TT Carr had a bit of a breakout performance. That put back was sick. And Pippen is becoming an all around beast (Can you imagine this guy in a year or two if he keeps progressing?).
Team survives trap game during dead week against a better than advertised Dominican team (that has mostly been blowing out its peers).
This is a really good Cal team that wills itself to victory. I worry about some of the ACC teams with elite size, but I think this team will win at least 20 games and will be tournament bound. Would be nice to get one more person to emerge off the bench.
It’s definitely the best Cal team that we’ve seen since Cuonzo was in town. And the W’s v. fUCLA and Utah put us in a spot to at least make a run at the Dance. Which is great. Love your optimism, but 10-games in there’s still way too many red flags to be confident this team can win 8-9 games in a deep ACC. UNC, Duke, L’ville, SMU, Clemson are all legit, ‘Furd is well-coached; UVA/Va Tech, Cuse, Miami, FSU, Wake, Ga Tech all legitimate MBB programs, ND has an AA in Markus Burton…yikes. Have to bring it defensive.y every night. The key will be getting Rytis back.
As for the guy to emerge - who is that person going to be? Best chance is TT, and he’s wildly inconsistent as a true FR but has shown some flashes. He’s gotta be that guy. It’s certainly not Ilic, Dorsey, or Campbell. We’re 10 games in, and you know what you have there - steady mid-major guys who are basically overmatched offensively at this level and below-average defensively, per a number of various metrics. The combined +/- for the 3 was -26 last night v a D2 team. That’s horrid. Turns out this roster really misses Jovani Ruff.
Unfortunately, our lack of a legit P4 big man means every night in league play is gonna be a toss up, regardless of opponent. We’re going to need to execute at a much higher level on both sides of the ball come ACC play, and it’s tough to see that happening with the bench giving them so little.
The keys to Dancing imo are:
1. Rytis returns. If he doesn’t, this team’s ceiling is NIT, which would still be fantastic;
2. TT steps up and stabilizes the 2nd unit;
3. Maybe Sammie Yeanay can get healthy and give you some minutes by President’s Day…
4. They bring the defensive intensity from the opening tip. A 1H like last night v an ACC club and you’re down 20, like they were at KState.
Madsen did warn us at the start of the season that he'd play around a lot before the conference schedule starts and that certain matches would have much smaller rosters. I'm assuming DJ doesn't play against like UNC and Duke, considering we've already seen how bad of a match-up he is against P4 guards. I'm assuming we're saving our starters' legs for the second half of the season.
With TT stepping up and looking like a viable backup guard, Petraitus and Dorsey getting healthy, etc., we can do fine in the ACC. We likely won't beat the Quad 1 teams because of our deficiencies at the 4 / 5 slots, but I don't think 20 wins is out of the question. I think NIT is much more likely than March Madness this year.
The bigger question is how do you get those students' butts in the seats. I understand our scheduling considering we're in a heavy rebuild, but man we need more interesting games in the non-conference.
Agreed. I think NIT is much more likely, and that would be f-ing great. A nice stepping stone, postseason basketball in Berkeley of any kind. My more critical eye of player evaluation is only through the lens of the NCAA Tournament, which in mid-December is still on the table, unlike the past 8 years.
As for butts in seats, absolutely. UCLA coming Thanksgiving week, in San Francisco, did them no favors, though totally understandable that would be the way it all went down..
The national narrative that Cal has no fans and donors is incredibly tired and false, at least for football, but unfortunately the donor part is accurate in MBB given how incompetent leadership pretty much killed the program. Knowlton was hostile to donors and season ticket holders - the amount of damage that clown did to the MBB program can not be understated.
Honestly, I am pretty surprised at how well this roster is playing, given Cal simply did not have the funds to pay market value this past offseason for legit P4 players. Frontline scorers were getting $4M+ as schools emptied out their collectives in anticipation of the House Settlement, a figure which is patently absurd. It honestly gives me a ton more confidence in Madsen’s X’s and O’s coaching ability and the chances he builds this program back up.
This home schedule is pretty weak, but honestly we were losing these games in years past….the only thing that will fix it is winning, IMO. Utah should have been better attended - instead Haas was a ghost town with a similar crowd to UOP. So right now, guess you gotta just start stacking the wins, which are just more important, especially when you have home games v ACC blue bloods coming up. A good showing in even one of those games will do wonders.
