FWIW the computer rankings are generally in agreement. FPI has us at 51st in the country with an expected 5.6-6.4 record (outright favored in 6 games), and SP+ has us at 54th and going 5.1-6.9 (favored in 5). Funny thing is that both rankings are around 20 spots higher than the preseason rankings last year, but the records are almost the same… The schedule is just so rough it keeps the record down.
Bill Connelly's preview spoke highly of our transfers and noted that most of our roster will be back next year. He ended on a high note: "Still, I'm far more optimistic about Wilcox's future than I was when last season ended. If the new pieces stick, and new offensive coordinator Jake Spavital can click with one of two sophomore transfers at quarterback -- Ben Finley (NC State) or Sam Jackson V (TCU) -- then we might witness the start of a mid-tenure turnaround this fall."
Dead on accurate, unfortunately. The schedule is brutal…they can be a better team and still toss up another 4-8. There’s still too much uncertainty surrounding Wilcox as a HC to bet the over with any confidence.
Next year, however, is a potential breakout. Williams, Penix, Nix all gone, home-heavy, even year schedule…’24 gonna be the year.
Something to consider: those wins total 82 for the Pac-12. Of those 82, 54 will be intra-conference (12 teams x 9 games x 50 win/loss). This leaves 28 wins for OOC, which means only 8 losses for OOC. Look at OOC:
If I’m wrong it’ll be because the d blew ass which a lot of you are predicting but quite frankly I don’t see it and I’m not sure what you’re looking at when you predict a worse d than last year. We upgraded at every single position except lb and even there we have our captain so I’m not sure I’d bite on a failed lb corps just yet.
As for the offense I feel confident this year will see a new iteration of the wishbone with spavital and a lot of of 2 te 2 rb sets. Gimmicky? Yes of course
But more importantly…
Predictable? 1 million bazillion times less so than Musgrave.
And that’s all that really matters.
We have the best rb in the pac 12 and the best and deepest defensive front in the pac 12 and I’ll bet that gets us a win against Idaho, north Texas, asu, wazzu,, fUCLA, furd, osu, and auburn as well cuz Wilcox is pimp daddy against southern schools and also after dark.
As for the other 4 I could very easily see us picking up a win against suc because of the day and significance and/ or 1 of uo and udubb.
Again, best rb, deepest rb group, best d lineman, deepest d line group.
I think the Pac has leveled up in competition, including Cal. So no surprise seeing us tread water even if we play better football. And, as usual, our dreams live and die with the OL.
This seems about right. We should be favored in 3 (N. Texas, Idaho and Stanford), competitive in 3 (home games v. Auburn, ASU, & WSU), we will have a chance in 3 but probably a two score dog (OSU, U$C and at UCLA) and little chance on the road in 3 (Utah, WA & Or). I'd love to see the offense come together quickly but by the time it does, we may be in the tougher part of our schedule. fingers crossed.
If you are looking for a reason why this year would be different, I think it would be Spav. However my guess is that the offense takes a year to gel and is really more dangerous in ‘24. Especially with little experience at QB. But who knows! That is why they play the games. Go Bears!
I could tolerate another mediocre season under Wilcox (seriously, how much rope does this guy get? It's unprecedented) because of the tough schedule, new offensive system, new QB, rebuilding OL if it looked like we were on our way to delivering a 9 or 10 win season in 2024. But Wilcox just doesn't seem to be the guy to make it happen. We'll probably take our lumps this year and make modest improvements the year after (7 wins), and then do it all over again.
Seriously, Wilcox gets a lot of rope, and has by and large as forgiving of a fan base as you will find, because so many Cal fans are shell shocked like Lt Hurwitz in Airplane!…”thinks he’s Ethyl Merman.”
Fortunately for Wilcox’s sake, the ‘23 schedule is light on potential pitfalls…only Idaho would qualify as a bad loss.
