This alternate reality also likely gets Wilcox poached, I'd assume, while the market is hot.
It is an interesting hypothetical, but I am pretty sure playing Utah at the end of the season while they're peaking would almost certainly not be a one-score game. Even in fantasyland, Roses are still so far away. :(
Yeah, the sad thing is that in there is still no world where we make the Rose Bowl. In the Reddit world (where every game is flipped), we're in the CCG and get blown out. In the 50-50 reflip that I simulated, a crazy threeway tie is still blocking us from even getting into the CCG.
I continue to sing his praises. He’s the right man for Cal whether we’re 3-8 or 8-3. Building on defense (which has been consistently good to great) is a long slog, but the only way to build a lasting winning program. Offense is finally gelling. Who would Cal be willing to pay, who would do a better job given the constraints?
If Wilcox could not fix things in years 4 and 5, which are the moment of truth for any head coach, what makes anyone think he will fix things going forward? Certainly a lot of it depends on who leaves - Teves and Brooks so far - and who comes in from the transfer portal. It seems to me that Cal would be willing to pay what they are paying now - $3 million large - and I think they are plenty of proven head coaches from the Mountain West that would bite on that. Or good coordinators. Hell, Joe Moorhead, the OC from Oregon, left to coach the Akron Zips for a lot less.
I think it depends in part on how much fans are truly willing to forgive/give a mulligan for the COVID year. If fans really are willing to forget that year as many Cal fans said, then Wilcox has one year where he took a step back (this year).
Teams like Washington State, UCLA and Utah got a lot better during that COVID year and carried it over into this season. Those that didn't - Washington and USC - have already fired their head coaches. Cal was showing disturbing signs of regression following their bowl win in 2019 and simply carried that regression into this year. So no mulligans, please. You got one year coach.....make it count.
You're definitely right that some teams got better after the 2020 COVID season. But for Cal, it was COVID *combined* with the simultaneous offensive coaching changes—to a more complex, pro-level system—that ground us to a halt for over a year. We only had 4 practices with Musgrave in spring 2020, and basically no normal practices in fall 2020, so the offense wasn't really installed until spring 2021.
The optimists among us think that we ended 2021 where we could have ended 2020 in normal circumstances: slight regression and general ups-and-downs, but some positive developments. So—assuming no coaching changes—the 2022 season will really tell us if we're on a good trajectory or not.
If it takes that long to get the pro-level system installed and operating smoothly, it was probably a mistake. I am not alone in this line of thinking. Maybe it's because Cal does not have the offensive line talent to run it, or the overall speed level required to keep defenses honest. Stanford has run the pro style offense successfully for years, but they had the benefit until recently of a national recruiting base with lots of 4-stars or better manning the O line and more team speed. I don't see a break-through next season, particularly if Cal has to go with a new quarterback.
The Golden Bearcast interview with Ed Quinn was super insightful to me with how defensive he was of Wilcox as far as resolving the “Am or am I not on the Wilcox train?” It brought up the Snyder years and how we had a coach that actually wanted to be here and build something sustainable, and could have if the AD hadn’t run him off. I feel like some up and comer in the Mountain West would use us a jump point for a less complicated environment. Wilcox strikes me as a long term guy that does things the right way and wants to be here. His players love him, and the fact that he hasn’t lost the locker room in the face of so much bullshit this season speaks volumes. I’m not nearly as patient with Musgrave though.
I look more at if he is doing the right things than an arbitrary timetable. If you're eating right and exercising, but the weight just isn't coming off, keep at it. The process will eventually work. If you have a bloated metabolism (bureaucracy), it's tougher, but still doable.
Take away Covid and we'd have beaten Arizona, that's a sixth win. That leaves four one-score games. It's reasonable to assume that you should win half of them, that gives us eight wins. We were an 8-4 team. I'd have been quite pleased with winning eight games in a regular season for the first time since '09 (2009 not 1909).
(BTW, I've looked through the records and this is -- at least in my estimation -- the best five-win season Cal has ever had. Not that it's much consolation.)
We're probably in contention for best 5-win team this year given we have five one-score games that ALL went to losses. Or at least the unluckiest team given that record.
