Cal Men's Basketball Takes on the St. Thomas Tommies

On comparisons, and what to watch for on opening night

Photo courtesy Cal Athletics.

Comparisons are unfair.

To try to analyze this year’s team and weigh it against last year’s roster is a problematic exercise. It is not fair to the players or coaches from last year, who gave their utmost effort during the challenging season. It is not fair to the incoming team and staff, as they do not need the burden from us of any expectations we put on them. There are plenty of internal expectations that are sure to drive this team. Any comparisons require us to dredge up memories from last year, something all of us would rather move on from. So this season, I am going to do my best to avoid comparing this team to last year’s team. I prefer to focus on the current team and how the program will grow under Coach Madsen as it wraps up Pac-12 play and transitions to the ACC.

However, I will compare the fan and viewing experience.

Basketball can be a beautiful sport. The Golden State Warriors at times play the platonic ideal (to me) of basketball. All players in motion, multiple scoring options, no player is irrelevant to the constant action. Efficient offensive spacing and pacing give the players the opportunity make correct decisions on how to maximize the scoring opportunity. When executed well, it is exciting to watch. It is aesthetically pleasing. It is fun and rewarding for the players.

Last year’s team was not interesting to watch. The offense focused too much on predictable half court sets, and the defense was adequate but not enough to cause havoc. They were bad, and boring.

Any program change of such magnitude brings optimism simply because so much is unknown. I think the optimism is justified, as on paper this team is dynamic and filled with potential. Fardaws Aimaq and Grant Newell give you frontcourt options who are just as comfortable playing outside. Jalen Celestine, Keonte Kennedy and Devin Askew give you multiple attacking options from the wing spots. Jalen Cone can create his own shots or focus on penetration and ball distribution. In addition to superior individual defenders in Kennedy and Newell, there is plenty of length at all positions to cause problems on defense. There is enough depth that the rotation could legitimately go 10 deep. In Aimaq’s comments from a recent media session, he mentioned “A lot of the stuff we do is very NBA-like…I grab a defensive rebound, I have the greenlight to bring it up the floor.”

I think they will take a few games to figure out the optimal rotation, especially if Tyson is ineligible for the year. I want to watch a few games before making any conference and overall season predictions.

Regardless of actual win-loss record, I expect this team to be interesting and entertaining. This will be a better fan and viewing experience, and I hope Haas Pavilion grows into a powerful home court advantage as the fan base gets energized and returns in full force.

About The Opponent

The St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies are members of the Summit Conference. They finished 19-15 last year, 9-9 in league. The Tommies are in their 3rd year in Division 1, having been a DIII powerhouse for most of the 2010’s. They were DIII National Champions in 2014 and 2016. Coach Johnny Tauer has a career .746 win percentage (247-84), and has exceeded expectations since joining the Summit Conference in 2021. In Mark Madsen’s comments from the October 27th media session, he mentioned “Saint Thomas is a great team. We intentionally scheduled a difficult opponent knowing we want to push ourselves.” While part of this is standard coach hyperbole, the Tommies definitely have the ability to pull off the upset.

St. Thomas had 2 all conference players on their team last year. One of them transferred to Virginia, while senior F Parker Bjorklund returns and anchors an experienced lineup. The 6’7” Bjorklund plays primarily inside, averaging 15 points and 6 rebounds per game.

Since moving to Division 1, this will be the 3rd game the Tommies have played against P5 opponents. Last year, the Tommies lost to Creighton by 12 and lost to Utah by 29.

From what film I could find from last year, the Tommies run alot of motion, starting with all 5 players stationed outside the 3 point line. Multiple players will then cut across the lane, probing for an opening for the ball handler. This requires discipline on defense, making sure you stick to your assignment or have clean switches. I expect the length of the Bears will be put to good use. On defense, the Tommies played primarily man-to-man, with some zone thrown in.

What To Watch For on the Cal Side

I don’t expect any grand insight into the arc of the season. This game is a starting point, and I will watch for how some of this evolves over the first few weeks. Here’s what I will be watching.

1. Starting Lineup and Rotation

   Fardaws Aimaq and Keonte Kennedy are the only guaranteed starters, though I expect Grant Newell and Devin Askew to be auto-starters as well. Most likely, Jalen Cone starts at PG, moving Askew to off-guard. Or, does Celestine start and Cone comes off the bench? Beyond those 6, how many minutes are given to the freshman duo of Devin Curtis and Rodney Brown? Does Vladimir Pavlovic getting meaningful minutes at the point? How do Gus Larson and ND Okafor split big-man duties?

2. The return of Jalen Celestine

   I was a Celestine admirer 2 years ago. He has a well rounded game and has the ability to play multiple spots. Word out of camp is he is fully healthy after missing all of last season following knee surgery. Does he start out slow, and build up to meaningful minutes? Or is he a major contributor early on?

3. Point Guard Minutes

   How will the PG minutes be distributed amongst Askew, Cone and Pavlovic? How important is this given the mantra of “whoever gets the rebound can bring the ball up”?

4. How They Defend Bjorklund

   Bjorklund is the one player who can go incendiary and give Cal major headaches. He can shoot from outside, but prefers a game based on cutting and finishing in the mid-range. Does Madsen stick lockdown defender Kennedy on him, or do they play more zone and collapse on any penetration?

5. The Energy in Haas

   The most important item I will be monitoring. How does the student body turn out? Will the fans be jaded based on history and remain quiet? Will the Golden Bears play with a high level of energy and intensity and grab everyone’s attention?

Let me know in the comments if there’s anything else you’ll be watching for. I’ll be live tweeting during the game over at @WriteForCalLive.