Really appreciate the write-up, Chris! The negabear in me (grows as I get older) feels like I heard that story before re: Nevada playing against lower competition. Kap still gives me nightmares and a sh*tty memory from a decade+ ago.
I definitely remember the game (and general feeling of hopelessness with the Cal defense, where every decision turned out to be the wrong one with Kap's mastery of the pistol), but I chalk it up to the end of the Tedford era. Tedford was great for many years, but we know he had health issues and couldn't give it his all anymore at that point. In contrast, I think we're entering prime Wilcox years now (or at least that's what I tell myself).
I just want everyone to know that the only reason I write these is because I wanted to share my knowledge and interact with other Cal fans, so I appreciate everyone who reads and comments on my articles every week.
I mean, I originally did it because I wanted to know what Cal's chances were in every game. I'd watch every Cal game, but still I would have no idea how worried to be week-to-week. The only stuff you could find on opposing teams would be written by their local media or maybe some stuff from their fans, but they also don't have any perspective on exactly how good or bad their team is. You can read Nevada news and read about how great Carson Strong is and how he's for sure going to be the best NFL QB ever, but I doubt you'll ever see some nuanced perspective of "well, Strong is good, but he's going against a Cal secondary that has faced a number of current NFL QBs like Justin Herbert and held him to 200 yards" or something.
Even looking at stat lines doesn't give you the full perspective. "Nevada's defense ranks 42nd in the FBS, holding their opponents to 377 yards/game." Well, sure... but they didn't have any out of conference games, so all of Nevada's offensive and defensive stats are relative to other MWC teams. There's a big difference between holding a team to 377 yards in the MWC and holding a team to 377 yards in the Big 12, for example. Just a couple notches above Nevada on the defensive rankings for last year is TCU, and the difference between the two defenses is huge. Strong throws it deep to Doubs, MWC CB jumps about 2 seconds early, falls over, and Doubs makes an easy catch. Okay, cool, Nevada's defense is competing against teams like these. Someone tries the same thing against TCU, the TCU defender is on him like a blanket, and frequently rips the ball out in the event the receiver does make a catch. The two teams have similar stats on paper, but they're nowhere close.
So I guess this is my way of presenting both sides. I am clearly biased when evaluating Cal, but I think I am pretty neutral when it comes to evaluating other teams. I don't care if Strong is good or bad, a future 1st round pick or an UDFA. I just want to know how good he is so I can predict how well Cal will do against him.
1. Pressure - let's see how the hype the DL is getting shows up on the field. Keep Strong off balance and running.
2. Drape coverage on Doubs and Turner - obviously I'm afraid of big rangy tight-ends. From Ed Dickson, to Marcedes Lewis to all of Stanford's interchangeable big, fast, white dudes with the same haircut.
Re: draping coverage on Doubs and Turner, one of the effective strategies against Doubs was to respect his speed and give him a big cushion. Kind of a "bend, don't break." When corners tried to jam him or play him too close, he'd get past them and just outrun them down the field to get open deep. When teams gave him a cushion, they're saying, "go ahead and take the 5 yard catch, I'm not letting you get behind me." And that worked-- teams forced Nevada to earn their yards consistently over the course of the game and not just pick them up on a couple of big plays, and Nevada would be unable to sustain drives. Nevada has a ton of short yardage plays (screens, etc) and long yardage plays (4 verts, etc), but I really didn't see that much in the way of intermediate passing, and that's where Turner would be a big factor. While I wouldn't be surprised if the Cal defense made Doubs disappear, I doubt the same would happen to Turner. Turner is going to get his catches even if he's blanketed by coverage and Strong has time to throw. I think it'd be easier to confuse Strong on his reads, make him hesitate and throw late, which is how he threw most of his interceptions.
This is too hard to do now-- how about after week 1 or maybe the end of OOC play? There are too many wildcards at QB in the Pac-12 currently-- Arizona has Gunner Cruz (transferred from Washington State), Colorado has Brendon Lewis (true freshman), Utah has both Charlie Brewer (Baylor transfer) and Cameron Rising (Texas transfer), Oregon St has Sam Noyer (transferred from Colorado), Washington State has Jarrett Guarantano (Tennessee transfer), and Washington has Sam Huard (true freshman). The only teams with relative stability at QB are Cal (Chase Garbers), USC (Kedon Slovis), UCLA (Dorian Thompson-Robinson), and ASU (Jayden Daniels). Oregon is playing Anthony Brown, who only player 1.5 games last year, and Stanford has Jack West in a similar situation. In other words, 4 returning QBs, 2 backups taking over the starting job, and 4 entirely new QBs.