They were 0-8 in one-score games, and their one multi-score loss was by 9 to Ohio State.
Re other 5-7 teams, Texas had a better point differential (+50) but had less excuse for losing to Kansas than we did for Arizona, Florida State was probably about at our level, Illinois wasn't much worse, and TCU of course narrowly beat us early in the year.
I hear you, Oski D., and with great respect, but at the end of the day, it's not an 8 win team...Cal's a 5-win team because it consistently failed to make the plays necessary to win a football game...hibernating the entire 2H v a middle-of-the-pack (no pun intended) Mtn West team; letting Zach Evans go 51 yards up the gut with :18 seconds left in the 1H @ Amon Carter Stadium (STILL shaking my f-ing head); Damien Moore fumbling at the goal line on 1st and goal @UW...Nikko muffing a game-tying TD catch @ Oregon. Musgrave, Chase and the O-line being completely unable to handle pressure in non-competitive losses to Wazzu & UCLA. Having a backup QB that struggled to handle the most basic football plays for the position and being unable to complete a pass v the worst FBS team in the country. Even in a win, another 2H disappearing act v. a completely overmatched USC team.
Here's a question: who was the last player from the offensive side of the ball that is playing on Sundays? In 5 seasons, what offensive players has Wilcox coached (inherited/recruited) that is in the NFL? The only one that jumps out at me is Patrick Mekari, who went undrafted.
The most physically gifted offensive player of the Wilcox era, a local kid no less, saw the writing on the wall and moved to Starkville, MS.
Musgrave runs a complicated, pro-style offense that is built for pro-level athletes. Until Wilcox starts recruiting more talent to Berkeley, the type of talent that can win one-on-one battles on offense, you're gonna struggle to win 50% of your games in a conference that produces NFL players.
Hopefully Wilcox can start getting these types of players, the sooner the better. I really hope he sticks because I think he can get there, but the 2021 team probably finished exactly where they should have.
Bringing Adrian Martinez on board would be a nice start. Hit that transfer portal hard, Bears...there is talent available. Half the Hawaii team is going to be in the portal....get after it...Go Bears!
Interesting and fun to read. Wilcox is fond of saying, "...it's a play here or a play there" from winning. Reality is a bit different, IMO, Cal hasn't reached the consistency and as importantly the domination on offense to win close games. Continuing to rely on a sturdy defense is, ultimately, a losing formula. If Cal can "find" 7 - 10 points more per game to go along w/ the great defense then we are looking at a team that can compete for the conference championship. Alas, those marginal points needed are all too elusive the past 5 years. It's a lot more than just a play or two. Hopefully Wilcox, if he's still around, fixes this issue during the off-season.
Wilcox is absolutely going to be on Oregon's list....just not convinced he'll be anything more than their consolation prize, THO bringing on a newly available Joe Brady in Eugene as OC is a potential game changer and should absolutely concern us.
Prior to this season, Wilcox's record in one-score games was 10-10 and a lot of that was with Garbers. The team didn't suddenly forget how to win close games, they were mostly just unlucky.
Respectfully, sacman, I just can't get entirely behind the unlucky argument. The blocked punt at their own 15 yard line that took a wonky bounce into no man's land giving Wazzu a 1st down? THAT is unlucky.
Experienced players continuously failing to make plays is not unlucky (Damien Moore fumble @ UW/Nikko td drop @ UO)...letting TCU run up the gut for a 50 yard td with <:20 on the clock in 1H is not unlucky...not having a competent backup QB that can make basic throws is not unlucky...failing to game plan/out-scheme v. an aggressive, blitz heavy D when you struggled with it twice already is not unlucky.
I acknowledge Wilcox is good for the school, and hope he stays put, I really do...I think 2022 can be a pretty solid season, especially given the schedule and the potentially elite young D. But I just can't look at 2021 and say we were 5-7 bc of bad luck.
Tomorrow’s post: What If…Cal beats USC in 2004? We play in the National Championship and beat Oklahoma. Tedford signs a lifetime contract and we dominate the Pac 10/12 for decades.
