Odds makers don't care how teams/programs finish. It's all based on the greater publics reception. They want half the people to bet one way and the other half to bet, the other way.
Put another way....not many people are betting on Cal football.
Cal will hit the over. Viewed all the pac 12 teams over/unders and this one stood out to me, before I saw this article.
CAL will outperform again. I just was in the midst of a long write up on why, with an in depth analysis of our strengths and weaknesses against our opponents and it magically disappeared. So I'll just make this short. We may not have the talent of UW, UO, USC and a few more, but we have one of the best coaching staff's around, and smart and disciplined kids. Give Justin Wilcox and his staff talent like UO or USC and they'd be in the championship playoffs every year. I also see Garbers coming into his own this year in Musgrave's system. If he does this, with his athleticism he could be the best QB in the PAC12. Let's hope I'm right. We have a lot of returning experience, depth everywhere but D-Line, and even there we are in better shape than before. (But losing Brett Johnson for the year cannot be understated). Our offense will be fun to watch and if its clicking we should put plenty of points on the board for a ball control offense. Our D will flex and bend, but should keep us in every game. I think our toughest games will be UO in Autzen, but would love to see us silence that crowd of hippies who hated football until Phil Knight provided the billions needed to buy a team, and UCLA because Chip Kelly knows how to scheme his offense against Wilcox's defenses. Should be a fun year. Go Bears!!
If we go by the recent track record, the oddsmakers are 1.5 wins behind. That gives Cal 7 regular season wins, plus a bowl game win hopefully. I like our chances this year. Lots of returning players, including key 6th year seniors. We’ve beaten the reigning PAC-12 champion three years in a row, two of them on the road, if I’m not mistaken. Road success is an under appreciated dimension of Wilcox’s tenure. I’m ready for a breakout year.
I'm cautiously optimistic but don't feel really good about the QB position. One injury away from players with little to no experience. Hopefully during camp a second QB emerges to challenge or even beat out Garbers.
The odds makers know what they are doing, and I would say they got it right on the predictions for Cal's season. I am basing that on a hugely disappointing showing in last year's abbreviated season. I know that Musgrave was breaking in an all new offense, but the lack of a ground attack and an inconsistent passing game were there for all to see.
There is no one on the offensive side of the ball that will scare defenses, so they will cheat up to stop the run. The loss of Johnson on defense cannot be understated. A 5-7 season sounds about right, unfortunately
You say the oddsmakers know what they are doing, and Nick showed they've been wrong every year of Wilcox's tenure.
The oddsmakers goal is not to get accurate projections, but instead to get the most money and bets laid down on either side of the line - which is slightly different than getting an accurate projection of the season.
Unfortunately is the word. We don't have firepower, so we will have to have a superior scheme to score more points than we have been. I've always felt that it's a lost season when you bring in a new offensive coordinator. A team needs time to learn and adjust their skills to the new system. People for some reason now expect all the pieces to be in place on day one, but I don't recall ever seeing that happen (unless you are talent-rich which we are not). Having had the Musgrave offense in place for only scattered practices, 4 covid games and one mostly full spring practice gives us 1/3 of the experience you'd get in a normal year running the scheme. Without any obvious break-out stars on offense and an unfinished learning curve, the offense will continue to struggle and between 5-6 wins seems about right. I hope I'm wrong.
Very reasonable. It remains to be seen if any "firepower" gets developed on offense during camp. I think we know what Garbers can and can not do. Musgrave will really need to coach/scheme to a very high degree. Per usual, Cal's offense will start and stop with the OL and other than experience that unit hasn't shown anything in 3 + years.
Last year wasn't a season that we can count. We missed games because entire position groups could not play. Same for other teams. It wasn't a real indicator of how good our team can be. Second, our special teams gave up how many wins? I don't expect a repeat of that this year with a normal practice schedule. Lastly, bookies set the lines based on bettors. Bettors are usually poorly informed and make decisions based on historical performance and biases toward programs with a history of success in the past. Sure they look at recruiting talent, but they don't look at coaching, grade whether the team underperformed or over performed, schemes and more. I expect us to do win at least 8 and maybe 10 games this year.
