Ever wonder why the “mess hall” is called that? The root of mess is the Old Frenchmes, "portion of food" (cf. modern Frenchmets), drawn from the Latin verb mittere, meaning "to send" and "to put" (cf. modern French mettre), the original sense being "a course of a meal put on the table"; cfr. also the modern Italian portata with the same meaning, past participle of portare, to bring. This sense of mess, which appeared in English in the 13th century, was often used for cooked or liquid dishes in particular, as in the "mess of pottage" (porridge or soup) or Eton mess.
Credit: Lara Jackson. You can buy her prints or take her workshops here.
1. More cohabitation with family = higher cost efficiency and therefore need/desire to work in crap jobs. Rent is typically half or more of someone's earnings, so getting a multiple of our take-home pay by moving in with mom is a big shift. I think academics grossly underestimate the bottom of the market who just work to live for the day and are never taught to save money. If they have enough money for rent, food, and their cell phone service - good luck getting them to take another shift.
2. Substantial reclassification to "not seeking employment" from those who have co-morbidities. You have whole subclasses where it's risky to work with others - older workers and workers who have/had chronic disease.
3. Supply/demand dislocation in bottom of the labor market. Low-end jobs went away quickly. They came back later, but suddenly... and much slower than it takes people to move. If you get supply or demand shocks that big, you're going to have disequilibrium.
4. Unemployment benefits. I don't think it's top 3, but I think it's a factor.
Over-specialization. A lot of jobs have become so specialized, and so tied into a niche, that a LOT of highly educated and experienced people have no clue how to do them. And the employers want anyone coming in to be expert-elite at the prices (wages) being paid. The result is a lot of poor fits.
Compounding the problem, a lot of kids coming out of school aren't being taught how a lot of things actually work, or how to think creatively and critically about problems. (This I've had confirmed in conversations with my daughter, son-in-law, etc., who report not learning a lot of fundamental things.) They are getting taught a lot of theory, and someone's enlightened vision, but not the why's behind it. The result is a lot of people not well positioned to enter a lot of jobs because they can't apply what they have learned outside the context it was presented in.
It’s actually both. A lot of childcare centers have closed or are also having difficulty in hiring enough staff to stay in ratio so that they can fill their spots to capacity.
Wages in the childcare/daycare industry are very low. Childcare providers note that they cannot save much. They are forced to rent; they can't possibly save enough to build a down payment on a house and they barely have enough for the necessities.
Hence, many workers in the childcare industry are leaving for other jobs. Consequently, the labor force in childcare is contracting.
I’m really hoping the Dems can pass something in the Recon bill to address childcare because it can be very expensive and childcare providers don’t get paid nearly enough, especially in HCOLs.
For example, my monthly mortgage is $3,100 and my monthly childcare cost $2,700. That’s for two kids aged 1 and 3.
However, I fear the Recon bill won’t pass and if it does it will not do anything for about childcare and if it does it won’t be enough to help a lot of people.
It would make economic sense to subsidize childcare and raise corporate and wealth taxes to pay for it. Either that or raise the minimum wage to $20/hour and provide a childcare credit to working parents.
The labor force is helped by having reliable childcare paid at living wage levels. Consequently, businesses throughout America are helped to create wealth when the workforce can focus on their jobs.
Because work sucks. A lot of jobs barely made sense in the before times, but now there with added risk and the opportunity for reflection the calculus has changed. The interesting thing will be if it lasts
I wonder if it will last. To be honest, how many Starbucks, Carls Jr, Subways, Dominoes and other terrible chain food franchises do we need?
Work has always sucked but I feel like it’s a combination of older boomers finally permanently retiring by choice, death or fear of death, younger generation not wanting to work low wage food industry or retail jobs, and lack of low wage immigrant workers available due to immigration restrictions imposed by TFG from 16-20.
Food industry jobs, especially those in fast food seem to be going the way of agricultural jobs, in that young American born kids don’t want to work those jobs.
I wonder how much of the challenge of staffing service sector jobs is because people are finally getting enough per hour that they aren't working all these extra shifts
That’s a good point as well. The raise in the minimum wage means people can scale back the number of shifts they work at one job and/or cut back from two low wage jobs to just one.
