Oregon's defense stars the presumed #1 pick in next year's NFL Draft and the talent of a playoff-caliber team. So why aren't they playing like an elite defense?
Another excellent preview from Christopher. Just throwing in my two cents again with an Oregon POV.
The injuries have been a killer at LB as mentioned. You'll see former walk-on Nate Heaukulani (will be in the right spot but lacks athleticism), and Jeffrey Bassa (a freshman safety who's filling in at LB for the time being). The spots to exploit are definitely here as they are slow to diagnose plays when they're asked to play zone coverage.
DBs have been solid all things considered. Without Bennett, Jamal Hill will slide into that spot. He had a couple INTs in the Pac 12 Championship Game last season and is more of a thumper than a true coverage safety. Stanford exploited his coverage skills a lot on those quick slants as he was slow to diagnose those plays. Jordan Happle (former Boise State starting S) will also see some snaps. He lacks elite athleticism and makes Oregon fans groan when he's on the field. He's above average at best. I will add that any more injuries here and we're talking about playing true freshmen and converted receivers.
The DL has been another group killed by injuries. Bradyn Swinson is terrific on the edge and he'll be back to bolster this group and will see a lot of snaps with KT missing the first half. Speaking of KT, he should be all the way as healthy as he could possibly be now. All in all, this front 7 will be the healthiest they've been in terms of bodies available since the Fresno State game.
Will throw in some special teams info while I'm here.
Camden Lewis at K has been great. Freshman season he was really bad at times but seems to have turned the corner. KRs are Mykael Wright who is dynamic and Kris Hutson who has a lot of potential but has yet to pop. PR is Mycah Pittman who is a tough, fearless returner. If he gets a crease he'll go for a big gain. P is Tom Snee. Best thing I can say is that I don't think of him much so he's been getting the job done.
More great information about the Oregon team, thanks! I agree that long sustained drives are going to be necessary to have a chance to beat these guys. That means the OL has got to have improved their play since the WSU experience. I sure hope they have. Go Bears!
WSU had a unique defensive approach against Cal, using wide gaps and edge rushing smaller and faster d linemen and LB's which completely befuddled our line.
Nice write-up and analysis. With everything I've read above the depth and speed will be tough to overcome when we are on offense, yet Oregon statistically is in the middle of the pack defensively. Hopefully we'll be able to keep it close and we win in the last minute.
Oregon doesn’t babe Bama/Georgia levels of depth quite yet. They’ll need a few more years of recruiting like they are to get there. So, maybe Musgraves can take advantage of the youth Oregon is putting out there.
I feel like 5-star recruits are equivalent to early first round draft picks in the NFL. Sure, some of them turn out to be busts, but just percentage-wise they have the greatest chance of becoming NFL stars. Look at all of Cal's 5 star recruits and how many of them turned out to be NFL studs: Lorenzo Alexander (2001), Marshawn Lynch (2004), DeSean Jackson (2005), Keenan Allen (2010), and... Demetris Robertson (2016).
I don't want to use Georgia as an example because I think they have the most 5-stars of anyone but they have significantly fewer active NFL players than e.g. Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, etc, so I think there's some sort of hidden variable there.
So let's take Alabama as an example, since they have the most active NFL players of any college (73). In the past 3 years--and I am cherry-picking a bit here since Oregon didn't have any 5-stars 4 years ago, but I think it's fair because the 5-star future NFL players (e.g. Thibodeaux) are leaving after 3 years anyway--Oregon has four 5-stars on their defense, and Alabama has six. Ohio State has three. LSU has three. And on the other end of the spectrum, a current favorite to make the CFP on the strength of their defense now is Iowa, who has exactly zero 5-star players, and just three 4-stars on defense (pretty much the entire rest of Oregon's roster is 4-star recruits).
I don't really know what point I'm trying to make here, maybe just that it's hard for anyone to replace a 5-star player when they're injured, and that the gulf to the other typical playoff contenders isn't all that wide. But with the way teams like Iowa or Utah are able to turn in elite defenses without 5-star players, it's also clear that talent is just half the battle (also see one of my favorite schadenfreude games to watch: https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/400868969)
So like you said, hopefully Cal can take advantage of some of that inexperience on the Oregon defense.
I think you'll see things like e.g. 3-stars are the most common in the NFL, but it's because of the sheer number of them, while there are very few 5-star recruits. However, 5-star recruits hit the NFL at a much higher percentage than anyone else.
Also, that skill positions are way harder to judge. I feel this way when I watch high school tape, you can't tell if e.g. a running back is really fast or if the competition is just slow because the college prospects are head and shoulders above everyone else. Watch Jahvid Best's high school tape, he just uses pure speed to blast past everyone. So a scout will say, "he's fast, but he won't be that much faster than everyone in college... 4 stars" But then it turns out he was indeed way faster than everyone else in college too. So he gets drafted by the Lions in the 1st round. "Well, he's fast, but everyone in the NFL has NFL speed." Best's career was cut short due to concussions, but a few years later he was running in the lane next to Usain Bolt in the Olympics.
Conversely, you see someone like Michael Oher (the OL featured in the movie "The Blindside"), and he's like 6'7" 320 lbs. and can bench press like a truck in high school. He already looks like an NFL offensive lineman... "Hmm, I give him 5-stars." Way more obvious in that case.
Another excellent preview from Christopher. Just throwing in my two cents again with an Oregon POV.
