Oct 23, 2023Liked by Avinash Kunnath, Piotr Le, Berkelium97, BentPawn, TD_24
Such a GREAT informative article: full of sobering dismal facts and then reversing the narrative riveting us with hope for future ecstatic joy. I BELIEVE ! Yea Verily! Rejoice Bears! Mark Madsen CAN do it !
I’ve talked a lot about this on various social media and in the WFC discord - but I think Coach Madsen has done an amazing job with all the parts of running a modern college basketball program that haven’t had to do with on-court production. It’s pretty low hanging fruit, but it’s stuff that Jones and Fox, not only ignored, but were outright hostile to.
The players have been in the community (Oakland’s first Fridays, taking a hiking trip to Muir Woods) showing up at campus events, super visible on social media. Every interview Madsen has talked about the strong tradition of Cal and East Bay hoops - Cal fans are easy to flatter, and yet our previous coaches didn’t do it. He’s had Jerome Randle and Leon Powe and Richard Midgely back in the house and we can assume many other former Cal players will be coming through.
If he’s been as thoughtful and smart about these little things - I’m pretty comfortable that he’ll be able to produce a winning product on the court as well. I think aiming for .500 and an NIT bid (my expectations) is aiming LOW for him and his energy and excitement.
I agree with your comments about how visible the team and Mark Madsen have been. So many posts with Madsen at a football game, on Sproul Plaza, and many others. I love how uniquely engaged he is for his team to the wide populous of the Cal students. I have so many fond memories going to the BB games when a student and an alum and watching the likes of Jason Kidd, KJ, Shareef Abdul-Rahim, Tony Gonzales, etc! Purely loved it! Go Bears!
My lasting memory of Mark Fox is during a game last year ( I can't the opponent, I was a shell of a fan supporting the players through a dark time ), when the other team attempted a PnR and a Cal player poked it away. Joel Brown got a hold of the ball and started a fast break to the basket with Grant opposite and only one defender between them and the rim. I figured Joel would either A) draw the defender then lob it toev Grant or B) the defender would slack towards Newell and Joel would drive to the basket. BUT NO! Out of the corner of my I see Fox holding up both hands for them to slow down, Joel obliges. I don't remember how the possession ended. I was too busy beating my beanie into my seat and saying all my four-letter words. Everything Madsen has said and shown on social media tells me that moment won't ever happen. An exciting brand of ball that players want to be a part of and fans want to come and see. I have pretty low expectations for this year, but I've never been this giddy about a season before. Hope to see Haas packed in a couple Mondays!
“The leap from ‘worst team in program history’ to, I don’t know, dark horse NCAA at-large candidate is gigantic. It’s probably not possible.”
Why not? Do you have an actual reason?
As you say, this team is a complete blank slate. What happened last year should have no relevance to this year. So why does last years record matter at all?
It’s an entire new roster and new coaching staff. And there’s an increase of support from the Athletic department and donors.
Sure, a turnaround from worst to bubble team may be unprecedented, but that’s not a reason for it to be impossible since the new transfer rules and NIL have changed what is now possible.
So again. Why not? I’m not saying you’re necessarily wrong. I’m just curious for your reason why.
I'll weigh in with a couple reasons for some controlled enthusiasm. I do not speak for Nick.
1. While our roster talent has vastly improved, we still are behind UCLA, USC and the other top tier programs in the conference. We could be a much better team overall but still finish like 7-13 in conference.
2. Roster and lineup management. The roster has 9-10 players who should see at least some playing time. It may take a bit for the team to mesh on the floor, and the staff to determine real-time adjustments as dictated by gameflow.
3. Tyson, our most talented player, has not cleared waivers yet. No update from NCAA on status.
I think 7-8 nonconf wins and 7-10 conf wins is reasonable expectation, putting us right around .500 for the season. To me, it will be interesting to see how this season plays out and lays the foundation for the next few years as we move to ACC.
All valid points, BP, especially the Tyson issue. Just a counter…the transfer portal has changed everything, for all teams. There’s so much turnover on every roster that all teams need to mesh.
Sure, we’ll never know, but Mark Madsen and THIS coaching staff WITH last year’s team likely wins 10-12 games, even with the injuries. Better scheme, better coaching, better everything. Through that lense, 20 wins and a visit to the bubble for THIS roster, provided Tyson is eligible, is not a nearly as huge a leap as one might think given 3-29.
While UCLA, SC and Arizona belong above the rest, there’s plenty of questions about all the other squads.