You know remote work is interesting too. Doesn’t apply to low wage jobs, but now all of a sudden companies that had a local monopoly have to compete for workers. Say for example Abbott in Chicago, used to be only big biotech in town. Now you can live in Chicago but work at a California biotech, and CA companies are generally better to workers due to long history of competing for talent and unenforceability of non competes
I'd be inclined to sell off the farmland and obviously that ridiculous AGA stove would need to be removed from the kitchen. One of Scotland's less appealing features is that you can walk where you want, but fishing rights accrue to whoever owns the banks of the river (IIRC), so I'd want to hang on to the river if only for the mysterious fishy rents
Yeah. Everywhere and it's bad. Home values in our neighborhood up 50% in 10 months. At times, there is literally zero inventory available. My new home construction was delayed 8 months due to a window shortage. Half the restaurants at our local airport closed due to a lack of workers. Many local restaurants are doing take-out/delivery only because they can't staff inside. No Ivory Soap. Boat repairs take half a year due to parts/labor shortage. Lumber shortage meant that all 2x4s, no matter how gnarled and knotty are still installed into non-load bearing walls. Couches now have a 6-8 month delivery window, which is 2 months later than normal due to Hurricane Irene flooding the key part manufacturer in Houston. Depending on the model, appliances take 6 months to deliver. Mold abatement takes 2 months. Moving services have a 3 month backlog, which makes it impossible to plan a move since you don't know when a house will be completed.
Can't find a guy to take a bookshelf apart with a screwdriver, move it in a truck, and screw it back together. First bid was $2,200, which I took as a "fuck off, this residential project isn't worth my time". Painters? Good luck getting them to call you back.
yup...in the building industry, things like insulation and flexible ductwork are *months* out. And I bought an e-bike in June and it got here two months ago. part supply chain; part "boats doing circles in the Bay"
Supply chain issues up the wazzu - spent 3 hours yesterday trying to locate a back outlet toilet, some supply houses saying "well yeah, I could get you one, but it would take two months" - this after the original supplier who said it would be here on the 5th, still hasn't supplied it.
Absolutely. It's been all over the news that lab supplies and plastics are in shortage due to the increased demand for use in COVID testing. The part that I wasn't expecting is the role that company size plays in this when working with manufacturers.
I'm a decent enough cribbage player. Mrs Slug was brought up with the game and plays well. I made points early on with her family when we were engaged by beating a certain family member, skunking and double skunking him. I was told later that no one had ever done that against that person.
I got introduced to it living in forestry work bunkhouses as a young adult...became a regular, look forward to any sessions of it and its variations. Then after a few years I completely lost interest...wanna play some cribbage? Nah.
haha, other way around, I used to get my hair cut all the time as a kid, then not at all 16-22, then rarely, then for decades by the same women. Also, do nude self portraits count?
For people that can enjoy it, it's really an amazing time. My favorite place is a few hours drive from Tokyo where you can see the sunrise and Mt. Fuji from onsen.
There has been constant talks about this in Japan, and there are more places allowing tattoos to accommodate foreign travelers. Tattoos have traditionally been associated closely with Yakuza in Japan, so no tattoo policy = no yakuza allowed.
If anyone has tattoo and wants to go to onsen, I advise staying in a room with personal onsen which you don't have to interact with anyone else.
I used to go to Hokkaido 3~4x every year for work until Covid hit. Japan just reduced the quarantine from 14 to 10 days for ppl allowed entry if you are fully vaccinated. Unfortunately J&J is not on the list so I'm considered "not vaccinated' and 10 days is still too much.
GSA publishes discrepancies in Trump DC hotel. As a former auditor, I would throw a giant red flag at his financials. He's clearly under-reporting revenue as no bank would enter into a $170m loan that was secured by an licensing agreement that only earned $367.88/day.
Are you cheap? CAA is selling home tickets in the end zone vs. Colorado or Oregon State for $12/each. They say you have to be a CAA member, but I'm not sure there is a mechanism to check.
Not pro...yet...but my niece just became the #2 ranked high school 5K runner in America. She was #6 but she just beat the previously ranked #2 and #4. She's f'ing dynamite. And she's only a junior.