Here is an interesting what if.....What if Cal fans stopped smoking all of that good ganja from the Emerald Triangle and got more realistic about our chances of winning in the Pac-12 North? Naaahh, pot induced delusions are WAY more fun!
" I do not entertain hypotheticals. The world itself is vexing enough" :-) Let's get that OL squared away, and we can probably win a few more games in the real world.
I'm able to access it while not logged in. If you're having troubles, take a screenshot and email Rob (as the author) or support+writeforcalifornia(at)substack.com or admin(at)writeforcalifornia.com.
There is a Football player that CAL needs to recruit. Cathedral Catholic of San Diego RB Lucky Sutton with a performance for the ages :
In the southern championship game he had 436 Rushing Yards and 6 Rushing TD’s along with 1 Receiving TD. You can see Lucky in the California State Championship this Friday or Saturday. Anyone who has contact with recruiting team they need to talk to this amazing kid.
Other What Ifs....sorry I was too busy yesterday...
What if Cal had beat UCLA in 1975? Cal would have been the outright Pac-8 champion and gone to the Rose Bowl. And won, of course. Coach Mike White would have stayed on for at least another five years, and would take Cal to the Rose Bowl two more times. Cal fans would get more accustomed to recruiting "violations". Cal itself would become even more legendary as the pinnacle of both academic and football excellence...
What if Cal had run up the score against Southern Miss, scoring twice more to make the final score 40-16. Mack Brown would go around saying Texas was the more sportsmanlike team, having only beaten A&M 26-16. And Cal fans would feel guilty. But no one else would care about that, and Cal would go to the Rose Bowl and win! Aaron Rodgers would be drafted high in the first round and go to the 49ers. The Bay Area culture would help sustain his understanding of science....
This alternate reality also likely gets Wilcox poached, I'd assume, while the market is hot.
It is an interesting hypothetical, but I am pretty sure playing Utah at the end of the season while they're peaking would almost certainly not be a one-score game. Even in fantasyland, Roses are still so far away. :(
Yeah, the sad thing is that in there is still no world where we make the Rose Bowl. In the Reddit world (where every game is flipped), we're in the CCG and get blown out. In the 50-50 reflip that I simulated, a crazy threeway tie is still blocking us from even getting into the CCG.
Great thread. Just a couple of those reversals and we would be singing Wilcox' praises.
I continue to sing his praises. He’s the right man for Cal whether we’re 3-8 or 8-3. Building on defense (which has been consistently good to great) is a long slog, but the only way to build a lasting winning program. Offense is finally gelling. Who would Cal be willing to pay, who would do a better job given the constraints?
If Wilcox could not fix things in years 4 and 5, which are the moment of truth for any head coach, what makes anyone think he will fix things going forward? Certainly a lot of it depends on who leaves - Teves and Brooks so far - and who comes in from the transfer portal. It seems to me that Cal would be willing to pay what they are paying now - $3 million large - and I think they are plenty of proven head coaches from the Mountain West that would bite on that. Or good coordinators. Hell, Joe Moorhead, the OC from Oregon, left to coach the Akron Zips for a lot less.
I think it depends in part on how much fans are truly willing to forgive/give a mulligan for the COVID year. If fans really are willing to forget that year as many Cal fans said, then Wilcox has one year where he took a step back (this year).
Teams like Washington State, UCLA and Utah got a lot better during that COVID year and carried it over into this season. Those that didn't - Washington and USC - have already fired their head coaches. Cal was showing disturbing signs of regression following their bowl win in 2019 and simply carried that regression into this year. So no mulligans, please. You got one year coach.....make it count.
You're definitely right that some teams got better after the 2020 COVID season. But for Cal, it was COVID *combined* with the simultaneous offensive coaching changes—to a more complex, pro-level system—that ground us to a halt for over a year. We only had 4 practices with Musgrave in spring 2020, and basically no normal practices in fall 2020, so the offense wasn't really installed until spring 2021.
The optimists among us think that we ended 2021 where we could have ended 2020 in normal circumstances: slight regression and general ups-and-downs, but some positive developments. So—assuming no coaching changes—the 2022 season will really tell us if we're on a good trajectory or not.
