Right now, they’re 15-5, 3-4 in the ACC with solid wins over fUCLA on a neutral court, home v UNC, and @ Furd….per Lunardi, as of Tuesday 1/27 Bracketology they are the 8th team out currently…he’s been very slow to recognize the Bears, as other NCAAT prognosticators have been higher on them, FWIW. Even CBS, notoriously down on the Bears, has them in a first 4 game .
Sweet spot for legitimate at-large contention IMO is to get to 10-8 IN the ACC. 9-9 will likely put us on the wrong side of the bubble but still in consideration.
@ FSU - with no Dort, let’s just call this an L (15-6, 3-5, and a 2nd Q2 L - not ideal). A W would be fantastic, but down our only consistent ACC caliber-big it’s going to be a challenge..
@ MIA L (15-7, 3-6 - likely off the bubble)
v GA TECH W (16-7, 4-6)
v CLEM W (Becoming a must-win 17-7, 5-6)
@ SYR L (17-8, 5-7)
@ BC W (Must win - Tournament teams don’t lose at this school) (18-8, 6-7)
v Furd W (Must win) (19-8, 7-7)
v SMU W (Must win) (20-8, 8-7)
v PITT W (21-8, 9-7)
@ GA TECH W (Must win - can’t lose at GA TECH late in the year) (22-8, 10-7)
@ WFU L (Tough place to play) (22-9, 10-8)
ACCT - Going to have to get the 1st round W to feel safe bc an L would likely be another bad L at the wrong time….then a 2nd round game, maybe an L…2 wins there and getting to the Quarters would be really nice. But let’s say 1-1….that’s a final record of 23-10…probably not a lock, and maybe in the play-in game, but…..
Highlights how important this game today could be!
I think it's likely that a 10-8 conference record puts Cal in the top half of the conference records and thus nets us a bye for the first round of the ACCT. One less pitfall to avoid.
Win as many games as possible, of course, but right now I think Cal gets in the tournament if we win the rest of our Q3 games and lose no more than one Q2.
If Cal finishes the ACC tournament with a 24-9 record and 4-5 Q1 wins, I think we're in for sure. 23-10 is borderline and invites scrutiny into our weak noncon SOS. 22-11 is definitely out.
22-11 is 10-8 in the ACC, or 9-9 with a solid neutral court ACCT win. That MAY be out, but with respect GAndB, it is not likely to be definitely out. They’ll be Bubble.
Only way they are definitely out is with a sub-.500 ACC record…
Fair, there's a chance 22-11 would get in but I'd still be pretty pessimistic. Teams that get in with a record like that either have a grueling schedule or a Q1A win or two to offset the weaker parts of their schedules. Cal has neither and, barring a huge ACCT upset and semifinals appearance, won't have the opportunity to get them. 22-11 would be something like a 4-7 Q1 and 2-4 Q2 record and I just don't think that makes the tournament, particularly with a sub-.500 Q2 record.
If they can somehow escape FSU tonight with a win even without Dort, it will certainly get more interesting.
4-5 front half would be as good as one could have realistically hoped for in a slate that included 4 top 20 teams (LOU, UVA, DUKE, UNC) and roadies at 3 legit NCAAT-type teams (Va Tech, Furd, Miami).
No Dort tonight...gonna be tough to get out of Tallahassee with a W...other guys need to step up and bring this game home.
This would be a 2nd Quad 2 loss and would hurt the rankings. But after the UNC and 'Furd wins, it's not totally devastating. Given the difficulty of the starting schedule, 3-6 1H was realistic and kept an at-large bid firmly in play. But hopefully they can get it tonight, even without Dort, as 4-5 would be fantastic.
Curious why Clemson doesn’t qualify as a Q1 opponent? 17-4 and 7-1 in conference. They lost their marquee games vs. Bama and BYU, but the BYU game was close and both were away from home.
Clemson's actually borderline- they're #30 in the NET right now and would just qualify as a Q1 opponent. As to why their NET is lower than their AP ranking, it's because they're 1-3 in Q1 games.
Their schedule overall has been as light as ours. And they have really benefited from a very favorable early conference schedule. But they still feel like a Q1 opponent to me.
I think our roster may be a bit too thin down the stretch to make it. But it's a HUGE step that we're even on the bubble.
That being said, we play the games for a reason! Let's do it!
All depends on Dort. If he is lost for any considerable amount of time, it’s the NIT.
