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GRIM

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Nov 4·edited Nov 4Author

Day of the Dead is actually several days. Dia de los Muertos isn't necessarily a sad occasion, but it does face death head on. Nov 1st is usually for remembering children and the 2nd is for adults. I went to a barrio graveyard on the second, but one could see all the children's graves all decorated because they conspicuously have balloons tied to them. As my wife and I went to leave, there was one guy sitting on a grave site all alone that had balloons tied to it. His back was to us, but he turned around just as we passed.

I can't properly describe his expression - sunken eyes, dark circles, and a look. He wasn't crying or even frowning. But it was a look that I have never seen before - even in parents who have lost their children. I was looking into the face of a grim broken soul. It was like peering into a endless void - a hole of infinite blackness where hope, happiness, or recovery don't exist.

As my wife and I passed him, my wife and then I spontaneous burst into tears simply at seeing this poor man face. We can't even talk about that moment or recollect his face without tearing up. I will never forget that man. He was despair incarnate and his grim fate terrified me.

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Hey, sorry for posting late today and missing 10/30's DBD. The 30th was my 25th anniversary, so was deemed by my the DBD Executive Council to be a national holiday. And I was late today because there was an earthquake/terrible flood/locusts. I swear it won't happen again until the next time it does.

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Mexico City was fun - dawn balloon ride over Teotihuacán, watching an irreverent lucha libre match in a packed 16,500 person arena, eating fantastic food, visiting one of the finest national anthropology museums in the world, being the only tourist in a packed cemetery on Dia De Muertos, and sipping mezcal while waiting for 500k parade viewers to dissipate.

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Congrats on making it to 25 and Mrs SGB putting up with you!

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Nov 4·edited Nov 4

hope you enjoyed the rare day off from DBD duties. we appreciate it even more when you are away!

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ELSEWHERE IN COLLEGE

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Matt Bradley announces he is forgoing his seventh year of college basketball. He says he's ready to rip up the men's rec leagues.

https://x.com/jonschaeffer/status/1853275977209557451/photo/2

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Incarnate Word's Jalen Walthall TD celebration is hella cool but gets flagged. He also sets off a trend.

https://twitter.com/NFLonFOX/status/1853217830340075553

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Colorado State beats Nevada 38-21, which included their 32 year old Englishman with three kids placekicker who kicked off on this play:

https://twitter.com/thecomeback/status/1852894964814147887

and booted a school record 60 yards:

https://twitter.com/MountainWest/status/1852882360255279534

Sorry folks, the clock on eligibility starts when you enroll in college, so y'all are shit out of luck if you think you can walk on. The record was 61-year old Alan Moore who kicked an XP in 2011

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/6952098/faulkner-kicker-alan-moore-61-becomes-oldest-college-player

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we did a college visit to Roger Williams U in Bristol RI.

their mascot is Swoop the Hawk. sadly you can only find teddy bears in the student store, no actual hawks!

https://mascothalloffame.com/mascots/swoop-the-hawk/

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That reminds me of when I was in Oregon and looked for an Oregon State Beaver stuffed animal. All I could find was a teddy bear that wore a shirt says "Oregon State Beaver".

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glad i am not the only one

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Swoop is also the name of Utah Utes, Philly Eagles, Miami Redhawks, EWU Eagles, and South Bend Cubs (High-A Cubs affiliate) mascots.

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Scoring: Ashton Jeanty 126 points (21 TDs) in 8 games, Florida State 130 in nine games

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[Other former Pac-12] #1 Oregon beats Michigan 38-17, ASU beats OK State 42-21, UCF beats Arizona 56-12, UCLA beats Nebraska 27-20 after former Cal DB Kaylin Moore picked off a pass at their own 13 yard with 29 seconds left, UW beat USC 26-21, and WSU/Oregon State had bye weeks.

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Nebraska's bad luck and Moore's awareness saved the day for UCLA

https://twitter.com/B1Gfootball/status/1852858365136810303

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Arizona's Isaiah Johnson with one of the more egregious facemask penalties in recent memory

https://twitter.com/TPortalCFB/status/1852834161473810609

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[ACC] #5 Miami beats Duke 53-31, #11 Clemson loses to L'ville 33-21, #20 SMU beats #18 Pitt 48-25, NC State smashes Furd 59-28, Cuse beats VA Tech 38-31 in OT, UNC beats FSU 35-11 to make Cal's loss to FSU that much worse

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Furd, U$C and UCLA are a combined 9-17. Good times.

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pac12 standings

https://tinyurl.com/mwx65ntc

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HSB - you've inspired me.

https://twitter.com/SGBear2/status/1853458899518591469

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This is actually relevant this year is it not? Won't this determine prospective bowl bids?

