Cal Men's Swimming and Diving goes for an NCAA three-peat this week

Arizona State is the favorite on paper but championships are won in the pool

Mar 27, 2024

Cal Men's Swimming and Diving are going for a three-peat at the NCAA Championships at the IU Natatorium in Indianapolis, Indiana this week (Wednesday through Saturday). Unlike Cal Men's Water Polo who successfully achieved this feat last semester, Men's Swimming did not return the entire squad. Also unlike Cal Men's Crew who will be going for their three-peat bid later this year, Men's Swimming does not have a completely new squad due to graduations and Olympic sabbatical years. Instead, Cal Men's Swimming and Diving returned enough guys to be a serious contender again but also lost enough points to be considered underdogs to Pac-12 rival Arizona State for the team championship.

Like many recent NCAA Championships that came down to Cal vs. Texas, the 2024 NCAA will almost surely be a two-team race between Cal and ASU, last year’s team runner-ups. Against Texas, diving was a disadvantage for the Bears. Against ASU, Cal Diving might just be the difference to tip the meet in their favor in the ideal scenario.

Of course, Arizona State has never won the NCAA Men's Swimming and Diving Championship in their history. Dave Durden's squad at Cal does have that experience with eight NCAA Championships, including six under the guidance of Durden. Durden’s California Golden Bears have been notorious for dropping some serious time at the NCAA. This is particularly true in an Olympic year like this one, where the elite Cal swimmers balance their training between Olympic races (in long course meters, LCM, pools) and NCAA races (in short course yards, SCY, pools). Cal Bears does enough to qualify for the NCAA, but do not show their true top speed until this week.

In a similar strategy to 2016 that resulted in three “Calympians” that summer, a large contingent of key Cal swimmers did not go to the Pac-12 Championship three weeks ago, but went to a TYR Pro Swim Series event at Westmont, Illinois instead. The five Cal Bears who raced at the LCM event were Bjorn Seeliger, Jack Alexy, Gabriel Jett, Destin Lasco, and Dare Rose. Seeliger, who also went to the delayed 2021 Tokyo Olympic games, has already qualified for the Paris Olympics this summer as a member of the Swedish team. The American quartet still got to earn their Paris spot at the US Olympic Trials in June to be first-time Olympians. Jack Alexy won the 100m Free event at Westmont.

The most recent Inside the Lair article defended this somewhat controversial strategic move. Cal Olympic great Ryan Murphy, who still trains in Berkeley in the Cal Training Group, is quoted there.

"The way Dave approaches the balance between the Olympics and NCAAs is a testament to his leadership," four-time Olympic gold medalist and 12-time NCAA champion Ryan Murphy said. "He sets aside some personal gain – like winning a Pac-12 title – and instead focuses on his athletes' personal goals."

The Cal Training Group includes two USA swimming greats who have never raced for Cal: backstroker Hunter Armstrong and sprinter Brooks Curry. Curry technically still got one year of eligibility but opted to not use it to join the Cal Bears in 2024. Nonetheless, the current Cal Bears regularly race against some of the best in the world while training in Berkeley. This is one of the main draws for top recruits to come to Cal.

Without those key guys for Cal, the ASU Sun Devils won their second consecutive NCAA title unopposed, breaking several records along the way including Hubert Kos breaking Ryan Murphy’s 200y Back record. ASU has 12 top seeds in the 18 swimming events at the NCAA. In addition to the star power who might win races, ASU has also developed a lot of depth as shown at the Pac-12 Championships. That ASU depth will determine if the Sun Devils will cruise to a team championship and historically dominate this NCAA.

In 2023, Cal defeated ASU by the final score of 480 to 430. Golden Bears graduated about 200 of those points and do not have clear sources of replacement for them. Scoring the psych sheet has ASU at 538, being way ahead of Florida at 443 and Cal at 298. Cal should easily beat that projection but will it be enough?

If any team can stop Arizona State this week, it will be Cal (somewhat sorry to ignore Florida completely in this preview). Cal Bears have a narrow path toward a three-peat. A big part of this scenario requires beating ASU in about half of those events, including the relays that count as double, where they are the favorites on the psych sheet. Cal needs those bonus points for winning events. The somewhat plausible events where Cal may surprise include 200y Medley Relay, 200y Free Relay, 200y IM (Destin Lasco), 50y Free (Bjorn Seeliger, Jack Alexy), 200y Free (Gabriel Jett), 100y Back (Lasco), 100y Free (Seeliger, Alexy), 200y Back (Lasco), 200y Fly (Dare Rose). Cal has only one top seed and that is Pac-12 champ Liam Bell in 100y Breast. Matthew Jensen won the Pac-12 title in 100y Free but will face stiffer competitions from his teammates at this meet.