Unfortunately it actually could be...even if not an alum, as a lifelong fan and supporter of the athletic program, he's still a booster, tho the familial relationship muddies the issue a bit.
But so long as there's no exchange of impermissible benefits, like a Cadillac Eldorado or a $10,000 bracelet, it should be good.
Canada has a wave of young talent that doesn't seem to understand or give a shit about any of Canada's shortcomings, like how they usually suck at soccer or how their bacon's just ham.
There wasn't a great reason Canada HAD to be so bad at soccer (most times they didn't even make it to the final stage of CONCACAF qualifying). They're a rich country with resources, and most of the region is not. Just needed to start trying.
I'm leaving around 11:30 to pick up No 3 at UCSC, then we're driving up to go to the game. Going to BART in because SF traffic is going to be a nightmare tonight. Fleet week, Giants game, Warriors game.
With the Warriors game, the Giants game, and Fleet week, traffic and parking would've been a nightmare. Probably going to see the Blue Angels on Sun so I'll drive and park near Chinatown or North Beach.
Give me your top 4 reasons for the current labor shortage.
1. More cohabitation with family = higher cost efficiency and therefore need/desire to work in crap jobs. Rent is typically half or more of someone's earnings, so getting a multiple of our take-home pay by moving in with mom is a big shift. I think academics grossly underestimate the bottom of the market who just work to live for the day and are never taught to save money. If they have enough money for rent, food, and their cell phone service - good luck getting them to take another shift.
2. Substantial reclassification to "not seeking employment" from those who have co-morbidities. You have whole subclasses where it's risky to work with others - older workers and workers who have/had chronic disease.
3. Supply/demand dislocation in bottom of the labor market. Low-end jobs went away quickly. They came back later, but suddenly... and much slower than it takes people to move. If you get supply or demand shocks that big, you're going to have disequilibrium.
4. Unemployment benefits. I don't think it's top 3, but I think it's a factor.
That is lucid, intelligent and well-thought out, Mr Gambini....
Over-specialization. A lot of jobs have become so specialized, and so tied into a niche, that a LOT of highly educated and experienced people have no clue how to do them. And the employers want anyone coming in to be expert-elite at the prices (wages) being paid. The result is a lot of poor fits.
Compounding the problem, a lot of kids coming out of school aren't being taught how a lot of things actually work, or how to think creatively and critically about problems. (This I've had confirmed in conversations with my daughter, son-in-law, etc., who report not learning a lot of fundamental things.) They are getting taught a lot of theory, and someone's enlightened vision, but not the why's behind it. The result is a lot of people not well positioned to enter a lot of jobs because they can't apply what they have learned outside the context it was presented in.
Sure that’s true of skilled labor and higher paying jobs but I don’t this applies to the labor shortages in fast food and restaurant industries.
You left out lack of childcare - that's one of the big three, and the reason women's participation lags men's.
Cost of child care, more than the lack of it.
It’s actually both. A lot of childcare centers have closed or are also having difficulty in hiring enough staff to stay in ratio so that they can fill their spots to capacity.
Not meaning to be flip, but why can't it be both?
Wages in the childcare/daycare industry are very low. Childcare providers note that they cannot save much. They are forced to rent; they can't possibly save enough to build a down payment on a house and they barely have enough for the necessities.
Hence, many workers in the childcare industry are leaving for other jobs. Consequently, the labor force in childcare is contracting.
I’m really hoping the Dems can pass something in the Recon bill to address childcare because it can be very expensive and childcare providers don’t get paid nearly enough, especially in HCOLs.
For example, my monthly mortgage is $3,100 and my monthly childcare cost $2,700. That’s for two kids aged 1 and 3.
However, I fear the Recon bill won’t pass and if it does it will not do anything for about childcare and if it does it won’t be enough to help a lot of people.
It would make economic sense to subsidize childcare and raise corporate and wealth taxes to pay for it. Either that or raise the minimum wage to $20/hour and provide a childcare credit to working parents.
The labor force is helped by having reliable childcare paid at living wage levels. Consequently, businesses throughout America are helped to create wealth when the workforce can focus on their jobs.
2019: Oh shit the robots are going to take our jobs!!!