Even though I've seen some of the transfers (e.g. Charlie Brewer in 2018 when Cal played TCU in the Cheez-It Bowl, plus the 2020 TCU-Baylor game), it's way too early to say how they'll fit with their new team. For instance, Charlie Brewer was a great QB in 2018, but either due to injuries or something, he didn't do so well in 2020, so I am not really sure where he currently is. I liked Noyer at Colorado, but it's a totally different system at OSU. I would have a lot of trouble ranking them now.
Re: the NFL Draft, not quite sure what you mean; there are 7 rounds in the NFL Draft. If I am being honest, I love Garbers, but I don't think he's on many NFL radars. He's obviously athletic, but he'd need a big season to start turning heads. He's shown flashes of great QB play, occasionally dropping dimes, but he's also gone long stretches without such play (not to mention injury concerns). He'd need to play consistently throughout the season to show off his accuracy and decision-making. He didn't look super comfortable to me in the new offense last year, so there's definitely some questions around that too.
Ask me again at the start of Pac-12 play (Week 4-ish), I'll rank the QBs then. I'll be watching games like Colorado/ASU/Utah vs. FCS, and I never learn very much in those games.
Really appreciate the write-up, Chris! The negabear in me (grows as I get older) feels like I heard that story before re: Nevada playing against lower competition. Kap still gives me nightmares and a sh*tty memory from a decade+ ago.
I definitely remember the game (and general feeling of hopelessness with the Cal defense, where every decision turned out to be the wrong one with Kap's mastery of the pistol), but I chalk it up to the end of the Tedford era. Tedford was great for many years, but we know he had health issues and couldn't give it his all anymore at that point. In contrast, I think we're entering prime Wilcox years now (or at least that's what I tell myself).
Great to see you for another season Christopher!!
DO YOU SMELL WHAT CHRIS IS COOKING. IT SMELLS LIKE FOOTBALL SEASON
"I love the smell of football in the morning, smells like....victory!"
Really enjoyed the article. Now I feel like I know what to look for at the game on Saturday from Nevada (and, by extension, our defense). Thanks!
I just want everyone to know that the only reason I write these is because I wanted to share my knowledge and interact with other Cal fans, so I appreciate everyone who reads and comments on my articles every week.
Wait. I thought it was to talk about how there’s way too many hot takes about Nevada?
I mean, I originally did it because I wanted to know what Cal's chances were in every game. I'd watch every Cal game, but still I would have no idea how worried to be week-to-week. The only stuff you could find on opposing teams would be written by their local media or maybe some stuff from their fans, but they also don't have any perspective on exactly how good or bad their team is. You can read Nevada news and read about how great Carson Strong is and how he's for sure going to be the best NFL QB ever, but I doubt you'll ever see some nuanced perspective of "well, Strong is good, but he's going against a Cal secondary that has faced a number of current NFL QBs like Justin Herbert and held him to 200 yards" or something.
Even looking at stat lines doesn't give you the full perspective. "Nevada's defense ranks 42nd in the FBS, holding their opponents to 377 yards/game." Well, sure... but they didn't have any out of conference games, so all of Nevada's offensive and defensive stats are relative to other MWC teams. There's a big difference between holding a team to 377 yards in the MWC and holding a team to 377 yards in the Big 12, for example. Just a couple notches above Nevada on the defensive rankings for last year is TCU, and the difference between the two defenses is huge. Strong throws it deep to Doubs, MWC CB jumps about 2 seconds early, falls over, and Doubs makes an easy catch. Okay, cool, Nevada's defense is competing against teams like these. Someone tries the same thing against TCU, the TCU defender is on him like a blanket, and frequently rips the ball out in the event the receiver does make a catch. The two teams have similar stats on paper, but they're nowhere close.
