Cal being down for awhile, as Randle said, is certainly a concern when it comes to recruiting the level of player that can make an immediate difference. Even more troublesome, however, is that Fox has never been the kind of coach that recruits impact players. Of all his strengths (defense and smart kids...that's basically it), recruiting is not one of them, and he and his staff certainly do not coach them up incredibly well once they do get to town, at least on offense.
I understand keeping him around for the 4th year, given the COVID headache...but extending him, when he still has 2 years on his deal, is preposterous.
Cue Calbear91 "Nega-bear" comment in 3...2...1.... ;-)...But what happens after next year, when they lose their top 3 scorers, plus a key bench option, and finish in 10th-12th place yet again? Do you bring him back for a 5th season of more of the same? If not, you're then replacing a coach, and probably half the roster, as you'll have mass departures in this era of the transfer portal and immediate eligibilty...
You didn't start counting high enough Jimmy! But I'm hear now. No one here doubts that Fox has failed to bring in Ivan Rabb, Jason Kidd or Jaylen Brown caliber of players. That's a legit concern, and not nega-Bear. But as others have said, he has done quite well with what he has, and I disagree that hasn't done well to improve the offensive production. Look at Andre Kelly, Lars, KK and others. All have improved all around under Fox. I've seen enough from great teams over the years that only very rarely is a team coached so damn well that their players outperform their talent. Monty was this way. But even so called great coaches, rarely get this "beyond talent" performance from their players. Most famously to me, Romar at UW was a master at recruiting and a dumpster fire of a coach. I loved watching Monty's teams dismantle them with pick and rolls and other set plays when barely a player on Cal was recruited as highly as those UW players. Same thing now at Oregon. So yes, exceptional coaching exists, but is supremely rare. I believe Fox gets every bit out of the players he has, teaching them great defense and playing to an offensive style that suits their best chance to win. The only critique I can see as legit, is recruiting. We agree on that.
So, as I pointed out during our weekend exchange, Andre Kelly, who I think is great, is a textbook example of what you love to see in a player...he has improved pretty much across the board every season. It is awesome to see - hope we see more of it...and while no one is doubting Lars and KK's improvement, the fact remains that despite improvement, they're still fringe P12 caliber players with back-end of the rotation type of offensive skills. But again, we clearly have different takes on the squad, and while I am not the least bit surprised that Fox figures to be back next year, I feel there are still way too many questions about him to warrant an extension.
Where I disagree with you, and maybe even strongly so, is Fox playing an offensive style that suits the players and their best chance to win...this is the style Fox has always played, at Nevada and in Athens - a slow, methodical, unimaginative motion based offense that uses a majority of the shot clock. Not saying you can't win with that, but it sure helps to have players that can succeed in a 1-on-1 setting. An Ed Gray-type scorer would be fantastic...Shepherd tries to, but just is not efficient enough.
I would sure love Ed Gray back, as I watched him play in person all those years. I'd love Kevin Johnson. Can we get Tony Gonzalez back? How about Leon Powe? How about...Yes, we'd love to have these types of players. Agreed. It makes my point. Coaching very rarely can make C level players into A level players. The definition of a great coach is that they can beat you, and then take your players and beat their players. Maybe 1% of coaches are this good. And we all know their names. Cal has had a few them!
So the answer is Fox needs to start recruiting A level players...something he has NEVER done. Expecting that to change just because he is now at Cal is where I get lost.
Where I get really discouraged is that Fox has shown no ability to adapt his system to fit his players skillsets.
And If he was going to get a recruiting lift at Cal, it would have happened already. It's not going to happen all of a sudden after three years of what we have witnessed. Lack of success is one thing, but the unimaginative and down tempo style of basketball is impossible to ignore if there are too few wins to go along with it.
They have to be positive until he's gone, they're not going to be like "Yeah, we're moving on" before they even have a replacement ready.
Mark Fox is probably getting more out of this group than a lot of coaches would, but in the end recruiting is part of the game and he can't recruit whatsoever. This isn't football, it takes one recruiting class to turn things around.
Here is hoping that his buyout is also restructured to be more favorable if the team does not improve next year. I might be in the minority here for just giving him a pass for the pandemic seasons, but even then I don't think he has proven enough to earn an extension.
I don't know if this squad is athletically competitive enough to be consistently successful on offense against p5 talent. We lost to UCSD. That loss in and of itself was inexcusable, tbh.
