Excellent article, Nick! My hottest take at the dawn of the NIL era was that it would make it harder for top programs to stash talent on their roster. And that's what we're seeing. Saban retired from Bama because he didn't want to play Moneyball, but Cignetti is thriving at IU because he has that skill.
College sports have evolved into their own professional leagues (or league, when you consider the shared salary cap between sports) with their own quirks. I think Cal can now be competitive in a way that wasn't possible under the old system (though the collapse of the Pac was quite damaging to us). And we're doing it! Can't say I have any clue what Stanford's strategy is, though.
As things evolve, we are starting to see some programs make NIL/Rev share decisions aimed at building depth, and with 13-15/16 game seasons to plan for, depth and versatility are more important than ever, even though they are harder than ever to build.
It's why the role of General Manager is so important unless you are one of the VERY few that can literally spend "whatever it takes". And even then, it's tricky. $s definitely matter, but playing time & exposure still do too, more so for some than others.
I think it's also more than just a lag, for example Solomon Williams was never on there and he was one of the earlier commits. And it just completed stopped updating for Cal early on Saturday. Assuming they'll just get it all caught up towards the end.
I'm just curious where we'd be in their rankings now if it had everyone.
There is also an issue of which rating service do you think is best when accessing talent of players leaving/coming. Given this is all subjective in ranking players, especially for positions like OL.
If you look at 247 ratings for OT, both leaving Cal, Brandon Miller (88) and Leon Bell (87) are rated higher than incoming J Lewis (86). Other OL line leaving Jordan Spasojevic-Moko (87) and Nick Marrow (86.0). That seems worrisome given how our OL has performed the last few years.
Cade Uluave at 93 is the highest rated LB in the portal on 247. Of our incoming transfer only Chase Hendricks WR is rated as high 93. As we know if would be huge for Cal to retain Cade.
While in theory the NCAA settlement should have evened the playing field for paying players, it is pretty clear that the top schools have found legal loopholes that allow them to get around this cap, by a good bit. Penn State is reported to be paying up to $30 million for players for next season, which would be about double what Cal can offer. Maybe the NCAA needs a luxury tax like in the NBA!
As always, excellent. Can you say a bit more about more about your closing comment, that while players can enter the portal until the 16th, there is no deadline for commitment. What is the practical deadline, if any? Asking for a friend so we know when we can breathe, if ever.
Well, I can tell you that last year, Cal's final accepted transfer as far as I can tell was L.J. Johnson, who committed on or around May 4th. Granted, I believe that he was a spring portal period free agent, and they eliminated the spring portal period. Still, Cal was able to add him, though I have no idea how his school registration worked. I'm guessing he finished out the semester at SMU, then registered for the fall? Meanwhile, the spring semester begins tomorrow, so who the hell knows how the academic calendar meshes with the football calendar these days.
It's sort of like going to bars in nyc. They might technically be open at 4am, but the level of the talent pool has dropped precipitously. I used to call it "scraping the bottom".
There's only a national deadline to enter the portal. It's up to each individual school when they decide to stop accepting players from it. Most players will decide early enough to get transferred and be on campus for spring ball.
Seems to me a couple things. 1) Whatever a receiving school policy may be (entrance deadlines). 2) The longer you are in the portal, the more you age like a banana (schools move on, player fickle).
If your in a good situation or on a good team.. you won't be in portal for long.
think about these cal guys. i'm sure many entered the portal to test it out, hoping to find new opportunities, more playing time, perhaps some $... and probably thought I can withdraw my name quickly and come back if it doesn't go well and recommit...
but then tosh is filling up those spots asap. he can't wait on you (unless your cade). it goes both ways.
Most portal entries are after getting an idea of what to expect, and from where, or from getting "bad" news about what to expect from where they are at.
The whole concept of remaining eligibility is, to me, of flexible value. A portal addition with three years of eligibility may end up playing for two other teams during their college career; there’s no guarantee that bringing them in buys you more than one season. Flip side: I wonder if the converse is true in that after next season we’ll reassess your value to the team and see if we want to sign you up for another campaign…..
