Pac-12 Men's Basketball Conference Preview

It's Arizona, then everyone else.

Photo courtesy Don Shennum

The recently concluded Pac-12 football season had the conference going out on top. Nine of the conference teams were ranked at some point in the season. Multiple teams were prominent in the BCS rankings. UW is still in contention for the national championship. Eight teams made it to a bowl.

For the men’s basketball season to reach similar heights, it will have to be on some deeper-than-expected NCAA tournament runs. Top to bottom, the conference is not as strong as the past few years. The conference is currently dead even at #6/#7 with the Mountain West Conference in conference rankings. The Pac-12 has a cumulative .6512 winning percentage, just behind the MWC and just ahead of the Atlantic-10. Arizona and Washington have both overperformed, but USC and UCLA have failed to meet their expectations and have ranked up questionable losses to CSU-Northridge and Long Beach State, respectively.

There are only two near-certainties this season; Arizona will finish first, and Oregon State will finish last. The other ten teams all have the potential to finish in the top tier. They also have the potential to not live up to their own hype, and finish in the bottom tier. Or, they beat up on each other and you have a mass of teams finishing somewhere between 12-8 and 8-12.

In general, my rankings are indicative of teams continuing to be who they are up to this point. Barring exceptional circumstances like injuries or midseason regime changes, most teams stay consistent over the last 2/3 of the season as they were in the first 1/3 of the season. The wildness comes in conference tournament play, where anyone can get hot enough over a 4-day stretch to greatly improve their postseason chances. But that’s an article for March. Here’s my predicted order of finish.

1. Arizona (9-2, KenPom #3)

   Floor: NCAA Sweet 16
   Ceiling: NCAA Champion

Arizona has performed above expectations so far, with wins at Duke, and at home against Michigan State and Wisconsin. The two losses are to top-10 ranked Purdue and FAU.

This is a deep team, with 10 players averaging over 10 minutes/game. They have exceptional talent at all positions. UNC transfer Caleb Love is leading the backcourt, averaging nearly 17 points a game. Senior center Oumar Ballo is a dominant force inside. He collected 21 rebounds in the loss to FAU.

2. Colorado (9-2, KenPom #24)
   Floor: NCAA First round
   Ceiling: Elite Eight

The Buffaloes are the only team capable of edging out Arizona for the conference championship. They have all-conference level returnees in Trista Da Silva (16 points/game, 6 rebounds) and KJ Simpson(20 points/game, 5 assists). 5-star freshman Cody Williams (14 points/game on 62% shooting) is living up to the hype.

3. Oregon (8-3, KenPom #48)

   Floor: NIT
   Ceiling: NCAA Sweet 16

They’ve beaten four good-but-not-great P5 schools, but also have home losses to Santa Clara, Alabama, and Syracuse. I believe in Dana Altman. The conference is loaded with skilled big men like UCLA’s Adem Bona and Arizona’s Oumar Ballo. When healthy, the Ducks may have the best frontline with N’Faly Dante (16 points/game and 21 rebounds/game) and Nate Bittle (13 points and 6 rebounds per game). Bittle has been limited to only three games due to a wrist injury, and is out for a few more weeks.

4. Washington (8-3, KenPom #60)

   Floor: NIT
   Ceiling: NCAA Sweet 16

I am not ready for a Mike Hopkins salvation year. Always a skilled recruiter, Hopkins has been challenged by in-game management and maximizing his talent. He was almost let go in the last offseason, but the football team’s success helped give Hopkins a bit more leeway entering this year. They have a nice win over Gonzaga, and their losses are to three top-40 KenPom teams. They will go as far as all conference player Keion Brooks Jr. (20 points, 8 rebounds per game) takes them.

5. Utah (9-2, KenPom #31)

   Floor: NIT
   Ceiling: Elite Eight

Craig Smith enters his 3rd year at Ute’s head coach. After finishing last year 17-15, Smith looks to break through and breaking into the top tier of the conference while making his first postseason appearance. The Utes start four seniors, and have a frontline of 7’ 1” Lawson Lovering and all-conference 7’ 0” Branden Carlson. This is a solid and experienced team, but may lack an explosive playmaker to challenge for the top of the conference.