No argument on the UCSD game...dreadful loss. It was the first game, though, and they probably beat that team by 10 now, just like Wilcox's kids probably beat Nevada or TCU with a few more games under their belts.
But I've watched most of every game, and while this team is definitely far from an NIT/CBI level team, I've nonetheless wondered what a more dynamic offensive mind, or at least a better scheme, could do with this squad. Consider:
Brown, Shepherd, Celestine, Alajiki, Kuany, Obinna and now Roberson are all average/above-average athletically...only Lars and Grant are consistently at an athletic disadvantage when they're on the court...Makale is so banged up with the foot it's tough say, but man he's battling out there. But this team struggles to convert 2-point baskets, and has 6 guys that can hit a 3...would love to see Fox play a more uptempo O that looked to shoot 30 3's a game...just to see what would happen.
Good basketball coaches show substantial team improvement in just the first or second year (see Mick Cronin at UCLA, Eric Musselmen at Arkansas, Nate Oats at Alabama).
It's not like football where it may take a few years given the number of players and coaches deserve a longer runway. In basketball you really only need 2 maybe 3 good players to make a good or even great team.
Why not move on now instead of waiting for maybe moderate improvement next season.
With basketball, a few strong recruits can turn a program around. There's nothing in Fox's history that suggests he's capable of achieving that (and maybe some evidence that he'll lose those players). There's other roles for a guy who can only coach defense besides Head Coach.
Inadequate recruiting is a common thread (and I agree it's not good enough but my opinion is not well educated)... I read elsewhere that CAL is tough to recruit to due to lack of practice facility and other un-named liabilities (apparently besides recent poor records). Can anyone comment on whether or not any reasonable hire could effectively recruit or would be similarly hamstrung? (My gut says we should get some better talent but not up to the level I suspect some others seem to consider a minimum... again, though, I don't really know.)
Well have decades of precedent to suggest we can recruit better than we have recently. I don't personally think the practice facility issue is a limiting a factor like say the style of basketball you play is. High academics will always limit the pool of talent we can target--and it should. But we also have some things working in our favor--mainly a great education, and a diverse student body in a great setting in an urban market.
Tough thing is it’s usually a unique situation to land a game-changing talent like these guys. While you’d love you get a Kidd, a Murray, a Rabb, a Big Lee, a Jaylen, you can also hit pay dirt with a Ryan Anderson, a Lamps, a Jorge...I’d hazard a guess that’s more realistic.
Yeah, I'm not even thinking of the Kidd/Brown level. Those guys are such outliers. You do have to have enough of a talent pool and staff to be semi-attractive for them, but they just kind of impose themselves onto a program. They are so talented that they believe they'll elevate the program on their own. It's more the Patrick Christophers, Theo Robertson, Yogi Stewart, Monty Buckeys, Theo Wallaces, Roy Fishers level guys that we no longer get and that you need year after year to sustain a program.
We are outside the kitchen looking in the window at sausage being made. It looks bad and smells bad, but have to wait to see what the finished product looks like. Again, I thought we would truly suck this year without Bradley, and Fox took this team and made them winners in attitude and effort, winning some unexpected, beating Furd regularly, and losing some close and painful ones. The history of greats at Cal tells us the school can be attractive for recruits with the right coaching pitch. We all agree Fox has to get his coaching staff to up their recruiting game while maintaining academics and integrity, or he will be gone.
What if the chef has been cooking with what the previous chef left them and refused to go shopping except for the meal kit box that got dropped off? and he's been prepping to cook it for 3 years? ;)
I actually thought we would be a better all around team without Bradley...the guys relied on him way too much last year. At times, they have seemed much more balanced, and Shepherd has filled in for Bradley somewhat adequately. Fox's somewhat basic offense doesn't do this squad any favors...this is not Porter Moser's efficient, Loyola Chicago O with backdoor cuts and a strong passing big man.....
I think thats where my concern is. He said they wanted to be more balanced and everyone would need to score. but the usage rates and FGA tell the same story as years past. its just shep filling in for matt's shot attempts
I'm curious who in the Pac 12 runs an offense you think is schematically, systematically better, aside from talent? I watch Pac12, and I see no one who takes what they have and does something schematically superior. We beat Oregon with a steady dose of pick and rolls, and their vaunted coach could never get his team to defend it! We defended them with effective switching and pressure, they couldn't get the ball to drop. Tell me the coach at AZ or UCLA would do any better than Fox with his players? So the critique remains, get better players coach, and then coach them up.