There are some schools/athletes electing to sign multi-year deals - for one prominent example, you can look at the Xavier Lucas legal battle, where Wisconsin signed him to a 2 year deal and he attempted to leave for LSU anyway.
Whether that kind of NIL deal is in the best interests of the player, the school, both, or neither is really up to the individual details.
There are multi-year contracts, though those are likely to be breached (mainly by players, but there may be ways for schools to do it). These are a couple good articles that summarize the NCAA FAQ below:
Amazing analysis, Nick! Very insightful! Most agree the current system is out of control and unsustainable but it is also nice to see this anarchy take down the SEC!
Great article. And then there is the question of where things go from here. Is this model tenable? While fans may gripe about the lost old days (conference affiliations, players staying with the program all/most of their eligibility), the sport seems to be as popular as ever. Even with the notion that many programs now are just hiring one year mercenaries to achieve success.
Yeah these guys are way older but they are all time greats that everyone knows about. That's pretty amazing.
I don't know about Rodgers but I am very sure Marshawn will be a great host. The Rodgers comment was because his season (maybe career) just ended last night.
Yes - it was the game last night that made me think of Rodgers and how long ago he was at Cal. I totally agree Lynch would be / is a great host/ambassador.
Lupoi likely overlapped, at least one year, with both of them?
The cap is currently $20.5M, most of which will go to football and basketball (around $14M to football). Other sports will still have scholarships, just likely not revenue sharing. It will go up each year.
There are ways for players to get NIL money beyond that, but they have to be reported to NIL GO for clearance and fair market value assessment. Teams will act as agents to connect them to these opportunities, but can't pay behind the cap.
Here's some aggregate data about NIL deals that have and haven't been cleared.
That's for "RevShare", managed thru the schools. There is no cap on outside NIL, which may be working closely with the school, or almost totally independent, on a case by case basis.
I believe outside NIL still needs to be reported and approved through NIL Go. The most aggressive programs have been saying $25-$30M totals, though reading between the lines, some higher value deals were rejected.
Also, I think we have done well securing three very good running backs. Combined with the OL changes, our running game should be improved. It sure needs it.
Nick, what would we do without you? Thanks for the background and summation as well as the Cal specific update on where we are. Very helpful. It just feels like we are making good choices and bringing the players we need to the team. I am looking forward to how all this change plays out on the field.
Does this number 23 portal net performance ranking consider Cal portal players lost only when they commit to another school? If that’s the case, we will have a ways to slide when Uluave and
On3 appears to be taking this into account. From what I can tell, they're considering all players who enter the portal as outgoing, and adjust the numbers if/when they return.
On3 looks at addition and subtraction. 247 only looks at addition.
We may slide with the On3 if Cade commits but keep in mind that we'll probably be replacing a lot of the 3-star guys with other 3-star guys It doesn't take into account losing players to the portal but replenishing through HS recruitment. So we could potentially lose 2 3-star players to the portal but bring in 2 4-star HS recruits.
We should take a hard look at the Baker brothers (Broncs and Easton). Big bro in portal but taking time off for LDS mission. Broncs decommitted after Wilcox firing waiting to see what the new staff would look like.
Excellent article, Nick! My hottest take at the dawn of the NIL era was that it would make it harder for top programs to stash talent on their roster. And that's what we're seeing. Saban retired from Bama because he didn't want to play Moneyball, but Cignetti is thriving at IU because he has that skill.
College sports have evolved into their own professional leagues (or league, when you consider the shared salary cap between sports) with their own quirks. I think Cal can now be competitive in a way that wasn't possible under the old system (though the collapse of the Pac was quite damaging to us). And we're doing it! Can't say I have any clue what Stanford's strategy is, though.
stanfurd sucks
That's their vision statement!
Any program that wishes to compete will be playing within the parameters outlined. "Let's make a deal...."
As things evolve, we are starting to see some programs make NIL/Rev share decisions aimed at building depth, and with 13-15/16 game seasons to plan for, depth and versatility are more important than ever, even though they are harder than ever to build.
It's why the role of General Manager is so important unless you are one of the VERY few that can literally spend "whatever it takes". And even then, it's tricky. $s definitely matter, but playing time & exposure still do too, more so for some than others.
Best analysis I've read about how the Portal works in roster building.
