Miami Football Offensive Preview
Miami Football Offensive Preview
Absolutely no one can forget the timeless classic that was the 2008 Emerald Bowl. Can Miami finally get revenge for their soul-crushing Emerald/Fight Hunger/Foster Farms/Redbox/SF Bowl defeat?
I know I don’t need to remind you about the night of December 27th, 2008, as we can all remember where we were that day, just like it was yesterday. It would be a historic game etched into the collective consciousness of football fans worldwide. The entire world breathlessly awaited the San Francisco Kraft Fight Hunger Foster Farms Red Box Emerald Bowl. My local USPS deliveryperson told me how eagerly she anticipated the hurt Zack “Pain Train” Follett would inflict on Miami QB Jacory Harris. At the grocery store, the baggage clerk breathlessly recounted what a lockdown corner Syd’Quan Thompson was. My neighbor, the kindergarten teacher, surmised that Cal punter Bryan Anger would give Cal the decisive edge on special teams. The game was all anyone could talk about.
Miami fans then—as they do now—could barely contain their excitement:
Okay, so maybe I am slightly misremembering the hype surrounding the game. Looking back at it now, it’s crazy to think about how much NFL talent Cal had at the time. If there was one thing that you actually remember about the 2008 Emerald Bowl, it’s probably how unstoppable future NFL 1st Rounder (and Olympic sprinter) RB Jahvid Best was in that game (hell, Best’s backup was an NFL 2nd rounder, Shane Vereen). Defensively, Cal had some very talented linebackers (like Zack Follett and Mike Mohamed), a secondary filled with NFL talent, and oh yeah, two future NFL 1st Round defensive linemen in Cameron Jordan and Tyson Alualu. Can you imagine a Cal team with an NFL 1st Round-caliber running back (whose superstardom eclipses even his uber-talented backups), a defense with two big play-making linebackers and a secondary filled with NFL talent? That’d be crazy. Hard to imagine, though. (And I won’t even mention how Miami QB Cam Ward is off to the hottest start at Miami since… Jacory Harris).
Miami is now under the leadership of head coach Mario Cristobal, a former offensive tackle and alumnus who played for the national championship-winning teams in 1989 and 1991. This was the golden era of Miami Hurricane football, but Miami has since been on an unbearable slide into football mediocrity since:
Now, I don’t want to point fingers for why I think this could be, but… have we taken a look at the fans? I can’t place my finger on it exactly, but I think it might be that rival Florida fans just have a better way of, um, showing their support:
After posting 5-7 and 7-6 records in his first two seasons since returning to Miami, Cristobal now has the current team on a 5-0 streak, with Miami fans optimistic that they’ve turned a corner in their return to national prominence. They are currently the Vegas favorites to win the ACC Championship (+110, or 47.6%), have strong odds to make the playoffs (-200, or 66.7%), and the 7th best odds to win the national championship in this year’s 12-team playoff (+1800, or 5.3%). Miami should be favored in all of their matchups the rest of the way (and with FSU looking more beatable than ever). Cristobal has always been known for his recruiting acumen, so it's no surprise that Miami now has a roster loaded with talent.
Miami is currently the #1 offense in the FBS, averaging an eye-popping 594.8 yards per game, and they are 4th in scoring offense with 47.8 points per game. I’d probably temper those numbers a bit by pointing out that Miami has absolutely dominated some weak out-of-conference competition, and finally faced a bit of adversity in opening ACC play, but this is an offense with no shortage of weapons. Miami has the #1 passing offense in the FBS, and plenty of talented running backs they’ve yet to lean on.
Let’s take a deeper dive into that talent.
Quarterback
Miami is led by the very talented Washington State transfer quarterback, Cam Ward. Cal edged Washington State last year in a 42-39 thriller, the start of a Fernando Mendoza-led winning streak that brought Cal to bowl eligibility. Because we’re seeing so many former Pac-12 players in this year’s previews (thanks, Transfer Portal), it’s hard not to refer back to my preview of Cameron Ward from last year, as I feel like many of my points still hold up:
Some key points from last year’s article: he has NFL arm strength, he’s a legitimate dual-threat even though he prefers to keep his eyes downfield and make big plays through the air, he’s extremely comfortable in the pocket (some scouts might reckon he’s too comfortable) extending plays with his legs and can make off-platform throws under pressure. Ward has a natural feel for the pocket and will often dodge the pass rush without ever taking his eyes downfield. Last year, Ward had his biggest struggles against teams with a very strong pass rush, but so far this year he’s shown marked improvement throwing under pressure. To be fair, however, Ward was sacked an astounding 39 times in 12 games last season (3.25 sacks/game), while he’s only been sacked 5 times in 5 games this season (1 sack/game). It’s easier to keep your composure when you’re not being blasted by defensive linemen all game, and Miami is doing a much better job protecting Ward than Washington State’s porous offensive line did last year. Ward had his worst QB rating last week against Virginia Tech, a game in which he was sacked 3 times. Cal managed to sack Ward 6 times in last year’s win.
