Making Sense of Cal's Charmin Smith Extension

How do you balance off-court factors with on-court success?

In five years in Berkeley, Charmin Smith has a collective record of 56-80, and a 17-62 record in Pac-12 play. Cal has nevertheless decided to extend Smith for another three seasons, through the 2028-29 season.

Coldly looking at a coach’s win/loss record is not great analysis. Nevertheless, it’s somewhat shocking that Jim Knowlton and Cal would elect to extend a coach with a conference record virtually identical to that of what Mark Fox managed in four years at Cal (17-61). I mean, less than two months ago I thought that Smith was more likely to get FIRED that to receive an extension.

What went into Jim Knowlton’s decision: The optimists’ take

Sure, Charmin Smith’s first three years were incredibly rough - three straight last place conference finishes is something that has never happened in the history of Cal WBB. But there were extenuating circumstances: Charmin Smith inherited an unenviable roster situation, when was hit with an unprecedented injury hellstorm, and then COVID.

But those years, however painful, weren’t a fair representation of her coaching ability and as a result aren’t relevant to determine if an extension is warranted.

Meanwhile, in the last two seasons, Smith has used the transfer portal to good effect, improving by a couple games in the win column in 2022-23, then taking a larger leap to 19-15 this season. Cal was on the fringes of NCAA tournament consideration, made a respectable showing in the WBIT tournament, and was generally a solid team.

Meanwhile, Smith’s culture building kept the team together through tough times, and as of right now none of her current roster has entered the transfer portal.

And perhaps most importantly, Smith has already signed a four player recruiting class ranked 23rd in the country by ESPN that could be the foundation to a return to NCAA tournament action. Why would you fire her now and likely have to start all over from scratch with an empty roster?

What went into Jim Knowlton’s decision: The realists’ take

Cal is simultaneously broke and lacking for any kind of vision within athletic department leadership, meaning that no non-revenue coach will ever be fired absent something that is McKeever-level embarrassing. Charmin Smith is, in fact, the opposite of McKeever - she’s a truly inspirational figure who uses her platform to advocate for all kinds of positive societal change.

I’m not necessarily saying that winning games is entirely subsumed by money concerns . . . but it’s probably true that only truly hopeless performances would lead to either dismissal or letting a coach run out their contract before going in another direction. Charmin Smith’s on-court performance didn’t reach that level, and she’s an off-court positive, so if you’re not going to fire her you’re just as well off extending her to give her tenure the greatest chance of success.

Nick’s take

I don’t know how much of Cal’s decision making was one scenario or the other as described above or some sort of mix, but the decision has been made. What are the chances that it will succeed?

The bad news is that the road isn’t getting any easier. When Cal struggled over the last few years, the depth and strength of the Pac-12 was frequently cited as a reason. But the ACC is unlikely to be any easier. Counting Stanford, nine ACC teams made the NCAA tournament and went a collective 13-9, highlighted by NC State’s Final Four run. Eight ACC teams are bringing in top 25 recruiting classes per ESPN, and seven ACC teams make their top 25 for next season, two more than any other conference. Over the past few years the Pac-12 was probably the best conference in the country, but next year it projects to be the ACC.

Which means to win more games, Cal will have to rely entirely upon internal improvement.

It’s all but impossible to make specific projections right now because it’s far from clear what Cal’s final roster will be. We do know that seven players - Leilani McIntosh, Michelle Onyiah, Ila Lane, Ornela Muca, Alma Elsnitz, Kemery Martin, and McKayla Williams - were honored on senior day and so it’s probably safe to assume that all of them will be moving on from Cal in one fashion or another. Meanwhile, Ioanna Krimili has announced her return for a final year of eligibility. Until I hear otherwise, I’ll assume that she will be joined by Cal’s freshmen recruits, plus Marta Suarez, Lulu Twidale, Mia Mastrov, Claudia Langarita, and Anastasia Drosouni. That would still leave a handful of scholarships to potentially add transfers.

But regardless of the exact makeup of Cal’s roster, Charmin Smith is going to have to prove that she has what it takes to build a team that can compete with the best that WBB has to offer.

Even if you throw out some of the earlier results marred by injuries and COVID, Smith’s teams have been plagued by an inability to play consistent defense and turnovers on offense. More broadly, scouting and player development has been a major issue. Smith’s marque top 10 recruiting class of 2020 featured six players, but only one of them (Michelle Onyiah) ended up being a successful rotation player at Cal. Was that a failure of talent identification, or a failure of talent development, or both? I’m hardly qualified to say, but in order for Cal to return to tournament play this latest top 25 class will have to have very different results than prior classes.

More philosophically, I have found myself feeling broadly depressed as a Cal WBB fan over the past month. The sport has exploded in popularity and interest behind a variety of elite talents and teams that have finally captured the attention of fans and media across the country. The sport feels deeper than ever with intriguing talent and programs that are taking winning very seriously.

Cal, meanwhile, feels very far away from being a serious part of the national conversation. At the same time, Cal’s in-state rivals have all been highly successful, including one particular program who happens to employ Cal’s former head coach.

Is Lindsay Gottlieb’s immediate success at USC evidence of her growth as a head coach after time away from the women’s game? Or is it evidence that Cal had an excellent head coach who didn’t have the administrative support necessary to succeed? Are Charmin Smith’s on-court struggles a reflection of her limitations as a coach, or a reflection of the limitations of the administrative support Cal athletics provides?

I don’t know the exact answers to any of these questions. I do know that Cal WBB will enter 2024-25 without any expectations of breaking a five year NCAA tournament drought.

There will be enough intriguing on-court talent for some amount of optimism, and I’ll be rooting very, very hard for a coach who is such an admirable person. But that’s a different thing than winning basketball games.