Post-Game Thoughts: Auburn Football

After a week of hype, Cal falls flat in two phases of the game in another dispiriting defeat

Photo via @calfootball twitter

Auburn had 12 drives to try to score against the Cal defense. Auburn, a team led by a head coach with a long history of putting up excellent offensive numbers, buoyed by a bevy of high talent transfer portal additions.

Exactly ONE of those 12 drives went further than 26 yards down the field.

Let’s talk about that one drive that went further than 26 yards. In order for that drive to succeed, it required Cal to drop a potential interception. It required an insane ball adjustment from Auburn’s tight end on an underthrown dying duck of a pass on 3rd and 17. It required a pass interference in the end zone that was probably the right call but also not vastly dissimilar from a whole bunch of other moderate contact grappling that went uncalled the rest of the game. And finally, it required another insane catch on a fade from Auburn’s tight end against pretty suffocating close coverage.

All of those things were required for Auburn to score the only points that their offense truly earned on the Cal defense. It was a defensive effort that in the vast majority of circumstances would have laid the foundation for a comfortable win, perhaps even a blowout win.

Instead, for the umpteenth time in the Wilcox era, an inability to get even slightly below average play from the other two phases of the game turned a sure win into a boggling loss.

Instead, for the umpteenth time in the Wilcox era, Cal fans invested their time, energy, and faith in a head coach who hasn’t really earned that time energy, and faith. And that coach turned in a defeat that will immediately sap away most of that energy and faith.

Just like Oregon in 2018, Arizona State in 2019, Nevada in 2021, Notre Dame in 2022, or any other game where Wilcox’s Bears had an opportunity to earn fan interest and squandered it either by not showing up or by finding a way to lose a game that by all rights should have been won multiple times over.

After the semi-euphoria of continued survival as a power conference member, and the false hope of North Texas, reality sets in. Cal is still probably topping out as a team fighting just to make a low end bowl, except now we’re playing Wake Forest and Louisville and Georgia Tech rather than UCLA and Oregon State and Washington.

Offense

Efficiency Report

13 drives: 1 touchdown, 4 FGA (1-4), 4 punts, 4 turnovers (2 interceptions, 1 fumble, 1 downs), 0.8 points/drive.

If you want to be generous to the offense, you might argue that the offense hypothetically produced 22 points - one touchdown and five field goal attempts, which would be a still bad-but-not-ghastly 1.5 points/drive.

The problem, of course, is that five field goal attempts, all from 39 yards or further, is not a sure thing, which all of us already knew but found out anyway.

Everything went wrong

This was one of those offensive performances where, after the game, every Cal fan has their pet theory about what went wrong. “Inconsistent/indecisive QB play!” says one fan. “WRs didn’t get any separation!” says another. “Blocking couldn’t create any space for the RBs to operate!” one fan opines. “Auburn’s D coordinator had us overwhelmed with exotic blitzes!” bemoans another.

And, well, yes. It was a comprehensive defeat. It kinda has to be to average just 3.5 yards/play across 78 offensive snaps. There was not a unit of the offense that wasn’t controlled by its Auburn counterparts, up to and including the coaching staff.

What struck me most about the game was how Auburn was able to frequently send 5 or 6 rushers and not particularly worry about Cal’s ability to hit on a quick route to punish that aggression.

What’s hard to figure out is cause and effect. Was it bad line play that led to bad QB play? Was it bad QB play that led Auburn to stack the box and overwhelm the line? Was it lack of fear of the WRs that led to all of Auburn’s run and pass blitzes?

Contextualizing what happened

Last week, in trying to reign in my own exuberant optimism, I noted that:

North Texas is probably the worst defense Cal will face all season, and yes I’m including FCS Idaho on the list.

North Texas cemented their status as defensively wretched by allowing 46 points in a loss to Florida International, who were coming off a 2 point win over FCS Maine. Beware early season results until you get more data.

So where does Auburn fall in the probable rankings?

The Pac-12 (and Cal’s schedule) appears to be full of lots of good-but-not-great defenses. Washington, Oregon, Wazzu, and UCLA are all good, but not dominant, not stifling.

USC, Stanford game aside, is probably not very good. ASU and Stanford are not good on defense.

In short, I think only Utah and Oregon State are teams with defenses that might be clearly better than Auburn’s defense. If Auburn ended up having a better defense than either the Utes or the Beavers, I would not be shocked.

