The realist in me says: We'll know a lot after the three OOC games. Win them all and we may be looking at 8-4. Win two of three and we're struggling to 6-6. Lose two of three and we're probably 4-8. Lose them all would mean 2-10. No more 5-7 or 7-5. Had enough of those.
I see it a little differently. How many games did we lose in the last two years by one score or less? 10. That's 5 each year. I say that our new portal talent differential wins us three or more of those games so we at least 8 wins. Pumpin' sunshine Baby!!
I've spent the last month re-watching last year's games, and considering the personnel changes and improvements in key areas, there's a possibility of overturning at least 4 games this year. Here are a few observations:
Firstly, our special teams were consistently problematic, essentially offering our opponents points on a platter.
Secondly, our backfield would occasionally break down, leading to explosive plays and touchdowns for the opposing team.
last, I noticed there were countless instances when the play would breakdown and Plummer would either get sacked or he was forced to throw away the ball and it's evident that if he had enough speed to outrun the defense we could have converted many plays into first downs.
The thing that has me the most exited is the damage Sam Jackson could have inflicted if you replaced him Plummer when the plays broke down. With his speed and athleticism, in the same situations he would have gashed them for 10-20 yards a pop. This would have kept our drives alive and at least put us in a position to kick field goals. If he can protect the ball and not throw any more interceptions than Plummer did last year, our offense could be scary.
Good points about Cal's questionable OL and it's ability to handle the opposition's elite QBs. We get a good look at the former early on. Then we'll be able to get true sense of the latter by the end of game 4 when conference play opens @ UW.
I see the schedule shaking out in tiers (not tears, hopefully!) of potentials for a win from highest potential to lowest:
--------
--------
Best case: 8-4
Tier 1: Idaho [1 win out of 1]
Tier 2: vs ASU, @ NT, @LSJU [3 wins out of 3]
Tier 3: vs WSU, vs OSU, vs AU [2 wins out of 3]
Tier 4: @UW, @fUCLA [1 win out 2]
Tier 5: vs U$C, @ OR, @UU [1 win out of 3]
--------
--------
Worst case: 5-7
Tier 1: Idaho [1 win out of 1]
Tier 2: vs ASU, @ NT, @LSJU [2 wins out of 3]
Tier 3: vs WSU, vs OSU, vs AU [1 wins out of 3]
Tier 4 & 5: @UW, @fUCLA, vs U$C, @ OR, @UU [1 win out 5]
Just sneak one extra win out Bears! 2-1 in OOC, 4-5 in conference gets you to 6-6, bowl game, can get a better recruiting class. Blow up the transfer portal again, but with more quality to go with quantity. It can be all up from there.
I think Cal really has a shot at 8-4, maybe even 9-3. A little tighter D, an extra TD per game, and they are there. Lots more DL and DBs this year, plus Spavital magic on the offensive side = doable. Got to run the table in the OOC games, then just 5-4 in conference. DOABLE!!! Grrrah!!!! Can’t wait for kickoff.
I'm going to say the only GUARANTEED losses are @Utah and @Oregon. I like @Washington because of the recent witchcraft against the Huskies. $c at Memorial has "game of the year" written all over it. We finally have a Saturday Thanksgiving game, and I expect more bears than bruins in the stands at the Rose Bowl. Throw in OR State as another guaranteed L because they look like a great team and are worse off than us in realignment roulette.
Prediction: 8-4
Caveat: If we don't look good in the first three games, this will be a painful season.
I, too, would love to ruin the Husky's party. Their fans have somehow surpassed Oregon for most obnoxious online presence, rivaling the bandwagon SC fans that sprouted/reawakened with Riley & Williams and the UCLA troll accounts.
Well I'm stunned by the starting 5 OL. 4/5 were starters last year and the new guy at LT is playing out of position. We tried this last year with Ben Coleman and it was a total fail. What is the definition of insanity: repeating the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Perhaps the new coach will have the boys playing better, perhaps. And our starting QB is just now learning/getting what a pocket is and the need to stay in it to execute the offense? Frankly I think Jackson got the starting nod cuz the staff just doesn't know what they have at OL and figured they could mask any deficiencies with an uber mobile QB. I want to be wrong and need to be wrong for Cal to have any success this year.
