday night in a must-win game (they all are from here on out).

Cal needs Dort as an interior finisher. Cal needs Dort as a screener. Cal needs Dort’s rim protection and interior defense. He’s not some sort of miracle cure-all, but he brings a bunch of skillsets that Cal is clearly lacking that will better balance the Bears on both ends.

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Next up is SMU, in a game that could be a barn-burner. SMU is 2nd in the ACC in offensive efficiency, behind only (duh) Duke. Unlike Duke, they don’t play very good defense, and allow opponents to get off a lot of 3s. This is a game that could get very pointsy.

Meanwhile, it was a decent day for Cal’s NCAA chances. Fellow bubble teams Missouri, USC, San Diego St., and West Virginia took losses. But Cal is still pretty clearly on the outside looking in, and a home win over Stanford doesn’t really change much. A borderline quad 1 win over SMU, however, could change things. If Cal can close out the home season with a sweep, then NCAA dreams are back on.

And while I’m as desperate for March basketball as the rest, now is a good time to sit back and appreciate what this team has accomplished. Cal’s first over .500 season since 2017. One more win means Cal’s first 20 win season since that year as well. Cal’s first season sweep over Stanford since (shockingly), the 2010 Pac-10 championship squad.

I submit that there is no better time to revel in joy and accomplishment than after a win over Stanford.