Wow! I have to admit that I didn't see this coming but it does confirm what I suspect is going to happen in the next 3-7 years: The Pac will return in some form but without FUCLA and U$C. Re-alignment will continue but I have a feeling that top teams in the Big-10, SEC and some independents (like Notre Dame and Florida State) will form some kind of college football super-league and then middle-tier teams (like us, the Furd, OSU, Wazzu, etc.) will return to their more traditional regional rivalries for less money but more stability. Thoughts, Cal fans?
The carbon footprint of the ACC membership for pacific coast schools is not something to brag about. Eventually I expect some power move by the top dawgs of the SEC, Big Ten, and others to form a superconference. It will be approx 24-28 schools and it won't include Cal/Stanford. But it will likely include UCLA, USC, Wqshington, and Oregon. What will drive it will be revenues.
Well sure, it's no secret that Clemson and Miami would also love to be free agents, but why spend legal money now? Better to just let FSU spend their money obtaining a favorable judgement that others could adopt essentially for free.
So many of those Twitter guys are just BSing it. That Big 12 account has been a joke (and was the one I saw saying other acc schools are looking to bail)
1. The Regents better make UCLA pay us lots of money.
2. This is definitely short-term pain. But it may help us long term because it's a possible destination for our next conference. There will likely be major changes in the 2030s when the current media deals expire. It might be a split similar to the 1A, 1AA split. Or something that spins off football into a bona fide NFL minor league. The media revenue bubble feels like it's about to burst and Cal can't/won't keep up financially with the superpower programs.
Much like the MLB and NBA, I'm not sure any part of college football could ever spin into a bona fide minor league without divorcing itself from higher education institutions entirely. It will be interesting (probably not in a good way) to see where all this goes and which programs profit by realignment in the long run, and which ones may regret it. God I wish we had a chancellor and AD who knew how to put their pant on. So, so frustrating to have poor leadership now of all times.
Indeed, the "scholar-athlete" has been at least sham-adjacent. Maybe schools will just pay players and offer them admission with free tuition at a later date (if they don't make it pro or after finishing their career)? I dunno, that's just not a world that Cal will be a part of.
But, yeah, our leadership sucks so badly that Furd has to bail us out.
No, it's karma. OSU and Wazzu had the fewest and most limited options of anyone in the Pac-12. Cal and Stanford could have stayed to help rebuild the conference. I submit joining the ACC could turn out to be a Pyrrhic victory. It may still turn out it would have been a better option to stay in the Pac-4. But neither Cal nor Stanford has the courage or the inclination to make the best of a bad situation. Joining the ACC is not as good an option as it seemed in August. That conference could very well come apart at the seams.
That’s awesome, they deserve the money. I wish Cal and Furd would’ve stayed with them to be the Pac4, and then expanded back to 8 or 10 or 12 teams in future years. Of course the big question is what kind of TV money could they have gotten down the road?
I was originally in favor of staying in the PAC-X, but I will admit that it will be nice to be competing in a P5 conference the next few years rather than going through the purgatory that WSU/OSU will be facing.
But it is also very likely that going to the ACC will end up being the worse financial choice. We don't reach a full revenue share until a few years before the GOR expires. And each year that passes, the buyout for FSU and others gets cheaper. If FSU and a few others get out, there is a very real chance that the next ACC media deal will only be marginally better than what a PAC-2/MWC conference can get. And if the ACC falls apart, there is a chance we end up back in the PAC-2/MWC, and we may even be forced to take a partial share to make that jump.
Also, I am reading online that ESPN is not required to renew the media deal in 2027. So we might find ourselves in a situation where our media rights are locked up until 2036 with no media deal in hand. Part of me thinks FSU might be saber rattling as a way to get leverage for a more performance oriented deal if the 2027 renewal falls through. Imagine the Apple deal, but subscriptions are tagged to individual schools and revenue is divied up accordingly. They could potentially get SEC levels of revenue, while schools like us would likely see a huge cut.
The original sin was the fact that the Pac 12 network never aligned with either ESPN or Fox...all the money woes flow from there. Now that ship has sailed and but I don't think the imperatives to jump would have been there had we a top tier deal...remember the first couple of years...you couldn't even find the games, let alone poor promotion, production values and low revenues...cooked the goose.
