Cal football is paying for past failures

The California Golden Bears could not capitalize on previous attempts to grow the program under Justin Wilcox, and now the credit is coming due.

Credit: Cal Football

One year ago, we had College Gameday in Berkeley.

Cal fans, after a month of enjoying the spotlight for their creativity and spirit, descended onto Memorial Glade in the early morning hours, and produced one of the best scenes ESPN has ever been able to telecast. It showcased our potential, our chaos, our culture, our love.

That momentum seemed to ride us all the way to a 35-10 lead against the #8 team in the nation in a packed house that harkened back to the glory days. Anything seemed possible. Everything felt like it was building toward something glorious.

Then everything came apart in one horrible hour.

Then came a series of unfortunate defeats that popped the balloon.

Then came the portal.

Then we retreated to the caves.

2024 was a crucial moment for the program’s ability to compete nationally, and it did not come together. 2025 is repaying the debts.

The Bears had to rebuild a 6-6 team at the very last minute, and only one of the easiest schedules we’ve ever been gifted is saving this team from complete oblivion.

Two blowouts in two weeks against average to good competition signal what we all feared: Cal does not have what it takes to win consistently, and might be closer to being bad than good. They can summon the energy to beat a solid Minnesota team and outlast competition at a similar level, but wins will be slogs and defeats could be embarrassing.

There are no sure victories, not even against hapless North Carolina or rebuilding Stanford. The bottom can come out if we’re not careful. Cal fans have to be on guard, and that’s just how things have been under Justin Wilcox.

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I was careful to write up about Boston College last week, even if it was a great win, because it showed as many warning signs as it brought flashes of euphoria. Not being able to generate explosives against an Eagles team that got lit up by Stanford set off the alarm bells, and after the early 21-7 lead, Duke completely shut down Cal’s offense. Boston College, a terrible run attack, rushed for as many yards against Cal as they’ve put up in their other three P4 games combined. Duke continued that trend at the beginning and maintained it through the end, until the Cal defense finally broke.

The Cal offensive line, which put it together for the first quarter of the season, is getting overrun by standard pressure and non-blitzes, making it difficult to adapt as the game wears on. Line play dictated Cal’s defeat against Duke. They will need to be much, much better in future games to give the Bears a chance in future matchups.

Cal had to rebuild its running back and wide receiver room from scratch, and each week we’re hoping and praying they don’t drop a critical ball at an important juncture, or that they’ll plunge into a pile of defenders for a yard when we need two. This is a patchwork group that is doing its best, but there are moments when talent is needed, and on Saturday, they got locked down for the final two-thirds of the game.

Most importantly, Cal has a young quarterback who is talented, and shows flashes of greatness, but he should not be the best player on the team at this point in his development. It’s asking him to do too much, too soon, and the vultures are circling. The retention of Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is now at the forefront of every Cal fan’s mind, and that battle gets harder every week.

These are the consequences of rebuilding this quickly. The Bears cannot be consistent, meaning they can’t be trusted, meaning it’ll be even more difficult to sell the program to our people at scale. And we NEED to sell it before this decade runs out.

This leads to the difficult conversations of how to move forward, because Cal needs to make tough decisions in the coming months.

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Cal will still fight. Cal will still very likely win games. Perhaps a switch flips, and JKS is able to hit another gear that can carry us to an upset here or there.

But what we’re seeing is not close to enough.

Justin Wilcox laid the path to this place in his ninth year. He has had many, many, many opportunities to capitalize, and the team just cannot hit the extra gear that’s needed to get over the top.

Cal is on four offensive coordinators in four years to try to jumpstart the offense, and yet it continues to hit a wall against good opponents. Cal’s defense, once Wilcox’s calling card, cannot seem to get stops when they need to anymore, or has to hold on for dear life when they get into a street fight. Cal has relied heavily on the transfer portal to offset recruiting misses and star players leaving, but a few injuries can derail the trajectory of the season.

It’s not all his fault, but the constant is him. If he could perform better in these moments, his entire career is looked on differently here, but those times are so sparing, so ephemeral. There is only so much more we can sell if these performances keep going like this.

A year ago, the world seemed so wide for Cal football. The opportunity still exists, but with college football moving the way it is, we all can see the window closing. New leadership with Rich Lyons and Ron Rivera holds the promise that there will be accountability, but we will have to see what standard they set.

The Cal family needs to dream again, and soon, before the lights go out for good.