Rugbear, I don't know you, but I will buy you a steak dinner at your place of choice if Cal gets 10 wins this year. The previous 10-win seasons I can remember were all fortold. In 1991, when Cal came within a broken end zone pass of vying for a national championship, the 1990 team was flashing with superstar Russell White at tailback, Sean Dawkins showing to be one of the top three receivers in the conference and Mike Pawlawski proving it was worth the wait to sit behind Troy Taylor for a couple of seasons. In 2004, when Cal again came within a broken end zone pass of vying for the national championship, the 2003 season had Aaron Rodgers showing everyone that he might be one of the best Cal quarterbacks to wear the uniform.
I don't see those guys on Cal's roster this year, and to be brutally honest, I don't see a coaching staff that was as good as what Cal had in 1991 with Bruce Snyder and in 2004 with Jeff Tedford. It sounds cliche, but I hope you are right and I am wrong.
I second that. Even if we pretend 2020 never happened. People tend to forgot just how hard and rare it is for this program in this conference to reach 10 wins, historically. And as you mentioned, there were typically NFL caliber (and potentially a Heisman candidate in the mix) returning with that hype. An expectation of 6 for this season sounds about right, with the maybe/"this went really well and we can be amped about the future" if we pull off 8, or really go bonkers and pull off 9... and those >6 outcomes would likely be coming with us being on the receiving end of most of the good breaks and winning all of the toss-ups. Vegas, the eternal Cal pessimist as it seems (for whatever logistical/strategic reasons) putting us at 5.5, instead of 6.5, does make it sound like a solid bet on the over, as I take was the sentiment of Nick's post.
It is my most optimistic projection, but we CAN beat any team on our schedule. The biggest single component of our success this year will be how Chase Garbers executes Musgrave's offense. If Musgrave schemes correctly, and I believe he will, and if Garbers can get into a rhythm, then we can score on anyone. Musgrave will find the weakness of every defense we play and attack it in multiple ways, but Garbers needs to execute on the passing game. If he does, then our run game will be strong which makes our passing game stronger. Lastly, I appreciate your offer, but I would rather you make a recurring donation, every month, to the CAL football program, in an amount equal to one steak dinner. If we get a lot of people to do that then it starts adding up into real money quickly! ;-) Go Bears!!
Wow....you put me on the spot with that one. I am a die-hard fan, but not an alum or a guy with donor bucks. Just a regular dude living in So Cal and trying to foot my tax bill while resisting the siren call to move to states like Nevada or Arizona with no income tax.
I do think I have supported the program by attending almost every home game for over 20 years when I lived in Walnut Creek.
It's interesting how some people say 2020 was a fluke and can't make any assumptions based on last year's results yet the same people point out how we beat Oregon in 2020.
In a lot of ways, what little we got in 2020 was entirely in line with the rest of the Wilcox era. Throw out the silly, scheduled-at-the-last-minute UCLA game, and you have three games, all of which were low scoring games with an average margin of 3 points each.
People point to that game because it was the one game where we weren't missing major groups, it's much more telling that the losses where we were missing all the starters on our lines. Not that this means Cal will be a 10 win team, but that a Cal team with a few weeks of practice and a healthy roster can be compete with the top of the league.
Is Luc Bequette coming back?? I saw he is playing another year (from covid eligibility) and transferring out of BC but didn't see any news indicating he was returning to Cal? Or, are you referring to Marquez Bimage?
I'd take seven wins, though I would prefer 8 or 9. It seems like offensively we have to do more than trying to run out the clock with conservatism starting midway through the third quarter. However, Chase has usually put us in a position to win on the last drive several times. Worked against SC and Washington, didn't work against Stanford and OSU last season due to flukey plays against us.
To elaborate a bit on Garbers, he runs the two minute drill as well as any college QB I've ever seen. Doesn't have the best arm strength or accuracy but delivers the W's - USC, Stanford, Washington oftentimes on the opponents' field. Ice water in the veins.
Of course. It's because of their historical trends and talent. But we almost beat UO two years ago with a backup QB and beat them in 2020. USC has beat us twice and we have beat them once, in LA, since Wilcox became head coach. We can beat both of these teams.
Odds makers don't care how teams/programs finish. It's all based on the greater publics reception. They want half the people to bet one way and the other half to bet, the other way.
Put another way....not many people are betting on Cal football.
Cal will hit the over. Viewed all the pac 12 teams over/unders and this one stood out to me, before I saw this article.
And I'm a Oregon fan.
