NC State Football Offensive Preview
NC State cast the decisive vote in adding Cal to the ACC. Can Cal repay the favor by giving them a devastating defeat?
There are 4 teams remaining in the ACC that Cal has never played before in their 138 year football history, and that number will change this Saturday. It’s weird to think about how Cal will play its 77th matchup with next week’s out of conference opponent while having its inaugural matchup with this week’s conference opponent. I had to double-check how I should refer to NC State so that I didn’t accidentally “Cal State Berkeley” them. When I was writing articles about USC, I didn’t have to do extensive research to figure out the best way to provoke outrage in their fans (at least the ones that could read, anyway). NC State isn’t led by a self-righteous religious hypocrite who can’t stop calling escorts on his work phone. I have nothing negative to say about the NC State Wolfpack. They seem pretty cool, in all honesty. I mean, look at their mascot:
After all, NC State was the deciding vote in allowing Cal and Stanford to join the ACC, rescuing Cal from football purgatory. They recognized that the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill is full of treacherous snakes that would likely stab them in the back for a better conference invite the moment one became available, akin to the way USC shut down Pac-12 expansion before initiating the conference’s destruction. And so, NC State did what was best for NC State, which was to help extort the conference newcomers for additional revenue (but hey, that’s cool). We’re not conference rivals, we’re conference friends now.
NC State started the season with high preseason expectations—an AP Top 25 ranking and ACC Championship game appearance aspirations—and their season hasn’t turned out quite how they expected. The belief that this year was going to be the year that the team finally broke through, only for your long-tenured head coach to fall short again. As a Cal fan, it’s all very relatable:
Both teams are disappointingly 0-3 in ACC conference play. NC State also lost their both of their past two games by 1 possession. Both teams need a win to stop a dire skid and right the ship. It’s a real shame that NC State has to lose this one.
Quarterback
NC State started the season ranked in the AP Top 25, with a lot of hype surrounding their new transfer quarterback, Coastal Carolina’s Grayson McCall. McCall threw for over 10,000 yards at Coastal Carolina, and set the FBS single-season passing efficiency record in 2021 with a 207.6 passing efficiency rating (since eclipsed by LSU’s Jayden Daniels’s 208 rating in 2023). Unfortunately, McCall was carted off the field after suffering a serious head injury in the game against Wake Forest, adding to a long history of concussions, including a season-ending concussion last year at Coastal Carolina. I hope he can make a full recovery and I wish him the best in his recovery process.
Consequently, the true freshman quarterback CJ Bailey has been thrust into the starting role, and he’s played pretty well in lieu of McCall. Bailey is an athletic, 6’6” dual-threat quarterback with a willingness to challenge tight coverage. He’s a developmental quarterback with a lot of upside, and he’s getting that development a bit earlier than expected.
Bailey has been very efficient at sustaining drives, finding the most success on intermediate throws (i.e. ~10-20 yard depth of target). Bailey is mobile in the pocket, and demonstrates nice touch on throws over defenders:
QB CJ Bailey great touch on the throw on the run to WR Keenan JacksoBailey has solid arm strength, although he does have a tendency to underthrow the deep ball (which can draw defensive pass interference calls, something to be aware of given Pitt’s success sustaining a scoring drive with similar throws). He shows a lot of confidence in his arm, and can hit throws across the field:
Bailey has had a lot of success picking apart zone defenses so far this season (likely his willingness to challenge tight windows), but here’s another example of Bailey layering the throw over a defender to his receiver, with requisite zip on the throw:
And again, Bailey puts just enough air under the ball to clear the defender:
The next throw might be more suitable for TE Justin Joly’s highlight section, but this was another tight window throw in which Bailey had a lot of faith in his contested catch specialist to come down with the ball:
I had to include the alternate angle so you could see how quickly this window was closing:
Bailey is willing to stand in the pocket to complete the pass:
Bailey has some Cam Ward-esque ability to extend plays with his feet, buying time in the pocket as he looks to complete throws downfield:
Bailey can be used on designed QB runs:
Or he can use his speed to scramble for big gains when a play breaks down:
If not his speed, Bailey can also run through contact to pick up extra yardage:
Defenses must account for Bailey’s running ability, which can lead to coverage breakdowns:
However, Bailey is also a young quarterback that has had his fair share of mistakes this season. Bailey throws with a low release point, which means defenders can affect his throws when they get a hand in his face:
His attempts to alter his throwing angle in response to pressure hasn’t been too successful either:
Bailey has also made some bad reads on split-decision plays, such as this RPO where he fails to read the edge defender:
Bailey can also be indecisive in his full-field reads, such as the following play in which he has both of his top receivers open—TE Justin Joly and WR Kevin Concepcion—but fails to pull the trigger in time and results in a sack (similarly, he could have used his eyes to manipulate the defense for bigger windows for these throws):
Although Bailey has shown a penchant for layering throws over defenders, he’s also thrown a number of interceptions to linebackers in which (I believe) he doesn’t see the linebacker underneath. Here, the linebacker sits on this throw:
And here, Bailey doesn’t see that the linebackers has dropped out of his pressure look and into coverage:
We know that the Cal defense has all sorts of ways to confuse opposing quarterbacks in coverage, and I imagine Cal will disguise coverages and give Bailey different looks to muddle Bailey’s post-snap reads. I would not be surprised to see Buchanan or Uluave with an interception this game.
