some strangeness- Auburn is favored by 6.5 but ESPN FPI gives them only 45% chance of winning. Compare that with Bama/Texas - Bama favored by 7 but has 81% chance to win. Does this mean the dumb money is on Auburn?
UMASS got 5.3 yards a carry vs. Auburn. If Cal can run and the defense plays like the last 2/3 of the UNT game, the Golden Bears should be just fine. Glad that they’re underdogs for psychological purposes.
You gave the impression, in your last paragraph, that *the* Auburn qb had 3 passing yards, but upon looking it up, determined that Ashford must be their 'McAlwain' vs Thorne's 'Garbers'. Thorne had a respectable 10/17/1 while Ashford carried 9 times for 53 and his 3 td's along with his 2/6 passing.
I watched 1/2 of the Auburn game this weekend. Their defense is not good.
Their offense could be OK. Thorne isn't bad and the 2nd QB comes in mostly to run. I did not think our DL played that great against NT...not enuff pressure. Did Sirmon go vanilla on Saturday? Perhaps. Either way not that impressive. Our D definitely needs to step it up this week. DBs and LBs will need to start a lot faster...like from the first snap.
Our offense should go with Finley regardless if Jackson is OK. Our OL should stick with Driscoll at center regardless of Cindric's availability. Trond needs to get more snaps, he was only stopped by offensive penalties.
History suggests that teams make their biggest jump from the 1st game to the 2nd game. Cal has a lot to improve, if they do so we should observe a much better team this coming Saturday.
Oh btw, the Pac02, formerly known as the Pac12, went undefeated this weekend. The only P5 conference to do so! The irony...or is it the horror?
Maybe Sirmon didn't want to show his pressure schemes since it was an early non conference game. However he should start doing some more this week. UCLA really hurt Coastal Carolina with pressure. Send some nickel and corner blitzes and also ILB's delayed into the A gaps, etc. If you play man coverage, then you have to apply pressure.
Take the points. That spread might be reasonable if we were on the road, but it's ridiculous for a game in Berkeley. Auburn was no better than we were last year. They seem improved this year after getting a bunch of transfers in, but so do we.
That said, that line may balance the amount bet on both teams if low-info bettors go in thinking 'Auburn just hung 59, maybe they're good again, Cal's usually lame'.
not just the time; long trips are tiring when you aren't used to them. Look at their schedule for the last 10 years - they never go any appreciable distance. Just like Ole Miss a few
years ago. If we can keep it close until halftime, I think we win.
My understanding is that the line opened most places at 5.5 and amateurs bet it up to 7. We'll see if the pros/smart fellers can make a dent in the marching morons. I don't bet, but I would take that action in a hearbeat.
I am sure there will be some dedicated Auburn analysis this week. In the meantime - looking at 2022 Auburn, and......not impressive overall. Obliterated by Georgia and Alabama. 5-7, with three of those by OOC cupcakes. I know Hugh Freeze took over this year, but this doesn't appear to be the mighty Auburn teams of years past. I like that the Bears are underdogs; helps fight hubris from the first game. Hope the running game pounds the crap out of these guys.
Agree with most everything posted in this line... Auburn was not good. Freeze is a turnaround artist (and scumbag IMO which is not short term relevant to the team's performance but given Auburn boosters' short attention span and his ability to crash and burn his personal life could indicate more turnover at the HC position at some point...) who used the portal pretty well. CAL should do well at home after game 1 improvements. Sirmon might have been pushing "the system" against UNT with so many rotating players... there are so many unknowns.
But that's what is making this start of the season so FREAKIN' GREAT! How long has it been since we fans have had so much energy, so much POSITIVE energy, and so many truly valid and interesting topics to agree/disagree about? I'm loving this!
Auburn hit the portal pretty hard. They have 14 new starters via transfer and don't look much like last year's team. We have the matchups to beat them but this will be a much harder team to play.
Should Cal improve from game 1 to game 2, Auburn is vulnerable on defense. That said, our defense needs to rise to Wilcox era great. They should be able to get there but Sirmon seems to be trending in the wrong direction with his play calling. He claims he has the studs on D, time to let them play. Or is Sirmon just too conservative bend but don't break? dunno, but he can change that narrative this week (and likely needs to to get this D going).
some strangeness- Auburn is favored by 6.5 but ESPN FPI gives them only 45% chance of winning. Compare that with Bama/Texas - Bama favored by 7 but has 81% chance to win. Does this mean the dumb money is on Auburn?
I see us winning like 35 - 31 or something like that.
Yes, Luckhurst's performance needs to mature and make the difference. Honestly, I think he just had an attack of nerves.
UMASS got 5.3 yards a carry vs. Auburn. If Cal can run and the defense plays like the last 2/3 of the UNT game, the Golden Bears should be just fine. Glad that they’re underdogs for psychological purposes.
*desperately calling Vegas friends to place bets on my behalf*
Which way?. 🤔
Cal by 14!