2021: Where are those robots already, JFC I need a chalupa, son
Because work sucks. A lot of jobs barely made sense in the before times, but now there with added risk and the opportunity for reflection the calculus has changed. The interesting thing will be if it lasts
I wonder if it will last. To be honest, how many Starbucks, Carls Jr, Subways, Dominoes and other terrible chain food franchises do we need?
Work has always sucked but I feel like it’s a combination of older boomers finally permanently retiring by choice, death or fear of death, younger generation not wanting to work low wage food industry or retail jobs, and lack of low wage immigrant workers available due to immigration restrictions imposed by TFG from 16-20.
Food industry jobs, especially those in fast food seem to be going the way of agricultural jobs, in that young American born kids don’t want to work those jobs.
I wonder how much of the challenge of staffing service sector jobs is because people are finally getting enough per hour that they aren't working all these extra shifts
That’s a good point as well. The raise in the minimum wage means people can scale back the number of shifts they work at one job and/or cut back from two low wage jobs to just one.
You know remote work is interesting too. Doesn’t apply to low wage jobs, but now all of a sudden companies that had a local monopoly have to compete for workers. Say for example Abbott in Chicago, used to be only big biotech in town. Now you can live in Chicago but work at a California biotech, and CA companies are generally better to workers due to long history of competing for talent and unenforceability of non competes
DBD Retreat. 6 bedrooms.
https://search.savills.com/property-detail/gbedruedr190029
I'd be inclined to sell off the farmland and obviously that ridiculous AGA stove would need to be removed from the kitchen. One of Scotland's less appealing features is that you can walk where you want, but fishing rights accrue to whoever owns the banks of the river (IIRC), so I'd want to hang on to the river if only for the mysterious fishy rents
Riparian rights! An English common law concept that devilishly persists
...in some states, not most.
I believe that is an AGA stove. It's very British. Very "in".
https://food52.com/blog/26063-the-legendary-allure-of-britain-s-aga-stove
Are you seeing product shortages, price increases, short staffing issues where you live or in your industry?
Yeah. Everywhere and it's bad. Home values in our neighborhood up 50% in 10 months. At times, there is literally zero inventory available. My new home construction was delayed 8 months due to a window shortage. Half the restaurants at our local airport closed due to a lack of workers. Many local restaurants are doing take-out/delivery only because they can't staff inside. No Ivory Soap. Boat repairs take half a year due to parts/labor shortage. Lumber shortage meant that all 2x4s, no matter how gnarled and knotty are still installed into non-load bearing walls. Couches now have a 6-8 month delivery window, which is 2 months later than normal due to Hurricane Irene flooding the key part manufacturer in Houston. Depending on the model, appliances take 6 months to deliver. Mold abatement takes 2 months. Moving services have a 3 month backlog, which makes it impossible to plan a move since you don't know when a house will be completed.
SGB, you described the situation very well. My experience is the same.
Can't find a guy to take a bookshelf apart with a screwdriver, move it in a truck, and screw it back together. First bid was $2,200, which I took as a "fuck off, this residential project isn't worth my time". Painters? Good luck getting them to call you back.
Thanks Obamiden
I guess I'm lucky that way, not having problems getting contractors to work for me, partly (or mainly?) because I pay them fast.
Not really. Doing federal work on contract means that all we need is for the money machine to go brrrrrrr.
Nope. Still plenty of money to lend.
To quote Consolidated (supposedly quoting Adam Smith): frictionless production.
yup...in the building industry, things like insulation and flexible ductwork are *months* out. And I bought an e-bike in June and it got here two months ago. part supply chain; part "boats doing circles in the Bay"
Ocean container shipment has been a mess. Huge increase in freight cost and unbelievably long delays, struggling to meet demands of customers
Supply chain issues up the wazzu - spent 3 hours yesterday trying to locate a back outlet toilet, some supply houses saying "well yeah, I could get you one, but it would take two months" - this after the original supplier who said it would be here on the 5th, still hasn't supplied it.
Absolutely. It's been all over the news that lab supplies and plastics are in shortage due to the increased demand for use in COVID testing. The part that I wasn't expecting is the role that company size plays in this when working with manufacturers.