I agree on Larry K. He was a Monty player as you know and got more from his players. Tad looked good when he had good talent, and playing at altitude helps his team be 10% or more better on every night. But this short list is my point. Few coaches can take players to next level of playing. It's what I've learned in my 30+ years of fandom. It's why we loved Tedford right away, scoring 70 or whatever in his first game with players that played so poorly the year before. Wittingham at Utah is the best football coach in the league in my book, for this very reason. Even with the altitude advantage, his teams win without having the talent of many others.
Well, there's no denying that talented players who hit shots make HC's look better. Cronin's teams at Cincinnati routinely had 2H's like Cal did Sat v. Stanford, yet he goes to UCLA with Mickey D's AA like Juzang and tough/efficient guys like Tyger, Jaquez and Riley, etc. and they're in the Final 4. Enfield at SC does pretty well...his Florida Gulf Coast teams were fun to watch.
Fox knows how to coach O one way tho - and it's slooooowwwww....
Cronin's teams are defense first, but he also gives this UCLA enough freedom offensively to be creative in their sets. Those FGC Enfield teams were a blast.
jim.knowlton@berkeley.edu Wrote him a long critique yesterday and he sent a long and thoughtful reply soon after. I may disagree with him on the future of MBB, but I'll hand it to the guy, he has class.
In other words I should go back to mostly ignoring Cal men's basketball.
All signs point to yes.
Yes.
Cal, where average to below average coaches are celebrated and extended.
Replace "Cal" with "You see a place.."
Alright. that might be the best comment of the day
You're definitely the first I've ever seen expressing it.
An eons old commercial for ostensibly one of the most prestigious universities in the world, whose premise is, of all things... A pun? No thanks.
Blind people probably don't appreciate the double meaning
It's You See Berkeley not You See California
The backhalf of what Jerome Randle said is what we all want to say on a higher scale but even he knows this isn't what he left behind
Cal being down for awhile, as Randle said, is certainly a concern when it comes to recruiting the level of player that can make an immediate difference. Even more troublesome, however, is that Fox has never been the kind of coach that recruits impact players. Of all his strengths (defense and smart kids...that's basically it), recruiting is not one of them, and he and his staff certainly do not coach them up incredibly well once they do get to town, at least on offense.
I understand keeping him around for the 4th year, given the COVID headache...but extending him, when he still has 2 years on his deal, is preposterous.
Cue Calbear91 "Nega-bear" comment in 3...2...1.... ;-)...But what happens after next year, when they lose their top 3 scorers, plus a key bench option, and finish in 10th-12th place yet again? Do you bring him back for a 5th season of more of the same? If not, you're then replacing a coach, and probably half the roster, as you'll have mass departures in this era of the transfer portal and immediate eligibilty...
You didn't start counting high enough Jimmy! But I'm hear now. No one here doubts that Fox has failed to bring in Ivan Rabb, Jason Kidd or Jaylen Brown caliber of players. That's a legit concern, and not nega-Bear. But as others have said, he has done quite well with what he has, and I disagree that hasn't done well to improve the offensive production. Look at Andre Kelly, Lars, KK and others. All have improved all around under Fox. I've seen enough from great teams over the years that only very rarely is a team coached so damn well that their players outperform their talent. Monty was this way. But even so called great coaches, rarely get this "beyond talent" performance from their players. Most famously to me, Romar at UW was a master at recruiting and a dumpster fire of a coach. I loved watching Monty's teams dismantle them with pick and rolls and other set plays when barely a player on Cal was recruited as highly as those UW players. Same thing now at Oregon. So yes, exceptional coaching exists, but is supremely rare. I believe Fox gets every bit out of the players he has, teaching them great defense and playing to an offensive style that suits their best chance to win. The only critique I can see as legit, is recruiting. We agree on that.
So, as I pointed out during our weekend exchange, Andre Kelly, who I think is great, is a textbook example of what you love to see in a player...he has improved pretty much across the board every season. It is awesome to see - hope we see more of it...and while no one is doubting Lars and KK's improvement, the fact remains that despite improvement, they're still fringe P12 caliber players with back-end of the rotation type of offensive skills. But again, we clearly have different takes on the squad, and while I am not the least bit surprised that Fox figures to be back next year, I feel there are still way too many questions about him to warrant an extension.
