Cal v. Minnesota Football 2025 Analysis: Bears Rising to the Pressure

Cal’s Offensive Adjustments Help Secure the Win

Credit: Rob Hwang

Much ink had been spilled about Minnesota’s defense heading into last Saturday’s match up. When Minnesota pressured Sagapolutele–challenging the young quarterback’s ability to go through reads quickly–Cal had to rethink its approach in real time.

In the first half, the Bears had relied on a pass-heavy scheme. But in the second half, Cal made a clear shift: more balance, running the ball, and creating fewer situations where Sagapolutele had to make quick reads under heavy pressure.

First Half: Aggressive Pass Scheme

Cal came out with a pass-heavy scheme: on 1st downs, they threw the ball 72% of the time, and on 2nd downs, they passed 69% of the time. That aggressive pass scheme kept the Gophers’ defense on its heels, but it also invited pressure aimed at disrupting Sagapolutele’s rhythm.

Cal relied heavily on passing plays in the first half, but ran the ball more in the second half.

Halftime Adjustments: Run-the-Ball

The play-calling shifted dramatically after halftime: the pass rate dropped from 72% to 27% on 1st down and from 69% to 50% on 2nd down. The pivot took some pressure off of Sagapolutele, leaned on the run game, and introduced play sequences designed to use Minnesota’s defensive pressure to the offense’s advantage.

In part, Cal was responding to game situations. In neutral situations, Cal’s Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) was basically flat (+/- 1%) in each half. If anything, Cal moved from slightly less pass-heavy than expected in the 1st half (-1% PROE) in neutral situations to slightly more pass-heavy in the 2nd half (+1% PROE).

Expected pass rate calculated as a logistic function of down, distance, yard line, time, and score trained on in-game data.

The Bears Kept It Rolling

The rolling five-play pass rate gives a sense of the in-game play development and mix. Cal had long stretches of passing in the first half, but after halftime, the offense pivoted towards the run game.

Cal had more balanced offensive production in the second half.

Bottom line, Cal’s first half approach leaned on Sagapolutele’s arm. When Minnesota brought pressure, the Bears adjusted: running more, passing less, taking pressure off of our QB. Minnesota’s defense was a good test for offensive play-calling and the scheme adapted well to defensive pressure.