The injuries have been a killer at LB as mentioned. You'll see former walk-on Nate Heaukulani (will be in the right spot but lacks athleticism), and Jeffrey Bassa (a freshman safety who's filling in at LB for the time being). The spots to exploit are definitely here as they are slow to diagnose plays when they're asked to play zone coverage.
DBs have been solid all things considered. Without Bennett, Jamal Hill will slide into that spot. He had a couple INTs in the Pac 12 Championship Game last season and is more of a thumper than a true coverage safety. Stanford exploited his coverage skills a lot on those quick slants as he was slow to diagnose those plays. Jordan Happle (former Boise State starting S) will also see some snaps. He lacks elite athleticism and makes Oregon fans groan when he's on the field. He's above average at best. I will add that any more injuries here and we're talking about playing true freshmen and converted receivers.
The DL has been another group killed by injuries. Bradyn Swinson is terrific on the edge and he'll be back to bolster this group and will see a lot of snaps with KT missing the first half. Speaking of KT, he should be all the way as healthy as he could possibly be now. All in all, this front 7 will be the healthiest they've been in terms of bodies available since the Fresno State game.
Will throw in some special teams info while I'm here.
Camden Lewis at K has been great. Freshman season he was really bad at times but seems to have turned the corner. KRs are Mykael Wright who is dynamic and Kris Hutson who has a lot of potential but has yet to pop. PR is Mycah Pittman who is a tough, fearless returner. If he gets a crease he'll go for a big gain. P is Tom Snee. Best thing I can say is that I don't think of him much so he's been getting the job done.
Thanks for the insight—learn how to spell "Stanfurd" correctly and you'll fit in here just fine!
Good point , it sure worked well against us.
More great information about the Oregon team, thanks! I agree that long sustained drives are going to be necessary to have a chance to beat these guys. That means the OL has got to have improved their play since the WSU experience. I sure hope they have. Go Bears!
WSU had a unique defensive approach against Cal, using wide gaps and edge rushing smaller and faster d linemen and LB's which completely befuddled our line.
Nice write-up and analysis. With everything I've read above the depth and speed will be tough to overcome when we are on offense, yet Oregon statistically is in the middle of the pack defensively. Hopefully we'll be able to keep it close and we win in the last minute.
Oregon doesn’t babe Bama/Georgia levels of depth quite yet. They’ll need a few more years of recruiting like they are to get there. So, maybe Musgraves can take advantage of the youth Oregon is putting out there.
OTOH dang Oregon has a lot of great players.
I feel like 5-star recruits are equivalent to early first round draft picks in the NFL. Sure, some of them turn out to be busts, but just percentage-wise they have the greatest chance of becoming NFL stars. Look at all of Cal's 5 star recruits and how many of them turned out to be NFL studs: Lorenzo Alexander (2001), Marshawn Lynch (2004), DeSean Jackson (2005), Keenan Allen (2010), and... Demetris Robertson (2016).
I don't want to use Georgia as an example because I think they have the most 5-stars of anyone but they have significantly fewer active NFL players than e.g. Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, etc, so I think there's some sort of hidden variable there.
So let's take Alabama as an example, since they have the most active NFL players of any college (73). In the past 3 years--and I am cherry-picking a bit here since Oregon didn't have any 5-stars 4 years ago, but I think it's fair because the 5-star future NFL players (e.g. Thibodeaux) are leaving after 3 years anyway--Oregon has four 5-stars on their defense, and Alabama has six. Ohio State has three. LSU has three. And on the other end of the spectrum, a current favorite to make the CFP on the strength of their defense now is Iowa, who has exactly zero 5-star players, and just three 4-stars on defense (pretty much the entire rest of Oregon's roster is 4-star recruits).
I don't really know what point I'm trying to make here, maybe just that it's hard for anyone to replace a 5-star player when they're injured, and that the gulf to the other typical playoff contenders isn't all that wide. But with the way teams like Iowa or Utah are able to turn in elite defenses without 5-star players, it's also clear that talent is just half the battle (also see one of my favorite schadenfreude games to watch: https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/400868969)
So like you said, hopefully Cal can take advantage of some of that inexperience on the Oregon defense.
You may be interested in these articles then:
How 5-stars fare in the NFL Draft: https://www.si.com/college/notredame/recruiting/five-star-recruits-and-the-nfl-draft
NFL Drafts by star rankings: https://247sports.com/Article/NFL-Draft-recruiting-rankings-go-hand-in-hand--117819292/
I think you'll see things like e.g. 3-stars are the most common in the NFL, but it's because of the sheer number of them, while there are very few 5-star recruits. However, 5-star recruits hit the NFL at a much higher percentage than anyone else.
Also, that skill positions are way harder to judge. I feel this way when I watch high school tape, you can't tell if e.g. a running back is really fast or if the competition is just slow because the college prospects are head and shoulders above everyone else. Watch Jahvid Best's high school tape, he just uses pure speed to blast past everyone. So a scout will say, "he's fast, but he won't be that much faster than everyone in college... 4 stars" But then it turns out he was indeed way faster than everyone else in college too. So he gets drafted by the Lions in the 1st round. "Well, he's fast, but everyone in the NFL has NFL speed." Best's career was cut short due to concussions, but a few years later he was running in the lane next to Usain Bolt in the Olympics.
Conversely, you see someone like Michael Oher (the OL featured in the movie "The Blindside"), and he's like 6'7" 320 lbs. and can bench press like a truck in high school. He already looks like an NFL offensive lineman... "Hmm, I give him 5-stars." Way more obvious in that case.