Cal Football's 2025 Opening Statement: More Balance
Early down gains were key.
The Bears got their new season off to a rocking start in Corvallis on Saturday. True freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele’s debut at QB was certainly one for the books, remembered for showcasing stunning passing accuracy and, as one tweet put it, some of the best looking incompletions I’ve ever seen.
But while there were moments of raw explosiveness (that 32-yard scoring catch by Grizzell!), balance and steady forward progress underpinned the Bears’ performance.
Cal’s Fate Hangs in the (Play) Balance
EPA per Offensive Play
The histograms show how Cal’s plays stacked up in terms of expected points added (EPA) by quarter. Most of the plays cluster around a slightly positive EPA—a mark of consistent ball movement in small, efficient increments rather than relying on a few explosive gains.
Success Rate by Down
Despite overall consistency in offensive production, the Bears were inconsistent across downs. The Harsin offense is rolling on first and second down, but, as with years past, remains anemic on third down.
First down (~45% overall): Nearly half of Cal’s first-down plays were successful, helping the offense to advance in manageable situations.
Second down (~41% overall): Huge improvement in second down efficiency, showing balance in play-calling.
Third down (~15% overall): A sharp drop off that underscored Cal’s struggle when forced into conversion situations—also an indication that early down gains carried the Bears.
What’s Next
The Bears’ first win of the 2025 season isn’t just an exciting start for a true freshman quarterback. It’s a sign of structure in place: balanced play-calling, efficiency on early downs, and a defense that remained stout.
As Cal looks ahead to Texas Southern, there are three questions on my mind:
Can the Bears can stay disciplined—avoiding those killer penalties?
Can the O-line can maintain strong pass protection?
Can the Harsin reforms improve third down performance (as they have first and second)?
With those in place, Sagapolutele’s week 1 debut may truly mark the beginning of #new3ra for Cal football.
I love Berkeley.
Interesting problem to solve, how to improve third down conversions. We were weak in that category in what was overall a pretty good game for us. Just couldn't get those yards on the ground when we needed them. Go Bears!