So I guess this is my way of presenting both sides. I am clearly biased when evaluating Cal, but I think I am pretty neutral when it comes to evaluating other teams. I don't care if Strong is good or bad, a future 1st round pick or an UDFA. I just want to know how good he is so I can predict how well Cal will do against him.
Honestly expected a trolling response as it was a troll question but now I’m glad I asked since everyone can read your eval perspective. Hahaha
Great write up, Christopher! Thanks!
Great write-up and analysis. I was starting to worry about this game but now I feel a bit more sanguine about it.
Same – Cal's handled WSU just fine, so it sounds like Nevada should be manageable.
Same for me. It's easy to get wrapped up in the other team's hype; a thoughtful analysis like this post puts things in proper perspective.
Brilliant…thanks
1. Pressure - let's see how the hype the DL is getting shows up on the field. Keep Strong off balance and running.
2. Drape coverage on Doubs and Turner - obviously I'm afraid of big rangy tight-ends. From Ed Dickson, to Marcedes Lewis to all of Stanford's interchangeable big, fast, white dudes with the same haircut.
3. #GoTeam - lets get some turnovers.
Re: draping coverage on Doubs and Turner, one of the effective strategies against Doubs was to respect his speed and give him a big cushion. Kind of a "bend, don't break." When corners tried to jam him or play him too close, he'd get past them and just outrun them down the field to get open deep. When teams gave him a cushion, they're saying, "go ahead and take the 5 yard catch, I'm not letting you get behind me." And that worked-- teams forced Nevada to earn their yards consistently over the course of the game and not just pick them up on a couple of big plays, and Nevada would be unable to sustain drives. Nevada has a ton of short yardage plays (screens, etc) and long yardage plays (4 verts, etc), but I really didn't see that much in the way of intermediate passing, and that's where Turner would be a big factor. While I wouldn't be surprised if the Cal defense made Doubs disappear, I doubt the same would happen to Turner. Turner is going to get his catches even if he's blanketed by coverage and Strong has time to throw. I think it'd be easier to confuse Strong on his reads, make him hesitate and throw late, which is how he threw most of his interceptions.
For me, "drape coverage" is scarier than a big tight end. Because we are always flagged for it. Only furd can do drape coverage and get away with it.
This is too hard to do now-- how about after week 1 or maybe the end of OOC play? There are too many wildcards at QB in the Pac-12 currently-- Arizona has Gunner Cruz (transferred from Washington State), Colorado has Brendon Lewis (true freshman), Utah has both Charlie Brewer (Baylor transfer) and Cameron Rising (Texas transfer), Oregon St has Sam Noyer (transferred from Colorado), Washington State has Jarrett Guarantano (Tennessee transfer), and Washington has Sam Huard (true freshman). The only teams with relative stability at QB are Cal (Chase Garbers), USC (Kedon Slovis), UCLA (Dorian Thompson-Robinson), and ASU (Jayden Daniels). Oregon is playing Anthony Brown, who only player 1.5 games last year, and Stanford has Jack West in a similar situation. In other words, 4 returning QBs, 2 backups taking over the starting job, and 4 entirely new QBs.
Even though I've seen some of the transfers (e.g. Charlie Brewer in 2018 when Cal played TCU in the Cheez-It Bowl, plus the 2020 TCU-Baylor game), it's way too early to say how they'll fit with their new team. For instance, Charlie Brewer was a great QB in 2018, but either due to injuries or something, he didn't do so well in 2020, so I am not really sure where he currently is. I liked Noyer at Colorado, but it's a totally different system at OSU. I would have a lot of trouble ranking them now.
Re: the NFL Draft, not quite sure what you mean; there are 7 rounds in the NFL Draft. If I am being honest, I love Garbers, but I don't think he's on many NFL radars. He's obviously athletic, but he'd need a big season to start turning heads. He's shown flashes of great QB play, occasionally dropping dimes, but he's also gone long stretches without such play (not to mention injury concerns). He'd need to play consistently throughout the season to show off his accuracy and decision-making. He didn't look super comfortable to me in the new offense last year, so there's definitely some questions around that too.
Ask me again at the start of Pac-12 play (Week 4-ish), I'll rank the QBs then. I'll be watching games like Colorado/ASU/Utah vs. FCS, and I never learn very much in those games.