Anyone else annoyed that 247 is still missing like 4 or 5 of our commits? I'm embarrassed to say how often I checked it over the weekend.
https://247sports.com/college/california/season/2026-football/transferportal/?institutionkey=24089
You are not alone brother
247 lags for Cal stuff because they don't have anyone specifically assigned to the Cal beat. The lag is annoyingly long, though.
But I'm spamming On3 with enough refreshes that I'll probably get a Cloudflare warning.
I think it's also more than just a lag, for example Solomon Williams was never on there and he was one of the earlier commits. And it just completed stopped updating for Cal early on Saturday. Assuming they'll just get it all caught up towards the end.
I'm just curious where we'd be in their rankings now if it had everyone.
Maybe it’s a good reminder to take Nick’s column’s advice and “Wait for the entire cycle to finish and judge the class as a whole.”
That's not how instant gratification works!
Also why instant gratification is usually wrong! But you are spot on, Gene, about what people want.
Thanks Nick, good piece.
There is also an issue of which rating service do you think is best when accessing talent of players leaving/coming. Given this is all subjective in ranking players, especially for positions like OL.
If you look at 247 ratings for OT, both leaving Cal, Brandon Miller (88) and Leon Bell (87) are rated higher than incoming J Lewis (86). Other OL line leaving Jordan Spasojevic-Moko (87) and Nick Marrow (86.0). That seems worrisome given how our OL has performed the last few years.
Cade Uluave at 93 is the highest rated LB in the portal on 247. Of our incoming transfer only Chase Hendricks WR is rated as high 93. As we know if would be huge for Cal to retain Cade.
While in theory the NCAA settlement should have evened the playing field for paying players, it is pretty clear that the top schools have found legal loopholes that allow them to get around this cap, by a good bit. Penn State is reported to be paying up to $30 million for players for next season, which would be about double what Cal can offer. Maybe the NCAA needs a luxury tax like in the NBA!
As always, excellent. Can you say a bit more about more about your closing comment, that while players can enter the portal until the 16th, there is no deadline for commitment. What is the practical deadline, if any? Asking for a friend so we know when we can breathe, if ever.
Well, I can tell you that last year, Cal's final accepted transfer as far as I can tell was L.J. Johnson, who committed on or around May 4th. Granted, I believe that he was a spring portal period free agent, and they eliminated the spring portal period. Still, Cal was able to add him, though I have no idea how his school registration worked. I'm guessing he finished out the semester at SMU, then registered for the fall? Meanwhile, the spring semester begins tomorrow, so who the hell knows how the academic calendar meshes with the football calendar these days.
Thanks man
It's sort of like going to bars in nyc. They might technically be open at 4am, but the level of the talent pool has dropped precipitously. I used to call it "scraping the bottom".
There's only a national deadline to enter the portal. It's up to each individual school when they decide to stop accepting players from it. Most players will decide early enough to get transferred and be on campus for spring ball.
https://www.ncsasports.org/recruiting/ncaa-transfer-rules
Seems to me a couple things. 1) Whatever a receiving school policy may be (entrance deadlines). 2) The longer you are in the portal, the more you age like a banana (schools move on, player fickle).
If your in a good situation or on a good team.. you won't be in portal for long.
think about these cal guys. i'm sure many entered the portal to test it out, hoping to find new opportunities, more playing time, perhaps some $... and probably thought I can withdraw my name quickly and come back if it doesn't go well and recommit...
but then tosh is filling up those spots asap. he can't wait on you (unless your cade). it goes both ways.
Most portal entries are after getting an idea of what to expect, and from where, or from getting "bad" news about what to expect from where they are at.
Older bananas are great for smoothies though
And banana bread.
Please don't put any players into a blender.
They're already in the portal grinder. That's enough.
Great article Nick. Thanks.
Thanks Nick, as always!
The whole concept of remaining eligibility is, to me, of flexible value. A portal addition with three years of eligibility may end up playing for two other teams during their college career; there’s no guarantee that bringing them in buys you more than one season. Flip side: I wonder if the converse is true in that after next season we’ll reassess your value to the team and see if we want to sign you up for another campaign…..