The teams above are the top tier. I could argue 2-5 juggling places, but it feels like there is a line between the above 5 and the below 7.

Let’s talk about luck. KenPom actually has a rating for this, defined as “…the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method.” Out of 362 teams, Cal is ranked 356th. There is one PAC-12 team below them…..

6. UCLA (5-6, KenPom #84)

   Floor: Bottom 4, No postseason
   Ceiling: Top 3 conference, NCAA Sweet 16

Somehow, UCLA is 361st in luck rankings. They have won 5 games by a combined 108 points, and lost 6 games by a combined 33 points. UCLA was a fringe top-25 preseason selection, but it has not clicked for them yet. They have lost 4 in a row, including home losses to CSU-Northridge and Maryland. The tandem of Adem Bona and Adey Mara should be putting up all world stats, but are only averaging 17 points and 11 rebounds combined. In my limited watching of their games, it looks like they are still figuring out how to play as a cohesive unit. I think Mick Cronin can make the necessary adjustments and challenge for an NCAA berth, but he faces an uphill battle.

7. Cal (4-7, KenPom #161)
   Floor: Bottom 2 finish
   Ceiling: Top 5 conference, NIT

Yes, I think the luck factor will regress to the mean for both UCLA and Cal, allowing them to finish on the upper side of the middle-of-the-Pac group. Cal’s top seven players are all healthy heading into conference play. They have been competitive in every game. If you pencil in 4 losses to Arizona and Colorado, I think you can pencil in 4 wins over Oregon State and Washington State. That leaves the other 12 games to aim for splits at worst. If they continue to improve and luck goes there way, a 12-8 record is obtainable. If they continue to struggle with turnovers and do not tighten their defense, than 8-12 or worse is a possibility.

8. USC (6-5, KenPom #46)
   Floor: Bottom 4 conference, no postseason
   Ceiling: top 4 conference, NCAA first round

USC has been unlucky as well, ranking 323rd. I just don’t think they will work their way out of the early season hole, and may continue to regress. For as much trust as I have in Altman and Cronin to improve their teams, I do not have the same faith in Andy Enfield. Isaiah Collier and Boogie Ellis form arguably the best backcourt in the conference, but have only a 1:1 assist to turnover ratio for the year. Something just doesn’t feel right with this team.

9. Arizona State (6-5, KenPom #118)

   Floor: Bottom 3 conference, no postseason
   Ceiling: Top 5 conference, NCAA bubble

The Sun Devils come into conference play losers of three straight, including a 19-point home drubbing to a solid Northwestern team. Bobby Hurley will need some late-season magic once again if he hopes to return to postseason play.

10. Stanford (5-5, KenPom #94)

    Floor: Bottom 2 conference, no postseason

    Ceiling: Top 6 conference, NIT

There is nothing positive to latch onto in Stanford’s season so far. Their 5 wins have been over no-name programs. Their losses include a 22-point home defeat to a 6-7 Northern Iowa squad. Spencer Jones and Maxime Reynaud are a solid returning duo to build around. However, the incoming class featuring Andrej Stojakovic have not greatly impressed as of yet. Stanford may end up regretting bringing Jerod Haase back.

11. Washington State (9-2, KenPom #65)

    Floor: Last in conference, no postseason
    Ceiling: top 5 finish, NCAA bubble

Washington State has 9 wins against a strength of schedule in the 320’s. Their best win was against a solid Boise State team. Kyle Smith is an excellent coach. I don’t think he has the roster talent to compete with the bulk of the conference.

12. Oregon State (8-3, KenPom #192)
    Floor: Last in conference, Coach Tinkle fired midseason
    Ceiling: Top 7 conference, NIT

The Beaver’s wins are against the likes of Linfield, UC-Davis, and Idaho State. They have been walloped in the three games against P5 opponents. Coach Tinkle went with a total roster overhaul 2 years ago, and flipped a large chunk of the roster this offseason. Unlike other programs, he went with a youth approach, as the roster features 16 freshman or sophomores. Jordan Pope will push for all-conference honors, averaging 17 points a game. But that’s about all this program currently has going for it.

Conference played kicked off Thursday night. This article was finished prior to the first games played. Cal starts out tonight against Arizona, then will face the Sun Devils Sunday afternoon.