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haha. this is great

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Nov 4·edited Nov 4

we are hardly doing our part .. 4-4 overall, 17th place in ACC, only winless team in conference play

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And here I was trying to provide an uplifting message....

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The standard in Cal journalism, where an uplifting message is that relevant comps are struggling too.

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PRO

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Saints fire Dennis Allen

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What took them so long? Really, I was surprised he was hired in the first place given his tenure with the Raiders.

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Niners don't lose the bye week.

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Though it would have been better if Arizona had lost.

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Lucky for them.

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Warriors bank on stingy defense and just enough offense to repel a furious Rockets rally

https://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2024/11/2/24286597/warriors-rockets-127-121-jonathan-kuminga-draymond-green-brandin-podziemski-film-breakdown

If you pay attention to the lineups the Houston Rockets were throwing out late in the game against the Golden State Warriors, you’d notice quite the glaring absence: no Alperen Şengün, their up-and-coming center on an All-Star trajectory. Why then, you would ask, did the Rockets bench arguably their best player? The answer is simple: because the Warriors defense had completely taken away Şengün from the Rockets offense, all while highlighting his compromising presence on the defensive end for the Rockets.

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I didn’t realize they play in DC tonight. I read they had practice at Georgetown yesterday and Steph may play tonight. They stay at the Four Seasons in Georgetown and there are usually a handful of people waiting out front to get autographs.

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Interesting to see how the Poole party goes. I think he's been not too bad this year.

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Ws beat the Rockets twice on a back to back. Blew a 31 point lead. Was up 5 with like 13 seconds left and let the Rockets tie it up. The big thing was the poor FT shooting in the 4th and no PG with both Steph and Melton out. Kuminga wouldn't let them lose in OT.

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Colts fans got their wish via a benching of QB Anthony Richardson. Colts lose 21-13 to the Vikings.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401671647/colts-vikings

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Raiders lose 41-24 to Bengals on the road, then fire OC Luke Getsy, OL Coach James Cregg, and QB coach Rich Scangarello

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401671704

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/42182081/las-vegas-raiders-fire-offensive-coordinator-luke-getsy

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Is the problem also Antonio Pierce? Will he make it past this year? Players wanted him after they played fairly well during his interim HC weeks.

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OUR CRUMBLING DEMOCRACY

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I am 32 hours away from an unhealthy amount of stress-pacing/drinking

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12 Treats to Bake While You Wait for Election Results

Take a break from your screen and make something delicious. It’s a win-win.

https://cooking.nytimes.com/article/baking-recipes-to-distract-you

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our kids have the day off from school tomorrow. i think i have a tennis lesson. hopefully some less.

no NBA games . .that would have been a useful distraction

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Taper on slowly, it won't end on or shortly after Election day.

There are 2 scenarios in play. 1. Trump wins, and obviously won't go away anytime soon, and will commence causing an unprecedented level of chaos and division. 2. Trump does not win, and does not go away, and will commence causing an unprecedented level of chaos and division.

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sounds about right ... unprecedented level of chaos and division.

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Nov 4Liked by SGBear

If Trump loses, Biden should throw him in jail to stop attempts to sow electoral uncertainty. After all, SCOTUS say the President has absolute immunity for official acts. Use it.

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That would be the ultimate irony.

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Fivethirtyeight.com says 51/49 percent chances for GOP/DEM win in the House, They also say there is a 91/09 percent chance of GOP/DEM win in the Senate.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/house/

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Take what fivethirtyeight and any other poll aggregator with an immense grain of salt.

I don't trust 'em because it seems remarkably unlikely that *all polls* in the US Presidential race since Labor Day have been within the margin of error. I think it is remarkably likely that the pollsters don't trust their data and all they do is make changes around the edges and repackage it as "this state has flipped!" or "X candidate is surging in this state". Trump's ceiling has historically been about 47% nationally. I doubt that his current level of support is even that high.

Pollsters are going to have to revamp their methodologies in polling because the old methods aren't producing data that the pollsters find reliable. I think Harris' level of support is stronger than we are being led to believe.

As an important point of data, I point to J. Ann Selzer's Iowa poll that shows Harris with a 3-point lead (47-44) over Trump when published just 2 days ago. This poll looks like an outlier in comparison to the other polls. What makes me think that it isn't an outlier is the pollster's track record from 2004 to 2020. This pollster went from showing a Democratic lean when compared to actual results to showing a Republican lean and being closer to dead-on accurate as time goes on. From WaPo, here's a table of those polls and actual results:

YEAR POLL RESULT

2004 D+5 R+1

2008 D+17 D+10

2012 D+5 D+7

2016 R+7 R+9

2020 R+7 R+9

Throw out '04 and '08 because the comparison between the poll and the actual results were outside the margin of error (typically 3.5 %). Each succeeding year has been with the margin of error and has gotten the winning candidate correct.