Where I disagree with you, and maybe even strongly so, is Fox playing an offensive style that suits the players and their best chance to win...this is the style Fox has always played, at Nevada and in Athens - a slow, methodical, unimaginative motion based offense that uses a majority of the shot clock. Not saying you can't win with that, but it sure helps to have players that can succeed in a 1-on-1 setting. An Ed Gray-type scorer would be fantastic...Shepherd tries to, but just is not efficient enough.
I would sure love Ed Gray back, as I watched him play in person all those years. I'd love Kevin Johnson. Can we get Tony Gonzalez back? How about Leon Powe? How about...Yes, we'd love to have these types of players. Agreed. It makes my point. Coaching very rarely can make C level players into A level players. The definition of a great coach is that they can beat you, and then take your players and beat their players. Maybe 1% of coaches are this good. And we all know their names. Cal has had a few them!
So the answer is Fox needs to start recruiting A level players...something he has NEVER done. Expecting that to change just because he is now at Cal is where I get lost.
Where I get really discouraged is that Fox has shown no ability to adapt his system to fit his players skillsets.
And If he was going to get a recruiting lift at Cal, it would have happened already. It's not going to happen all of a sudden after three years of what we have witnessed. Lack of success is one thing, but the unimaginative and down tempo style of basketball is impossible to ignore if there are too few wins to go along with it.
Point guard is still a problem.
They have to be positive until he's gone, they're not going to be like "Yeah, we're moving on" before they even have a replacement ready.
Mark Fox is probably getting more out of this group than a lot of coaches would, but in the end recruiting is part of the game and he can't recruit whatsoever. This isn't football, it takes one recruiting class to turn things around.
Here is hoping that his buyout is also restructured to be more favorable if the team does not improve next year. I might be in the minority here for just giving him a pass for the pandemic seasons, but even then I don't think he has proven enough to earn an extension.
I think you could argue he’s getting less out of them on the offensive end.
His offenses have always been inefficient and below average.
They play hard tho…& stay positive.
I don't know if this squad is athletically competitive enough to be consistently successful on offense against p5 talent. We lost to UCSD. That loss in and of itself was inexcusable, tbh.
No argument on the UCSD game...dreadful loss. It was the first game, though, and they probably beat that team by 10 now, just like Wilcox's kids probably beat Nevada or TCU with a few more games under their belts.
But I've watched most of every game, and while this team is definitely far from an NIT/CBI level team, I've nonetheless wondered what a more dynamic offensive mind, or at least a better scheme, could do with this squad. Consider:
Brown, Shepherd, Celestine, Alajiki, Kuany, Obinna and now Roberson are all average/above-average athletically...only Lars and Grant are consistently at an athletic disadvantage when they're on the court...Makale is so banged up with the foot it's tough say, but man he's battling out there. But this team struggles to convert 2-point baskets, and has 6 guys that can hit a 3...would love to see Fox play a more uptempo O that looked to shoot 30 3's a game...just to see what would happen.
Good basketball coaches show substantial team improvement in just the first or second year (see Mick Cronin at UCLA, Eric Musselmen at Arkansas, Nate Oats at Alabama).
It's not like football where it may take a few years given the number of players and coaches deserve a longer runway. In basketball you really only need 2 maybe 3 good players to make a good or even great team.
Why not move on now instead of waiting for maybe moderate improvement next season.
the point stands but the three you named also had SUBSTANTIAL incoming talent via transfer or HS.
[insert "Dis Gon B Gud" gif or "Michael Jackson Eating Popcorn" gif]
Would be a mistake…
With basketball, a few strong recruits can turn a program around. There's nothing in Fox's history that suggests he's capable of achieving that (and maybe some evidence that he'll lose those players). There's other roles for a guy who can only coach defense besides Head Coach.
Inadequate recruiting is a common thread (and I agree it's not good enough but my opinion is not well educated)... I read elsewhere that CAL is tough to recruit to due to lack of practice facility and other un-named liabilities (apparently besides recent poor records). Can anyone comment on whether or not any reasonable hire could effectively recruit or would be similarly hamstrung? (My gut says we should get some better talent but not up to the level I suspect some others seem to consider a minimum... again, though, I don't really know.)
Well have decades of precedent to suggest we can recruit better than we have recently. I don't personally think the practice facility issue is a limiting a factor like say the style of basketball you play is. High academics will always limit the pool of talent we can target--and it should. But we also have some things working in our favor--mainly a great education, and a diverse student body in a great setting in an urban market.