In the absence of landing a Jason Kidd- level recruit, I think right now the best you can do is win, which will lead to season ticket holders returning and will eventually get students back out.
We can hope. But they have not shown it at this level.
Even at Campbell in the Coastal Conference, Dorsey was not a big scorer as a catch and shoot guy with limited ability to create. Based on what we’ve seen, tough to see him giving them any kind of offensive bump in limited minutes at the P4 level, especially now that he’s recovering from a calf injury that’s hurting him on the defensive end, which was heretofore his strength.
Campbell OTOH is what he is - this is it. You’re looking at it: a low-efficiency scorer who kills the offensive flow because he does not share the ball, and a guy who struggles to defend at the point of attack, which as a guard is troublesome. Toss in 1-6 from the FT line Sat and a bonehead T yesterday, and he’s hurting the ball club more than helping it. As he did all last year.
The scoring bump I was hoping for off the bench was Milos Ilic, whose ‘24 season at Loyola MD inspired some confidence that he could pump in 5-7 ppg, hit some FTs and grab 4-5 boards. But that’s simply not happening, as he looks completely lost out there in all facets of the game, other than passing.
Now, I’m looking at all of this critically only through the lens of making the Tournament. Based on the past decade of MBB, tho, this team is light years better than any other we’ve had and should hopefully qualify for the NIT, which is tangible progress and would be great.
I think the transition up leagues as a big is likely harder than as a guard. The talent jump just in terms of straight physicality seems much more difficult.
TT Carr makes me wonder why we started DJ the last couple games instead. Just to get him warmed up post injury? Would have rather given the freshman more reps.
As long we win out the non conference, do not lose at home on any gimmie games and at least split on the road against the weaker teams in the ACC, yes. And that has to be the expectation now. The UCLA upset was the key to getting us in a position to be a legit tourney team
Sitting here today, hard to say. Georgia Tech? Pitt? Stanford BETTER be a gimmie game at home! Point is that if we don’t win these games we will not get to 20 wins (unless we pick up upset wins).
My buddy @Newellbany and I broke this pathway down after the Utah game.
Get to 12-1. Then for ACC play - let’s say you lose home games to top-10 L’ville, UNC, and Duke…a win in ANY of these would be massive, but let’s say you’re 0-3.
Ya gotta beat ND, Ga Tech, Clemson, and ‘Furd at home (4-3).
Can you get a W at UVA or Va Tech? (5-4).
Can you get a W in the northeast, at ‘Cuse, or more likely BC (6-5).
Can you beat SMU and Pitt at Haas? (8-5)
Can you win even just 1 at FSU, GA TECH, ‘Furd, Wake, or Miami? (9-9).
Can you win a 1st round game on a neutral floor v a similarly matched team in the ACC Tourney?
Not entirely out of the question, and THAT’S bubble on Selection Sunday.
And that would be awesome…don’t get me wrong. After the 3-29, Madsen year 1 was competence, year 2 was competitive, year 3 contending - tangible progress that hopefully gets the season ticket #’s up after Knowlton killed them, and the donor $$$’s to start coming in again.
I just wish we had an X-factor on the horizon, so Rytis’ return and TT need to be it.
But those Braun/Monty/Cuonzo years where they were seemingly playing for their Tourney lives every game was awesome…I want that feeling back!!!
Like what I see in Carr, and I agree Ilic, Dorsey, and Campbell have not looked good. They need Rytis back, and is there anyone else on the roster with some upside? Yeanay?
I thought the first half defense was better than Madsen said - we forced 8 turnovers/live ball steals; we were just very bad at turning those into points. We did a better job of that in the second half.
As for the down assists - difficult to get assists when people miss shots, we scored a lot on second shots going away.
TT Carr had a bit of a breakout performance. That put back was sick. And Pippen is becoming an all around beast (Can you imagine this guy in a year or two if he keeps progressing?).
Team survives trap game during dead week against a better than advertised Dominican team (that has mostly been blowing out its peers).
This is a really good Cal team that wills itself to victory. I worry about some of the ACC teams with elite size, but I think this team will win at least 20 games and will be tournament bound. Would be nice to get one more person to emerge off the bench.
