Cal football ranked 54th in SP+ preseason rankings
A little higher than expected.
Meet SP+, Justin Wilcox’s mortal enemy.
SP+ is Bill Connelly’s favorite metric and generally considered to be the gold standard of advanced metrics in college football. By looking at tempo- and opponent-adjusted measures of college football efficiency, we get a stronger sense as to how a college football team might perform, particularly when we have a large enough sample size to predict performance.
SP+ favors a ton of metrics that correlate strongly with peak performance for a college football team: Explosiveness. Efficiency. Chunk yards. Point differential.
Cal has been good at none of those things during the Wilcox era.
So the Bears have rarely moved into even the top-50 of SP+ despite finishing with winning seasons two of the last three years. The Bears finished 8-5 in 2019 and finished 74th, one of the worst marks for a Power 5 program with a winning record.
Cal is currently situated at 54th in the 2021 preseason rankings. This is definitely not due to previous performance—Cal was 86th last season in its abbreviated four-game sample size. No, it’s the returning production that is making Connelly’s model a bit more bullish on the potential of the Bears.
Here are the Pac-12 preseason rankings for SP+ for the 2021 season.
5. Oregon Ducks
11. Washington Huskies
17. USC Trojans
18. Arizona State Sun Devils
19. Utah Utes
21. UCLA Bruins
46. Washington State Cougars
50. Colorado Buffaloes
54. Cal
60. Oregon State Beavers
68. Trees
92. Arizona Wildcats
Outperforming expectations? That's my life story and those of many first generation Cal students. Bring it on! A longshoreman father, and me a Son of California. Who would have ever guessed?
I guess its better than nothing, but we'll see where we end up at the end of the season. This season was not something by which to measure any teams in the PAC12. I will also say that the 2019 season was marred by the Garbers injury. We won every game where he played more than a half. I think one of the biggest components in a teams success is QB play. Yo can have a great team with an average QB and they won't end up with a great record. You can have an average team with a great QB that will finish with a better than average record. I think that when Garbers is on his game, he's a damn good QB. He played as a freshman and had a steep learning curve. Then, in BB's last year it all came together, except he had not yet learned that in Power 5 football he can't be the hero he was in high school and take the hits that he took trying to get that extra yard or first down. He has not had a full Spring or season in Musgrave's system, but I believe that if we have a normal Spring and Fall practice schedule this year, Garbers will open some eyes next year. Second, Wilcox continues to elevate our talent with recruiting. With work in the weight room and time on the field with our coaches, our kids will be competitive as hell. I will continue to say that I think Coach WIlcox continues to field one of the better coaching staffs in the country; no bull. Lastly I think CAL is starting to mature as Wilcox's team. I think we're gonna be a lot better than 8-4 during the regular season, we've beat UW the last two times we played them. Two years ago we were in the game against the Ducks with a back-up QB and this year we beat them. I think we are way better than WASU and if we are healthy we should be able to play with UCLA. I think we are a better team but Chip Kelly is the master at offensive play calling agains the Bears. I still think we finish above them. When we play well we can beat USC; Wilcox has done it. I think ASU and Utah will be tough. We'll knock off Colorado. Two teams that will be way better than these ratings indicate are Stanford and OSU. Shaw was distracted in 2019 by his brothers cancer (if you have not seen the story its awesome - it was all kept under the radar). Stanford gave us a taste of what is to come next year with the way they finished this season. OSU is going to surprise some folks. I like their head coach and I think he's destined for some big things. I would take him over Cristobal or Helton all day long. Lake at UW is an unknown at HC but I think he will be as solid as Petersen was. In conclusion, I would expect us to be a top 30 team and hopefully a top 25 team at season end. Go Bears!