Cribbage
I'm a decent enough cribbage player. Mrs Slug was brought up with the game and plays well. I made points early on with her family when we were engaged by beating a certain family member, skunking and double skunking him. I was told later that no one had ever done that against that person.
love it! hard to find people to play against. Dad taught me when I was like 10.
15-2, 15-4, and a double run is 12
15 two, 15 four, 15 six, 15 eight, and the double double run is 24.
damn, you got a good hand! I was trying to not be greedy with my mythical hand ;-) you probably got two for his heels also...
better than getting 19
is there an online cribbage game that you know? I'd be up for a game
I got introduced to it living in forestry work bunkhouses as a young adult...became a regular, look forward to any sessions of it and its variations. Then after a few years I completely lost interest...wanna play some cribbage? Nah.
Fun card game.
Have more people cut your hair or seen you naked?
Depends, as an adult?
Cugel - former child naturalist
haha, other way around, I used to get my hair cut all the time as a kid, then not at all 16-22, then rarely, then for decades by the same women. Also, do nude self portraits count?
Hair probably, though it's hard to account for who might have gotten a brief look in a locker room or something.
hair - since I haven't been living that Dr J lifestyle
...and what does the venn diagram look like?
Just my mama!
Wow, these security questions to recover my password are getting strange.
Cut my hair, for sure.
Naked probably
I never had a constant or go to barber until recently so a lot of people have cut my hair.
I've had less than 10 ppl cut my hair in entire life. I like to go to hot springs in Japan where everyone is naked.
the onsen is one of my favorite things in the world.
great memories of traveling on my own a couple hours just north of Tokyo in early Mar one year where there was still plenty of snow.
For people that can enjoy it, it's really an amazing time. My favorite place is a few hours drive from Tokyo where you can see the sunrise and Mt. Fuji from onsen.
https://www.japanistry.com/hottarakashi-onsen/
https://www.japanistry.com/tattoo-policy-hot-springs/
Whoa
There has been constant talks about this in Japan, and there are more places allowing tattoos to accommodate foreign travelers. Tattoos have traditionally been associated closely with Yakuza in Japan, so no tattoo policy = no yakuza allowed.
If anyone has tattoo and wants to go to onsen, I advise staying in a room with personal onsen which you don't have to interact with anyone else.
putting it on the list of cool places to go next time i am in Japan.
i know there have been separate DBD discussion on Japan in the past. would really love to plan a ski trip to Hokkaido one of these years ...
I used to go to Hokkaido 3~4x every year for work until Covid hit. Japan just reduced the quarantine from 14 to 10 days for ppl allowed entry if you are fully vaccinated. Unfortunately J&J is not on the list so I'm considered "not vaccinated' and 10 days is still too much.
I wonder why J&J isn’t on the list.
Petaluma
Chicken capital of the world. Or at least it was when Charles M. Schultz was living.
My racehorse was born & raised in Petaluma before heading down to Golden Gate Fields. The pretty old horse farm is now a vineyard.
Iron Horse?
chickens
It is and a fun brewery to visit.
What job or activity do you associate with jerks
Clerks in municipal building & planning offices.
Some of them, most definitely.
Attorneys (and I say that as an attorney)
Wall Street traders
election consultants
MLM
start up founders
Mess
Today in COVID
Pfizer asks FDA to Authorize its Covid vaccine for kids aged 5-11
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/07/us/politics/pfizer-fda-authorization-children-5-11.html
Crumbling Democracies
GSA publishes discrepancies in Trump DC hotel. As a former auditor, I would throw a giant red flag at his financials. He's clearly under-reporting revenue as no bank would enter into a $170m loan that was secured by an licensing agreement that only earned $367.88/day.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/08/trump-hid-over-70-million-in-losses-on-dc-hotel-house-panel-alleges.html
Cal
GO Bears!!!
Are you cheap? CAA is selling home tickets in the end zone vs. Colorado or Oregon State for $12/each. They say you have to be a CAA member, but I'm not sure there is a mechanism to check.
https://calbears.evenue.net/cgi-bin/ncommerce3/EVExecMacro?linkID=cal&evm=prmo&RSRC=&RDAT=&caller=PR&display=reg
Promo code: CAACAL2021
Damn...I'm going to miss both games. I'll be in Boston for a few days, Philly to visit No 1 for maybe 5-6 days, and then LA for my nephew's bday.