Yes, even the SEC did not build its network apart from the great media oligarchies. Shame, shame, shame on P12.
Almost makes me sympathetic to Leisure Suit Larry, except for the general suspicion that P12 network was a self-serving move that greased his own palm.
It still pisses me off to think that Kliavkoff kept waiting instead of being proactive. He obviously was not aware of what was going on with the sports networks, which makes me wander why he even had the job. There is a good chance of just UCLA stayed in the PAC the we might have received a deal of $40m+ per school because we kept the LA market. This is just a little below what they will net out playing in the BIG10 after travel and Calimony. And, they are going to get their asses handed to them in the BIG10. Then you have to consider how fucked it is for all the other student athletes that will ned to travel. There were a lot of PAC leaders AWOL during this debacle.
In back-to-back hiring cycles, the incompetent P12 leaders hired chumps with zero experience in collegiate athletics administration. That has consequences.
Mountain West deal is $4M/school. Given current market conditions, maybe $10-15M per school per year?
It definitely feels like a bubble is bursting. If Apple and Amazon had done their homework earlier and became viable alternatives to the major networks, they could have stabilized mid-tier teams (lower P5, upper G5 programs). Maybe they'll play a role in the next round in the 2030s.
I meant it less about the technology and more about expanding the pie and breaking the Fox/ESPN near-oligopoly. An Apple or Amazon entry would be actual new broadcast money entering without financial ties to traditional media. Kind of like going full EV instead of hybrid.
Another example of why College Football has imploded, has become virtually meaningless other than a minor league feeder program for the NFL
Wow! I have to admit that I didn't see this coming but it does confirm what I suspect is going to happen in the next 3-7 years: The Pac will return in some form but without FUCLA and U$C. Re-alignment will continue but I have a feeling that top teams in the Big-10, SEC and some independents (like Notre Dame and Florida State) will form some kind of college football super-league and then middle-tier teams (like us, the Furd, OSU, Wazzu, etc.) will return to their more traditional regional rivalries for less money but more stability. Thoughts, Cal fans?
The carbon footprint of the ACC membership for pacific coast schools is not something to brag about. Eventually I expect some power move by the top dawgs of the SEC, Big Ten, and others to form a superconference. It will be approx 24-28 schools and it won't include Cal/Stanford. But it will likely include UCLA, USC, Wqshington, and Oregon. What will drive it will be revenues.
Obviously just rumor, but I saw on Reddit more ACC schools want to file suit with Florida state. If the ACC blows up I don’t think Cal has any choice.
Well sure, it's no secret that Clemson and Miami would also love to be free agents, but why spend legal money now? Better to just let FSU spend their money obtaining a favorable judgement that others could adopt essentially for free.
So many of those Twitter guys are just BSing it. That Big 12 account has been a joke (and was the one I saw saying other acc schools are looking to bail)
Good on them.
So we have to pay when we leave a crumbling conference and give up a share of $ when we join another crumbling conference.
And Calimoney is as real as the easter bunny and Santa Claus.
Great job JK! 👍🏻
🤬
1. The Regents better make UCLA pay us lots of money.
2. This is definitely short-term pain. But it may help us long term because it's a possible destination for our next conference. There will likely be major changes in the 2030s when the current media deals expire. It might be a split similar to the 1A, 1AA split. Or something that spins off football into a bona fide NFL minor league. The media revenue bubble feels like it's about to burst and Cal can't/won't keep up financially with the superpower programs.
Much like the MLB and NBA, I'm not sure any part of college football could ever spin into a bona fide minor league without divorcing itself from higher education institutions entirely. It will be interesting (probably not in a good way) to see where all this goes and which programs profit by realignment in the long run, and which ones may regret it. God I wish we had a chancellor and AD who knew how to put their pant on. So, so frustrating to have poor leadership now of all times.
Indeed, the "scholar-athlete" has been at least sham-adjacent. Maybe schools will just pay players and offer them admission with free tuition at a later date (if they don't make it pro or after finishing their career)? I dunno, that's just not a world that Cal will be a part of.
But, yeah, our leadership sucks so badly that Furd has to bail us out.
By then the college football clubs ought to all be in control of their own media destinies with very little middlemen shaving off pieces of the pie.