If it takes that long to get the pro-level system installed and operating smoothly, it was probably a mistake. I am not alone in this line of thinking. Maybe it's because Cal does not have the offensive line talent to run it, or the overall speed level required to keep defenses honest. Stanford has run the pro style offense successfully for years, but they had the benefit until recently of a national recruiting base with lots of 4-stars or better manning the O line and more team speed. I don't see a break-through next season, particularly if Cal has to go with a new quarterback.
The Golden Bearcast interview with Ed Quinn was super insightful to me with how defensive he was of Wilcox as far as resolving the “Am or am I not on the Wilcox train?” It brought up the Snyder years and how we had a coach that actually wanted to be here and build something sustainable, and could have if the AD hadn’t run him off. I feel like some up and comer in the Mountain West would use us a jump point for a less complicated environment. Wilcox strikes me as a long term guy that does things the right way and wants to be here. His players love him, and the fact that he hasn’t lost the locker room in the face of so much bullshit this season speaks volumes. I’m not nearly as patient with Musgrave though.
I look more at if he is doing the right things than an arbitrary timetable. If you're eating right and exercising, but the weight just isn't coming off, keep at it. The process will eventually work. If you have a bloated metabolism (bureaucracy), it's tougher, but still doable.
Take away Covid and we'd have beaten Arizona, that's a sixth win. That leaves four one-score games. It's reasonable to assume that you should win half of them, that gives us eight wins. We were an 8-4 team. I'd have been quite pleased with winning eight games in a regular season for the first time since '09 (2009 not 1909).
(BTW, I've looked through the records and this is -- at least in my estimation -- the best five-win season Cal has ever had. Not that it's much consolation.)
We're probably in contention for best 5-win team this year given we have five one-score games that ALL went to losses. Or at least the unluckiest team given that record.
*3-9 Nebraska enters the chat*
They were 0-8 in one-score games, and their one multi-score loss was by 9 to Ohio State.
Re other 5-7 teams, Texas had a better point differential (+50) but had less excuse for losing to Kansas than we did for Arizona, Florida State was probably about at our level, Illinois wasn't much worse, and TCU of course narrowly beat us early in the year.
I think Nebraska ended up 1-8 in conference and scored 7 fewer points overall.
1-8, 239 points scored, 239 points allowed.
I hear you, Oski D., and with great respect, but at the end of the day, it's not an 8 win team...Cal's a 5-win team because it consistently failed to make the plays necessary to win a football game...hibernating the entire 2H v a middle-of-the-pack (no pun intended) Mtn West team; letting Zach Evans go 51 yards up the gut with :18 seconds left in the 1H @ Amon Carter Stadium (STILL shaking my f-ing head); Damien Moore fumbling at the goal line on 1st and goal @UW...Nikko muffing a game-tying TD catch @ Oregon. Musgrave, Chase and the O-line being completely unable to handle pressure in non-competitive losses to Wazzu & UCLA. Having a backup QB that struggled to handle the most basic football plays for the position and being unable to complete a pass v the worst FBS team in the country. Even in a win, another 2H disappearing act v. a completely overmatched USC team.
Here's a question: who was the last player from the offensive side of the ball that is playing on Sundays? In 5 seasons, what offensive players has Wilcox coached (inherited/recruited) that is in the NFL? The only one that jumps out at me is Patrick Mekari, who went undrafted.
The most physically gifted offensive player of the Wilcox era, a local kid no less, saw the writing on the wall and moved to Starkville, MS.
Musgrave runs a complicated, pro-style offense that is built for pro-level athletes. Until Wilcox starts recruiting more talent to Berkeley, the type of talent that can win one-on-one battles on offense, you're gonna struggle to win 50% of your games in a conference that produces NFL players.
Hopefully Wilcox can start getting these types of players, the sooner the better. I really hope he sticks because I think he can get there, but the 2021 team probably finished exactly where they should have.
Bringing Adrian Martinez on board would be a nice start. Hit that transfer portal hard, Bears...there is talent available. Half the Hawaii team is going to be in the portal....get after it...Go Bears!
