Cal Football 2025 Preview: Offensive Line

Hopefully less offensive than last year's

Credit: Rob Hwang

Whomever said that numbers never lie never watched the 2024 Cal offensive line.

Cal’s offensive line in 2024 was atrocious in a way that can’t be adequately described by numbers alone. Sure we tied for the most sacks allowed with Oklahoma with 50, and sure it was the national bottom feeder when allowing 27 sacks against teams without a winning record, and yes we did give up the 3^rd most TFLs per game right behind Southern Mississippi and Stanford.

And with these gruesome stats in mind, we just know it felt so much worse to watch.

There was no push, no pull, no creativity of the run game, the knowledge that the QB will always be under siege, that the run game will sometimes average runs equivalent of QB sneaks. Midway through the season it became inevitable that the run game was a non-starter and yet we still ran the ball 211 times on 1^st down against 184 passing attempts.

Out went OC/OL Mike Bloesch who apparently has not picked up a new football gig, which fair play I’d do it too if the result of my work was the 64^th offense in Adjusted EPA per play and 110^th in rushing EPA per Play.

It was just bad.

In came OC Bryan Harsin and the rising star OL Coach Famika Anae (whose New Mexico squad had the nation’s leading EPA per rush, though at relied heavily on the QB run game). With them came a cavalcade of OL transfers (2 tackle type in Bell and Owens, and 3 interior linemen (Harley, Robinson, and Ruffins). With the returning production in Morrow, Swinney, and Vatikani what we’re hoping for isn’t a great or even a good OL, it is an offensive line where the average fan isn’t able to name which OL just blew the block on a 2^nd and 9 to give up QB hurry.

Anonymity is preferable to ignominy.

Thinking at how OC Harsin will like to play the game we have to go back to his time at Auburn. His last full year at Auburn had the Tigers at the #21 overall offense per OFEI with the relatively low values of each component offset by the 2^nd hardest schedule faced.

One statistic worth looking at re: offensive line production, a good predictor of offensive play is the “line yards” statistic: rushing yards that can be apportioned to the offensive line. It estimates each set of rushing yards gained per play to the OL:

• 120% of the TFLs are apportioned to the OL to penalize poor play,

• 100% of rushes between 0-4,

• 50% of rushes between 5-10 yards,

• 0% of rushes over 11 yards.

So a rush of 20 yards would give 4 (first 4 yards) + 5 (half of 10) + 0 (of the yards after 10) = 9 to the OL and 11 to the ball carrier.

We can see here that holding all things constant the Harsin offenses (assuming away 2020) roughly fall between the poor play of the 2024 Cal OL and the very good OL play of the 2023 season. Looking deeper into the data for Cal, it can be attributed to Benedict Arnold Ott’s play and Isiah Ifanse providing very good play during his limited snaps.

Coach Famika Anae is the pivotal hire of the Harsin offensive regime.

His OL at New Mexico allowed no sacks, only 34 combined pressures in 2024 as a unit:

How much is the level of competition? How much was it having Devon Dampier who was a 1000-yard rushing threat at the QB position scrambling for 287 yards? How much was it due to coaching? For Cal I hope it is the last point.

What does this mean? We can expect a CFB average run blocking unit, the OL ought to give us at least 3 yards of space for the RB to make hay. But even then we cannot divine more than “well the scheme shouldn’t be Oski-poop” from this.

Not a lot because we have to look at the lads who will be doing the blocking.

And well, there isn’t a lot of information about them despite the number of snaps they have had. Why? Because offensive lines require chemistry to play with each other, individual players may have experience and individual skill but as a weak link system it just takes one lad to assume the wrong thing on a stunt or read the sift block wrong to cause an issue in the passing or running game.

Coaching Points

I found the 2011 Texas playbook, this is the most basic of plays: inside zone, with each of the OL with a defined role in the play. The playside COG and TIM blocks making way, but the big thing is the backside blocks since they will be on an island. If communication fails at any of the steps, if the playside guard of the zone peels away thinking he needs to attack the SAM backer, or the center doesn’t chip help it’d basically be a dead play.

Compare it to this blocking scheme on an inside zone with a RPO bubble attached on the backside.

