Early Cal Football 2025 projections

Fall camp is just around the corner and pre-season prognostications have begun.

photo via Calbears.com

Would you believe that we’re less than 7 weeks away from Cal football, and only 6 weeks away from the return of college football generally? Fall camp will be starting shortly, and before you know it Cal will be back in Memorial Stadium for another season.

In fact, we’re close enough that a number of publications have already released conference previews of one variety or another. We here at WFC don’t usually get heavy into season preview content until August and/or the beginning of fall camp, but now seems as good a time as any to take a look at what the neutral consensus is for our Bears as a way to frame the expected narrative of the season.

The Projections

ESPN’s Bill Connelly ($):

Prediction: 12th in the ACC, 6-6 record

Excerpt:

The defense graded out better last season and returns more experience, but while I'm not sure what to expect from new offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin, I really like the upside of the transfers there. The schedule is kind, featuring only two opponents projected better than 40th, and if either of the two athletic QBs plays at a solid level and the god of close games smiles on the Golden Bears -- two mighty ifs that may not come to fruition -- Cal could top last year's win total.

Athlon Sport’s Steven Lassan:

Prediction: 15th in the ACC

Excerpt:

The program won six games in their ACC debut last season but also lost five contests by one score. The in-season chaos carried into the offseason with a handful of key players transferring out of Berkeley, new coordinators on both sides of the ball, and former NFL coach Ron Rivera hired as general manager of the program.

Phil Steele/On3:

Prediction: 14th in the ACC

Excerpt (not written by Steele):

Although California didn’t bring in any jaw-dropping talent this offseason, the team won’t face Miami or Clemson in the regular season this fall, which could allow them to finish with a surprisingly strong record.

CBS Sports’ Chip Patterson predicts every game for ever ACC team, and has Cal finishing with a record of 7-5 (4-4), which would be good for a five way tie from 7th to 11th place in the ACC. I like this guy’s work because he has Stanford at 0-8.

Excerpt:

. . . the schedule provides the chance to go 3-1 in the non-con and string together a respectable conference showing with no Clemson or Miami on the schedule and some coin-flip games (Duke, North Carolina) taking place on their home turf.

Patterson follows this up with a best-case/worst-case article, listing Cal’s range of outcomes between 4-8 and 8-4.

Bonus related prediction: Richard Johnson and Alex Kirschner of Split Zone Duo recorded a podcast where they ranked coaches most likely to get fired this year. Justin Wilcox ranked 7th on Johnson’s list and 2nd on Kirschner’s list. Meanwhile, CBS Sports polled their entire staff and ranked EVERY coach by hot seat rating and put Wilcox as the coach with the 15th hottest seat, for whatever that’s worth.

Consensus

The national consensus has Cal has a middle-to-low-tier ACC team, more likely to struggle for bowl contention than to compete in the ACC. Most previews are balancing out the proven production Cal lost in the portal with the talent that was brought in. And most commentators find notice for mild optimism because Cal’s schedule avoids the ACC’s biggest heavyweights.

. . . which, yeah, if that sounds like what everybody predicts for Cal almost every year in the latter half of Justin Wilcox’s tenure, can you really be surprised? Since Cal has fully embraced the portal, Wilcox’s tenure has been defined by frequent roster turnover and a bunch of roughly .500 seasons, so why should anybody predict anything different?

The one thing that IS different? The idea that Justin Wilcox’s job may not be entirely secure. With the power battle within Cal’s administration resolved and with Jim Knowlton out the door, will .500 football be enough for job security any more in Berkeley?