Evans Hall: One Must Imagine Wilcox Happy

Overwork, absurdist intrusive thoughts, and one man's attempt to read Camus and watch Cal Football

Oski During his French Absurdist Era circa 1950s, by Ben

There is something absurd about watching Cal football.

Every offseason it goes through changes: assistant coaches come and go, players enter and exit via the portal, even the shape of the university’s skyline molds to the movement of time. And yet, as if ordained by Oski himself; the cumulative result of an offseason of getting ready to roll the boulder up the hill of college football only for it to find it’s way back down to it’s resting point: a 6-6 season give or take 1 win/loss where a below average offense that has blocking issues is carried by moments of individual brilliance and an above average defense that can find a way to say “MINE” whilst clutching the ball taken away from the opposing offense.

[…][O]ne sees merely the whole effort of a body straining to raise the huge stone, to roll it, and push it up a slope a hundred times over; one sees the face screwed up, the cheek tight against the stone, the shoulder bracing the clay-covered mass, the foot wedging it, the fresh start with arms outstretched, the wholly human security of two earth-clotted hands. At the very end of his long effort measured by skyless space and time without depth, the purpose is achieved.

Then [Wilcox] watches the stone rush down in a few moments toward that lower world whence he will have to push it up again toward the summit. He goes back down to the plain […]

The man mentioned in the quote? Justin Douglas Wilcox age 48, hailing Junction City, Oregon and as of 2022 per the Cal Media Guide single and yet married to the toil of Cal football.

The one man of the last 9 years at the helm of the program and the changes surrounding it. Modern Sisyphus.

“He admits that he stands at a certain point on a curve that he acknowledges having to travel to its end.” - Cal offenses faces long 2nd downs due to 1st down foibles

Poor 1^st down efficiency on the ground with middling play through the air.

One should not have to rely on a true freshman QB’s arm with mediocre skill players for 1^st down production. The lack of at least some semblance of production on the ground is troubling. Not only is the running game inefficient, the low average yards gained indicates a lack of boom in the pike of busts…

Which is something we have dealt with nearly every Cal season sans the reign of Laird the Bookish and that 2023 season with Ott leading the way. And they were saddled with a very poor passing game that struggled with pass blocking or catching the ball. There was never a time where we were able to say “this offense can be relied upon” besides the brief mirage like stretch where Chase Garbers took it to Ole Miss and had a chance at glory against ASU only to be betrayed by his clavicle.

“Let me repeat: all this has been said over and over. I am limiting myself here to making a rapid classification and to pointing out these obvious themes.” Or Cal still can’t figure out it’s own way to manage 2nd and 3rd down situations consistently

This sets up the well-known issues with being put in negative scripts on 2^nd and 3^rd downs.

When looking at the breakdown by down we’re rancid on anything except for trying for the big play on 3^rd down because that’s the only way we can get a conversion. The passing game stills allows us to successfully move the ball on 1^st down only to have the success rate crater the deeper into the down we are especially when we elect to run on early downs.

Looking at this in another way we should check out the good old fashioned standard deviation of PPA. The passing offense remains more or less as volatile as the national standard. I was honestly expecting more madness with the high highs of JKS’ passing with the low lows of his interceptions or miscues on key downs.

What was shocking was how relatively volatile the rushing defense is. Having Wazzu, OkState and UNC as neighbors defensively is a bad thing, regardless of where OU and Alabama are. I think it has to do with the defensive line and LBs getting either worn down by the end of the game, and poor run integrity leading to massive busts in run integrity due to the issues we have with Cade missing more tackles than ever and Luke Ferelli right behind him.

Per PFF

On the flip side the passing defense has been stable… but why doesn’t it feel that way?

Going back to explosive play and success rates, this time on defense, we can see the same trend we have seen in the past: the defense holds well in early downs only to give up massive gains on 2^nd or 3^rd downs. Now on average the defense does an average job on 3^rd down, but when they do allow a conversion on those downs it just feels crushing since it is usually an explosive play.

Which makes sense, we’re 40^th in the country in allowed 3^rd down conversion rates on defense but each of the conversions we allows is back breaking. A feature in the Wilcox team for years now.

And even then we’re still a painful defense to play against. Teams have to spend time breaking through the defense to score points. Sure, it is not the peak of 2019 where we carved our own region. But being on the slightly more painful side to play against has been the Wilcox MO for the last 5 years.

Conclusion

Did I prove that Justin Wilcox is indeed Sisyphus pushing the rock of Cal football under the watchful eye of Oski only to have to slide back down to 6-6 (give or take 1 win)?

No. That would require the me who isn’t pulling 9-10 hour workdays…

But what I am trying to convey is the feeling of watching the same team on the field lead by the same man surrounded by constant change in the air and land. I believe that we’re watching someone who earnestly is trying change his staff and players, and learning from past mistakes (see how he has tried to learn by changing the type of OC he hires, and yet is still finding ways to stay the same. Whether it is the gravitational pull of what Cal football is in the 2020s or the flaws he himself carries both consciously or sub-consciously.

I shudder to imagine what it means to try so hard, to fight year to year to breakthrough only to end up in the same spot, at the halfway point of the mountain.

One always finds one’s burden again. But [Wilcox] teaches the higher fidelity that negates the gods and raises rocks. He too concludes that all is well. This universe henceforth without a master seems to him neither sterile nor futile. Each atom of that stone, each mineral flake of that night filled mountain, in itself forms a world. The struggle itself toward the heights is enough to fill a man’s heart. One must imagine [Wilcox] happy.