After last season at Washington State, he initially declared for the NFL Draft, before eventually reversing course and announcing a transfer to Miami. Ward was one of the top QBs in the transfer portal (you may remember the other top QB prospect commanding big bucks; DJ Uiagalelei), and it’s not unreasonable to surmise that Ward was offered more NIL money than he would have made in the NFL to change his mind about declaring for the NFL Draft. I suspect that Ward received a mid- to late-round NFL Draft grade, and Miami affords him the opportunity to raise his draft stock to at least a Day 2 projection—especially against a weaker QB class this year (Shedeur Sanders, Carson Beck, Quinn Ewers, Drew Allar, Jalen Milroe, etc) compared to last (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix, JJ McCarthy, Bo Nix, etc).
Miami has had a weak schedule so far, as they’ve yet to face a team that currently has a winning record (removing FCS matchups: Florida 1-2, Ball State 0-3, South Florida 1-3). Perhaps as a result, Cam Ward is doing things that shouldn’t really be possible, such as sitting in the pocket for 10+ seconds looking for a receiver (if I were an NFL scout, I’d probably want to see Ward demonstrate his ability to process the field and make much quicker reads).
Ward will absolutely buy an absurd amount of time in the backfield looking for a receiver, which means he and his receivers have a ton of experience on the scramble drill:
As you can see from the clip above, Ward is not at all afraid of taking hit as he throws, even though you could have probably deemed it unnecessary. I’m starting to doubt that Ward even possesses an internal clock, as he innately trusts his ability to get rid of the ball when necessary. Ward’s protection plus his ability on his feet have made Ward very tough to bring down this season, and the following is absolutely a routine play for Ward:
Because Miami has often afforded Ward such a clean pocket, he’s been able to make plenty of nice throws, demonstrating both the ability to rocket a throw into tight coverage, or loft display fantastic touch on his throws:
A big thing you’ll certainly hear from the announcers is just how calm Ward is as he stays in the pocket. He will show absolutely no reaction as he casually dodges a free rusher, scrambles for 20+ yards, or throws a game-winning touchdown. He’s completely unbothered. Cam Ward’s house is on fire: he doesn’t care. Worldly possessions are merely ephemeral belongings holding only the meaning to which we give them. Mere accouterments which belie a life of stoicism. We are infinite nothings in the breath of empty space.
Ward cares not for your blitzes. His heart rate is so low that one questions whether he is even alive. Are any of us really living?
As I mentioned in last year’s article, although Ward does not rely on his legs the way a typical dual-threat quarterback would, he absolutely must be accounted for in the run game. Here a couple of mesh routes open space in front of him, and Ward shows no hesitation to take off to run it into the endzone:
Ward quickly identifies when he has room to run:
It really can’t be understated just how frustratingly slippery Ward can be:
But the above clip brings me to another point about Ward: he absolutely has a tendency to try and do too much. Ward is always looking to make a big play, with an unquestionable faith in his arm. Last year, this style of play cost Ward, as he was 2nd in FBS in fumbles and 1st in the FBS in fumbles lost:
Sometimes you just need to take a sack or throw it away.
I briefly touched on this already, but Ward has a fantastic arm. I really like the touch he’s shown on some of his passes this year:
Ward does a great job of placing the ball where only his receiver can reach it (particularly when given time to throw):
Here Ward uses his arm strength to fire a laser through traffic:
Although Ward isn’t known for making snap reads, in the following play, he correctly identifies the numbers mismatch at the top of the field to take advantage of the busted coverage:
Ward can throw off-platform, and demonstrates the ability to throw at a variety of arm angles to get around pressure:
And again:
Because of Ward’s supreme confidence in his arm, he has sometimes shown inconsistent lower body mechanics, which can result in him missing easy throws:
And again with the overconfidence, here he throws across his body and into traffic instead of just throwing it away:
If Ward is to succeed at the next level, he needs to improve his ability to make good reads. Ward often either waits for a receiver to be visibly open (which will rarely ever happen in the NFL), or he decides he can use his arm to force the throw into a window he shouldn’t:
In previous years under Wilcox, the Cal defense had a superb secondary and subpar defensive line. This often meant that NFL-caliber defensive backs (The Takers: Ashtyn Davis, Jaylinn Hawkins, Cam Bynum, Elijah Hicks, Daniel Scott, Patrick McMorris, etc) had to cover receivers for an inordinate amount of time while the defensive line struggled to force the quarterback to throw the ball. Although not the most sound strategy, it worked with NFL-caliber players. Cal’s defensive line has markedly improved since then, but Cam Ward is preposterously elusive, and even if the Cal defensive line can beat the Miami offensive line, I am not sure how often they will be able to get to Ward. I’m sure the Cal defense will bring confusing looks and exotic blitzes to pressure Ward, bit it remains to be seen if he can handle pressure against Cal as well as he did through the soft part of their schedule.