Meaning Cal’s offense may not face a test as stern as what they face don Saturday. But it’s also possible that Auburn’s defense ends up being just another good-not-great unit, like a whole bunch of other teams on Cal’s schedule, meaning that Spavital and company are going to have to figure something out FAST.

Also, Idaho just held Nevada to 4.22 yards/play and six points. Nevada, to be clear, is deeply bad this year, but still. Beware the Vandals.

The first part of the game I don’t want to talk about

14 years ago I was sitting in the south end zone, with a perfectly framed view of Jahvid Best leaping into the end zone, getting knocked off-balance while in the air, and slamming down on his upper back and head, which briefly knocked him unconscious and giving him a concussion that prematurely ended his Cal career and undoubtedly helped to cut short his professional football career.

On Saturday, I was standing in section R, with a perfect straight line view to the near side of the 23 yard line as Jaydn Ott attempted to hurdle a defender, got knocked off-balance while in the air, and slammed down on his back. I had awful flashbacks. Ott walked off the field under his own power, and I’m thankful for that, but it was another reminder of the medical cost this sport inherently asks of its participants.

Defense

Efficiency Report

12 drives: 2 touchdowns, 5 punts, 5 turnovers (1 interception, 3 fumbles, 1 downs), 1.2 points/drive.

If you, like any right-minded Cal fan, want to remove Auburn’s 3 play, 17 yard 2nd quarter touchdown drive aided by a Cal fumble, then you can chalk up the Cal defense for a 0.6 points/drive allowed mark, which would be a remarkably dominant performance against just about any opponent, let alone any non-Vanderbilt SEC team.

Auburn gave up passing the ball early

On the first possession of the game, Auburn went run-run-scramble. On the second possession of the game, Auburn went run-run-sack. And after that 2nd possession, I turned to our crew in section R and told everybody that Auburn was afraid to throw the ball.

And that turned out to be entirely true. Auburn only threw the ball on 17 out of 55 offensive snaps, and of those 17 throws only 8 were 10 or more yards down the field, and only two of which were complete . . . unless you want to count a third pass that was intercepted by Nohl Williams. Auburn asked their QBs to do very, very little, and their possible scoring output was hampered accordingly.

I’m not arguing that what happened was more Auburn-offense-bad rather than Cal-defense-good, because it takes two to tango. In fact, in many ways this was a return to the level of defensive play Cal reached during their Weaver/Kunaszyk heights of the early Wilcox era. The Bears combined the kind of consistent, tackling and big play avoidance that had been a hallmark of the Wilcox era with a level of disruption and front end control that has been less consistent.

But when the Bears get BOTH of those elements, it leads to a game like this - when the opponent is left with little to do but to run their backs into a wall over and over, and/or hope for their receivers to make crazy plays on contested passes or get a well timed PI flag.

A defense looking for answers vs. a defense that’s deep with talent

Last year, Cal spent all season rotating along their 4 man defensive front just looking for answers. Nobody provided consistent playmaking as either a run defender or pass rusher.

In 2023, after two games, Cal is still rolling with a deep roster - 20 dudes got snaps on defense, and 17 guys got at least 13 snaps out of a potential 58, with only 4 players getting every snap.

But this year, nearly everybody getting onto the field is making a play. Derek Wilkins got a sack and a run stop on 16 snaps. Ricky Correia contributed to four run stops on 16 snaps. David Reese got two pressures and a couple of run stops in 29 snaps. Myles Jernigan, Xavier Carlton, and Brett Johnson all had strong games.

Cal appears to have hit on a bunch of positive answers so far. Some dudes (Correia, Johnson) got healthy. Some dudes (Reese, Williams, Moore) were key portal additions. Some dudes (Carlton, Jernigan) are making 2nd year starter leaps. Some dudes (Wilkins, Elarms-Orr) are recruits who are making big time contributions in their first seasons as part of the defensive rotation.

Some caution should be taken - Auburn has worse quarterback play than maybe every team in the Pac-12. But their line and running game were legit last year and Cal’s front 7 was able to create all kinds of havoc anyway. This is a defense that appears to be hitting on the high end of their projection range.

