Oregon Football Offensive Preview
Cal faces off against the top offense in the Pac-12 (and #3 in the country). Luckily, Oregon is only (check notes) #18 in the country in defense, so Cal for sure has a great chance this game.
I’ve been saying this every week in the “Around the Conference” articles, but I think Oregon has the best chance to win the Pac-12. They’re a complete, well-rounded team, with the best offense and the second-best defense in the conference (#3 in the FBS in offense and #18 in defense). This is not a team with any obvious weaknesses. While I could delude myself into thinking Cal had a chance against certain flawed conference title contenders (e.g. the way Utah lacks an offense and USC lacks a defense), the only other “complete” team in the conference—Washington—ran up a 40-point lead on Cal by the 3rd quarter. Oregon and Washington played to the wire earlier this season in a matchup of top 10 teams, and although UW got the better of Oregon in Seattle, I still think Oregon looked like the better team which happened to make some less than optimal game decisions, with Oregon missing a short field goal to prevent the game from going into overtime. (Oregon likes to go for 2 early to make teams chase points, and coach Dan Lanning loves going for it on 4th down anywhere on the field. My best guess is this is probably some sort of game theory thing which is probably technically correct from an analytical standpoint of maximizing the expected value of points scored, but also the type of thing that gets second-guessed when you lose as a result).
Still, though, I think Oregon is even more well-rounded than Washington is. Washington has kind of a weak run game, and Washington has struggled in recent weeks as teams have learned to take away the explosive pass plays away from Washington. UW failed to score an offensive touchdown against ASU (winning on a defensive TD instead) and went down to the wire against Stanford, and ASU and Stanford are two of the worst teams in the conference.
And yet, Washington handled Cal with ease. Further, Oregon just dominated Utah, another team that overwhelmed Cal. And now Cal’s supposed to take on Oregon?
Even in my delusional preseason predictions, where I naively assume that everything goes right for Cal (despite many years of Cal fandom to have taught me otherwise), I would have told you that Cal didn’t have a chance against Oregon. Oregon’s offense is a bad matchup stylistically; the kind of offense Wilcox defenses have struggled against back when Wilcox defenses were elite. Cal’s offense is playing much better than I would have ever guessed preseason, but Oregon CB Khyree Jackson is an absolute lockdown corner and one of the best corners in the conference, and he’ll pose an extremely tough matchup for Jeremiah Hunter. Oregon may be vulnerable at safety, but I don’t think Cal has the horses on offense to challenge the Oregon safeties. Cal has a fantastic run game, but Oregon has a dominant defensive line that will likely win the point of attack against Cal’s offensive line, forcing Jaydn Ott or Isaiah Ifanse (if they’re not still banged up) to make absurd individual talent plays just to gain positive yards.
The only team to nearly upset Oregon this season was Texas Tech, who did so on the strength of their lines. I don’t follow Texas Tech and so I don’t know if this is typical or a fluke, but the Texas Tech defensive line shut down the Oregon run game, and the offensive line paved the way for a number of solid quarterback runs by… former Oregon QB Tyler Shough. Although Oregon struggled against mobile quarterbacks early in the season, coach Dan Lanning seemed to have it figured out by the time they faced Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Washington State’s Cam Ward (the answer, apparently: overwhelming pressure by the defensive line).
So to summarize, to match up well with Oregon, you’d want to have some serious NFL talent on your offensive and defensive lines, and a very mobile quarterback with the ability to punish the Oregon safeties. Does this sound like Cal to you? Cal is banged up on both the offensive and defensive lines. Fernando Mendoza is great and I am really enjoying the way he’s been developing, but he’s going to face a ton of pressure, and he’ll need some receiving help from receivers not named Jeremiah Hunter. Like I said, I didn’t like this matchup even back when I assumed everything would go right for Cal.
So let’s take a closer look at all the ways Oregon is going to hurt Cal and also my soul.
Quarterback
In my opinion, Bo Nix should be the favorite for the Heisman. He might not have the NFL ceiling of some of the other quarterbacks that are in the discussion, but if the Heisman were to go to the best player in college football, I think you’d have to strongly consider Bo Nix. (Of course, Heisman voters are always about a year late, so Washington’s Michael Penix Jr is getting Heisman buzz this year as a result of the big numbers he put up last year, but I digress).