COMMENTARY: I used to have great respect for pollsters. I have lost that respect because I think they are trying to hedge their bets (!) and hide from a chaotic election year. I also am of the belief that candidates will use polls to bully voters. Never has this belief been any stronger than it has been this year, and it goes with a candidate who is desperately trying to stay out of prison.

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If most polls, both those trying to get it representative (becoming increasingly complex), and those trying to reinforce or advance a preferred perspective, are within the margin of error, or too close to call, that suggests that it probably is, at least in total, too close to call.

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Allow me to be more explicit - I think most national pollsters are befuddled by the data they've seen, and they are fudging their numbers. I also think that this election is not anywhere near as close in terms of popular vote as they make it out to be. I think that when the votes are counted Harris will have a decisive victory both in terms of popular vote and in terms of electoral vote. She will carry the Blue Wall and she will probably also carry North Carolina, Georgia (albeit narrowly), and Arizona (also narrowly).

It is not believable that the race has been largely static over the last (checks calendar) nine weeks. But we're less than 31 hours away from the first poll closures (Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia close at 7:00 PM Eastern Standard Time. So, let's wait to see what the results are.

ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE: Harris's appearance on SNL signals that she's comfortable with where the race was at that point. She's going to win.

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In the presidential race, however, popular vote is irrelevant, except within a given state. At a minimum, it means a poll that isn't focused on a given state's electoral college votes must be much more detailed and nuanced to be meaningful.

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Nov 4·edited Nov 4

And yet, not only national polls, but swing state polls also exhibited the same behavior. That's MI, WI, PA, NC, GA, AZ, and NV. 7 states. Same margin of error results.

I call bullshit on the polls.

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I think that's what make's J. Ann Seltzer's poll so interesting. She is the poll that is incredibly accurate - that ironically suggests that national polls are inaccurate. That there are so many nuances amongst voters - like how Iowa's older female voters are really different than their counterparts in other states.

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Yes, though I suspect they are not that different in Wisconsin or Pennsylvania than they are in Iowa.

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Nov 4·edited Nov 4

This is also my best guess. I just see too many tea leaves pointing towards Harris and Dems beating the national polls:

1. Selzer and non-herding kinds of polls look good for her (Selzer REALLY good).

2. Pew identifies an enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats since Harris joined the race.

3. Per the above, Harris seems to be drawing big crowds for rallies while Trump's are dwindling.

4. Polls for down-ticket races (Senate/House/Gov) show Democrats running ahead of the top of the ticket and even with or better than the Biden year.

5. Early voting seems to show a high percentage of women voters and high turnout.

6. Dems have been overperforming in elections since the last midterms.

7. The media cycles in the last week of the campaign have been TERRIBLE for Trump (Puerto Rico comments, etc.).

Pollsters often get caught fighting the last war. My strong suspicion is that the national polls and most polls in swing states are over-fitting their models to what the electorate looked like in 2016 and 2020. They are worried about missing Trump voters again. They may actually be missing Harris voters now. This honestly looks like reverse 2016 to me, when polls were too sure that Hillary could carry the old Obama coalition and people ignored all the other signs of trouble for her (which were similar to the above list).

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You've stated many of the reasons that I decided to hold back for reasons related to brevity. One other thing related to #6, Dems have been outperforming the GOP since 2018 and have blunted a supposed and expected Red Wave in '22. I believe that the electorate has grown tired of the non-performance of the extremists in the GOP and it's dragging down the party as a whole. Trump is part of that chaos and inaction and voters are tiring of that ish. They want to move on. Harris is not just giving them permission to do so, she's making it a purpose to renew the American spirit. Hence, your #2, #3, #4, and #5.

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We can only hope!

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I certainly hope you’re right.

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One in five prospective GOP electors for the electoral college in swing states in 2024 have connections to being fake electors in 2020

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/04/trump-fake-electors-return-election-denial-00186977

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Nov 4·edited Nov 4

If a person has been a fake elector in the past (meaning the 2020 Presidential Election), you should be in jail, not a prospective elector in the current election. But that's stating the obvious, I suppose.

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I had the fortune (not) to be told by a fake elector “Be good!” It was a public setting and I kept my vomit back.

