Cal laughs at Fate, God, and Washington State in OT win

You thought another buzzer beater three would break them?

When you follow a team that has a bunch of close, painful defeats, it’s hard not to let defeatism creep into your head.

When Cal started the game strong with increased physicality on defense and decisive movement against Wazzu’s zone, I didn’t allow myself to get excited.

When a prolonged 2nd half drought turned a 9 point lead into a 7 point deficit, I started planning a dour column about trying to parse the distinction between bad and unlucky.

And when Wazzu’s Myles Rice hit a contested three buzzer beater to tie the game, all of us expected yet another heartbreaker loss in the extra frame.

But the thing about us fans is that our thoughts and emotions are inherently irrational, all the more so during games. Cal’s players took a buzzer beater gut punch on Thursday and came out focused and intense two days later. They weathered that shooting cold stretch in time to fight their way back late. They brushed off Rice’s shot to open OT on a 6-0 run and closed out the game calmly.

Now, thankfully, we can update the Pac-12 Network graphic:

(hat tip to @vw_chen on twitter for that one)

Any so just two days after losing a game with a 93% maximum win expectancy, Cal did this:

Teams don’t surmount 7 point deficits with two minutes left all that often. They probably do so less often when they’re coming off of a buzzer beater loss. These Bears did it anyway. 4% chance to win? Cashed out.

And appropriately, when the game finally ended, it was Jaylon Tyson who had the ball in his hands, running toward the baseline with his fist pumping, high-fiving Cal fans who made plenty of noise down the stretch.

Tyson has been a revelation this season, and he was the dominant force in this game, particularly late. 30 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assist, 2 blocks, 1 steal, constantly in and around the ball, constantly making plays. Earlier in the year, injuries forced Cal to run the offense through his ball handling and the results were hit and miss, as he struggled to adapt to a more ball dominant role. Now, Cal runs the offense through Tyson because he’s maybe the best offensive player in this conference, and utterly comfortable making the reads and decisions in Madsen’s offense.

I don’t think that Tyson is a serious contender for Pac-12 player of the year even though he may well win the scoring title, but he is absolutely an all conference 1st team performer. He will be Cal’s first since Ivan Rabb in 2017, and his contributions to the Cal MBB turnaround will last long in our fan memory.

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Cal won this game by shot volume, which is to say that they turned the ball over less often, pulled down more rebounds, and as a result took way more shots than Washington State. In this particular game, Cal was plus 6 on turnovers and plus 8 on offensive rebounds, totaling to +14 shot equivalents. Cal has been pretty consistently at least even in shot equivalents and often ahead in conference play - it was the primary driver in wins over UCLA and Colorado.

The optimist would say that this is a very good base to build on, as rebounding and turnovers tend to be more consistent skills. A pessimist might say that Cal’s struggles to hit shots and stop opponents from hitting shots is a bigger concern.

More than anything else, it makes Cal hard to pull away from. There’s a reason that Cal has only been beaten comprehensively once, by top 5 Arizona. The Bears are too good on the glass and too secure with the ball (1st in conference play in turnover percentage!) to fall behind by much.

It’s a statistical mix that makes for a bunch of close, stressful games. So grab your heart medication, lay off the caffeine, and prepare yourself for more end game insanity.

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Notes and Errata:

• The play that Cal called to free up Jaylon Tyson for an easy layup to take the lead in the final minute of regulation was glorious - a staggered double screen that took out both the primary AND help defender. A good sign that Madsen and his staff know how to manage their calls out of timeouts.

• Even granting that Cal has been very ball secure lately and Wazzu isn’t a pressure defense, only coughing up 4 turnovers in a 73 possession OT game is insanely impressive.

• I really liked what Cal got from Gus Larson in 7 minutes. He was aggressive on his contests (two blocks!) and calm on his finish after drawing his defender in the air.

• I really enjoy watching the way Fardaws positions himself to get rebounds. Obviously his length helps, but he’s much more about using his size and instinct to get boards. Reminds me of Talia Caldwell from Cal’s WBB final four squad.

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Cal is now 3-5 in conference play, with seven of those games decided by single digits and most of them coming down to the final minute.

After the game, Madsen took to the mic to thank Cal fans for their noise and support. And next week, the opponent is Stanford, at Haas Pavilion.

Meaning that I have a request of you, Cal fans:

Friday night, 7:00. I have it on good authority that a contingent from the football team will be in attendance. Let’s show up big, and show up loud, and carry this team to a win over Stanford.