Who wins Cal or the bye week?
Bye week. Cal Longsnapper keeps making errors in practice.
Per the Cal blogs I read, the whole rest of the season is toast.
Bye week 7, Cal 0 in overtime.
That’s a big assumption that we would make the extra point.
I think that's the bye week that made the extra point.
Fumbling into the end-zone as time runs out, no less
Other College
Oregon's OC is likely out another week after having surgery.
https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2021/10/oregon-ducks-offensive-coordinator-joe-moorhead-getting-better-back-in-eugene-following-illness-that-required-surgery.html
I hope “surgery” is code for him interviewing to be the Cal OC!! I can dream!
@come on...we all know it will be Troy Taylor@
This doesn't make UConn's season any easier
https://twitter.com/uconnfootball/status/1446487722332463127?s=21
San Jose State's president resigns in fallout over a trainer inappropriately touching about 2 dozen female student-athletes.
https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/32360557/san-jose-state-university-president-resigns-amid-sex-abuse-fallout
Pro
Pete Rose doesn't do his legacy any favors by starting - of all things - a podcast about baseball betting
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2021/10/07/pete-rose-gambling-betting-podcast-baseball/6034016001/
eh, it's so trashed, what the difference?
Not pro...yet...but my niece just became the #2 ranked high school 5K runner in America. She was #6 but she just beat the previously ranked #2 and #4. She's f'ing dynamite. And she's only a junior.
Recruit her to Cal!
SInce you're not an alum, that isn't a recruiting violation is it?
Unfortunately it actually could be...even if not an alum, as a lifelong fan and supporter of the athletic program, he's still a booster, tho the familial relationship muddies the issue a bit.
But so long as there's no exchange of impermissible benefits, like a Cadillac Eldorado or a $10,000 bracelet, it should be good.
What about a McDonald's bag?
Ha - I think uncles can probably get away with it.
World Cup Qualifier: USMNT 2, Jamaica 0
Man, the legend of Pepi continues to grow.
Looks like they're putting things together. Mexico tied with Canada so that means USA and Mexico are tied at the top of the qualification standings.
Canada has also been surprisingly good so far. Might make their first World Cup since 1986.
Canada has a wave of young talent that doesn't seem to understand or give a shit about any of Canada's shortcomings, like how they usually suck at soccer or how their bacon's just ham.
There wasn't a great reason Canada HAD to be so bad at soccer (most times they didn't even make it to the final stage of CONCACAF qualifying). They're a rich country with resources, and most of the region is not. Just needed to start trying.
I'll bet you a toonie this is the year, eh?
Game 1 Giants-Dodgers, man I'm excited and I'm not even a fan of either team.
https://twitter.com/MaraWilson/status/1446219040792330280?s=20
I'm leaving around 11:30 to pick up No 3 at UCSC, then we're driving up to go to the game. Going to BART in because SF traffic is going to be a nightmare tonight. Fleet week, Giants game, Warriors game.
GBBR
BART is a great call...I wouldn't even bother with Muni...do your own little pre-game pub crawl along the water.
With the Warriors game, the Giants game, and Fleet week, traffic and parking would've been a nightmare. Probably going to see the Blue Angels on Sun so I'll drive and park near Chinatown or North Beach.
slugs represent!
All 4 series have games today. Should be fun...
Astros def White Sox, HOU 1-0 ALDS
Is that really a living, breathing Tony LaRussa, or is this like a Weekend at Bernie's situation?
You could get Tito's contact buzz from a breathing Tony LaRussa.
Rays def Red Sox 5-0, TB 1-0 ALDS
That "ballpark"...
You hit it into the clown's mouth and it's a triple, but if you can hit it through the windmill, it's a homerun...
Haha, so true.
Stealing home was very cool.
Stealing home is the most exciting play in baseball. Probably because it happens so rarely.
Link for the lazy
https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1446310871140028417
Pretty incredible jump, and the pitcher was looking the other way...
Anyone watch Acapulco? First two eps dropped yesterday. Not great, but solid (13/19). Can be Ted Lasso methadone for awhile...