Go Bears!
Chips on our shoulders? Go Bears!
CAL will outperform again. I just was in the midst of a long write up on why, with an in depth analysis of our strengths and weaknesses against our opponents and it magically disappeared. So I'll just make this short. We may not have the talent of UW, UO, USC and a few more, but we have one of the best coaching staff's around, and smart and disciplined kids. Give Justin Wilcox and his staff talent like UO or USC and they'd be in the championship playoffs every year. I also see Garbers coming into his own this year in Musgrave's system. If he does this, with his athleticism he could be the best QB in the PAC12. Let's hope I'm right. We have a lot of returning experience, depth everywhere but D-Line, and even there we are in better shape than before. (But losing Brett Johnson for the year cannot be understated). Our offense will be fun to watch and if its clicking we should put plenty of points on the board for a ball control offense. Our D will flex and bend, but should keep us in every game. I think our toughest games will be UO in Autzen, but would love to see us silence that crowd of hippies who hated football until Phil Knight provided the billions needed to buy a team, and UCLA because Chip Kelly knows how to scheme his offense against Wilcox's defenses. Should be a fun year. Go Bears!!
If we go by the recent track record, the oddsmakers are 1.5 wins behind. That gives Cal 7 regular season wins, plus a bowl game win hopefully. I like our chances this year. Lots of returning players, including key 6th year seniors. We’ve beaten the reigning PAC-12 champion three years in a row, two of them on the road, if I’m not mistaken. Road success is an under appreciated dimension of Wilcox’s tenure. I’m ready for a breakout year.
I'm cautiously optimistic but don't feel really good about the QB position. One injury away from players with little to no experience. Hopefully during camp a second QB emerges to challenge or even beat out Garbers.
The odds makers know what they are doing, and I would say they got it right on the predictions for Cal's season. I am basing that on a hugely disappointing showing in last year's abbreviated season. I know that Musgrave was breaking in an all new offense, but the lack of a ground attack and an inconsistent passing game were there for all to see.
There is no one on the offensive side of the ball that will scare defenses, so they will cheat up to stop the run. The loss of Johnson on defense cannot be understated. A 5-7 season sounds about right, unfortunately
You say the oddsmakers know what they are doing, and Nick showed they've been wrong every year of Wilcox's tenure.
The oddsmakers goal is not to get accurate projections, but instead to get the most money and bets laid down on either side of the line - which is slightly different than getting an accurate projection of the season.
Unfortunately is the word. We don't have firepower, so we will have to have a superior scheme to score more points than we have been. I've always felt that it's a lost season when you bring in a new offensive coordinator. A team needs time to learn and adjust their skills to the new system. People for some reason now expect all the pieces to be in place on day one, but I don't recall ever seeing that happen (unless you are talent-rich which we are not). Having had the Musgrave offense in place for only scattered practices, 4 covid games and one mostly full spring practice gives us 1/3 of the experience you'd get in a normal year running the scheme. Without any obvious break-out stars on offense and an unfinished learning curve, the offense will continue to struggle and between 5-6 wins seems about right. I hope I'm wrong.
Very reasonable. It remains to be seen if any "firepower" gets developed on offense during camp. I think we know what Garbers can and can not do. Musgrave will really need to coach/scheme to a very high degree. Per usual, Cal's offense will start and stop with the OL and other than experience that unit hasn't shown anything in 3 + years.
Last year wasn't a season that we can count. We missed games because entire position groups could not play. Same for other teams. It wasn't a real indicator of how good our team can be. Second, our special teams gave up how many wins? I don't expect a repeat of that this year with a normal practice schedule. Lastly, bookies set the lines based on bettors. Bettors are usually poorly informed and make decisions based on historical performance and biases toward programs with a history of success in the past. Sure they look at recruiting talent, but they don't look at coaching, grade whether the team underperformed or over performed, schemes and more. I expect us to do win at least 8 and maybe 10 games this year.
Rugbear, I don't know you, but I will buy you a steak dinner at your place of choice if Cal gets 10 wins this year. The previous 10-win seasons I can remember were all fortold. In 1991, when Cal came within a broken end zone pass of vying for a national championship, the 1990 team was flashing with superstar Russell White at tailback, Sean Dawkins showing to be one of the top three receivers in the conference and Mike Pawlawski proving it was worth the wait to sit behind Troy Taylor for a couple of seasons. In 2004, when Cal again came within a broken end zone pass of vying for the national championship, the 2003 season had Aaron Rodgers showing everyone that he might be one of the best Cal quarterbacks to wear the uniform.