You gave the impression, in your last paragraph, that *the* Auburn qb had 3 passing yards, but upon looking it up, determined that Ashford must be their 'McAlwain' vs Thorne's 'Garbers'. Thorne had a respectable 10/17/1 while Ashford carried 9 times for 53 and his 3 td's along with his 2/6 passing.
True!
I watched 1/2 of the Auburn game this weekend. Their defense is not good.
Their offense could be OK. Thorne isn't bad and the 2nd QB comes in mostly to run. I did not think our DL played that great against NT...not enuff pressure. Did Sirmon go vanilla on Saturday? Perhaps. Either way not that impressive. Our D definitely needs to step it up this week. DBs and LBs will need to start a lot faster...like from the first snap.
Our offense should go with Finley regardless if Jackson is OK. Our OL should stick with Driscoll at center regardless of Cindric's availability. Trond needs to get more snaps, he was only stopped by offensive penalties.
History suggests that teams make their biggest jump from the 1st game to the 2nd game. Cal has a lot to improve, if they do so we should observe a much better team this coming Saturday.
Oh btw, the Pac02, formerly known as the Pac12, went undefeated this weekend. The only P5 conference to do so! The irony...or is it the horror?
Maybe Sirmon didn't want to show his pressure schemes since it was an early non conference game. However he should start doing some more this week. UCLA really hurt Coastal Carolina with pressure. Send some nickel and corner blitzes and also ILB's delayed into the A gaps, etc. If you play man coverage, then you have to apply pressure.
Seems like several of the top defenders we were going to play this past week transferred from North Texas to Auburn. Alas!
Ben Finley had quite a few passes (maybe about 5) that would’ve been caught if the defenders were better. Auburn players probably would have.
We we keep it close. That’s good enough for me.
You mean intercepted don't you? Finley really played well. He was accurate and read coverages well.
War Eagle!
Ok, that's all I know..but I read Rammer Jammer Yellow Hammer...Go Bears!
I didn't kow you were into porn!
I couldn’t possibly comment
I thought TKE house was a party-central. 😉
I wasn't a TKE, but I could tell some stories! Great memories!
I'll bet.
I remember a keg sitting on their front porch about every Thursday through Sunday. 😉
The last time I was in Berkeley, it was a chilly night, but I saw several scantily-clad young women on the TKE porch. 🐻🐻🐻
Not that I noticed, of course. 🥸
Too many points.
Take the points. That spread might be reasonable if we were on the road, but it's ridiculous for a game in Berkeley. Auburn was no better than we were last year. They seem improved this year after getting a bunch of transfers in, but so do we.
That said, that line may balance the amount bet on both teams if low-info bettors go in thinking 'Auburn just hung 59, maybe they're good again, Cal's usually lame'.
And the game starts at 10:30 Auburn time...they will be looking for their hotel rooms after halftime.
Lurker here.. it starts at 9:30 Auburn time, but yes still a late kick.
Traveling out to Berkeley here in a few days. Hope for a good game, which I think it will be.
not just the time; long trips are tiring when you aren't used to them. Look at their schedule for the last 10 years - they never go any appreciable distance. Just like Ole Miss a few
years ago. If we can keep it close until halftime, I think we win.
If the line opened at 7, I suspect the pros hit it to get it down to -5.5.
No way Auburn should be a touchdown favorite.
My understanding is that the line opened most places at 5.5 and amateurs bet it up to 7. We'll see if the pros/smart fellers can make a dent in the marching morons. I don't bet, but I would take that action in a hearbeat.
I am sure there will be some dedicated Auburn analysis this week. In the meantime - looking at 2022 Auburn, and......not impressive overall. Obliterated by Georgia and Alabama. 5-7, with three of those by OOC cupcakes. I know Hugh Freeze took over this year, but this doesn't appear to be the mighty Auburn teams of years past. I like that the Bears are underdogs; helps fight hubris from the first game. Hope the running game pounds the crap out of these guys.
Agree with most everything posted in this line... Auburn was not good. Freeze is a turnaround artist (and scumbag IMO which is not short term relevant to the team's performance but given Auburn boosters' short attention span and his ability to crash and burn his personal life could indicate more turnover at the HC position at some point...) who used the portal pretty well. CAL should do well at home after game 1 improvements. Sirmon might have been pushing "the system" against UNT with so many rotating players... there are so many unknowns.
But that's what is making this start of the season so FREAKIN' GREAT! How long has it been since we fans have had so much energy, so much POSITIVE energy, and so many truly valid and interesting topics to agree/disagree about? I'm loving this!
Oh, and the W4C writers are really good.
Auburn hit the portal pretty hard. They have 14 new starters via transfer and don't look much like last year's team. We have the matchups to beat them but this will be a much harder team to play.
Should Cal improve from game 1 to game 2, Auburn is vulnerable on defense. That said, our defense needs to rise to Wilcox era great. They should be able to get there but Sirmon seems to be trending in the wrong direction with his play calling. He claims he has the studs on D, time to let them play. Or is Sirmon just too conservative bend but don't break? dunno, but he can change that narrative this week (and likely needs to to get this D going).
Sirmon might have PTSD from having to account for our offenses.