Cal Football 2025 Analysis: How to Sustain Drives and Influence People
Rethinking the playbook for success
For the past three weeks Cal has been trying to find its offensive identity and the early slate of games allowed Cal to experiment. It’s now worth asking, is the experiment working?
Last Saturday’s game against San Diego State highlighted bad habits and tendencies that need to change if Cal is to take full advantage of this season. Looking at drive length, success rate by down, and play mix by down, a few takeaways are clear.
Too Many Short, Unproductive Possessions
The drive length distribution tells one part of the story. The SDSU game mirrored the issues in the first three games: many drives ended after just a handful of plays and never allowed the offense to establish their rhythm.
The outlier in the SDSU game was Cal’s 10-minute-long march down the field on its first offensive possession of the game after forcing SDSU to punt. But this drive failed to culminate in any points.
First Downs Are Torpedoing Drives
The success rates by down show the problem starkly: Cal is performing poorly on first down, with success dipping below 15% against SDSU. The Bears had more success on second down, but being behind schedule early is a lot to load on subsequent downs and puts more pressure on the Cal offense.
Catch-Up Passes Are Predictable
The play mix percentage shows that in the first three games, Cal leaned on the run on first down, while later downs skewed toward passing. Against SDSU, each down skewed more toward passing. Lack of success early allows defenses to key on a catch-up pass on later downs.
The Downstream Effects
The Defense Is On the Field Too Long. Short, unproductive possessions put tremendous strain on the defense. Sustaining drives may be the single best defensive adjustment Cal can make. Every additional first down buys a break for the defense.
Too Much Pressure from Playing Catch-Up. You could see the decisions players were making to put the team back on track. The defense cannot be the crutch for the offense it was in the first 3 games—nor can heroics by Sagapolutele salvage the Cal offense.
The Good News: Some Easy Pivots
Prioritize sustainability over explosiveness. This will keep the defense rested and prevent our QB from feeling pressure to make heroic throws.
No momentum-crushing penalties! More discipline is key.
Cal can easily get back on track if they play with discipline and focus. But no one player can do it all. The Bears will need to execute together and adjust—but if they do they not only stand to win, they also have a chance to make a statement that this is really a new era. Go Bears!
The way to turn DeJ loose to create havoc is to use him the same way Tom Brady used his relatively short but quick/elusive slot receivers. Get the ball to them on short passes (slants etc) designed so the LB needs to cover him (which would be impossible) and watch him so his punt return number from there. Couple this with better more frequent use of the big tight end with excellent hands (Brady had Gronk and while we don’t have anyone close we do have a big tight end with excellent hands…..Mini). This will create more space for the wide receivers….and perhaps even the running game. It’s fun to play Monday morning QB…..lol
Cal's running game sucks! Unless that improves this will be a long frustrating season. Harsin better get off his butt and get some imagination into that side of the offense.