It's hard to overstate the massive disadvantage our OL was in from a coaching perspective by all accounts. They were asked to execute complicated, out-dated plays, while seemingly not getting any coaching on fundamentals at their positions. For years we saw them actually regress, not improve, which points to a coaching problem and not personnel. If they aren't at least noticeably less bad then last year I would be surprised.
I'd like to think they're better and perhaps the new coach has made them better. What I'm curious about is that no one on the roster from last year was able to push the incumbents and actually beat out at least one of them!! That may speak to the lack of talent overall in that position group. But not one incumbent gets beaten out, c'mon man!! Also, it would have been helpful to change things up, specifically at center. Cindric was ready to medically retire!! Perhaps he holds up this year but I would have tried Driscoll at center and worked it out from there on the other positions. Perhaps Miller at LG (his more natural position) rather than LT.
We shall see the product in just a few short days....
Well I'll defer to you since I don't know anything about line play lol. But for my sanity I have to maintain an optimistic mindset, or at least try to!
I'm going to pump sunshine and say we're gonna beat the preseason over/under of 5.5 games and have an outside shot at 9-3. If you had to pin me down on a final record I'd go with 7-5
6-6 with this schedule would be amazing…Sun Bowl? Focking YES PLEASE…gimme.
So, I’m going in a different direction…I think the absolute key to this season is the D, NOT Spav/Bloesch/Sammy Jax V/O-line. Can Sirmon and Wilcox have the D playing at a consistently HIGH level and, more importantly, forcing turnovers? If the D is in the top quarter of the conference, I like our chances to win the swing games we gotta win to bowl: NT, Auburn, Idaho, Wazzu, ASU, OSU, Furd, fUCLA. Can we get 6 outta those?
Just listened to latest No Trucks Stop Here Pcast. After reviewing SC game, they get on to the coming weeks predictions. Lot of lazy-hipster vitriol for Cal. Not news for sure but boy howdy, I hope the hell we flip it around this season.
Welp, let's be honest. $C in some ways is ready for Sunday. Their defense still looks sketchy, but that offense is no joke. Branch is crazy! Williams might go back to back Heisman. Let's give the Devil his due.
Bears got $C at home. The matchup will feature two teams facing each other between two big time tilts in the teeth of their schedules. Bears should give no quarter and ask no quarter!
Of course, I like the best-case scenario. But I agree that 6-6 would be OK. Haven't been to a bowl game in a long time. Go Bears! It will be fun to watch some football!
I like JW, but it seems like for the length of his tenure we can just post a season prediction on the wall that says “6-6 plus or minus 2”, go grab a beer, and save ourselves the headache of thinking too deeply about it. Cheers to Nick for doing that work for us!
The realist in me says: We'll know a lot after the three OOC games. Win them all and we may be looking at 8-4. Win two of three and we're struggling to 6-6. Lose two of three and we're probably 4-8. Lose them all would mean 2-10. No more 5-7 or 7-5. Had enough of those.
The die hard Cal fan in me says: 11-1. Full stop.
I see it a little differently. How many games did we lose in the last two years by one score or less? 10. That's 5 each year. I say that our new portal talent differential wins us three or more of those games so we at least 8 wins. Pumpin' sunshine Baby!!
I've spent the last month re-watching last year's games, and considering the personnel changes and improvements in key areas, there's a possibility of overturning at least 4 games this year. Here are a few observations:
Firstly, our special teams were consistently problematic, essentially offering our opponents points on a platter.
Secondly, our backfield would occasionally break down, leading to explosive plays and touchdowns for the opposing team.
last, I noticed there were countless instances when the play would breakdown and Plummer would either get sacked or he was forced to throw away the ball and it's evident that if he had enough speed to outrun the defense we could have converted many plays into first downs.