Nix is currently projected somewhere around a late 1st/early 2nd round NFL Draft pick for his physical tools. He has all the size, strength, and speed attributes that you’d like to see in a signal-caller at the next level. He can effortlessly rifle passes down the field and hit receivers in stride:
I really like Nix’s ability to drop it in to places where only his receivers can get it, but this takes a certain level of chemistry with his receivers (and hence why most of these Nix highlights involve WR Troy Franklin and WR Tez Johnson):
Nix is not known to be a sharpshooter, someone with pinpoint accuracy, but he often does a good job of throwing to a spot for his receiver:
Nix is also known for his ability to throw off-platform and under pressure (at least the occasional pressure, maybe not against the overwhelming pressure he faced behind a porous Auburn offensive line early on in his career—not an issue he’s had to face at Oregon):
Although sometimes Nix’s internal clock is a tick early (likely Auburn PTSD), Nix does a good job of climbing the pocket and buying time for his receivers:
I think Nix does a really good job of keeping his eyes downfield when he’s moving around in the pocket, although his accuracy can be affected by oncoming pressure.
Nix is a viable dual-threat quarterback, but it feels like he’s running the ball less this year (have to protect your stars and their future). There may be less designed runs for Nix this year, but Nix still needs to be accounted for in the run game:
If Nix is not accounted for and he has room to run, he absolutely will take it:
This is just a great run play by Nix, showcasing his ability with the ball in his hands:
I’m also completely glossing over the fact that Bo Nix leads the FBS in completion percentage with an absurd 78.3% completion rate (and he’s #5 in the FBS in passing TDs, so it’s not just a meaningless stat). Nix doesn’t throw a lot of incompletions (and a good chunk of those are drops, but we’ll get to those later), but it’s a combination of his accuracy and the type of offense Oregon is looking to run. Oregon will throw a lot of short, safe throws, but they’re so efficient at gaining yards after the catch that they consistently drive down the field—in other words, death by a million cuts. They’re the complete opposite of a team like Washington (which looks to rack up yards on a limited number of explosive plays). Teams in recent weeks have been able to slow the Washington offense by taking away the big play and keeping everything in front of them, basically forcing Washington to do what Oregon does. Except no one has been able to really stop what Oregon does.
Running back
In previous years, Oregon’s dominant offensive line was the reason that Oregon’s running backs would win all-conference awards despite not having the NFL-talent that other running backs in the conference had. Well, that’s not the case anymore with Bucky Irving. I’ve been a fan of Irving’s ever since I watched him play for Minnesota in 2021. Unlike some previous Oregon running backs, Irving absolutely does have what it takes to play at the next level. Despite being a speedy back, he actually led the Pac-12 in missed tackles forced last year (with 67 missed tackles forced on 157 attempts, per PFF).
Although he might be considered an undersized back at the NFL level, he’s got the requisite breakaway speed:
Irving has a fantastic offensive line in front of him, so he will wait for his blocks to develop, pick his spot, break a few tackles, and if he can get to the next level then he’s gone:
You might guess that a running back that is so good at forcing missed tackles is either super elusive (think Jahvid Best) or super powerful (think Marshawn Lynch). Instead, Irving is some sort of blend of those attributes: he’s not so elusive that defenders can’t get a hand on him, but elusive enough that they can’t get a good grip, and powerful enough to run through those weak tackles. And he does it so frequently. He shows really good balance and a penchant to keep driving forward:
I don’t really have a good caption for the following play, but I’m a simple man: I see a stiff arm on a Stanford player, I save to my highlight reel:
And of course, Irving has really good vision to always find his cutback lanes:
Irving works really well in space, so Oregon will use Irving extensively in the passing game to spread the field and make defenders miss in the open field:
Oregon loves to throw to the flat, and an RB will often run a hot route. Here, Irving brings his ability to avoid being taken down to the passing game:
Just take a look at how many defenders there are when they finally get a stop on Irving:
If there is one thing to knock about his game, however, it’s probably his weakness in pass protection. He just doesn’t have the size to stop a linebacker like this:
Backup RB Noah Whittington suffered an unfortunate season-ending injury, so the true sophomore Jordan James—a one-time Georgia commit—has received the bulk of the remaining carries in his absence. James runs in much the same style as Irving, and is used in similar ways in the passing game. He shows quick acceleration and burst:
Like Irving, he’s slippery when defenders get hands on him:
James runs with a low center of gravity and good balance, allowing him to squeeze out extra yardage as he falls forward on runs:
And again, an effort play to just keep fighting through contact:
Oregon leads the conference in rushing, and it’s going to be hard to stop their talented running backs behind a stellar offensive line.