Cal also needs all 16 team members, 14 of them swimmers, to contribute by earning scoring positions in the evenings with great morning prelim swims.

Here is the list of all 16 Cal Bears and their events.

Jack Alexy – 50 free, 100 free, 200 free
Liam Bell – 100 breast
Trent Frandson – 200 free
Robin Hanson- 200 free
Matthew Jensen – 100 free, 100 breast
Gabriel Jett – 200 free, 500 free, 200 fly
Keaton Jones – 500 free, 200 back
Tyler Kopp – 400 IM
Destin Lasco – 200 IM, 100 back, 200 back
Colby Mefford – 200 back
Dare Rose – 100 fly, 200 fly
Bjorn Seeliger – 50 free, 100 free, 100 back
Jacob Soderlund – 100 breast, 200 breast
Sebastian Somerset – 200 back
Joshua Thai – 1-meter, 3-meter, platform
Geoffrey Vavitsas – 3-meter, platform

Keaton Jones is the lone freshman swimmer to make it. Cal took a hit last fall when freshman Aaron Shackell decided to train with his club team for this Olympic cycle. All indications are that Shackell will be back in Berkeley next year and may not have used up a full year of eligibility for racing in a couple of fall events. Diver Geoffrey Vavitsas is also a freshman.

One should note that two of the Cal representatives are divers. By the weird math used by the NCAA to count the number of athletes per team, divers only count as halves each. Cal only uses 15 of the 18 max spots. Cal had some swimmers who just fell short of qualifying for the NCAA, but one can argue that the coaching staff did not optimize the roster this year nor made any last-minute 2024 late additions after losing Shackell. Two Cal guys, Ziyad Saleem and Hank Rivers, are the first and fifth guys to miss out on qualifying for the NCA, respectively.

ASU will have 18 Swimmers at the NCAA, tied with NC State for the most. French superstar Leon Marchand might be unbeatable in the three individual events he chooses between 500y Free (he set the NCAA record at the Pac-12), 200y Free, 200y Breast, and 400y IM. Based on the psych sheet, it would appear that Marchand will race in 500y Free on Thursday, 400y IM on Friday, and 200y Breast on Saturday. ASU also has the top seed time in 1650y Free from Zalan Sarkany, 200y Fly from Ilya Kharun, and 100y Back, 200y IM, and 200y Back from Hubert Kos. ASU also has the top seed times in 200y Medley, 400y Free, 800y Free, and 400y Medley relays, where the relays count for twice the points. ASU head coach Bob Bowman, perhaps best known as the coach for USA Olympic superstar Michael Phelps, has a very international squad at ASU. Sarkany and Kos are Hungarian while Kharun represents Canada internationally. Unlike Cal, ASU has been going fast all year long.

All sessions will be streamed on ESPN+. Prelims will start at 7 a.m. PT (10 a.m. ET) and finals will begin at 3 p.m. PT (6 p.m. ET) each day. Wednesday will only feature a finals session.

Live results: Swim Meet Results

A more complete recap of the NCAA Women’s Swimming and Diving Championships will likely be included in another post. Cal women finished 11th overall, missing out on the top 10 due to a costly DQ in 200y Free Relay. Individually, Isabelle Stadden finished 2nd and 4th in 100y Back and 200y Back, respectively. Rachel Klinker also got a 3rd place finish in 200y Fly. Several Cal Bears did a great job of morning swims to make it to the B-Finals and earn points but had nothing left. Without much resistance, Virginia four-peated at the NCAA women’s meet.

Here is hoping for great Cal Bears performances to make this meet interesting. Another major weapon for Cal is its vocal alumni base which will be at the stands of this meet. The Cal Swimming alumni make it a point to travel to the NCAA every year and dress up in bear costumes. They are more vocal than most other groups and will encourage the current Bears to do their best. ASU simply does not have that tradition, yet.

ROLL ON YOU BEARS!

Rose Bowl Oski

Mar 27

"Without those key guys for Cal, the ASU Sun Devils won their second consecutive NCAA title unopposed..." I think you mean to write that ASU won their second consecutive Pac12 title.

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Swimmie1

Apr 3

Your decision to ignore Florida was prescient. It made no sense at the time, given FL was set to win 2d handily off the psych sheets, but you were right.

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