Those are all great reasons to temper expectations. But I'm asking why Nick doesn't think its possible for this team to be on the fringes of making the tourney. Nick details in his post that this team is a blank slate and that no one really knows what to expect.
I'm all for people tempering expectations, if that's your thing. If I had to predict, I think this team is probably an NIT team. But if everything breaks right, I don't understand why anyone would say this team's ceiling cannot be reaching the tourney. Because again, what happened last year has very little relevance to this year. We are talking about two completely different teams. Its like saying since Oregon St was bad last year, we need to temper expectations for what UW can do this year. That's the biggest point I'm trying to make. If you want to temper expectations fine. But don't do so just because Fox ran an awful program LAST YEAR
I read it to mean not that he thinks it's impossible, just that he thinks it's *very unlikely*, because there simply isn't a lot of precedent for a team being that bad getting turned around to NCAA Tourney caliber so quickly. And frankly, it's hard to argue with the notion that it's very unlikely. It could happen, and certainly a new coach, the transfer portal and NIL funds can help facilitate that, but it's not reasonable for us fans to have that expectation. If Coach Madsen and the team have that as their expectation in Year 1, great! I will love watching them work towards it.
So I don't think it was intended to be a definitive statement on the team's ceiling, as much as noting just how tall an order it would be to go from 3-29 to assembling a whole new team that develops and gels well enough, soon enough, to reach the Tourney in Year 1.
A fair question. What I will grant is that in basketball it IS possible for a team to recruit their way to massive, massive improvement. It's just that the type of teams with the money and historical cachet attract that level of talent AND that volume of talent (your Dukes, Arizonas, Kentuckys) aren't in a situation where they're that bad. Like, the worst Kentucky team of recent vintage was still on the NCAA bubble.
And there are transition costs here - building chemistry and understanding on a roster that turns over so much is hard. It takes great coaching and insane talent to make these kinds of roster turnovers work, which is why even the most talented, stocked-with-one-and-done-talent teams, have-the-best coaches teams still occasionally implode.
So I won't say it's impossible, but it's a leap that's pretty much never happened and doesn't strike me as particularly likely in Cal's specific case. Hope I'm wrong, and boy does Madsen seem like the kind of guy to just will it into existence.
I'm excited to finally come off my self-imposed Cal Men's Basketball boycott now that Fox has been fired and a reasonable coach has been hired. Hope is indeed a nice thing to have again. We'll see if the Bears can validate some of those hopes over the course of the season :)
If Cal BB can distract me from Cal Football, it will be a Golden Bear miracle. Wait, I already stopped paying attention to the fooseball... More importantly, this article got me pumping some sunshine!
The reality check is going to sting but it will be so nice to see us playing like a Power 5 team in an arena with the energy to match, even if we end up being a below average P5 this year. In Mad Dog we trust.
Watched Cal’s Men’s Basketball practice last week. This years team is night and day better.
Here’s the new Cal basketball roster:
Fardaws Aimaq is 6’11” was injured at Texas Tech last year. Led the nation in rebounding two years ago with 15 rebounds/game. MVP of Utah Valley’s conference with 18 PPg. Fardaws can play with any big man in the PAC 12 and will have numerous double/doubles.
Jaylon Tyson 6’7” starter at Texas Tech. Shot 40% on threes and was 8th in conference rebounding. Was best all around player at practice and may lead the team in scoring.
Keonte Kennedy 6’5” starter at Memphis. 3rd best scorer with 48% field goal, 9 points per game. He was sick and missed practice.
Jalen Cone 5’11” led Northern AZ with 18 points game and was all league. He’s a spark plug and leader.
Returners:
Devin Askew 6’3” led Cal with 16 points game. Made some awesome assists during practice.
Grant Newell 6’8” was starter and all PAC 12 Freshman. Looks hugely improved and confident.
Jalen Celestine 6’7” was Cal’s best shooter last year. Good defender.
It’s going to be fun to go to Cal basketball games again and if everyone stays healthy, Cal is going to surprise everyone with their success.
A Jorge type player on this team would definitely peak my interest. We would maybe not beat the top teams in the conference, but would enjoy watching someone who cold frustrate them and make them earn it...
Such a GREAT informative article: full of sobering dismal facts and then reversing the narrative riveting us with hope for future ecstatic joy. I BELIEVE ! Yea Verily! Rejoice Bears! Mark Madsen CAN do it !