I thought it was #1 but could be mistaken…I’m not as savvy on lines from the sequel, tho the “Over Macho Grande” court room scene remains a personal fave. “Those wounds run pretty deep…” ;-)
Actually, the season after this one is probably his best chance. QBs will have a year with Spav under their belt, and we won't have to play UCLA/USC every year. One of hardest parts of our schedule is having to play UO/UW/USC/UCLA/Furd every single year (until Furd started sucking).
You are correct in saying that Wilcox is not the guy to make it happen. The tough schedule is because other teams in the Pac 12 got much better through shrewd coaching changes and better connections to elite transfer athletes. The new offensive system is because Wilcox flubbed on two straight OC hires. The new QB is because Jack Plummer got tired of getting his ass pounded into the ground and transferred to Louisville where he will start. And the rebuilding O line is because Cal's two best O lineman - Mettaur and Coleman - jumped ship to other programs. And it looks like the defense is no longer in the top tier of the conference. It all comes down to Wilcox. Four wins will be a good season for him and will all but guarantee his return in 2024.
I'm just happy we are talking Cal football! Go Bears!
FWIW the computer rankings are generally in agreement. FPI has us at 51st in the country with an expected 5.6-6.4 record (outright favored in 6 games), and SP+ has us at 54th and going 5.1-6.9 (favored in 5). Funny thing is that both rankings are around 20 spots higher than the preseason rankings last year, but the records are almost the same… The schedule is just so rough it keeps the record down.
Bill Connelly's preview spoke highly of our transfers and noted that most of our roster will be back next year. He ended on a high note: "Still, I'm far more optimistic about Wilcox's future than I was when last season ended. If the new pieces stick, and new offensive coordinator Jake Spavital can click with one of two sophomore transfers at quarterback -- Ben Finley (NC State) or Sam Jackson V (TCU) -- then we might witness the start of a mid-tenure turnaround this fall."
When was the last time BC was bullish on the Bears? I'll take it, I guess!
Dead on accurate, unfortunately. The schedule is brutal…they can be a better team and still toss up another 4-8. There’s still too much uncertainty surrounding Wilcox as a HC to bet the over with any confidence.
Next year, however, is a potential breakout. Williams, Penix, Nix all gone, home-heavy, even year schedule…’24 gonna be the year.
Something to consider: those wins total 82 for the Pac-12. Of those 82, 54 will be intra-conference (12 teams x 9 games x 50 win/loss). This leaves 28 wins for OOC, which means only 8 losses for OOC. Look at OOC:
https://xs.pac-12.com/2023-01/2023%20Pac-12%20Football%20Schedule.png
The P5 & G5 matchups will be:
Arizona/MS State, ASU/OSU, Cal/Auburn, CU/TCU, CU/Nebraska, Oregon/TX Tech, UCLA/Coastal Carolina, USC/ND, Stanfurd/ND, Utah/Florida, Utah/Baylor, UW/Boise, UW,MSU, WSU/Wisconsin. And there is always room for an upset like Arizona/UTEP, ASU/Fresno, OSU/SDSU, Stanford/Hawaii, UCLA/SDSU, UW/Tulsa
Wow! Nice break down.
5.5 with a standard deviation of 5.5 lol
For real though I have 8-4
If I’m wrong it’ll be because the d blew ass which a lot of you are predicting but quite frankly I don’t see it and I’m not sure what you’re looking at when you predict a worse d than last year. We upgraded at every single position except lb and even there we have our captain so I’m not sure I’d bite on a failed lb corps just yet.
As for the offense I feel confident this year will see a new iteration of the wishbone with spavital and a lot of of 2 te 2 rb sets. Gimmicky? Yes of course
But more importantly…
Predictable? 1 million bazillion times less so than Musgrave.
And that’s all that really matters.
We have the best rb in the pac 12 and the best and deepest defensive front in the pac 12 and I’ll bet that gets us a win against Idaho, north Texas, asu, wazzu,, fUCLA, furd, osu, and auburn as well cuz Wilcox is pimp daddy against southern schools and also after dark.