Which too is a terrifying thought if you consider the legacy of athletics leadership at Cal.
It's bullshit that we and furd are on the hook for this. SC and UCLA should pay most, and the other six the balance.
No, it's karma. OSU and Wazzu had the fewest and most limited options of anyone in the Pac-12. Cal and Stanford could have stayed to help rebuild the conference. I submit joining the ACC could turn out to be a Pyrrhic victory. It may still turn out it would have been a better option to stay in the Pac-4. But neither Cal nor Stanford has the courage or the inclination to make the best of a bad situation. Joining the ACC is not as good an option as it seemed in August. That conference could very well come apart at the seams.
That’s awesome, they deserve the money. I wish Cal and Furd would’ve stayed with them to be the Pac4, and then expanded back to 8 or 10 or 12 teams in future years. Of course the big question is what kind of TV money could they have gotten down the road?
I was originally in favor of staying in the PAC-X, but I will admit that it will be nice to be competing in a P5 conference the next few years rather than going through the purgatory that WSU/OSU will be facing.
But it is also very likely that going to the ACC will end up being the worse financial choice. We don't reach a full revenue share until a few years before the GOR expires. And each year that passes, the buyout for FSU and others gets cheaper. If FSU and a few others get out, there is a very real chance that the next ACC media deal will only be marginally better than what a PAC-2/MWC conference can get. And if the ACC falls apart, there is a chance we end up back in the PAC-2/MWC, and we may even be forced to take a partial share to make that jump.
Also, I am reading online that ESPN is not required to renew the media deal in 2027. So we might find ourselves in a situation where our media rights are locked up until 2036 with no media deal in hand. Part of me thinks FSU might be saber rattling as a way to get leverage for a more performance oriented deal if the 2027 renewal falls through. Imagine the Apple deal, but subscriptions are tagged to individual schools and revenue is divied up accordingly. They could potentially get SEC levels of revenue, while schools like us would likely see a huge cut.
The ACC was never the final solution, more like the best chance to stay afloat while our team becomes awesome...er.
The decimation happening to Wazzu and OSU would be happening to us.
The original sin was the fact that the Pac 12 network never aligned with either ESPN or Fox...all the money woes flow from there. Now that ship has sailed and but I don't think the imperatives to jump would have been there had we a top tier deal...remember the first couple of years...you couldn't even find the games, let alone poor promotion, production values and low revenues...cooked the goose.
Yes, even the SEC did not build its network apart from the great media oligarchies. Shame, shame, shame on P12.
Almost makes me sympathetic to Leisure Suit Larry, except for the general suspicion that P12 network was a self-serving move that greased his own palm.
It still pisses me off to think that Kliavkoff kept waiting instead of being proactive. He obviously was not aware of what was going on with the sports networks, which makes me wander why he even had the job. There is a good chance of just UCLA stayed in the PAC the we might have received a deal of $40m+ per school because we kept the LA market. This is just a little below what they will net out playing in the BIG10 after travel and Calimony. And, they are going to get their asses handed to them in the BIG10. Then you have to consider how fucked it is for all the other student athletes that will ned to travel. There were a lot of PAC leaders AWOL during this debacle.
In back-to-back hiring cycles, the incompetent P12 leaders hired chumps with zero experience in collegiate athletics administration. That has consequences.
Sounds like Cal too
Exactly.
$C played ‘em. Fox probably told $C that it’d be no deal without cornering the LA market.
FOX could get in a lot of trouble for that I would think...interfering with an existing contractual relationship.
Fox is one of the media oligarchs. Someone can try, but...
Mountain West deal is $4M/school. Given current market conditions, maybe $10-15M per school per year?
It definitely feels like a bubble is bursting. If Apple and Amazon had done their homework earlier and became viable alternatives to the major networks, they could have stabilized mid-tier teams (lower P5, upper G5 programs). Maybe they'll play a role in the next round in the 2030s.
So many games are streaming anyway on ESPN+ and now Peacock that Apple would be expanding streaming, not starting its own revolution
I meant it less about the technology and more about expanding the pie and breaking the Fox/ESPN near-oligopoly. An Apple or Amazon entry would be actual new broadcast money entering without financial ties to traditional media. Kind of like going full EV instead of hybrid.