Running back
The Miami backfield features another Pac-12 player I’ve extensively covered before: former Oregon State running back Damien Martinez. In contrast to his years at Oregon State, however, Miami hasn’t heavily featured the run game. Like another former Beaver, he has been underperforming this year, likely due to the lack of an elite offensive line he had at Oregon State (and both he and Uiagalelei owe a sizeable chunk of their NIL earnings this year to Oregon State’s former offensive line coach, Jim Michalczik). One thing that has changed since I last covered Martinez is that he went from a Jaydn Ott-lite to more of a big, bruising power back; he’s currently listed at 6’0” 232 lbs (he was 216 lbs when he won Pac-12 Freshman of the Year over Ott). Martinez had his best game against lesser (FCS) competition, but outside of that game, he’s only averaging 3.7 yards/carry, a big drop from his 6.1 yards/carry career average.
Martinez has consistently shown the ability throughout his career to gain extra yards after contact:
And generally shows good vision, with nice cutback ability:
His running style this year is more focused on grinding a defense down with hits, over and over again. The highlight of his season so far:
I feel like Martinez still has many of the same limitations as he did in previous years: he lacks elite speed, he hasn’t shown enough receiving ability, and he needs to improve in pass protection.
RB Damien Martinez run to the outside and trucks a defender for 17 yards
Filling a similar role to Martinez for Miami is RB Mark Fletcher Jr. He’s also a power-back zone-runner. Here he shows nice balance by somehow keeping his feet as he falls forward over the pile:
Fletcher will opt to run through contact, not around it:
And also like Martinez, he’s used on some short safety valve type of throws out of the backfield:
The most impressive running back in the backfield so far this year has been the freshman Jordan Lyle. So far this season, Lyle looks to be the most explosive athlete in the backfield for the Hurricanes. He has quickness, acceleration, and unlike some of the other backs, he does have the breakaway speed to be a homerun threat:
And Lyle has shown excellent one-cut ability, slipping defenders as he can start and stop on a dime:
Deeper down the depth chart is another speedy back, Ajay Allen, who had a big game against Ball State. Here he makes a nice cut to get outside and break off a big touchdown run:
Allen does a good job of keeping the play alive after it initially breaks down:
Allen has also shown some elusiveness, particularly favoring the spin move as his preferred way to shed tackles:
Last but certainly not least is Chris Johnson Jr., who is officially listed on the roster as a running back, but often lines up all over the field (the slot, out wide, as a halfback, etc). Chris Johnson Jr. is the son of former Titans RB Chris Johnson (i.e. CJ2K), who broke the combine 40-yard dash record with a time of 4.24 seconds.
Needless to say, Chris Johnson Jr. is fast, and he was also the Florida state champion in the 100m and 200m dash. His versatility as both a runner and a receiver make him a dangerous offensive weapon for the Hurricanes. Miami will often try to get him the ball in space, to let him use his speed to make plays:
As he’s a bit leaner than the other running backs, he’s not really the type to run between the tackles, so look for Florida to get him the ball on screens and out wide:
Although Miami has a stable of talented running backs, they haven’t really used them all that much so far this season.
Receivers
Miami has a deep and talented receiver room. The starting three receivers: Xavier Restrepo, Jacolby George, and Samuel Brown, were all named to the preseason watch list for the Biletnikoff Trophy, given annually to college football’s top receiver.
There’s one name you’re going to hear a lot on Saturday, and it’s QB Cam Ward’s favorite target, slot receiver Xavier Restrepo. I have been watching absurd amounts of football since long before I started doing this, so know that I don’t say the following lightly: Xavier Restrepo is the best slot receiver I’ve seen in college football. If you were making an All-Star College Football Team, you’d probably have a bunch of Alabama/Georgia/Ohio St/etc.-type players, but this guy should absolutely be starting on that team in the slot. He’ll be dinged by NFL Draft scouts because some of his game might not translate well to the next level (he’s undersized, for instance), but I don’t want to discuss NFL traits here like I usually do, because it would belittle how effective Restrepo is at the college level. In short, Restrepo is very hard to cover.
