Cal Football 'Cals Around' and Finds Out Against NC State

It feels as if it's time for change.

As much as I’d like to copy and paste the postgame Pitt column, I have to become a coroner and make some declarations after the monstrosity against NC State.

Some fans were already out on the regime, others were on the fence, and a dwindling portion clung on to hope. After the collapse against the Wolfpack on homecoming, the outlook for this chapter of Cal Football is clear.

The Justin Wilcox era in Berkeley functionally feels over.

I don’t issue statements like that lightly. Cal fans have been waiting year after year for this coaching staff to kick down the door and showcase to the nation that the Golden Bears can compete in the upper echelon of Power 4 conference football. Yet, time in and time out, the Bears find ways to lose and effectively kill any momentum that begins to stir on and off the field.

Enough on that for now. Let’s rehash how Cal got to this point against NC State.

Weird gremlins on 3rd and 4th down defense

Cal’s defense has been herculean for the better part of this season. In losses against Miami and arguably against NC State, this side of the football has been out there in long spurts and wearing down the depth of the team. Despite that, one consistent set of issues has been the 3rd and 4th down defense, where there is something painstakingly small missing that prevents the Bears from getting off the field. Below is a list of conversions from opposing offenses this season

UC Davis: 4/13 3rd down, 0/4 4th down

Auburn: 5/10 3rd down, 0/1 4th down

SDSU: 5/16 3rd down, 2/4 4th down

FSU: 7/17 3rd down, 1/2 4th down

Miami: 7/16 3rd down, 3/4 4th down

Pitt: 1/12 3rd down, 2/2 4th down

NC State: 8/17 3rd down, 2/2 4th down

The Bears are giving up just under 35% of their 3rd downs and just under 50% of their 4th downs, both good enough for top 50 in each category.

But something is just…..off. Too many times, offenses have gotten those conversions exactly when they needed them, resulting in the dominoes continuing to fall by the end of the fourth quarter. As much as the defense is not to blame for the bulk of the problems, it is a nagging feature that rears its ugly head at the wrong time.

Injury talk is a symptom of the disease

Yes, its fair to say that Cal doesn’t have its compliment of weapons with no Tobias Merriweather, Kyion Grayes, Sioape Vatikani, and of course Jaydn Ott. However, considering the foundational issues of the 2024 team, does adding those players into the fold at this juncture automatically correlate to flipping the coin in close games?

It doesn’t.

Cal still needs to find ways to win, make the play when the going gets tough, and come out ahead on the other side. Not having certain personnel available doesn’t excuse all the screen calls, the ability to sustain drives, and avoid shooting yourself in the foot repeatedly.

If the Bears want to reclaim their season, they need to recalibrate everything that they’ve been taught about their fundamentals. From false starts, to blocking, and procedural mishaps on special teams, the ability to clean things up goes a long way in compartmentalizing what this 2024 team is.

The talk

If Pitt didn’t put the Justin Wilcox era mentally in the coffin, the loss against NC State felt like the proverbial nail. The infuriating part within these optics is that the program has never cratered to the point of needing change. In the same vein, it has never consistently punched above its weight even with the injection of talent this season.

In year eight with Justin Wilcox, the identity of the program is one that’s engrained with not only losing close games, but important games. It’s untenable to continue down this road and expect anything to change on this front given the scores of evidence over the years.

Something simply needs to change. Players have come and gone, talent levels changed, and yet the same errors continue to flare up like a rash. Cal fans are done with it and checked out, which is the ultimate damnation of any era.

The homecoming crowd was sparse, barely eclipsing the UC Davis crowd (35K vs 32K). Walking out of the North Tunnel, I overheard someone say “it’s homecoming, aren’t we supposed to win?” Regardless of how you feel about that statement, it’s another game that the Bears were favored to win, should have won convincingly, and ultimately feel flat on their face, sending a dwindling crowd home more apathetic than they were a week prior.

Fernando Mendoza and Teddye Buchanan trotted to the media podium postgame and owned up to things that weren’t their fault. Truthfully, it’s tiring having to see them come up to the microphone and seeing them have to answer for the same themes that have constrained the team over recent weeks.

Conclusion

Cal is not a tarmac-style program. While I certainly expect a shakeup at some point within the next two months, I don’t have the financial numbers in front of me and a list of the administrative loops that have to be cleared. If the trends continue as they did today, the athletic department will have to answer for what becomes an emptier California Memorial Stadium, hurting pockets both in the short and long-term.

The fans are out. Not even wins against Stanford can save the perception of what the Justin Wilcox era is anymore. It certainly feels like time for changes.

Now do I trust people in charge like Jim Knowlton to make the right decision if that situation arises? Not a chance. I wouldn’t rule out that this may be one of the first critical decisions that Chancellor Rich Lyons possibly inserts his influence into.

Ultimately, it’s a sobering reality to realize that’s it might be time to break up. I will forever go to bat for Justin Wilcox the person, but it appears he will not be the person to lead the California Golden Bears back to consistent success.