I don't see those guys on Cal's roster this year, and to be brutally honest, I don't see a coaching staff that was as good as what Cal had in 1991 with Bruce Snyder and in 2004 with Jeff Tedford. It sounds cliche, but I hope you are right and I am wrong.
I second that. Even if we pretend 2020 never happened. People tend to forgot just how hard and rare it is for this program in this conference to reach 10 wins, historically. And as you mentioned, there were typically NFL caliber (and potentially a Heisman candidate in the mix) returning with that hype. An expectation of 6 for this season sounds about right, with the maybe/"this went really well and we can be amped about the future" if we pull off 8, or really go bonkers and pull off 9... and those >6 outcomes would likely be coming with us being on the receiving end of most of the good breaks and winning all of the toss-ups. Vegas, the eternal Cal pessimist as it seems (for whatever logistical/strategic reasons) putting us at 5.5, instead of 6.5, does make it sound like a solid bet on the over, as I take was the sentiment of Nick's post.
It is my most optimistic projection, but we CAN beat any team on our schedule. The biggest single component of our success this year will be how Chase Garbers executes Musgrave's offense. If Musgrave schemes correctly, and I believe he will, and if Garbers can get into a rhythm, then we can score on anyone. Musgrave will find the weakness of every defense we play and attack it in multiple ways, but Garbers needs to execute on the passing game. If he does, then our run game will be strong which makes our passing game stronger. Lastly, I appreciate your offer, but I would rather you make a recurring donation, every month, to the CAL football program, in an amount equal to one steak dinner. If we get a lot of people to do that then it starts adding up into real money quickly! ;-) Go Bears!!
Wow....you put me on the spot with that one. I am a die-hard fan, but not an alum or a guy with donor bucks. Just a regular dude living in So Cal and trying to foot my tax bill while resisting the siren call to move to states like Nevada or Arizona with no income tax.
I do think I have supported the program by attending almost every home game for over 20 years when I lived in Walnut Creek.
:-)
It's interesting how some people say 2020 was a fluke and can't make any assumptions based on last year's results yet the same people point out how we beat Oregon in 2020.
In a lot of ways, what little we got in 2020 was entirely in line with the rest of the Wilcox era. Throw out the silly, scheduled-at-the-last-minute UCLA game, and you have three games, all of which were low scoring games with an average margin of 3 points each.
People point to that game because it was the one game where we weren't missing major groups, it's much more telling that the losses where we were missing all the starters on our lines. Not that this means Cal will be a 10 win team, but that a Cal team with a few weeks of practice and a healthy roster can be compete with the top of the league.
Did the Ducks have a 100% roster? (FYI I don't know the answer)
Did someone say Troy Taylor!!?
Is Luc Bequette coming back?? I saw he is playing another year (from covid eligibility) and transferring out of BC but didn't see any news indicating he was returning to Cal? Or, are you referring to Marquez Bimage?
I'd take seven wins, though I would prefer 8 or 9. It seems like offensively we have to do more than trying to run out the clock with conservatism starting midway through the third quarter. However, Chase has usually put us in a position to win on the last drive several times. Worked against SC and Washington, didn't work against Stanford and OSU last season due to flukey plays against us.
"I'd take seven wins, though I would prefer 8 or 9"
Why would you take such a controversial position?!
To elaborate a bit on Garbers, he runs the two minute drill as well as any college QB I've ever seen. Doesn't have the best arm strength or accuracy but delivers the W's - USC, Stanford, Washington oftentimes on the opponents' field. Ice water in the veins.
Another take on the Bears' season and the prognosticators:
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2021-pac-12-championship-odds-picks-usc-and-oregon-open-as-favorites-but-utah-brings-best-value/
Of course. It's because of their historical trends and talent. But we almost beat UO two years ago with a backup QB and beat them in 2020. USC has beat us twice and we have beat them once, in LA, since Wilcox became head coach. We can beat both of these teams.
“ the Bears are 10-11 in games decided by 8 points or (fewer).”
And our talent has gotten better every year and we now have been in Musgrave's offense for over a year. Let's see how that changes this year.