Running back
Although NC State is pretty even in their run/pass split, they’ve generally found more success passing the ball. NC State has a talented and experienced offensive line (4 of the 5 starters are grad students), although I suppose they are near-elite pass protectors, while merely moderately good run blockers (particularly when it comes to getting their running backs to the second level of the defense).
The starting running back is a grad transfer from Duke, Jordan Waters (of North Carolina, not the Crownlands). Waters is a big, physical back with a downhill running-style. He runs with a low center of gravity, and fights his way forward through contact:
Waters has a nasty stiff-arm:
Waters has enough speed to get to the edge:
And the following was about the only real big run play for NC State so far this season (excluding another big run against Clemson’s 2nd/3rd string in garbage time, which, like the below play, was characterized by poor angles taken by the defense):
NC State will often run running backs out into the flat as both a check-down receiver and to spread the field horizontally. Here Waters gets the ball in space and almost breaks off a big play:
Behind Waters is the sophomore Kendrick Raphael, a smaller but still physical downhill runner who has shown nice vision to find his lanes. Here he runs right through a Clemson defender:
And here he levels a linebacker like a bowling pin:
Raphael, a hurdler in high school, may also opt to leap over a tackler when he’s not running through them:
And here Raphael shows off some of that nice vision:
Here Raphael has a nice burst of speed and makes a nice cut to beat the safety to get into the endzone:
When NC State is looking for a change of pace, they often look to the redshirt freshman Oklahoma transfer, Hollywood (Daylan) Smothers. Listed at 5’11” 195 lbs., he’s leaner and more explosive than the other backs. Smothers likes to bounce runs to the outside, where he can use his speed:
And based solely on a couple glimpses of receptions, I want to extrapolate and say he’s probably their best pass-catcher out of the backfield. This play goes for a loss, but Smothers casually one-hands the catch before immediately dodging a tackle”
Smothers is dangerous in the open field, such as the following play where he broke multiple tackles to get free for a huge run:
Although the running game hasn’t been hugely successful so far this season, there is a lot of potential for this RB room.
Receiver
NC State has two very good receivers, which makes it difficult to decide who I should talk about first: TE Justin Joly or WR Kevin Concepcion. Concepcion was the ACC Rookie of the Year a Freshman All-American last year. However, after a huge first game this season, he’s been largely held in check these past few weeks—last year, he had 3 games in which he eclipsed 100+ receiving yards and 7 games in which he had 100+ combined rushing and receiving yards, but he hasn’t eclipsed 50 all-purpose yards since week 2 of this season. This may be due to teams now game-planning specifically around Concepcion.
Justin Joly, on the other hand, has been as solid as ever. Listed on the NC State roster as 6’3” 251 lbs., Joly is a wide receiver in a tight end’s body, and moves with the fluidity of a much smaller receiver. Joly, a transfer from UConn, led all tight ends in the FBS in contested catches (above #2 Auburn’s Rivaldo Fairweather) and missed tackles forced (above #2 Georgia’s Brock Bowers), per PFF.