Mom is in the Haas!!
I’ve talked a lot about this on various social media and in the WFC discord - but I think Coach Madsen has done an amazing job with all the parts of running a modern college basketball program that haven’t had to do with on-court production. It’s pretty low hanging fruit, but it’s stuff that Jones and Fox, not only ignored, but were outright hostile to.
The players have been in the community (Oakland’s first Fridays, taking a hiking trip to Muir Woods) showing up at campus events, super visible on social media. Every interview Madsen has talked about the strong tradition of Cal and East Bay hoops - Cal fans are easy to flatter, and yet our previous coaches didn’t do it. He’s had Jerome Randle and Leon Powe and Richard Midgely back in the house and we can assume many other former Cal players will be coming through.
If he’s been as thoughtful and smart about these little things - I’m pretty comfortable that he’ll be able to produce a winning product on the court as well. I think aiming for .500 and an NIT bid (my expectations) is aiming LOW for him and his energy and excitement.
I agree with your comments about how visible the team and Mark Madsen have been. So many posts with Madsen at a football game, on Sproul Plaza, and many others. I love how uniquely engaged he is for his team to the wide populous of the Cal students. I have so many fond memories going to the BB games when a student and an alum and watching the likes of Jason Kidd, KJ, Shareef Abdul-Rahim, Tony Gonzales, etc! Purely loved it! Go Bears!
My lasting memory of Mark Fox is during a game last year ( I can't the opponent, I was a shell of a fan supporting the players through a dark time ), when the other team attempted a PnR and a Cal player poked it away. Joel Brown got a hold of the ball and started a fast break to the basket with Grant opposite and only one defender between them and the rim. I figured Joel would either A) draw the defender then lob it toev Grant or B) the defender would slack towards Newell and Joel would drive to the basket. BUT NO! Out of the corner of my I see Fox holding up both hands for them to slow down, Joel obliges. I don't remember how the possession ended. I was too busy beating my beanie into my seat and saying all my four-letter words. Everything Madsen has said and shown on social media tells me that moment won't ever happen. An exciting brand of ball that players want to be a part of and fans want to come and see. I have pretty low expectations for this year, but I've never been this giddy about a season before. Hope to see Haas packed in a couple Mondays!
“The leap from ‘worst team in program history’ to, I don’t know, dark horse NCAA at-large candidate is gigantic. It’s probably not possible.”
Why not? Do you have an actual reason?
As you say, this team is a complete blank slate. What happened last year should have no relevance to this year. So why does last years record matter at all?
It’s an entire new roster and new coaching staff. And there’s an increase of support from the Athletic department and donors.
Sure, a turnaround from worst to bubble team may be unprecedented, but that’s not a reason for it to be impossible since the new transfer rules and NIL have changed what is now possible.
So again. Why not? I’m not saying you’re necessarily wrong. I’m just curious for your reason why.
I'll weigh in with a couple reasons for some controlled enthusiasm. I do not speak for Nick.
1. While our roster talent has vastly improved, we still are behind UCLA, USC and the other top tier programs in the conference. We could be a much better team overall but still finish like 7-13 in conference.
2. Roster and lineup management. The roster has 9-10 players who should see at least some playing time. It may take a bit for the team to mesh on the floor, and the staff to determine real-time adjustments as dictated by gameflow.
3. Tyson, our most talented player, has not cleared waivers yet. No update from NCAA on status.
I think 7-8 nonconf wins and 7-10 conf wins is reasonable expectation, putting us right around .500 for the season. To me, it will be interesting to see how this season plays out and lays the foundation for the next few years as we move to ACC.
All valid points, BP, especially the Tyson issue. Just a counter…the transfer portal has changed everything, for all teams. There’s so much turnover on every roster that all teams need to mesh.
Sure, we’ll never know, but Mark Madsen and THIS coaching staff WITH last year’s team likely wins 10-12 games, even with the injuries. Better scheme, better coaching, better everything. Through that lense, 20 wins and a visit to the bubble for THIS roster, provided Tyson is eligible, is not a nearly as huge a leap as one might think given 3-29.
While UCLA, SC and Arizona belong above the rest, there’s plenty of questions about all the other squads.
Those are all great reasons to temper expectations. But I'm asking why Nick doesn't think its possible for this team to be on the fringes of making the tourney. Nick details in his post that this team is a blank slate and that no one really knows what to expect.