Note how here the COG block has the Center helping the Guard with the MIKE backer being a secondary block. While the backside block is a double on the 3 tech keeping the backside DE unblocked. In this play the QB reads the backside DE to keep and toss to the slot receiver for a quick screen, but this all won’t matter if the OL fails to execute their double blocks across the board.

When it comes to pass protection this is the level of complexity the OL will have to deal with day to day:

Each of these require the OL to be on the same page, passing off the stunt, or thinking when not to pass of the stunt, each of these require coordination and physical ability to engage from different angles. Over and over and over and over again. If the opposing defense knows that, for example, the LG and LT (where we project new players) could struggle passing the B/N stunt, then it will become a sticking point whenever we’d be on passing downs.

Position Projections

The OL will likely bring in all but 2 returning starters, and 3 transfer portal additions to the starting 5. Please note that due to a small number of open practices available for the WFC staff the rotation and projected starting positions are at best a guess.

• LT: LaJuan Owens OR Nick Morrow OR Leon Bell

• LG: Tyson Ruffins / Jordan Moko

• C: Daveion Harley OR Bastian Swinney

• RG: Sioape Vatikani / Jordan Moko OR Tyson Ruffins

• RT: Leon Bell OR Braden Miller OR Frederick Williams III

Going by position

Left Tackle: Proved Experience Prevails, I hope

Coming via the portal we have Owens who played a ton of snaps at LT for coach Anae, only allowed 6 pressures in 2024, compared to Morrow’s 24. Granted it was a lower level of competition, but his familiarity with the scheme can give him a leg up. Something worth noting is that he allowed no pressures against Auburn for a PFF grade of 75.5 vs Morrow who allowed 3 pressures for a pass blocking grade of 0.0

On the flipside, we have a returning project LT in Nick Morrow whose transition from TE was less Terron Armstead and more Ben Coleman who moved from LG to LT for Cal in 2022. The hope is that he can build on his experience at LT with learning how to move his larger body as a LT. Furthermore, we can hope that the S&C Novak program can yield strength and agility gains to the high ceiling-low floor player.

Bell could also play a role in the position but I think he can be a better fit at the RT spot due to his experience at the position.

Left Guard: Experienced but Unproven, just like new hires

Here lies the rub, both Moko and Ruffins have G5 experience at LG. Ruffins had fewer allowed pressures and a higher PFF run blocking grade on more snaps and against a higher quality of opposition.

Ruffins PFF:

Moko PFF:

Center: Potential Point of Failure, just like my temper when watching football

Breaking in a new QB requires an experienced center in the scheme and with the QB. Scheme isn’t a problem because it’s a new scheme for everyone, the QB also doesn’t play a factor because… well we have that new too. Hence this is a close battle between Bastian Swinney who has had experience at center for a P4 team, and Harley who has been a C for triple the snaps at the position at a lower level of competition. Both of whom have had poor PFF grading when manning the position.

Right Guard: Vatican gets a Chicago Pope, Cal returns a Vatikani Guard

Vatikani will likely return to playing his go to position since 2022 as an RG. With the transfer and freshman addition either not experienced at the position (Moko / Ruffins and Hasenhuetl) we can pencil in Vatikani at the position. He has the requisite physical attributes to play the position at a high level, the issue is his technical and mental game where he has had issues in run blocking and pass blocking.

Right Tackle: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ - this is how I feel about the position

Another free spot on the bingo board with some choices to make. Do we take in Bell (who had some snaps at RT before being benched at Mississippi State after week 2), or Frederick Williams III who played in relief during for the old regime, or Braden Miller an untested MSU transfer (Go Spartans since I have made some Spartan friends over the year) with a good lineage via his brother who played LT for Cal in 2023 (Braden Miller).

The unknown here isn’t just due to the lack of returning experience but also since all 3 of them either have the experience in the position, or have the higher upside of their recruiting rankings.

Conclusion

The offensive line is the biggest predictor of how high the floor is for an offense. For us the floor in 2024 was in the basement of a nuclear shelter, underneath a mountain, and beneath Atlas’ body carrying the skies.

For 2025 we hope that the literally incalculable improvement in coaching plus an improvement in the quality of players on the OL will lead to forgettable mediocrity. That’s what I am hoping for, but considering the considerable movement on the OL we will go through some very rough patches especially in the aspects of the game that require coordination such as defending stunts, simulated pressures, and fire-zone concepts where the OL’s ability to communicate and work together will be stressed the most.