Yes, JKS has had a very solid start to his college career and he's fun to watch. For me though, what's more important, and I think much more impactful to Cal overall, are the program changes that Cal has made. A new Chancellor and bringing in Ron Rivera and relatedly the upgrades that they made to the offensive coaching staff (TWO former FBS successful head coaches Harsin and Rolovich on offense!). And the changes they've made to accountability, the game day experience ,and community outreach have been tremendous. All that to say while I hope JKS stays, it's more important that Cal continue to build back up the program and finally have the institutional support they've lacked for so long. If they can do that, everything else will fall into place.
Those are good points. It gives us more confidence that the success we have seen so far are likely to continue. Also it gives us hope that even if there may be some bad games in future, the team is heading in the right direction.
So I think the takeaway for me is that our collective eyes haven’t been deceiving us. We passed more than ran, but our runs have been about the same success whereas our passes have been much more successful than last year. Once/if we get our running to become more of a threat - which I think will need to be because defenses will need to protect against passes, we might become even better than what weve seen so far from this team.
This reminds me of how you can make data tell very different stories. I appreciate the effort at analysis through numbers. However, it seems to me that there are meaningful things not measured. The % of run vs. pass, is pretty straightforward, and yet doesn't speak to the types of runs or types of passes. Then we get to the ypc and other more granular things, and while useful, it isn't really apples to apples as you point out as there are so many other influencing variables like the QB and line play. If we try to look at only PPG, while useful, it doesn't speak to the play of the defense and such. Dykes could score 50 a game and lose half of them. I guess what I'm saying is that it's really super complicated! I keep posting about the chaos factor in football, and I stand by it. It's not that it is unknowable or not reflected by measurable things, but it's way too complex to understand easily. And yet, in the end, we all agree the Wins and Losses are the only measure of ultimate value.
If you're looking for even more complexity, you can dive into the biochemistry going inside the players.
Hey, why not?
So this past summer, looking at athletics other than football, several young middle distance runners burst onto the scene, or suddenly got a lot better. Cooper Lutkenhuas, Niels Laros, even Grant Fisher. The scuttlebutt was that they'd found a legal medicinal way to counteract lactic acid buildup. Wow, what a great idea, why didn't we think of that before? But then I read that it isn't lactic acid that makes your muscle sore and underperform, it's something else. Hydrogen ions perhaps, so acid, but not lactic acid. So, neutralizing the acidity in the muscles still may be a good thing. With what? Beta alanine or even sodium bicarbonate area said to work. Will this work in football players? It should. Are they already doing this? I don't know, does anyone else?
Great post, Edrick! "....receivers’ ability to hold onto throws from a lefty QB."
Are dropped passes a result of receiving ball with rotation coming from opposite direction of a righty? I would speculate yes. These guys have received tens of thousands of passes in their life and I'd think the anticipation of rotation is ingrained in muscle memory but I don't really know.
I think you're right. The one major difference so far is the big improvement in the O line. Yes we have a super freshmen QB but without this O line he would have been under so much more pressure which would have been poor outcomes
When Jaron decommitted and signed with Oregon, I was so bummed but treated it as just another missed HS recruit. I didn't expect him to be such a game changer. He is once in a generation talent. Our offense is going to be much better than last year.
Interesting data, thank you Edrick. We passed more in the Minnesota game by coaches' plan because Minnesota is tough against the run and we have a great QB and an improved OL that can handle the pass rush. Am thinking that is just plain darn good game preparation and play calling compared to last year. I bet we see more run plays against San Diego. Looking forward to the game!
This is great. I like the data analysis. Is there a version 2 coming? I'm curious to see other stats such as sacks/hurries & dropped passes v completions.
Since you have the data (great article and fun to read), have the TE's been getting more targets and receptions than last year? It seems to me that the TE's are more involved in the game planning. Can your data provide some insight to my perception?? I would love to know if we have targeted the TE's more this year in the comparative games last year? Thanks.
First, I would thank Harsin for including the TE's in our arsenal of weapons. The middle of the field would FINALLY be an area we could attack and excel (much like various opponents have done to us over the years). On third downs an added threat of a TE will stress the defense. Nothing but good comes from having a solid TE weapon(s) (by committee or 1 standout). And it would lead to AWESOME recruiting (HS) or portal candidates.
The biggest takeaway for me here is that this is an early season, limited data set so far...all green lights, but I'll be fascinated to see how these stats and comparisons play out over the year...Thanks Edrick!
Yes, JKS has had a very solid start to his college career and he's fun to watch. For me though, what's more important, and I think much more impactful to Cal overall, are the program changes that Cal has made. A new Chancellor and bringing in Ron Rivera and relatedly the upgrades that they made to the offensive coaching staff (TWO former FBS successful head coaches Harsin and Rolovich on offense!). And the changes they've made to accountability, the game day experience ,and community outreach have been tremendous. All that to say while I hope JKS stays, it's more important that Cal continue to build back up the program and finally have the institutional support they've lacked for so long. If they can do that, everything else will fall into place.