The thing that has me the most exited is the damage Sam Jackson could have inflicted if you replaced him Plummer when the plays broke down. With his speed and athleticism, in the same situations he would have gashed them for 10-20 yards a pop. This would have kept our drives alive and at least put us in a position to kick field goals. If he can protect the ball and not throw any more interceptions than Plummer did last year, our offense could be scary.
That’s how my math is working. Spavital + more talent on both sides of the ball =
More W’s
From your keyboard to God's ears, Bob.
Your prediction would be a miracle and make JK look like a genius with the JW contract extension.
Good points about Cal's questionable OL and it's ability to handle the opposition's elite QBs. We get a good look at the former early on. Then we'll be able to get true sense of the latter by the end of game 4 when conference play opens @ UW.
I see the schedule shaking out in tiers (not tears, hopefully!) of potentials for a win from highest potential to lowest:
--------
--------
Best case: 8-4
Tier 1: Idaho [1 win out of 1]
Tier 2: vs ASU, @ NT, @LSJU [3 wins out of 3]
Tier 3: vs WSU, vs OSU, vs AU [2 wins out of 3]
Tier 4: @UW, @fUCLA [1 win out 2]
Tier 5: vs U$C, @ OR, @UU [1 win out of 3]
--------
--------
Worst case: 5-7
Tier 1: Idaho [1 win out of 1]
Tier 2: vs ASU, @ NT, @LSJU [2 wins out of 3]
Tier 3: vs WSU, vs OSU, vs AU [1 wins out of 3]
Tier 4 & 5: @UW, @fUCLA, vs U$C, @ OR, @UU [1 win out 5]
Oregon State is scarier to me than @ UCLA.
Good thing then that our Golden Bears will be protecting Bear Territory when OSU comes to Strawberry Canyon on October 7th!
Golden Bears at the stadium in Pasadena the Saturday after Thanksgiving...eek! 😱
Worst case scenario to me is ALOT worse than 5-7.
Also if we go 8-4 with our schedule that means we are a top 25 team which I honestly don’t see.
Just sneak one extra win out Bears! 2-1 in OOC, 4-5 in conference gets you to 6-6, bowl game, can get a better recruiting class. Blow up the transfer portal again, but with more quality to go with quantity. It can be all up from there.
I think Cal really has a shot at 8-4, maybe even 9-3. A little tighter D, an extra TD per game, and they are there. Lots more DL and DBs this year, plus Spavital magic on the offensive side = doable. Got to run the table in the OOC games, then just 5-4 in conference. DOABLE!!! Grrrah!!!! Can’t wait for kickoff.
I'm going to say the only GUARANTEED losses are @Utah and @Oregon. I like @Washington because of the recent witchcraft against the Huskies. $c at Memorial has "game of the year" written all over it. We finally have a Saturday Thanksgiving game, and I expect more bears than bruins in the stands at the Rose Bowl. Throw in OR State as another guaranteed L because they look like a great team and are worse off than us in realignment roulette.
Prediction: 8-4
Caveat: If we don't look good in the first three games, this will be a painful season.
I, too, would love to ruin the Husky's party. Their fans have somehow surpassed Oregon for most obnoxious online presence, rivaling the bandwagon SC fans that sprouted/reawakened with Riley & Williams and the UCLA troll accounts.
Well I'm stunned by the starting 5 OL. 4/5 were starters last year and the new guy at LT is playing out of position. We tried this last year with Ben Coleman and it was a total fail. What is the definition of insanity: repeating the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Perhaps the new coach will have the boys playing better, perhaps. And our starting QB is just now learning/getting what a pocket is and the need to stay in it to execute the offense? Frankly I think Jackson got the starting nod cuz the staff just doesn't know what they have at OL and figured they could mask any deficiencies with an uber mobile QB. I want to be wrong and need to be wrong for Cal to have any success this year.
Welp, we're starting this year with 0 losses.