Receivers
Bo Nix’s top target in the passing game is Troy Franklin, who also led the team in catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns in 2022. I covered Franklin last year as well and don’t want to repeat myself too much, but Franklin is a rangy possession receiver with high top end speed, and probably grades out somewhere as a mid-round NFL pick. Franklin most often punishes teams that leave him isolated in man coverage with no safety help, using his speed and route running to get behind the secondary:
Franklin showed some great contested catch ability last year, and it’s clear that Nix trusts Franklin to come down with any jump ball lobbed his way:
Franklin isn’t known for his YAC ability, but he’s shown the ability to make nice cuts and run after the catch ability:
On the flip side, there has been one big drawback to Franklin this year, which hadn’t been an issue in prior years: drops. Per PFF, Franklin actually leads the conference in drops this season. I don’t specifically search for lowlights of players, but when I knew I wanted to talk about drops, I only had to look to their most recent game to find examples.
Here, Franklin absolutely beats the corner on the coverage and Nix throws a great ball, but Franklin just drops the should-be touchdown:
Although Troy Franklin has shown solid hands in previous seasons, he’s often making concentration drops this season:
Nix’s other favorite target is the slot receiver Tez Johnson, a transfer from Troy, and Nix’s former high school teammate. You’ll almost certainly hear this during the broadcast, but Tez Johnson is Bo Nix’s “adoptive brother,” as I’ve heard in 8 straight games now. Though not officially adopted, the Nix family (Bo Nix was obviously the high school’s quarterback, and his dad was the head coach) provided meals, stability, and a place to stay for the receiver with a tumultuous home life. Nix lobbied the Oregon coaching staff to get Tez Johnson from the transfer portal to bring him to Oregon, and it’s clear the two have a lot of chemistry on the field.
Despite his talent, he was lightly recruited out of high school (with offers from e.g. Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee, Eastern Kentucky, etc) due to his size. Nevertheless, he excelled at Troy, and PFF graded him as the 8th highest receiver in college football in 2022.
Tez Johnson is obviously fast, frequently targeted on short-to-intermediate routes (especially over the middle of the field), and skilled at picking up yards after the catch:
This is the Tez Johnson special right here:
Tez Johnson will also catch a good number of passes behind the line of scrimmage, and he does a good job of finding a lane as blocks develop to find his way into the endzone:
Another big possession receiver (also in the short-to-intermediate game, usually over the middle of the field) is the tight end, Terrance Ferguson. Oregon has been mixing it up a lot this year with tight ends (Ferguson, Patrick Herbert, Casey Kelly, or some combination thereof), but Ferguson is still Nix’s most reliable big target. Ferguson shows strong hands, even on contact:
And he also moves pretty fast for a big guy:
The other frequent tight end target is former Oregon QB Justin Herbert’s little (in age only) brother, Patrick Herbert. Although Herbert is probably used more often in pass blocking situations, he has also shown good hands despite hits:
One receiver I expected to see more of for the Ducks this year is the USC transfer WR Gary Bryant Jr. Despite his talent, he was crowded out of one of the deepest receiving rooms in the country, but he’s surprisingly playing much the same role at Oregon this year instead of the featured role I would have guessed.
Gary Bryant Jr. is a dynamic athlete—he made a name for himself on USC special teams—with incredible speed and very crisp route running. He lines up out wide most often but occasionally in the slot, and he does a great job of attacking the open spots against a zone defense. Still, for whatever reason, he just hasn’t been a huge target of Nix’s, and is most often featured when Oregon is easing off the gas pedal during a blowout (he’s definitely a favored target of Oregon backup QB Ty Thompson). Here he is gashing the Stanford defense:
We can expect to see the bulk of the throws going to WR Troy Franklin, WR Tez Johnson, and RB Bucky Irving, as Nix and the Oregon offense look to take small chunks of yards at a time to consistently drive down the field, with only the occasional big play if someone (probably Franklin) gets open deep.
Conclusion
Any way you slice it, this is going to be a very tough matchup for Cal in Autzen Stadium. They have a Heisman contender quarterback, a stellar offensive line, and NFL-caliber running backs behind that line. They’re incredibly talented and well-coached. Dan Lanning is obviously a superb defensive coach, and he’s really elevated the play on that side of the ball as well (no idea who the Oregon defensive coordinator is; I hear he’s a good recruiter or something, but I wouldn’t trust him as far as I could throw him—I also heard he was involved in some sort of injury-faking scandal a while back that made Oregon really upset, but luckily it seems Oregon fans have forgiven him for this after 10+ years of talking about it nonstop any time Oregon played… whatever that team was).
On the bright side, though, expectations are rock-bottom this game, so the only direction we can go from here is up.
Go Bears.
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Great write up Mr. Helling!
I anticipate a game that will shock the nation.
Either Nix sets a passing record of 100% completions while Ducks hold Bears to under 10@ yards on offense. Or the Bears snatch two tipped passes for a pair of pick sixes, Ott motors for several long tds and Nando completes a game winning clutch pass to Trond.