Those are good points. It gives us more confidence that the success we have seen so far are likely to continue. Also it gives us hope that even if there may be some bad games in future, the team is heading in the right direction.
So I think the takeaway for me is that our collective eyes haven’t been deceiving us. We passed more than ran, but our runs have been about the same success whereas our passes have been much more successful than last year. Once/if we get our running to become more of a threat - which I think will need to be because defenses will need to protect against passes, we might become even better than what weve seen so far from this team.
This reminds me of how you can make data tell very different stories. I appreciate the effort at analysis through numbers. However, it seems to me that there are meaningful things not measured. The % of run vs. pass, is pretty straightforward, and yet doesn't speak to the types of runs or types of passes. Then we get to the ypc and other more granular things, and while useful, it isn't really apples to apples as you point out as there are so many other influencing variables like the QB and line play. If we try to look at only PPG, while useful, it doesn't speak to the play of the defense and such. Dykes could score 50 a game and lose half of them. I guess what I'm saying is that it's really super complicated! I keep posting about the chaos factor in football, and I stand by it. It's not that it is unknowable or not reflected by measurable things, but it's way too complex to understand easily. And yet, in the end, we all agree the Wins and Losses are the only measure of ultimate value.
If you're looking for even more complexity, you can dive into the biochemistry going inside the players.
Hey, why not?
So this past summer, looking at athletics other than football, several young middle distance runners burst onto the scene, or suddenly got a lot better. Cooper Lutkenhuas, Niels Laros, even Grant Fisher. The scuttlebutt was that they'd found a legal medicinal way to counteract lactic acid buildup. Wow, what a great idea, why didn't we think of that before? But then I read that it isn't lactic acid that makes your muscle sore and underperform, it's something else. Hydrogen ions perhaps, so acid, but not lactic acid. So, neutralizing the acidity in the muscles still may be a good thing. With what? Beta alanine or even sodium bicarbonate area said to work. Will this work in football players? It should. Are they already doing this? I don't know, does anyone else?
I'm sure the Integrative Biology department is on it. (I was VERY bad at research but did do it in exercise physiology.)
Brave New World, for sure.
Great post, Edrick! "....receivers’ ability to hold onto throws from a lefty QB."
Are dropped passes a result of receiving ball with rotation coming from opposite direction of a righty? I would speculate yes. These guys have received tens of thousands of passes in their life and I'd think the anticipation of rotation is ingrained in muscle memory but I don't really know.
I think you're right. The one major difference so far is the big improvement in the O line. Yes we have a super freshmen QB but without this O line he would have been under so much more pressure which would have been poor outcomes
The nation is starting to notice our QB.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-qb-power-rankings-texas-a-ms-marcel-reed-georgia-techs-haynes-king-surge-in-top-50/
When Jaron decommitted and signed with Oregon, I was so bummed but treated it as just another missed HS recruit. I didn't expect him to be such a game changer. He is once in a generation talent. Our offense is going to be much better than last year.
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/why-cal-qb-jaron-keawe-sagapolutele-college-football-world-excited-golden-bears
Interesting data, thank you Edrick. We passed more in the Minnesota game by coaches' plan because Minnesota is tough against the run and we have a great QB and an improved OL that can handle the pass rush. Am thinking that is just plain darn good game preparation and play calling compared to last year. I bet we see more run plays against San Diego. Looking forward to the game!
This is great. I like the data analysis. Is there a version 2 coming? I'm curious to see other stats such as sacks/hurries & dropped passes v completions.
Since you have the data (great article and fun to read), have the TE's been getting more targets and receptions than last year? It seems to me that the TE's are more involved in the game planning. Can your data provide some insight to my perception?? I would love to know if we have targeted the TE's more this year in the comparative games last year? Thanks.
Interesting - let’s say that the data actually says that. What would you think is the takeaway from that?
First, I would thank Harsin for including the TE's in our arsenal of weapons. The middle of the field would FINALLY be an area we could attack and excel (much like various opponents have done to us over the years). On third downs an added threat of a TE will stress the defense. Nothing but good comes from having a solid TE weapon(s) (by committee or 1 standout). And it would lead to AWESOME recruiting (HS) or portal candidates.
Data is so cool - makes the world of football even more interesting to me. Thanks for your research, Edrick!
The biggest takeaway for me here is that this is an early season, limited data set so far...all green lights, but I'll be fascinated to see how these stats and comparisons play out over the year...Thanks Edrick!
another thing I'm watching for and would love some data to flesh out: how do DC's attack JKS?