So, got that going.
Which is nice.
It's hard to overstate the massive disadvantage our OL was in from a coaching perspective by all accounts. They were asked to execute complicated, out-dated plays, while seemingly not getting any coaching on fundamentals at their positions. For years we saw them actually regress, not improve, which points to a coaching problem and not personnel. If they aren't at least noticeably less bad then last year I would be surprised.
I'd like to think they're better and perhaps the new coach has made them better. What I'm curious about is that no one on the roster from last year was able to push the incumbents and actually beat out at least one of them!! That may speak to the lack of talent overall in that position group. But not one incumbent gets beaten out, c'mon man!! Also, it would have been helpful to change things up, specifically at center. Cindric was ready to medically retire!! Perhaps he holds up this year but I would have tried Driscoll at center and worked it out from there on the other positions. Perhaps Miller at LG (his more natural position) rather than LT.
We shall see the product in just a few short days....
Well I'll defer to you since I don't know anything about line play lol. But for my sanity I have to maintain an optimistic mindset, or at least try to!
Revenge Tour 2023
I'm going to pump sunshine and say we're gonna beat the preseason over/under of 5.5 games and have an outside shot at 9-3. If you had to pin me down on a final record I'd go with 7-5
Thanks Nick
Brutally honest. I wish we could be more optimistic …
But hey, TCU was not in anybody’s playoff picture last year. : )
GO BEARS!
I wish we could hire a coach capable of taking a team to the playoff, like TCU did.
Chicken 🐓 Spaghetti
Lol
6-6 with this schedule would be amazing…Sun Bowl? Focking YES PLEASE…gimme.
So, I’m going in a different direction…I think the absolute key to this season is the D, NOT Spav/Bloesch/Sammy Jax V/O-line. Can Sirmon and Wilcox have the D playing at a consistently HIGH level and, more importantly, forcing turnovers? If the D is in the top quarter of the conference, I like our chances to win the swing games we gotta win to bowl: NT, Auburn, Idaho, Wazzu, ASU, OSU, Furd, fUCLA. Can we get 6 outta those?
Just listened to latest No Trucks Stop Here Pcast. After reviewing SC game, they get on to the coming weeks predictions. Lot of lazy-hipster vitriol for Cal. Not news for sure but boy howdy, I hope the hell we flip it around this season.
Welp, let's be honest. $C in some ways is ready for Sunday. Their defense still looks sketchy, but that offense is no joke. Branch is crazy! Williams might go back to back Heisman. Let's give the Devil his due.
But I ALWAYS live for a $C upset!
Bears got $C at home. The matchup will feature two teams facing each other between two big time tilts in the teeth of their schedules. Bears should give no quarter and ask no quarter!
Win or die!
Is it too much to ask for Williams to get a massive case of diarrhea right before the game, which clears up on Sunday trip back to LA? lol
No one is going to respect us until we start winning.
If S. Jackson V turns out to be the second coming of Vince Young... ;)
5-7 is the most cromulent of cromulent predictions.
When I did the season predictor a couple weeks ago I came up with 5.45 IIRC. I think 5-7 or 6-6 seems most likely, I'll be homerish and go with 6-6.
Realistic: 4-8, struggling to score 20 points most games
How does that even compute when we scored 23.9 ppg last season with BILL MUSGRAVE AND ANGUS MCLURE and SPAV AND BLOESCH this year
Nice article thanks. Good summary of how things likely will end up. Let's just say I'd be happy with 6-6 and a bowl this time around.
Of course, I like the best-case scenario. But I agree that 6-6 would be OK. Haven't been to a bowl game in a long time. Go Bears! It will be fun to watch some football!
I like JW, but it seems like for the length of his tenure we can just post a season prediction on the wall that says “6-6 plus or minus 2”, go grab a beer, and save ourselves the headache of thinking too deeply about it. Cheers to Nick for doing that work for us!
Exactly…
6-6, +/- 1, every…single…year…
Looks great from a wrap-around porch.