There are some schools/athletes electing to sign multi-year deals - for one prominent example, you can look at the Xavier Lucas legal battle, where Wisconsin signed him to a 2 year deal and he attempted to leave for LSU anyway.
Whether that kind of NIL deal is in the best interests of the player, the school, both, or neither is really up to the individual details.
There are multi-year contracts, though those are likely to be breached (mainly by players, but there may be ways for schools to do it). These are a couple good articles that summarize the NCAA FAQ below:
https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/governance/d1/legislation/2024-25/June2025D1Gov_PhaseThreeInstSetQuestionandAnswer.pdf
https://247sports.com/college/west-virginia/article/west-virginia-sports-nil-revenue-sharing-contract-buyouts-incentives-250921092/
https://frontofficesports.com/how-college-athlete-buyouts-could-work-in-the-revenue-sharing-era/
Amazing analysis, Nick! Very insightful! Most agree the current system is out of control and unsustainable but it is also nice to see this anarchy take down the SEC!
Great article. And then there is the question of where things go from here. Is this model tenable? While fans may gripe about the lost old days (conference affiliations, players staying with the program all/most of their eligibility), the sport seems to be as popular as ever. Even with the notion that many programs now are just hiring one year mercenaries to achieve success.
As long as the revenue streams grow, what's the impetus to change?
Uluave committed to BYU 😭
Get Marshawn Lynch and Aaron Rodgers on campus to close out the deals on top recruits.
It’s interesting to think that most of the current players were either not born or very young when these two were playing at Cal.
Yeah these guys are way older but they are all time greats that everyone knows about. That's pretty amazing.
I don't know about Rodgers but I am very sure Marshawn will be a great host. The Rodgers comment was because his season (maybe career) just ended last night.
Yes - it was the game last night that made me think of Rodgers and how long ago he was at Cal. I totally agree Lynch would be / is a great host/ambassador.
Lupoi likely overlapped, at least one year, with both of them?
I think so, all 3 of them overlapped in 2004.
As I understand it, there is no 'salary' cap?
The cap is currently $20.5M, most of which will go to football and basketball (around $14M to football). Other sports will still have scholarships, just likely not revenue sharing. It will go up each year.
There are ways for players to get NIL money beyond that, but they have to be reported to NIL GO for clearance and fair market value assessment. Teams will act as agents to connect them to these opportunities, but can't pay behind the cap.
Here's some aggregate data about NIL deals that have and haven't been cleared.
https://x.com/i/status/2010790165913256228
That's for "RevShare", managed thru the schools. There is no cap on outside NIL, which may be working closely with the school, or almost totally independent, on a case by case basis.
I believe outside NIL still needs to be reported and approved through NIL Go. The most aggressive programs have been saying $25-$30M totals, though reading between the lines, some higher value deals were rejected.
Also, I think we have done well securing three very good running backs. Combined with the OL changes, our running game should be improved. It sure needs it.
Nick, what would we do without you? Thanks for the background and summation as well as the Cal specific update on where we are. Very helpful. It just feels like we are making good choices and bringing the players we need to the team. I am looking forward to how all this change plays out on the field.
Appointment reading.
Thanks Nick!
Does this number 23 portal net performance ranking consider Cal portal players lost only when they commit to another school? If that’s the case, we will have a ways to slide when Uluave and
others commit elsewhere.
On3 appears to be taking this into account. From what I can tell, they're considering all players who enter the portal as outgoing, and adjust the numbers if/when they return.
https://www.on3.com/transfer-portal/team-rankings/football/2026/
Looking today at Cal's net portal ranking, we have fallen to 33....
https://www.on3.com/transfer-portal/team-rankings/football/2026/
On3 looks at addition and subtraction. 247 only looks at addition.
We may slide with the On3 if Cade commits but keep in mind that we'll probably be replacing a lot of the 3-star guys with other 3-star guys It doesn't take into account losing players to the portal but replenishing through HS recruitment. So we could potentially lose 2 3-star players to the portal but bring in 2 4-star HS recruits.
We should take a hard look at the Baker brothers (Broncs and Easton). Big bro in portal but taking time off for LDS mission. Broncs decommitted after Wilcox firing waiting to see what the new staff would look like.
Good point