Restrepo is an excellent route runner, explosive acceleration in short distances, great body control, and fantastic hands. He will quickly create space and contort his body to whatever angle is needed to make the catch (including flat on his back, as we’ll see later):
Restrepo has done an excellent job of bailing Ward out on bad throws, and is probably a key factor in why Ward is 2nd in the FBS in passing yards. Here’s a ball that Restrepo has no chance on, because Ward fired a laser behind him on a crossing route:
Restrepo is also dangerous in open space, and does well to create his own yards after the catch:
Here Restrepo gets blatantly interfered with, and still manages to make the back shoulder catch, showing just how difficult he is to cover:
You can see the obvious sideline awareness and body control as he makes sure to get his foot inbounds. Here’s an example of Restrepo running a great route to get open, and then creating yards after the catch. Watch the safety that tries to cover Restrepo: the multiple sudden stops and starts leave the safety limping, and he goes down with an injury:
I mentioned earlier that Restrepo has great body control and can make a catch from any angle. Well, if you saw Miami’s late comeback drive last week, you’d have seen this 4th down conversion:
Restrepo is just a hoover vacuum for all passes thrown remotely in his direction. It’s ridiculous.
Another one of Ward’s most reliable targets (also with NFL potential) is the tight end, Elijah Arroyo. Arroyo is also a natural receiver, with the athleticism to catch jump balls and make contested catches. His blend of size, speed, and athleticism make him another receiver that is difficult to cover:
Although I didn’t an elaborate route tree for Arroyo, he struck me as more of a natural pass-catcher than a true blocking tight end:
Another one of Ward’s favorite targets is WR Isaiah Horton. Although he is still sitting behind Houston transfer WR Samuel Brown on the depth chart, Horton trails only Restrepo in receiving yards so far this year, and is one of Ward’s top targets. Horton has primarily been used on routes that threaten the defense deep down the field (e.g. go/post/corner routes), and perhaps that’s why Ward is so often looking his way.
Horton has also shown reliable hands as well as contested catch ability:
Houston transfer Samuel Brown, although very productive at Houston, has been off to a slower start for Miami (he has a couple drops and perhaps fewer targets as a result). Brown has speed, and Miami has primarily used him on shorter routes for his yards after carry ability:
And here Brown punishes the poor coverage by the defense, using his speed to get to the endzone:
Although Brown had some drops, he’s also had some other plays that demonstrated some nice hands:
Jacolby George is another receiver with good speed and YAC ability:
Similar to Samuel Brown, Jacolby George has also had a couple of concentration drops this season.
The next player you may remember from Oregon in… 2016. TE Cam McCormick is in his 9th season of college football (but to be fair, a lot of people go to college for 7+ years). He currently has 3 receptions on 3 targets for 2 TDs:
Lastly, a player I felt was worth mentioning is the true freshman Elija Lofton. Lofton is the second most targeted tight end behind Elijah Arroyo, but Lofton has played a much larger percentage of traditional tight end blocking snaps. Still, however, he’s shown that he’sa good route runner with reliable hands:
This is an extremely deep group, and Ward likes to spread the ball around. The Cal secondary will certainly have their hands full with the Miami receivers.
Conclusion
Cal probably has the best defense Miami will face all year, but the best that the Cal can reasonably hope for is to stem the bleeding from the Miami offense. I fully expect the Cal defense to do what they do best and come up with multiple turnovers, but Miami will still put up points. The Cal defense can play absolutely lights out, but they won’t be able to win this one without the offense taking a big step up from earlier performances. Wilcox and Co. have shown in the past the ability to confuse Cam Ward on defense, and they will need to again coerce Ward into making mistakes, likely by not allowing him to sit in the pocket for upwards of 10 seconds finding open receivers. The Cal defense hasn’t given up more than 14 points this season, but Miami will likely push this number somewhere in the high 20s to low 30s. Thus, I think the game will come down to how well the Cal offensive line can scheme around Miami’s talented defensive line. If Cal still has half the starting offensive line out to injury even after the bye week, I probably would not feel terribly optimistic about the game. The Cal offensive line will need to step up in a big way to give Mendoza time to throw, because he’s unfortunately going to take a number of big hits this game (especially given Miami’s penchant for roughing the passer penalties). If Cal can get past the Miami defensive line, things are probably looking up for the Bears, but if the Miami defensive line is in the backfield terrorizing Mendoza and the running backs, it’s going to be a long night.
Hopefully the sellout at Memorial can make an impact. This will probably be the most hyped game since the 2019 ASU game (in which Cal lost after also losing QB Chase Garbers to injury). Cam Ward would like to remind you that you need to be loud when they are huddling, not after they’ve broken the huddle. Here’s to a memorable College GameDay experience.
As always,
GO BEARS.
You can find my full clips here.
Ward looks really good, but with his overconfidence, Cal might have a lot of chances for takeaways, something we are very good at.
On the other hand, I can't see Cal defense stopping RB Martinez.
Given the choice of allowing more time for Mendoza to pass versus more holes for Ott to work with, I'd choose the latter. If Wilcox can establish the ball-control offense to compliment our resurgent defense, then we have a decent chance of pulling the upset.