Tough thing is it’s usually a unique situation to land a game-changing talent like these guys. While you’d love you get a Kidd, a Murray, a Rabb, a Big Lee, a Jaylen, you can also hit pay dirt with a Ryan Anderson, a Lamps, a Jorge...I’d hazard a guess that’s more realistic.
Yeah, I'm not even thinking of the Kidd/Brown level. Those guys are such outliers. You do have to have enough of a talent pool and staff to be semi-attractive for them, but they just kind of impose themselves onto a program. They are so talented that they believe they'll elevate the program on their own. It's more the Patrick Christophers, Theo Robertson, Yogi Stewart, Monty Buckeys, Theo Wallaces, Roy Fishers level guys that we no longer get and that you need year after year to sustain a program.
We are outside the kitchen looking in the window at sausage being made. It looks bad and smells bad, but have to wait to see what the finished product looks like. Again, I thought we would truly suck this year without Bradley, and Fox took this team and made them winners in attitude and effort, winning some unexpected, beating Furd regularly, and losing some close and painful ones. The history of greats at Cal tells us the school can be attractive for recruits with the right coaching pitch. We all agree Fox has to get his coaching staff to up their recruiting game while maintaining academics and integrity, or he will be gone.
What if the chef has been cooking with what the previous chef left them and refused to go shopping except for the meal kit box that got dropped off? and he's been prepping to cook it for 3 years? ;)
Ha! Sounds like me in a kitchen...Honey, what did you leave for me to make left overs with?
I actually thought we would be a better all around team without Bradley...the guys relied on him way too much last year. At times, they have seemed much more balanced, and Shepherd has filled in for Bradley somewhat adequately. Fox's somewhat basic offense doesn't do this squad any favors...this is not Porter Moser's efficient, Loyola Chicago O with backdoor cuts and a strong passing big man.....
I think thats where my concern is. He said they wanted to be more balanced and everyone would need to score. but the usage rates and FGA tell the same story as years past. its just shep filling in for matt's shot attempts
I'm curious who in the Pac 12 runs an offense you think is schematically, systematically better, aside from talent? I watch Pac12, and I see no one who takes what they have and does something schematically superior. We beat Oregon with a steady dose of pick and rolls, and their vaunted coach could never get his team to defend it! We defended them with effective switching and pressure, they couldn't get the ball to drop. Tell me the coach at AZ or UCLA would do any better than Fox with his players? So the critique remains, get better players coach, and then coach them up.
Larry K did at Utah. Tad Boyle does at Colorado. Kyle Smith at Wazzu.
i mean we also beat Oregon because their offense could not score to save their life.
I agree on Larry K. He was a Monty player as you know and got more from his players. Tad looked good when he had good talent, and playing at altitude helps his team be 10% or more better on every night. But this short list is my point. Few coaches can take players to next level of playing. It's what I've learned in my 30+ years of fandom. It's why we loved Tedford right away, scoring 70 or whatever in his first game with players that played so poorly the year before. Wittingham at Utah is the best football coach in the league in my book, for this very reason. Even with the altitude advantage, his teams win without having the talent of many others.
Dunno, McKinley Wright was pretty talented. Evan Battey & Jabari Walker are pretty good too...Fox doesn’t get those types of guys very often, if ever.
You’re right about Boulder, tho...definitely a nice advantage.
Wyking fired 3/24/19...Smith hired 3/27/19...Fox hired 3/29/19.
Kyle Smith was <30 minutes from Berkeley...doubt Knowlton’s search firm even reached out, though.
Well, there's no denying that talented players who hit shots make HC's look better. Cronin's teams at Cincinnati routinely had 2H's like Cal did Sat v. Stanford, yet he goes to UCLA with Mickey D's AA like Juzang and tough/efficient guys like Tyger, Jaquez and Riley, etc. and they're in the Final 4. Enfield at SC does pretty well...his Florida Gulf Coast teams were fun to watch.
Fox knows how to coach O one way tho - and it's slooooowwwww....
Cronin's teams are defense first, but he also gives this UCLA enough freedom offensively to be creative in their sets. Those FGC Enfield teams were a blast.
This makes me want to cut myself.
I’m appalled.
Writing Knowlton now. I would encourage everyone who cares to do the same.
How do I get his email?
jim.knowlton@berkeley.edu Wrote him a long critique yesterday and he sent a long and thoughtful reply soon after. I may disagree with him on the future of MBB, but I'll hand it to the guy, he has class.
Sweet, I emailed him yesterday as well but nothing back yet!