Interesting and fun to read. Wilcox is fond of saying, "...it's a play here or a play there" from winning. Reality is a bit different, IMO, Cal hasn't reached the consistency and as importantly the domination on offense to win close games. Continuing to rely on a sturdy defense is, ultimately, a losing formula. If Cal can "find" 7 - 10 points more per game to go along w/ the great defense then we are looking at a team that can compete for the conference championship. Alas, those marginal points needed are all too elusive the past 5 years. It's a lot more than just a play or two. Hopefully Wilcox, if he's still around, fixes this issue during the off-season.
Yes, THIS. Great point, GEAT...
Wilcox is absolutely going to be on Oregon's list....just not convinced he'll be anything more than their consolation prize, THO bringing on a newly available Joe Brady in Eugene as OC is a potential game changer and should absolutely concern us.
Hopefully he sticks around.
Meanwhile, Tedford's heading back to Fresno.
Prior to this season, Wilcox's record in one-score games was 10-10 and a lot of that was with Garbers. The team didn't suddenly forget how to win close games, they were mostly just unlucky.
Respectfully, sacman, I just can't get entirely behind the unlucky argument. The blocked punt at their own 15 yard line that took a wonky bounce into no man's land giving Wazzu a 1st down? THAT is unlucky.
Experienced players continuously failing to make plays is not unlucky (Damien Moore fumble @ UW/Nikko td drop @ UO)...letting TCU run up the gut for a 50 yard td with <:20 on the clock in 1H is not unlucky...not having a competent backup QB that can make basic throws is not unlucky...failing to game plan/out-scheme v. an aggressive, blitz heavy D when you struggled with it twice already is not unlucky.
I acknowledge Wilcox is good for the school, and hope he stays put, I really do...I think 2022 can be a pretty solid season, especially given the schedule and the potentially elite young D. But I just can't look at 2021 and say we were 5-7 bc of bad luck.
Go Bears!
One minor correction, Cal won 10 regular season games in 2004.
We went 7-1 in Pac 10 play and 10-1 overall before finishing 10-2 with the Holiday Bowl loss to Texas Tech.
Tomorrow's post: What If... Leland weren't such a big idiot making such big mistakes?
Tomorrow’s post: What If…Cal beats USC in 2004? We play in the National Championship and beat Oklahoma. Tedford signs a lifetime contract and we dominate the Pac 10/12 for decades.
Here is an interesting what if.....What if Cal fans stopped smoking all of that good ganja from the Emerald Triangle and got more realistic about our chances of winning in the Pac-12 North? Naaahh, pot induced delusions are WAY more fun!
Who smokes weed anymore? It’s all about edibles and drinking it.
" I do not entertain hypotheticals. The world itself is vexing enough" :-) Let's get that OL squared away, and we can probably win a few more games in the real world.
Is the off-season live thread for paying subscribers only? Or same bug as the second-half live threads?
I'm able to access it while not logged in. If you're having troubles, take a screenshot and email Rob (as the author) or support+writeforcalifornia(at)substack.com or admin(at)writeforcalifornia.com.
I can access but can’t comment. I’ll grab a screenshot.
Thanks
There is a Football player that CAL needs to recruit. Cathedral Catholic of San Diego RB Lucky Sutton with a performance for the ages :
In the southern championship game he had 436 Rushing Yards and 6 Rushing TD’s along with 1 Receiving TD. You can see Lucky in the California State Championship this Friday or Saturday. Anyone who has contact with recruiting team they need to talk to this amazing kid.
Other What Ifs....sorry I was too busy yesterday...
What if Cal had beat UCLA in 1975? Cal would have been the outright Pac-8 champion and gone to the Rose Bowl. And won, of course. Coach Mike White would have stayed on for at least another five years, and would take Cal to the Rose Bowl two more times. Cal fans would get more accustomed to recruiting "violations". Cal itself would become even more legendary as the pinnacle of both academic and football excellence...
What if Cal had run up the score against Southern Miss, scoring twice more to make the final score 40-16. Mack Brown would go around saying Texas was the more sportsmanlike team, having only beaten A&M 26-16. And Cal fans would feel guilty. But no one else would care about that, and Cal would go to the Rose Bowl and win! Aaron Rodgers would be drafted high in the first round and go to the 49ers. The Bay Area culture would help sustain his understanding of science....