Right now, they’re 15-5, 3-4 in the ACC with solid wins over fUCLA on a neutral court, home v UNC, and @ Furd….per Lunardi, as of Tuesday 1/27 Bracketology they are the 8th team out currently…he’s been very slow to recognize the Bears, as other NCAAT prognosticators have been higher on them, FWIW. Even CBS, notoriously down on the Bears, has them in a first 4 game .
Sweet spot for legitimate at-large contention IMO is to get to 10-8 IN the ACC. 9-9 will likely put us on the wrong side of the bubble but still in consideration.
@ FSU - with no Dort, let’s just call this an L (15-6, 3-5, and a 2nd Q2 L - not ideal). A W would be fantastic, but down our only consistent ACC caliber-big it’s going to be a challenge..
@ MIA L (15-7, 3-6 - likely off the bubble)
v GA TECH W (16-7, 4-6)
v CLEM W (Becoming a must-win 17-7, 5-6)
@ SYR L (17-8, 5-7)
@ BC W (Must win - Tournament teams don’t lose at this school) (18-8, 6-7)
v Furd W (Must win) (19-8, 7-7)
v SMU W (Must win) (20-8, 8-7)
v PITT W (21-8, 9-7)
@ GA TECH W (Must win - can’t lose at GA TECH late in the year) (22-8, 10-7)
@ WFU L (Tough place to play) (22-9, 10-8)
ACCT - Going to have to get the 1st round W to feel safe bc an L would likely be another bad L at the wrong time….then a 2nd round game, maybe an L…2 wins there and getting to the Quarters would be really nice. But let’s say 1-1….that’s a final record of 23-10…probably not a lock, and maybe in the play-in game, but…..
Highlights how important this game today could be!
I think it's likely that a 10-8 conference record puts Cal in the top half of the conference records and thus nets us a bye for the first round of the ACCT. One less pitfall to avoid.
Avoiding bad losses becomes paramount. I mean, ideally you win @FSU, @GA TECH, @ BC…those.
The good thing about the ACC is there are fewer possibilities for bad L’s (like @ Oregon State or Wazzu were back in the day).
Win as many games as possible, of course, but right now I think Cal gets in the tournament if we win the rest of our Q3 games and lose no more than one Q2.
If Cal finishes the ACC tournament with a 24-9 record and 4-5 Q1 wins, I think we're in for sure. 23-10 is borderline and invites scrutiny into our weak noncon SOS. 22-11 is definitely out.
22-11 is 10-8 in the ACC, or 9-9 with a solid neutral court ACCT win. That MAY be out, but with respect GAndB, it is not likely to be definitely out. They’ll be Bubble.
Only way they are definitely out is with a sub-.500 ACC record…
Fair, there's a chance 22-11 would get in but I'd still be pretty pessimistic. Teams that get in with a record like that either have a grueling schedule or a Q1A win or two to offset the weaker parts of their schedules. Cal has neither and, barring a huge ACCT upset and semifinals appearance, won't have the opportunity to get them. 22-11 would be something like a 4-7 Q1 and 2-4 Q2 record and I just don't think that makes the tournament, particularly with a sub-.500 Q2 record.
If they can somehow escape FSU tonight with a win even without Dort, it will certainly get more interesting.
4-5 front half would be as good as one could have realistically hoped for in a slate that included 4 top 20 teams (LOU, UVA, DUKE, UNC) and roadies at 3 legit NCAAT-type teams (Va Tech, Furd, Miami).
No Dort tonight...gonna be tough to get out of Tallahassee with a W...other guys need to step up and bring this game home.
This would be a 2nd Quad 2 loss and would hurt the rankings. But after the UNC and 'Furd wins, it's not totally devastating. Given the difficulty of the starting schedule, 3-6 1H was realistic and kept an at-large bid firmly in play. But hopefully they can get it tonight, even without Dort, as 4-5 would be fantastic.
3.5 point underdogs.
Mark Madsen has taken a giant leap this year in his coaching acumen. Let’s finish strong!!
Curious why Clemson doesn’t qualify as a Q1 opponent? 17-4 and 7-1 in conference. They lost their marquee games vs. Bama and BYU, but the BYU game was close and both were away from home.
Clemson's actually borderline- they're #30 in the NET right now and would just qualify as a Q1 opponent. As to why their NET is lower than their AP ranking, it's because they're 1-3 in Q1 games.
Btw, Cal's a Q1 opponent when we play at home 😉
Their schedule overall has been as light as ours. And they have really benefited from a very favorable early conference schedule. But they still feel like a Q1 opponent to me.