I'm all for people tempering expectations, if that's your thing. If I had to predict, I think this team is probably an NIT team. But if everything breaks right, I don't understand why anyone would say this team's ceiling cannot be reaching the tourney. Because again, what happened last year has very little relevance to this year. We are talking about two completely different teams. Its like saying since Oregon St was bad last year, we need to temper expectations for what UW can do this year. That's the biggest point I'm trying to make. If you want to temper expectations fine. But don't do so just because Fox ran an awful program LAST YEAR
I read it to mean not that he thinks it's impossible, just that he thinks it's *very unlikely*, because there simply isn't a lot of precedent for a team being that bad getting turned around to NCAA Tourney caliber so quickly. And frankly, it's hard to argue with the notion that it's very unlikely. It could happen, and certainly a new coach, the transfer portal and NIL funds can help facilitate that, but it's not reasonable for us fans to have that expectation. If Coach Madsen and the team have that as their expectation in Year 1, great! I will love watching them work towards it.
So I don't think it was intended to be a definitive statement on the team's ceiling, as much as noting just how tall an order it would be to go from 3-29 to assembling a whole new team that develops and gels well enough, soon enough, to reach the Tourney in Year 1.
A fair question. What I will grant is that in basketball it IS possible for a team to recruit their way to massive, massive improvement. It's just that the type of teams with the money and historical cachet attract that level of talent AND that volume of talent (your Dukes, Arizonas, Kentuckys) aren't in a situation where they're that bad. Like, the worst Kentucky team of recent vintage was still on the NCAA bubble.
And there are transition costs here - building chemistry and understanding on a roster that turns over so much is hard. It takes great coaching and insane talent to make these kinds of roster turnovers work, which is why even the most talented, stocked-with-one-and-done-talent teams, have-the-best coaches teams still occasionally implode.
So I won't say it's impossible, but it's a leap that's pretty much never happened and doesn't strike me as particularly likely in Cal's specific case. Hope I'm wrong, and boy does Madsen seem like the kind of guy to just will it into existence.
F*ck it. Elite Eight - let's go!
I'm excited to finally come off my self-imposed Cal Men's Basketball boycott now that Fox has been fired and a reasonable coach has been hired. Hope is indeed a nice thing to have again. We'll see if the Bears can validate some of those hopes over the course of the season :)
I feel this so hard! .500 would be a resounding success and a huge revival for some of my favorite college memories.
If Cal BB can distract me from Cal Football, it will be a Golden Bear miracle. Wait, I already stopped paying attention to the fooseball... More importantly, this article got me pumping some sunshine!
GO BEARS!
I want to belieeeeeve!
The reality check is going to sting but it will be so nice to see us playing like a Power 5 team in an arena with the energy to match, even if we end up being a below average P5 this year. In Mad Dog we trust.
Watched Cal’s Men’s Basketball practice last week. This years team is night and day better.
Here’s the new Cal basketball roster:
Fardaws Aimaq is 6’11” was injured at Texas Tech last year. Led the nation in rebounding two years ago with 15 rebounds/game. MVP of Utah Valley’s conference with 18 PPg. Fardaws can play with any big man in the PAC 12 and will have numerous double/doubles.
Jaylon Tyson 6’7” starter at Texas Tech. Shot 40% on threes and was 8th in conference rebounding. Was best all around player at practice and may lead the team in scoring.
Keonte Kennedy 6’5” starter at Memphis. 3rd best scorer with 48% field goal, 9 points per game. He was sick and missed practice.
Jalen Cone 5’11” led Northern AZ with 18 points game and was all league. He’s a spark plug and leader.
Returners:
Devin Askew 6’3” led Cal with 16 points game. Made some awesome assists during practice.
Grant Newell 6’8” was starter and all PAC 12 Freshman. Looks hugely improved and confident.
Jalen Celestine 6’7” was Cal’s best shooter last year. Good defender.
It’s going to be fun to go to Cal basketball games again and if everyone stays healthy, Cal is going to surprise everyone with their success.
Last season was probably the most apathetic I've ever been about any sport with any team. You can really only go up from there.
Thanks Nick...great stuff.
There's no reason this team can not Dance, crazy as that may seem.
Both sober and salubrious. Painful truth. Well done. I'm exactly the fan they need. I'm exactly the fan they lost. Go Bears, goldarnit.
A Jorge type player on this team would definitely peak my interest. We would maybe not beat the top teams in the conference, but would enjoy watching someone who cold frustrate them and make them earn it...
Vlad the Defender
*pique