Evans Hall: 1 Win, 2 Quarterbacks, and 3 Take-Aways

It's good to watch and then break down football into numbers cause that's what I am about

O Football, my love, thou
Art like good health; I never knew till now
How precious, till I lost thee. Now I see
The beauty whole, because I yearn for thee.

• Adam Mickiewicz from heaven once I made him watch Cal beat #25 UCLA via our spiritual link made from wódka.

Credit: Rob Hwang

The other day I tried to explain it to my international co-workers what made me so obsessed with football. I rattled off several explanations raging from the classic “football is chess where pieces are 6’4” 250lbs and run at 19 mph” to the sublime chase of the high I felt when Cal beat #25 UCLA. In the end I just reminded myself how much I love watching football, and especially Cal football. It is nice to be semi-alive in the ACC!

However, being very on brand for myself, I will push aside my emotion and love for the game in service of boiling it down into numbers.

Yes, I am fun at parties.

The Good: Cal’s Second Half Defense

Cal rolled into the game like most Americans do on the 1st day back at work after a long vacation: slowly figuring out what we’re supposed to be doing that folks are paying us money for, reading through emails of folks who you are semi-sure are your team-mates… or nemesis?

However, after lunch, once the second cup of coffee, and a small pep talk in the bathroom hits the Cal defense proceeded to lock in and lock down UC Davis’ offense.

In the 2nd half of the game the Cal defense faced Davis on 7 drives that ended the following ways:

UC Davis did not leave it’s own side of the field till Q4 where they failed to convert the 4th down, after rolling off 48 plays in the 1st half they were limited to 25 in the 2nd half, 11 of which were effectively in garbage time.

Another piece of evidence is the fact that Cal had QB Miles Davis in hell. 30% of his drop-backs were under pressure, the only way he wasn’t sacked is because he would just throw the ball away or just miss going 2/14 for 17 yards and 2 INTs on pressured drop backs.

Cal defense put the clamps on Davis in a way we haven’t seen in a very long time. I hope this translates in the future. Harris and Nohl are the truth, can Yaites step up in the place of Williams who had a rough 1st half?

The Meh: Fernando Mendoza is probably just an FBS Average QB

Cal came into the game with 2 QBs and despite Wilcox’s insistence on giving both players a possible chance in the presser, I think that keeping Nando in the game is the play. Nando was able to generate a consistent, middle of the road offense with his arm.

Fernando was kept clean overall in the game. However, the fact that he was only able to generate 7.6 YPA in those situations is a disappointing statistic. He has a chance to get better as he develops more chemistry with Nyziah Hunter who climbed from being WR3 to starting, and Mikey Matthews who missed a chunk of fall camp due to injury.

Nick in his column earlier this week mentioned that the Cal offense had 2 points per drive. But I will have to pushback and break down the points per drive by QB. Unlike any other position the QB is the position with the highest impact on the drive by drive outcomes.

Nando’s drives are as follows:

1. 3 and out,

2. TD after starting on the Cal 29,

3. Calloway fumble TD,

4. 3 and out,

5. 3 and out,

6. TD after starting on the Cal 45,

7. FG after starting on the Cal 41,

8. TD after starting on the Davis 29.

So on 8 drives Nando had the team score 24 points, so 3 points per drive. That’s very good over a span of a season (would be 12th best in 2023) but this is Davis’ defense, can he hold up? Plus the fact that we either scored or had a 3 and out is… concerning.

His overall passing chart showcases a lot of quick efficient passes but from a position of weakness where he’s passing on 2nd and longs. What is concerning is the 1/5 on 3rd down conversions when passing the ball, we need to be better at this.

The Bad: Going 2/13 on 3rd downs is unacceptable.

If I had access to the database I have for the game I would be able to give a better breakdown of how we arrived that this stat line.

But having to face 13 3rd downs is unacceptable, to only convert 2 of them is worse, to have to face an average of 6.5 is horrendous.

This is tied to the fact that Cal had a 18-8 run-pass ratio where the runs on 1st down generated a measly 3.2 YPC causing us to be behind schedule (you ideally want 4+ yards on 1st downs) on the series. Not that the passing was better with 22 yards on 8 attempts and 4 completions.

1st down efficiency and 3rd down conversion rates will remain a statistic I will be paying attention to throughout the season. Because we have been there before, and the devil we know is named Bill Musgrave.

…

Oh god is Bloesch going to Musgrave us??? (n = 1 is a bad sample size but my subconscious needs to prepare for this season eventuality)