It’s definitely the best Cal team that we’ve seen since Cuonzo was in town. And the W’s v. fUCLA and Utah put us in a spot to at least make a run at the Dance. Which is great. Love your optimism, but 10-games in there’s still way too many red flags to be confident this team can win 8-9 games in a deep ACC. UNC, Duke, L’ville, SMU, Clemson are all legit, ‘Furd is well-coached; UVA/Va Tech, Cuse, Miami, FSU, Wake, Ga Tech all legitimate MBB programs, ND has an AA in Markus Burton…yikes. Have to bring it defensive.y every night. The key will be getting Rytis back.
As for the guy to emerge - who is that person going to be? Best chance is TT, and he’s wildly inconsistent as a true FR but has shown some flashes. He’s gotta be that guy. It’s certainly not Ilic, Dorsey, or Campbell. We’re 10 games in, and you know what you have there - steady mid-major guys who are basically overmatched offensively at this level and below-average defensively, per a number of various metrics. The combined +/- for the 3 was -26 last night v a D2 team. That’s horrid. Turns out this roster really misses Jovani Ruff.
Unfortunately, our lack of a legit P4 big man means every night in league play is gonna be a toss up, regardless of opponent. We’re going to need to execute at a much higher level on both sides of the ball come ACC play, and it’s tough to see that happening with the bench giving them so little.
The keys to Dancing imo are:
1. Rytis returns. If he doesn’t, this team’s ceiling is NIT, which would still be fantastic;
2. TT steps up and stabilizes the 2nd unit;
3. Maybe Sammie Yeanay can get healthy and give you some minutes by President’s Day…
4. They bring the defensive intensity from the opening tip. A 1H like last night v an ACC club and you’re down 20, like they were at KState.
Madsen did warn us at the start of the season that he'd play around a lot before the conference schedule starts and that certain matches would have much smaller rosters. I'm assuming DJ doesn't play against like UNC and Duke, considering we've already seen how bad of a match-up he is against P4 guards. I'm assuming we're saving our starters' legs for the second half of the season.
With TT stepping up and looking like a viable backup guard, Petraitus and Dorsey getting healthy, etc., we can do fine in the ACC. We likely won't beat the Quad 1 teams because of our deficiencies at the 4 / 5 slots, but I don't think 20 wins is out of the question. I think NIT is much more likely than March Madness this year.
The bigger question is how do you get those students' butts in the seats. I understand our scheduling considering we're in a heavy rebuild, but man we need more interesting games in the non-conference.
Agreed. I think NIT is much more likely, and that would be f-ing great. A nice stepping stone, postseason basketball in Berkeley of any kind. My more critical eye of player evaluation is only through the lens of the NCAA Tournament, which in mid-December is still on the table, unlike the past 8 years.
As for butts in seats, absolutely. UCLA coming Thanksgiving week, in San Francisco, did them no favors, though totally understandable that would be the way it all went down..
The national narrative that Cal has no fans and donors is incredibly tired and false, at least for football, but unfortunately the donor part is accurate in MBB given how incompetent leadership pretty much killed the program. Knowlton was hostile to donors and season ticket holders - the amount of damage that clown did to the MBB program can not be understated.
Honestly, I am pretty surprised at how well this roster is playing, given Cal simply did not have the funds to pay market value this past offseason for legit P4 players. Frontline scorers were getting $4M+ as schools emptied out their collectives in anticipation of the House Settlement, a figure which is patently absurd. It honestly gives me a ton more confidence in Madsen’s X’s and O’s coaching ability and the chances he builds this program back up.
This home schedule is pretty weak, but honestly we were losing these games in years past….the only thing that will fix it is winning, IMO. Utah should have been better attended - instead Haas was a ghost town with a similar crowd to UOP. So right now, guess you gotta just start stacking the wins, which are just more important, especially when you have home games v ACC blue bloods coming up. A good showing in even one of those games will do wonders.
In the absence of landing a Jason Kidd- level recruit, I think right now the best you can do is win, which will lead to season ticket holders returning and will eventually get students back out.
Yup, need to keep winning to sell out during the UNC and Duke games and set the stage for ourselves.
I think we can get more offense out of Dorsey and Campbell. Both off to rocky starts but have more ability than they have shown, thus far.
We can hope. But they have not shown it at this level.