Joly can make the big-bodied contested catches like a tight end, but then moves like a wide receiver after the catch, and he’s tough to bring down:
Joly runs good routes, shows good awareness of where he is on the field, and catches with his hands away from his body:
Even on less than ideal throws, Joly is a reliable target:
And back to moving like a receiver after the catch, you’d be hard pressed to find a 250 lbs. receiver who can juke like this:
Because of Joly’s size and power, he is tough to tackle, and will often pick up additional yards after the catch as a result:
Here’s another good example of that:
WR Kevin “KC” Concepcion is primarily a slot receiver, although he’s lined up out wide more often this season. Concepcion is a solid route runner, with the ability to create separation both in the slot and outside (although he may be a bit small to be an elite outside receiver at 5’11”):
Concepcion is most dangerous on throws in the middle of the field:
In addition to being a great route runner, Concepcion is a reliable target with soft hands:
Concepcion is dangerous in the open field, and NC State will look for ways to scheme him open for those yards after the catch:
Concepcion is elusive in the open field:
Concepcion can also be used in a variety of gadget plays. He’ll be used in jet motion sweeps, he can throw the ball, and he sometimes will line up as a running back in the backfield:
At the X-receiver position is Dacari Collins, a former Clemson transfer, whose 6’4” frame make him ideal for contested catch situations, although he has also shown some elusiveness in the open field:
Noah Rogers, a redshirt freshman transfer from Ohio State, is a high 4-star prospect coming out of high school and has been making big improvements in recent games. He’s a big play receiver that will run go-routes and is also a redzone threat. He’s at his best when he can catch and run:
Wesley Grimes, the Wake Forest transfer, is another reliable receiver, with speed on the outside:
The backup tight end only has two receptions, but this is one of them, so I had to include it:
NC State has a lot of other receivers that will see targets, particularly with freshman QB CJ Bailey now starting. Bailey has good chemistry with other freshmen receivers like Terrell Anderson (high 4-star) and Keenan Jackson, although I haven’t seen enough of them in non-garbage time to form any opinion. NC State also has another 4-star freshman receiver who has received a couple of snaps in Jonathan Paylor, but he’s yet to see any targets. Regardless, it should be clear that NC State does have a talented receiving corps.
Conclusion
Do I still think Cal is the better team? Yes. Do I still think Cal is going to win? After last week, I’ve lost quite a bit of faith in Cal playing up to that preseason potential. Cal is still missing multiple starting offensive linemen to injury, and so I am convinced NC State DE Davin Vann and the defensive line will have a monster game tearing through one side of the Cal offensive line. NC State’s secondary can be exploited, but that’s predicated on the assumption that Fernando Mendoza will have enough time to allow routes to develop and challenge the NC State defense vertically. NC State’s tackling has been atrocious this season, but a missed tackle in the backfield isn’t as costly as a missed tackle in the open field. Cal’s secondary will most certainly confuse and harass QB CJ Bailey, but how many points is Cal going to get off turnovers even if they do have 1 or 2 interceptions? I don’t remember the exact numbers, but NC State has a fantastic record when winning the turnover battle (something like 22-1 since 2000), and an absolutely awful record when they don’t—so NC State is just as desperately in need of extra offensive possessions as this Cal team.
Cal has an elite defense, but with a patchwork offensive line, a banged-up Jaydn Ott, and still missing its top 2 WRs (particularly receivers that could challenge NC State’s defense vertically), I am imagining this game is a low-scoring slugfest, where it’s hard to believe either team really wants to win this one. NC State has a solid kicker that can kick from 50+, so it would behoove Cal to make sure they do not need to defend a 1-2 point lead with 2 minutes left on the clock. Cal should win this one, but that’s also what I said last week, so take that as you may.
Go Bears.
You can find my full clips here.
Crikey.
Looking at these guys, I gotta' wonder how they have the record they do.
Our Oline is a huge problem. Would it be obscene to poach from our D Line? Maybe even have some line go both ways?
Fernando is tough, but no one is unbreakable. I wish, like the NFL, we could bring in replacements mid season.
I can definitely see our D giving up a few big plays to this lineup. The question is whether those become backbreakers because of our inability to protect Nando, run the ball at all, or keep from pulling a Plaxico with procedural penalties.