As for the other 4 I could very easily see us picking up a win against suc because of the day and significance and/ or 1 of uo and udubb.
Again, best rb, deepest rb group, best d lineman, deepest d line group.
What the problem is?
We’ll beat UW.
Colorado not ready for Prime Time?
I think the Pac has leveled up in competition, including Cal. So no surprise seeing us tread water even if we play better football. And, as usual, our dreams live and die with the OL.
I like 7 to 8 wins
I see us beating Auburn. I don't know why, but I feel the same way now that I felt about the Ole Miss game
It because Hugh Freeze. We cannot lose. I refuse to.
FPI has us favored 🤷
This losing every year crap is getting on my nerves.
That means winning the pre-season games
That seems generous, but I will take it. Considering we are breaking in a new QB, I wouldn't have been surprised had they predicted us at 4 wins.
This seems about right. We should be favored in 3 (N. Texas, Idaho and Stanford), competitive in 3 (home games v. Auburn, ASU, & WSU), we will have a chance in 3 but probably a two score dog (OSU, U$C and at UCLA) and little chance on the road in 3 (Utah, WA & Or). I'd love to see the offense come together quickly but by the time it does, we may be in the tougher part of our schedule. fingers crossed.
If the rock fights occur only in the games were are expected to lose, and not those we are expected to win, that will be improvement in my book.
I more or less figured 4 wins expected with 6 considered a stretch goal success. That comports well with your analysis.
Because Cal.
I wish I had a good reason to disagree.
*sigh
Wilcox era (throw away 2020):
2017: 5-7
2018: 7-6
2019: 8-5
2021: 5-7
2022: 4-8
29-33 overall in those years. So hard to fault the oddsmakers!
If you are looking for a reason why this year would be different, I think it would be Spav. However my guess is that the offense takes a year to gel and is really more dangerous in ‘24. Especially with little experience at QB. But who knows! That is why they play the games. Go Bears!
More better. From 9 to 10 wins!
I could tolerate another mediocre season under Wilcox (seriously, how much rope does this guy get? It's unprecedented) because of the tough schedule, new offensive system, new QB, rebuilding OL if it looked like we were on our way to delivering a 9 or 10 win season in 2024. But Wilcox just doesn't seem to be the guy to make it happen. We'll probably take our lumps this year and make modest improvements the year after (7 wins), and then do it all over again.
Seriously, Wilcox gets a lot of rope, and has by and large as forgiving of a fan base as you will find, because so many Cal fans are shell shocked like Lt Hurwitz in Airplane!…”thinks he’s Ethyl Merman.”
Fortunately for Wilcox’s sake, the ‘23 schedule is light on potential pitfalls…only Idaho would qualify as a bad loss.
It's because he had such strong momentum before throwing it all away with Musgrave. We want to see if he can rekindle that or if it was a fluke.
Giving a rec purely for the Airplane reference! Tho I think that was the sequel no?
I thought it was #1 but could be mistaken…I’m not as savvy on lines from the sequel, tho the “Over Macho Grande” court room scene remains a personal fave. “Those wounds run pretty deep…” ;-)
Actually, the season after this one is probably his best chance. QBs will have a year with Spav under their belt, and we won't have to play UCLA/USC every year. One of hardest parts of our schedule is having to play UO/UW/USC/UCLA/Furd every single year (until Furd started sucking).
You are correct in saying that Wilcox is not the guy to make it happen. The tough schedule is because other teams in the Pac 12 got much better through shrewd coaching changes and better connections to elite transfer athletes. The new offensive system is because Wilcox flubbed on two straight OC hires. The new QB is because Jack Plummer got tired of getting his ass pounded into the ground and transferred to Louisville where he will start. And the rebuilding O line is because Cal's two best O lineman - Mettaur and Coleman - jumped ship to other programs. And it looks like the defense is no longer in the top tier of the conference. It all comes down to Wilcox. Four wins will be a good season for him and will all but guarantee his return in 2024.