Even at Campbell in the Coastal Conference, Dorsey was not a big scorer as a catch and shoot guy with limited ability to create. Based on what we’ve seen, tough to see him giving them any kind of offensive bump in limited minutes at the P4 level, especially now that he’s recovering from a calf injury that’s hurting him on the defensive end, which was heretofore his strength.
Campbell OTOH is what he is - this is it. You’re looking at it: a low-efficiency scorer who kills the offensive flow because he does not share the ball, and a guy who struggles to defend at the point of attack, which as a guard is troublesome. Toss in 1-6 from the FT line Sat and a bonehead T yesterday, and he’s hurting the ball club more than helping it. As he did all last year.
The scoring bump I was hoping for off the bench was Milos Ilic, whose ‘24 season at Loyola MD inspired some confidence that he could pump in 5-7 ppg, hit some FTs and grab 4-5 boards. But that’s simply not happening, as he looks completely lost out there in all facets of the game, other than passing.
Now, I’m looking at all of this critically only through the lens of making the Tournament. Based on the past decade of MBB, tho, this team is light years better than any other we’ve had and should hopefully qualify for the NIT, which is tangible progress and would be great.
I think the transition up leagues as a big is likely harder than as a guard. The talent jump just in terms of straight physicality seems much more difficult.
TT Carr makes me wonder why we started DJ the last couple games instead. Just to get him warmed up post injury? Would have rather given the freshman more reps.
We should revel for the next 8 days. Tosh! And Cal BB off to a good start. May we please slay the Warriors in the tropics and keep the momentum.
Can we be a 20 win team this year? Seems possible.
As long we win out the non conference, do not lose at home on any gimmie games and at least split on the road against the weaker teams in the ACC, yes. And that has to be the expectation now. The UCLA upset was the key to getting us in a position to be a legit tourney team
I mean, are there any gimme games in the ACC?
Yes, just not for us.
Fear you’re right. Either way, tho, the rebuild is on target…
Next step - crowds and donors, Knowlton killed both.
Sitting here today, hard to say. Georgia Tech? Pitt? Stanford BETTER be a gimmie game at home! Point is that if we don’t win these games we will not get to 20 wins (unless we pick up upset wins).
My buddy @Newellbany and I broke this pathway down after the Utah game.
Get to 12-1. Then for ACC play - let’s say you lose home games to top-10 L’ville, UNC, and Duke…a win in ANY of these would be massive, but let’s say you’re 0-3.
Ya gotta beat ND, Ga Tech, Clemson, and ‘Furd at home (4-3).
Can you get a W at UVA or Va Tech? (5-4).
Can you get a W in the northeast, at ‘Cuse, or more likely BC (6-5).
Can you beat SMU and Pitt at Haas? (8-5)
Can you win even just 1 at FSU, GA TECH, ‘Furd, Wake, or Miami? (9-9).
Can you win a 1st round game on a neutral floor v a similarly matched team in the ACC Tourney?
Not entirely out of the question, and THAT’S bubble on Selection Sunday.
Let’s get it!
Yeah seems like we could be a bubble team - with a punchers chance of making it in. But I agree with you that NIT more likely
And that would be awesome…don’t get me wrong. After the 3-29, Madsen year 1 was competence, year 2 was competitive, year 3 contending - tangible progress that hopefully gets the season ticket #’s up after Knowlton killed them, and the donor $$$’s to start coming in again.
I just wish we had an X-factor on the horizon, so Rytis’ return and TT need to be it.
But those Braun/Monty/Cuonzo years where they were seemingly playing for their Tourney lives every game was awesome…I want that feeling back!!!
Great list! LFG Bears!
Not a great look in the first half but at least Mark Madsen is making the necessary adjustments.
Like what I see in Carr, and I agree Ilic, Dorsey, and Campbell have not looked good. They need Rytis back, and is there anyone else on the roster with some upside? Yeanay?
I thought the first half defense was better than Madsen said - we forced 8 turnovers/live ball steals; we were just very bad at turning those into points. We did a better job of that in the second half.
As for the down assists - difficult to get assists when people miss shots, we scored a lot on second shots going away.
Eight assists (Ames 5, Pippen 3) for the entire team on twenty-nine makes. Yikes.
Is Rytis hurt, I haven't seen him in the box score lately? Thx.
Nursing a lower leg injury. The goal is to have him ready for ACC play.
Thanks Don!