Special Teams

The second part of the game I don’t want to talk about

There is no joy to be had talking about a struggling kicker. I have no insight whether Michael Luckhurst’s challenges are technical, mental, or both. On his first miss I wondered if a strong outside rush caused him to push his kick right, away from a diving Auburn defender. All of his missed kicks were long enough that you can’t be shocked over a miss but short enough that they are well within makeable range, and certainly within Luckhurst’s leg range specifically.

I will say this: For the specific style of football Justin Wilcox prefers, excellent special teams are a near must-have. Despite that, special teams play during his tenure have ranged between boringly average and disastrously problematic.

Coaching/Game Theory/Errata

Obligatory section on the refs

A non-exhaustive list of missed calls:

1. Refs incorrect blow dead Sirmon’s fumble recover on the 3rd play of the game, ultimately costing Cal 4 points.

2. Refs incorrectly assign a hold to Xavier Carlton on the final field goal of the 2nd quarter, directly costing Cal 3 points.

There are probably other things people have quibbled with - there are PI calls/no-calls that are within the margin of error for such things, plus a bunch of is-he-down-or-not fumbles going both ways, all of which are close enough that I’m not going to make a big deal out of.

But that’s a 10 point swing in a game Cal loses by 4, caused by two calls that are just objectively wrong.

At least the early whistle is a bang-bang weird play so you get how somebody could make the mistake. But I’ve watched the alleged Carlton hold at 25% speed on the highest resolution I can find, and what I see over and over is Carlton put his arm in between the rusher and the kicker, which is what we in the football community call ‘a block.’ Probably not a particularly effective technique, but more than enough when you just need to slow a guy down to get a kick off. Legal, the last time I checked.

Which QB do you choose?

One game does not represent a player. But in this singular game, Ben Finley was a dink and dunk specialist, never throwing downfield in the slightest. It put a cap on the Cal offense but was at least interception and sack averse.

Meanwhile, Sam Jackson was willing to try to throw downfield on occasion, and his legs allowed for some solid QB draws. But those downfield throws created danger (one pick) and his legs created the risk for negative plays running backwards on sacks as much as it did positive plays.

I think you go for the higher ceiling player, which is what Jake Spavital did. But I don’t think it’s a super obvious decision and I don’t know if either player is going to step up in a way that removes all doubt about who will be the starting QB the rest of the way.

What do you do when you can’t trust your offense or your kicking game?

Cal attempted SIX 4th down conversion attempts! Some (4th and 1 from iffy FG range) were obvious. One (4th and 13 on the final drive of the game, down 4 points) was mandatory.

But Cal twice faced 4th and 4 from the Auburn 34 and 37 yard lines in the 3rd quarter and when I was in the stands I genuinely wasn’t sure what made the most sense. Your offense isn’t even averaging 4 yards/play. Your kicker has the range but not the accuracy. A punt will at best gain you 30 yards of field position, and only then if your execution is impeccable.

Cal went for it both times, going 1-2. I think it was the right call . . . but bizarrely, a part of me I don’t like, wondered if it would have been better in a game like this to try to pin Auburn deep and force their lame offense to try to operate in the shadow of their own goal line.

Big Picture

Here’s the most optimistic take I can muster: Cal appears to have a potentially excellent Wilcox defense. Maybe the best in the conference this year depending on how OSU and Utah shake out. It was a dominant effort that would have led to victory in a game like this the majority of the time, and only a special teams fluke prevents this from being a big win. It’s a non-conference game which means it matter less, and Cal has shown that they have the talent to be competitive with higher end talent teams, of which Auburn is certainly one.

The pessimistic take: Cal revealed very significant offensive and special teams flaws and lost to probably the 7th best team on the schedule. Losing a game like this makes the bowl math much tougher, and most fans weren’t exactly clamoring for a season defined by struggling to get to 6 wins anyway.

And that’s just the on-the-field stuff, which ignores the fan emotional angle - that the fan base allowed itself to believe again only to get punched in the gut by a Cheez-It Bowl redux with all of the mirth and humor removed.

The only thing Cal can do to recover that fan interest is to knock off teams playing at a really high level right now. UW in two weeks on the road looks like a monumental task. Oregon State in four weeks is another opportunity, but the Beavers have been playing fundamentally perfect football.

Maybe it’s not fair to offensive coordinator Jake Spavital to fix Cal’s offense in one off-season, but that’s kinda what the situation demands. Maybe it’s not fair to special teams coordinator [file not found] to fix Cal’s kicking issues mid-season, but that’s what the situation demands.