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CAL

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[MTEN] Cal Completes Play At Jack Kramer Club, SMU

https://calbears.com/news/2024/11/3/mens-tennis-cal-completes-play-at-jack-kramer-club-smu.aspx

ROLLING HILLS ESTATES – The California men's tennis team finished a dominant run at the Dennis Rizza Intercollegiate Classic on Sunday, as the Golden Bears won 12 out of 13 matches in the three-day tournament at the Jack Kramer Club.

Cal's Alex Aney, Derrick Chen and Mikey Wright began singles matches against three Arizona Wildcats on Saturday, but rain halted the action. Once play resumed Sunday, Chen defeated Alexander Rozin 6-4, 6-2 and Wright beat Santiago Padilla Cote 6-7(1), 6-4, 6-4, while Aney fell to Oskar Jansson 6-7(5), 6-2, 6-2.

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[MPOLO] Bears Fall To USC In Overtime

https://calbears.com/news/2024/11/3/mens-water-polo-bears-fall-to-usc-in-overtime.aspx

BERKELEY – The No. 7 California men's water polo team came back late to force overtime Sunday in its 2024 home finale against No. 2 USC, but the Golden Bears couldn't find the back of the net in the extra periods, falling 17-15.

Bende Pardi's goal with 10 seconds remaining in regulation sent the game into overtime, but it would be Cal's (11-10, 1-4) final goal of the day as the Trojans (17-4, 2-3) scored the only two goals of the extra period.

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[FH] Cal Begins Postseason Play

https://calbears.com/news/2024/11/3/field-hockey-cal-begins-postseason-play.aspx

The California field hockey team heads east for its first-ever appearance in the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship after qualifying in its first season in the league. The eighth-seeded Golden Bears will face off against the No. 1-seeded and ACC regular season champion North Carolina on Tuesday for a chance to advance to the semifinals. Coverage will be available on ACCNX and via live stats.

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[VB] Bears Swept At Miami

https://calbears.com/news/2024/11/3/volleyball-bears-swept-at-miami.aspx

CORAL GABLES, Fla. – California volleyball hoped to snap a five-game losing streak Sunday in the program's first-ever matchup with Miami, but the Hurricanes (16-7, 7-5 ACC), riding high off a Friday-night five-set win over No. 5 Stanford, carried that momentum into their match with the Golden Bears (10-14, 2-10) and winning 25-16, 25-21, 25-17.

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[MSOC] Cal Beats No. 22 Stanford 1-0 In Big Clasico

https://calbears.com/news/2024/11/1/mens-soccer-cal-beats-no-22-stanford-1-0-in-big-clasico.aspx

STANFORD – Kevin Carmichael scored the game-winning goal and Marco Brougher made four saves to power the California men's soccer team to a 1-0 victory over 22nd-ranked Stanford in the Big Clasico and regular-season finale on Friday night at Cagan Stadium.

Cal improved its record to 6-7-2 (2-4-2 ACC) with the win in its first ACC game against its longtime rival, whose record is now 8-4-4 (3-2-3).

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[WBB]Cal Hosts Saint Mary’s To Open Regular Season

https://calbears.com/news/2024/11/1/womens-basketball-cal-hosts-saint-marys-to-open-regular-season.aspx

BERKELEY – The California women's basketball team officially opens its 2024-25 campaign by hosting Saint Mary's on Monday at Haas Pavilion. Tipoff is set for 6 p.m. The Golden Bears own a 22-5 series advantage between the teams and have won six straight against the Gaels dating back to the 2016-17 season.

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[MBB] Bears Host CSU Bakersfield In Season Opener

https://calbears.com/news/2024/11/1/mens-basketball-bears-host-csu-bakersfield-in-season-opener.aspx

BERKELEY – The California men's basketball team opens the 2024-25 season at home Monday night against CSU Bakersfield. Tipoff is slated for 8:30 p.m. PT – or approximately 40 minutes following the conclusion of the Cal women's basketball season opener against Saint Mary's at 6 p.m. – on ACC Network Extra (ACCNX). Fans with men's basketball tickets can claim a free ticket to the women's game.

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Nov 4Liked by SGBear

Go Bears!!! We've got the Axe!

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Nov 4Liked by SGBear

GO BEARS

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DBD AV CLUB

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Grim Adventures of Billy and Mandy was a favorite back in the day.

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Saw Anora, the new film from Sean Baker (Tangerine, The Florida Project, Red Rocket). Best movie I've seen this year. But don't take my word for it. Anora won the Palme d'Or at Cannes last May. https://youtu.be/p1HxTmV5i7c?si=9CVyyDDImcRh6zH6

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