Cal wilts in 2nd half against Wake Forest

The Bears fall 76-66

photo via @calmbball twitter

Watching this game, I found myself getting jealous of Wake Forest.

To be clear, the Deacons aren’t an amazing team this year. They sit at #68 in the Kenpom rankings and are firmly on the NCAA bubble. But they have a number of modest traits that I’d love to see in Berkeley. More than anything else, Wake Forest knows what they are, and they execute based on that.

Their defining feature? Rugged, consistent defense that denies good shots, and a collection of smart players who know how to get into passing lanes, poke free balls, and generally disrupt an opposing offense. They’re led by 4th year senior Cameron Hildreth, who tallied 5 steals and 23 points in an MVP effort against Cal. They have roster continuity and they clearly know how to play with each other.

A Wake Forest fan might be confused at my jealousy - the Deacons haven’t made the NCAA tournament in five years under current head coach Steve Forbes, and if they take a bad loss or two they’ll probably be left out again this year. But they displayed a level of workmanlike competence that hasn’t been seen with any kind of consistency in Berkeley in years, and they slowly wore down a Cal team with plenty of fight but not nearly enough of a plan on how to win the game.

I’m in the odd position of being jealous of an average program like Wake Forest because this was the loss that probably consigned Cal to an eight straight season of under .500 basketball. That probably sounds presumptuous when the Bears sit at exactly .500 at 12-12, but the final 7 games of the season are brutal, with five on the road and three games against teams expected to make the NCAA tournament. Cal will be favored to win exactly one game the rest of the way, against Boston College at home.

For Cal to make a late run at .500 basketball, you would need to see signs of improvement. But against Wake Forest, we saw all of the same problems that have dragged Cal down all year long.

On offense, Cal just couldn’t create good shots and had to rely on offensive rebounds and fouls to create scoring opportunities. Cal increasingly settled for three pointers but went just 8-28 (29%) for the game. But settling for a three maybe wasn’t the worst idea, because when Cal tried to penetrate into the paint against Wake Forest’s defense, they gave Wake’s active defenders the chance to steal the ball, which happened 12 times.

And on defense, it was the same story of the entire season - Cal was unable to keep the opponent out of the paint, and Wake went 27-44 (61%) on their 2 point shots.

Like so many other Cal games this season, the Bears kept the game somewhat close with sheer effort, by attacking for 2nd chances and drawing fouls. But they were unable to get the win because the opponent has the cohesion and scheme to create decent looks on offense and prevent decent looks on defense . . . and the Bears don’t.

If you’re looking for bits of optimism, you can point to another step forward from Andrej Stojakovic, who looked less rusty in his 2nd game back from an injury layoff. You can point at Mady Sissoko and Lee Dort, who combined for 9 high effort offensive rebounds and 16 points. It’s somewhat cold comfort, however, because there are always positive individual efforts in every game. Cal obviously has individual talent. The problem is that the season is 75% over and the Bears still don’t appear to have any kind of team cohesion. They are still less than the sum of their parts.

If I watched this game and this season happening a decade ago, I wouldn’t be that concerned, because I could count on the fact that most of the roster would return for another season and the Bears could use the off-season to learn to play together. And I’m still hopeful that most of this team comes back next year, perhaps augmented by an addition or two. But it’s also possible that everybody just goes into the portal again.

This off-season is going to go a long way towards defining the trajectory of the Mark Madsen era. Can he find a way to keep this core of talent together, while simultaneously figuring out how to develop that talent such that the talent is complimentary? I’ll be watching the last few games of the season looking for positive signs, but the bulk of the work will have to happen from April through October.